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Articles 301 - 330 of 610
Full-Text Articles in Operational Research
A Methodology For Performing Effects-Based Assessments, Benjamin A. Thoele
A Methodology For Performing Effects-Based Assessments, Benjamin A. Thoele
Theses and Dissertations
In order to bring the doctrine of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) into a fully operational capability, Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) must provide relevant insight to the commander and his planning staff. Assessments of an effects-based plan and execution must include an assessment of the effects of a campaign on the enemy in addition to an assessment of the accomplishment of friendly actions taken to achieve the desired effects. Determining the effects of a campaign requires an analysis of the dynamics of the enemy systems. EBA must be able to recognize the states of the enemy's systems as the system states change over …
Assessing Resource Value And Relationships Between Objectives In Effects-Based Operations, Robert D. Jones
Assessing Resource Value And Relationships Between Objectives In Effects-Based Operations, Robert D. Jones
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was developing techniques to calculate the value of a resource within the context of campaign objectives, to identify competing objectives, and to identify conflicting objectives to improve a commander’s ability to allocate limited resources. A methodology was developed to express a campaign’s objective hierarchy in terms of a set of desired end states for the campaign’s system of systems. Value theory was used to identify the resource's value in terms of the direct and indirect effects that are produced to achieve the campaign’s objectives. Binding resource constraints within an integer program were used to identify …
Combat Identification With Sequential Observations, Rejection Option, And Out-Of-Library Targets, Timothy W. Albrecht
Combat Identification With Sequential Observations, Rejection Option, And Out-Of-Library Targets, Timothy W. Albrecht
Theses and Dissertations
This research extends a mathematical framework to select the optimal sensor ensemble and fusion method across multiple decision thresholds subject to warfighter constraints for a combat identification (CID) system. The formulation includes treatment of exemplars from target classes on which the CID system classifiers are not trained (out-of-library classes) and enables the warfighter to optimize a CID system without explicit enumeration of classifier error costs. A time-series classifier design methodology is developed and applied, yielding a multi-variate Gaussian hidden Markov model (HMM). The extended CID framework is used to compete the HMM-based CID system against a template-based CID system. The …
Predicting The Cost Per Flying Hour For The F-16 Using Programmatic And Operational Variables, Eric M. Hawkes
Predicting The Cost Per Flying Hour For The F-16 Using Programmatic And Operational Variables, Eric M. Hawkes
Theses and Dissertations
This research analyzes operational and programmatic data from all Air National Guard and 13 of 14 active duty F-16C/D Fighter Wings (FW) from 1998 to 2004 in search of explanatory variables that influence a wing's Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH). Using data from both the Air Force Total Ownership Cost database and from the Air Force Knowledge Systems database, this research evaluates the predictive ability of the following nine explanatory variables: aircraft age, average sortie duration, MajCOM, base location, utilization rate, percent engine type, percent block, percent deployed, and previous year's CPFH, the last four of which were previously untested. …
Modeling And Analysis Of Clandestine Networks, Clinton R. Clark
Modeling And Analysis Of Clandestine Networks, Clinton R. Clark
Theses and Dissertations
Since Sept. 11, 2001, there has been great interest in the military and intelligence communities in using Social Network Analysis (SNA) to support the disruption and destruction of global terrorist networks. SNA results, however, tend to be descriptive and are limited due to the lack of advantageous properties of the relationship measures applied to the arcs in a social network. Further, SNA techniques generally focus on a single network context while real relationships are based in multiple contexts. This thesis develops a new proxy measure of pair-wise potential influence between members of a network, a Holistic Interpersonal Influence Measure (HIIM). …
Optimization Model For Base-Level Delivery Routes And Crew Scheduling, Young-Ho Cha
Optimization Model For Base-Level Delivery Routes And Crew Scheduling, Young-Ho Cha
Theses and Dissertations
