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Articles 181 - 210 of 602
Full-Text Articles in Operational Research
Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron, Abdurrahman Sevimli
Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron, Abdurrahman Sevimli
Theses and Dissertations
The Turkish Air Force utilizes several fighter squadrons to enhance its military capabilities. One of the most critical challenges for these squadrons is generating sorties to meet the currency and demand during both peacetime and wartime. This sortie generation process directly affects the success of both training and operations. In this study, this process is assessed using a discrete event simulation. Air Force decision makers require a simulation tool to conduct “what-if” analysis on how potential changes in the environment affect an F-16 fighter squadron’s sortie generation process. Creating a usable simulation provides decision makers with a flexible tool to …
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich
A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich
Theses and Dissertations
The generation of noise caused by wind owing past a human ear is an important yet vastly understudied factor in determining the ambient noise of an environment experienced by a human observer. Sound level measurements were obtained from wind tunnel tests simulating a human experiencing wind ows at various speeds and from various directions. This data set was used in this thesis. This thesis presents a collection of models for predicting wind noise levels across a broad spectrum of frequencies based on wind speed and angle inputs. Graphical approaches are included to characterize the observed data and illustrate the models' …
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter
Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter
Theses and Dissertations
Despite the considerable academic interest in using machine learning methods to detect cyber attacks and malicious network traffic, there is little evidence that modern organizations employ such systems. Due to the targeted nature of attacks and cybercriminals’ constantly changing behavior, valid observations of attack traffic suitable for training a classifier are extremely rare. Rare positive cases combined with the fact that the overwhelming majority of network traffic is benign create an extreme class imbalance problem. Using publically available datasets, this research examines the class imbalance problem by using small samples of the attack observations to create multiple training sets that …
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
Theses and Dissertations
Fluctuations in the economy can cause military recruitment and retention plans to go awry. By focusing on various economic metrics, it is possible to anticipate changes in retention rates for specific Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). To address the challenge of maintaining a robust and mission capable Air Force, a correlation analysis is employed to determine the relationship between certain economic indicators and AFSC retention rates. As one might suspect, retention rates follow the trend of decreasing when the economy is strong. Of interest, we found two AFSCs which go against this trend. Namely, the retention rates for officers in …
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff
Theses and Dissertations
The rate setting process implemented by the USTRANSCOM J8 Program Analysis & Financial Management Directorate (USTC J8 or TCJ8) is of importance, as accurate rates yield proper and equitable recoupment of costs from customers and ensure USTC can achieve an accurate Net Operating Result (NOR) in each given year. This research sought to identify areas in which the current rate setting methodology can be improved. We initially examined the use of six months of historical cost data versus a full year of data to set rates, concluding that there is not a statistically significant difference with respect to their relative …
Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens
Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force monitors the strength of its active duty officer force and attempts to achieve the difficult challenge of employing a diversity of talent among career specialties and experience levels. This study completes two objectives, predicting future manning levels for 23 career fields, and providing a statistical framework to assess the stability of these fields. The first part of the study applies regression and survival analysis to subpopulations within the active duty Air Force officer corps, and then aggregates them by year to forecast future personnel levels. Four career fields are considered, including Acquisitions (ACQ), Logistics (LOG), Support (SPT), …
Using Mavt To Incorporate Public Perception When Choosing A Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Stephen Clement
Using Mavt To Incorporate Public Perception When Choosing A Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Stephen Clement
Theses and Dissertations
Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is …
Grabbing The Air Force By The Tail: Applying Strategic Cost Analytics To Understand And Manage Indirect Cost Behavior, Bradley C. Boehmke
Grabbing The Air Force By The Tail: Applying Strategic Cost Analytics To Understand And Manage Indirect Cost Behavior, Bradley C. Boehmke
Theses and Dissertations
Recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing the military services to develop systematic approaches to identify cost reduction opportunities and better manage financial resources. In response, the Air Force along with her sister services are developing strategic approaches to reduce front-line mission resources, commonly referred to as the Tooth . However, an underemphasized contributing source of costs are mission support activities, commonly referred to as the Tail . With the tail historically representing a sizable portion of the annual Air Force budget, strategically managing cost behavior of these indirect activities has the opportunity to generate significant cost reductions. …
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
Theses and Dissertations
Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …
A Dynamic Game On Network Topology For Counterinsurgency Applications, Jared K. Nystrom
A Dynamic Game On Network Topology For Counterinsurgency Applications, Jared K. Nystrom
Theses and Dissertations
Successful military operations are increasingly reliant upon an advanced understanding of relevant networks and their topologies. The methodologies of network science are uniquely suited to inform senior military commanders; however, there is a lack of research in the application of these methods in a realistic military scenario. This study creates a dynamic game on network topology to provide insight into the effectiveness of offensive targeting strategies determined by various centrality measures given limited states of information and varying network topologies. Improved modeling of complex social behaviors is accomplished through incorporation of a distance-based utility function. Moreover, insights into effective defensive …
The Brazilian Air Force Uniform Distribution Process: Using Lean Thinking, Statistical Process Control And Theory Of Constraints To Address Improvement Opportunities, Luciano A. Dos Santos
The Brazilian Air Force Uniform Distribution Process: Using Lean Thinking, Statistical Process Control And Theory Of Constraints To Address Improvement Opportunities, Luciano A. Dos Santos
Theses and Dissertations
In the Brazilian Air Force, all enlisted Soldiers and Corporals (corresponding to USAF ranks from Airman Basic to Senior Airman) are entitled to receive their uniforms from their assigned, respective organizations, free of charge. An important portion of the uniform s distribution process is accomplished by the Brazilian Air Force Intendancy Central Depot (ICD). This organization carries the uniform inventory and performs the selection and distribution activities, following the guidance of the Sub-directorate of Supply. ICD process performance data for the peak distribution seasons of 2012 and 2013 was collected and analyzed. Several indications of inefficiencies became apparent, exemplified by …
Value Focused Thinking Applications To Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions To Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms, David S. Scanland
Value Focused Thinking Applications To Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions To Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms, David S. Scanland
Theses and Dissertations
Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) is an emerging analytical tool with flexible applications in different target detection and classification environments, including Military Intelligence, environmental conservation, etc. Algorithms are being developed at a rapid rate, solving various related detection problems under certain assumptions. At the core of these algorithms is the concept of supervised pattern classification, which trains an algorithm to data with enough generalizability that it can be applied to multiple instances of data. It is necessary to develop a logical methodology that can weigh responses and provide an output value that can help determine an optimum algorithm. This research focuses on …
Non-Rated Air Force Line Officer Attrition Rates Using Survival Analysis, Jill A. Schofield
Non-Rated Air Force Line Officer Attrition Rates Using Survival Analysis, Jill A. Schofield
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force structures its workforce around rank structure and work specialty codes (Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs)). The challenge is to grow and manage personnel to fill a variety of skill sets at a variety of ranks over a 20-30 year planning horizon. To ensure that the missions are accomplished while adhering to congressionally-mandated force allocations, the Air Force is continually attempting to \right size its force by maintaining the correct balance of personnel in each career field. The Air Force conducts its force structure management responsibility by comparing historical attrition rates to current manpower requirements for each AFSC …
Statistical Observations Of Positioning, Navigation, And Timing In A Combat Simulation, Matthew G. Thomas
Statistical Observations Of Positioning, Navigation, And Timing In A Combat Simulation, Matthew G. Thomas
Theses and Dissertations
The Global Positioning System (GPS) has become an important asset in the lives of civilians and defense organizations. GPS uses include positioning, navigation, timing, as well as many other daily applications. With such dependence, protection against attacks on the system is paramount to continue its effectiveness. Attacks on its signal is the easiest way for enemies to degrade and harm not only everyday functioning for civilians, but a nation's defense as well. Jamming interference and spoofing are the two most frequent attacks on GPS signals. Could these two attacks cause significant effect on military operations? We use a System Effectiveness …
Improving Non-Linear Approaches To Anomaly Detection, Class Separation, And Visualization, Todd J. Paciencia
Improving Non-Linear Approaches To Anomaly Detection, Class Separation, And Visualization, Todd J. Paciencia
Theses and Dissertations
Linear approaches for multivariate data analysis are popular due to their lower complexity, reduced computational time, and easier interpretation. In many cases, linear approaches produce adequate results; however, non-linear methods may generate more robust transformations, features, and decision boundaries. Of course, these nonlinear methods present their own unique challenges that often inhibit their use. In this research, improvements to existing non-linear techniques are investigated for the purposes of providing better, timely class separation and improved anomaly detection on various multivariate datasets, culminating in application to anomaly detection in hyperspectral imagery. Primarily, kernel-based methods are investigated, with some consideration towards other …
Dynamic Bayesian Networks As A Probabilistic Metamodel For Combat Simulations, Clayton T. Kelleher
Dynamic Bayesian Networks As A Probabilistic Metamodel For Combat Simulations, Clayton T. Kelleher
Theses and Dissertations
Simulation modeling is used in many situations. Simulation meta-modeling is used to estimate a simulation model result by representing the space of simulation model responses. Metamodeling methods are particularly useful when the simulation model is not particularly suited to real-time or mean real-time use. Most metamodeling methods provide expected value responses while some situations need probabilistic responses. This research establishes the viability of Dynamic Bayesian Networks for simulation metamodeling, those situations needing probabilistic responses. A bootstrapping method is introduced to reduce simulation data requirement for a DBN, and experimental design is shown to benefit a DBN used to represent a …
Nation-Building Modeling And Resource Allocation Via Dynamic Programming, Cade M. Saie
Nation-Building Modeling And Resource Allocation Via Dynamic Programming, Cade M. Saie
Theses and Dissertations
Dynamic programming is used in many military and industrial applications to solve sequential decision making problems. This research proposes the development of a model and approach to address the application of dynamic programming in nation-building modeling. Through the creation of component indices to capture the state of operational variables: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information (PMESII), a functional form of a system of differential equations is developed to account for the interactions between the state indices and instruments of national power: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic (DIME). Solving this problem with dynamic programming provides an improved sequence which describes …
Fragment Capture Simulation For Manpads Test Arena Optimization, Michael J. Garee
Fragment Capture Simulation For Manpads Test Arena Optimization, Michael J. Garee
Theses and Dissertations
The assessment of aircraft survivability against explosive munitions is an expensive undertaking. Test articles for both aircraft and weapon are scarce due to their high costs, leading to a limited supply of test data. The development of newer, hopefully more effective weaponry and protection measures continues despite the short supply of test data. Therefore, test organizations need to explore methods for increasing the quality of test results while looking for ways to decrease the associated costs. This research focuses on the Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS) as the weapon of choice and live- re arena testing as the experimental data source. …
Enhanced Vehicle Beddown Approximations For The Improved Theater Distribution Model, Jonathan D. White
Enhanced Vehicle Beddown Approximations For The Improved Theater Distribution Model, Jonathan D. White
Theses and Dissertations
Gathering insight into the theater distribution process can be a complex task, especially when estimating potential beddown solutions. Coming up with a low cost feasible mixture of cargo vehicles that will support distribution of military personnel and goods within theater is currently a high priority for force flow analysts at USTRANSCOM. In the past, analysts used a trial and error simulation process that was iterative and time consuming. Recent research has produced the Improved Theater Distribution Model (ITDM), which presents a less time consuming, more precise method to estimate beddown allocations. Improving on this research, two linear programming methods were …
Development Of Availability And Sustainability Spares Optimization Models For Aircraft Reparables, Edmund K. W. Pek
Development Of Availability And Sustainability Spares Optimization Models For Aircraft Reparables, Edmund K. W. Pek
Theses and Dissertations
The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) conducts Logistics Support Analysis (LSA) studies in various engineering and logistics efforts on the myriad of weapon systems. In these studies, inventory spares provisioning, availability and sustainability analyses are key focus areas to ensure asset sustenance. In particular, OPUS10, a commercial-off-the-shelf software, is extensively used to conduct reparable spares optimization in acquisition programs. However, it is limited in its ability to conduct availability and sustainability analyses of time-varying operational demands, crucial in Operations & Support (O&S) and contingency planning. As the RSAF seeks force structure expansion to include more sophisticated weapon systems, the …
Vehicle Minimization For The Multimodal Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows, Benjamin A . Clapp
Vehicle Minimization For The Multimodal Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows, Benjamin A . Clapp
Theses and Dissertations
The algorithm proposed here is used for heuristic solutions for the Multimodal Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem with Unloading Capacity, Pickup and Dropoff, and Time Windows, solved so as to minimize the number of vehicles used, subject to varying objective function values for each vehicle. The MVRP is simplified and split into a routing problem and a scheduling problem. The routing problem is addressed by Dijkstra's Algorithm. This generates a new network for the second stage of the algorithm. It is assumed that the shortest path is the correct path to use, and shipments each travel unimodally. The scheduling problem is …
Aerial Refueling Simulator Validation Using Operational Experimentation And Response Surface Methods With Time Series Responses, Alexander P. Hillman
Aerial Refueling Simulator Validation Using Operational Experimentation And Response Surface Methods With Time Series Responses, Alexander P. Hillman
Theses and Dissertations
An important program in the Department of Defense is the KC-46 Supertanker. Dubbed the future of the Air Force's aerial refueling inventory, the KC-46 will replace dozens of ailing previous generation tanker aircraft. The Aerial Refueling Airplane Simulator Qualification document governs the methods by which Air Mobility Command validates its simulators, some of which will be KC-46 simulators in the near future. The methodology set forward in this thesis utilizes historical data of aircraft performance from similar air frames to gain statistical insight into the performance design space of the KC-46. Leveraging this insight, the methodology provides through a framework …
Estimating The Probability Of Being The Best System: A Generalized Method And Nonparametric Hypothesis Test, Aaron M. Lessin
Estimating The Probability Of Being The Best System: A Generalized Method And Nonparametric Hypothesis Test, Aaron M. Lessin
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis provides two new approaches for comparing competing systems. Instead of making comparisons based on long run averages or mean performance, the first paper presents a generalized method for calculating the probability that a single system is the best among all systems in a single trial. Unlike current empirical methods, the generalized method calculates the exact multinomial probability that a single system is best among competing systems. The ability to avoid time consuming empirical estimate techniques could potentially result in significant savings in both time and money when comparing alternate systems. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted comparing the …
Control Variates And Optimal Designs In Metamodeling, Joshua B. Meents
Control Variates And Optimal Designs In Metamodeling, Joshua B. Meents
Theses and Dissertations
At the heart of most modeling issues is a focus on variance reduction. Experimental designs are chosen based on both efficiency and a variety of variance based criteria. In many situations due to cost, time and availability issues it is beneficial to produce metamodels of simulations. Experimental designs for the region of operability are constructed to collect the simulation output required to construct representative metamodels. Independently, the method of control variates is a well established technique often employed to reduce variance in discrete event simulations. This thesis explores the variance reduction benefits that can be obtained by combining optimal experimental …
Evaluating Courses Of Actions At The Strategic Planning Level, Alhmet Ozdemir
Evaluating Courses Of Actions At The Strategic Planning Level, Alhmet Ozdemir
Theses and Dissertations
Like almost all real life problems, Strategic planning is a good example of a problem with more than one objective. One of the most important steps of strategic planning is to generate and evaluate the courses of actions (COA) which can fulfill the mission and vision of the organization. This is a critical process since it is impractical to start the executed COA over. In this research, value-focused thinking (VFT) is used as a decision analysis tool to assess COAs. A general model is created to select the best COA for strategic planning such as air force operation planning. To …
An Examination Of Statistical Rigor Infused Into The Kc-46 Flight Test Program, Sean C. Ritter
An Examination Of Statistical Rigor Infused Into The Kc-46 Flight Test Program, Sean C. Ritter
Theses and Dissertations
The KC-46 program is bringing on-line the replacement aircraft for the KC-135. Although not a new development program, but rather a modification program, there are extensive plans for the flight testing of the KC-46. Recent DoD emphasis mandates the use of statistical design principles for DoD test and evaluation. This project will examine the planned flight test program for KC-46 and reconsider components of that program based on principles of statistical rigor. Of particular focus will be the reliability and maintainability aspects of the flight test program. Current methodology assumes a constant failure rate in all situations, implying that the …
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Theses and Dissertations
Collateral damage presents a significant risk during air drops and airstrikes, risking citizens' lives and property, straining the relationship between the United States Air Force and host nations. This dissertation presents a methodology to determine the optimal location for making supply airdrops in order to minimize collateral damage while maintaining a high likelihood of successful recovery. A series of non-linear optimization algorithms is presented along with their relative success in finding the optimal location in the airdrop problem. Additionally, we present a quick algorithm for accurately creating the Pareto frontier in the multi-objective airstrike problem. We demonstrate the effect of …
The Multiobjective Average Network Flow Problem: Formulations, Algorithms, Heuristics, And Complexity, Jeremy D. Jordan
The Multiobjective Average Network Flow Problem: Formulations, Algorithms, Heuristics, And Complexity, Jeremy D. Jordan
Theses and Dissertations
Integrating value focused thinking with the shortest path problem results in a unique formulation called the multiobjective average shortest path problem. We prove this is NP-complete for general graphs. For directed acyclic graphs, an efficient algorithm and even faster heuristic are proposed. While the worst case error of the heuristic is proven unbounded, its average performance on random graphs is within 3% of the optimal solution. Additionally, a special case of the more general biobjective average shortest path problem is given, allowing tradeoffs between decreases in arc set cardinality and increases in multiobjective value; the algorithm to solve the average …
Rough-Cut Capacity Planning In Multimodal Freight Transportation Networks, Robert B. Hartlage
Rough-Cut Capacity Planning In Multimodal Freight Transportation Networks, Robert B. Hartlage
Theses and Dissertations
A main challenge in transporting cargo for United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) is in mode selection or integration. Demand for cargo is time sensitive and must be fulfilled by an established due date. Since these due dates are often inflexible, commercial carriers are used at an enormous expense, in order to fill the gap in organic transportation asset capacity. This dissertation develops a new methodology for transportation capacity assignment to routes based on the Resource Constrained Shortest Path Problem (RCSP). Routes can be single or multimodal depending on the characteristics of the network, delivery timeline, modal capacities, and costs. The …
The In-Transit Vigilant Covering Tour Problem Of Routing Unmanned Ground Vehicles, Huang Teng Tan
The In-Transit Vigilant Covering Tour Problem Of Routing Unmanned Ground Vehicles, Huang Teng Tan
Theses and Dissertations
The routing of unmanned ground vehicles for the surveillance and protection of key installations is modeled as a new variant of the Covering Tour Problem (CTP). The CTP structure provides both the routing and target sensing components of the installation protection problem. Our variant is called the in-transit Vigilant Covering Tour Problem (VCTP) and considers not only the vertex cover but also the additional edge coverage capability of the unmanned ground vehicle while sensing in-transit between vertices. The VCTP is formulated as a Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) with a dual set covering structure involving vertices and edges. An empirical study …