In the U.S. Air Force, a Logistic Readiness Squadron (LRS) provides material management, distribution, and oversight of contingency operations. Dispatchers in the LRS must quickly prepare schedules that meet the needs of their customers while dealing with real-world constraints, such as time windows, delivery priorities, and intermittent recurring missions. Currently, LRS vehicle operation elements are faced with a shortage of manpower and lack an efficient scheduling algorithm and tool. The purpose of this research is to enhance the dispatchers' capability to handle flexible situations and produce "good" schedules within current manpower restrictions. In this research, a new scheduling model and …
A Multiple-Case Analysis Of Lean Six Sigma Deployment And Implementation Strategies, Peter M. O'Rourke
A Multiple-Case Analysis Of Lean Six Sigma Deployment And Implementation Strategies, Peter M. O'Rourke
Theses and Dissertations
Lean and Six Sigma are recent developments in continuous improvement methodology that have been popularized by several high-profile companies. The success and complementary nature of these methodologies has led to their combination into a single methodology, commonly called Lean Six Sigma or Lean Sigma. Although there is considerable literature available and many consultants involved with Lean Six Sigma, very little published research addresses the practical experiences of companies that have implemented Lean Six Sigma. The research question for this research is: How and why are certain private sector implementations of Lean Six Sigma successful or unsuccessful? The investigative questions further …
Feasibility Study Of Variance Reduction In The Thunder Campaign-Level Model, Earl M. Bednar
Feasibility Study Of Variance Reduction In The Thunder Campaign-Level Model, Earl M. Bednar
Theses and Dissertations
As an Air Force Chief of Staff endorsed topic, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency (AFSAA) requested an effective and efficient way to reduce the variance in analysis results from THUNDER. THUNDER is a large-scale discrete event simulation of campaign-level military operations and is used to examine issues involving the utility and effectiveness of air and space power in a theater-level, joint warfare context. Given the large number of stochastic components within THUNDER, results are produced with highly variable measures of effectiveness (MOEs), causing difficulties in evaluating alternative force structures, weapon systems, etc. This work responds to AFSAA's request by …
Optimal Sampling Of A Chemical Hazard Area, Jennifer R. Plourde
Optimal Sampling Of A Chemical Hazard Area, Jennifer R. Plourde
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis proposes a methodology for optimally sampling a chemical hazard area subsequent to a chemical weapons attack. The objective is to identify the maximum number of areas that no longer require protective gear for safe operations. We model the area as an undirected graph and employ network analysis techniques to provide a methodological framework for identifying an optimal sampling sequence within a fixed time limit. We propose four models that characterize the secondary vapor concentrations: i) static and deterministic, ii) static and stochastic, iii) dynamic and deterministic, and iv) dynamic and stochastic. Comparisons of the static cases and their …
Developing New Multidimensional Knapsack Heuristics Based On Empirical Analysis Of Legacy Heuristics, Yong Kun Cho
Developing New Multidimensional Knapsack Heuristics Based On Empirical Analysis Of Legacy Heuristics, Yong Kun Cho
Theses and Dissertations
The multidimensional knapsack problem (MKP) has been used to model a variety of practical optimization and decision-making applications. Due to its combinatorial nature, heuristics are often employed to quickly find good solutions to MKPs. While there have been a variety of heuristics proposed for the MKP, and a plethora of empirical studies comparing the performance of these heuristics, little has been done to garner a deeper understanding of heuristic performance as a function of problem structure. This dissertation presents a research methodology, empirical and theoretical results explicitly aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of heuristic procedural performance as a function …
An Analysis Into The Effectiveness Of Aircraft Maintenance Under The Combat Wing Structure, Derrick R. Barthol
An Analysis Into The Effectiveness Of Aircraft Maintenance Under The Combat Wing Structure, Derrick R. Barthol
Theses and Dissertations
Organizational structure builds the foundation from which organizations operate. To gain full potential of structural efficiencies in the current operating environment, public and private firms are continually modifying their organizational structure. The U.S. Air Force is no different and underwent its most recent reorganization in the fall of 2002 replacing the post-Gulf War format of the previous decade. Air Force leadership needs to understand how well the current structure is performing at achieving its intended objectives. This research investigates the effectiveness of the recent change to Air Force organizational structure on aircraft maintenance performance through an analysis of aircraft maintenance …
Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon
Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon
Theses and Dissertations
Many countries realize the importance of the retention of qualified military personnel, and have tried to solve this problem using various methods. Nevertheless, the effects of those methods have not been determined or proven yet. The military retention problem is closely related to each individual's separation decision from the military. The characteristics of this decision are multi-objective and highly subjective. Accordingly, the effectiveness of various methods is heavily dependant on the value set of each individual. Decision Analysis (DA) using Value Focused Thinking (VFT) can be an excellent process to deal with this decision. Also, the data can reflect the …
Effects Of Uncertainty On Real World Aerospace Mission Data, Steven J. Barosko
Effects Of Uncertainty On Real World Aerospace Mission Data, Steven J. Barosko
Theses and Dissertations
Uncertainty is an age old element of warfare. How does one measure success or failure on the battlefield? This thesis explores the effect of uncertainty on real world aerospace mission data from Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Sources of uncertainty are identified during data preparation and the effects of uncertainty are investigated using multivariate analysis techniques. Two distinct cases are analyzed: one case with a low level of uncertainty in predicting whether or not a mission is pre-planned or alert generated, and another case with a high level of uncertainty in predicting whether or not a mission is a success or …
Age Replacement And Service Rate Control Of Stochastically Degrading Queues, Patrick S. Chapin
Age Replacement And Service Rate Control Of Stochastically Degrading Queues, Patrick S. Chapin
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis considers the problem of optimally selecting a periodic replacement time for a multiserver queueing system in which each server is subject to degradation as a function of the mean service rate and a stochastic and dynamic environment. Also considered is the problem of optimal service rate selection for such a system. In both cases, the performance metric is the long-run average cost rate. Analytical expressions are obtained, in terms of Laplace transforms, for the nonlinear objective functions, necessitating the use of numerical Laplace transform inversion to evaluate candidate solutions in conjunction with standard numerical algorithms. Due to the …
An Investigation Of The Optimal Sensor Ensemble For Sensor Fusion, Paul P. Clemans
An Investigation Of The Optimal Sensor Ensemble For Sensor Fusion, Paul P. Clemans
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis continues the research begun by Storm, Bauer and Oxley in 2003 into the fusion of classifiers. It examines the fusion of up to three correlated classifiers using three different fusion techniques. The overall objective was to determine the optimal ensemble of classifiers to maximize the expected classification accuracy. The ISOC fusion method (Haspert, 2000), the ROC Within fusion method (Oxley and Bauer, 2002) and a Probabilistic Neural Network were the three fusion techniques employed in these set of experiments. Performance of the classifiers and the fusion methods is measured via ROC curves. Two possible configurations of feature correlations …
Agent Based Simulation Seas Evaluation Of Dodaf Architecture, Gregory V. Destefano
Agent Based Simulation Seas Evaluation Of Dodaf Architecture, Gregory V. Destefano
Theses and Dissertations
With Department of Defense (DoD) weapon systems being deeply rooted in the command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) structure, it is necessary for combat models to capture C4ISR effects in order to properly assess military worth. Unlike many DoD legacy combat models, the agent based model System Effectiveness and Analysis Simulation (SEAS) is identified as having C4ISR analysis capabilities. In lieu of requirements for all new DoD C4ISR weapon systems to be placed within a DoD Architectural Framework (DoDAF), investigation of means to export data from the Framework to the combat model SEAS began. Through operational, system, …
An Investigation Of The Effects Of Correlation, Autocorrelation, And Sample Size In Classifier Fusion, Nathan J. Leap
An Investigation Of The Effects Of Correlation, Autocorrelation, And Sample Size In Classifier Fusion, Nathan J. Leap
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis extends the research found in Storm, Bauer, and Oxley, 2003. Data correlation effects and sample size effects on three classifier fusion techniques and one data fusion technique were investigated. Identification System Operating Characteristic Fusion (Haspert, 2000), the Receiver Operating Characteristic Within Fusion method (Oxley and Bauer, 2002), and a Probabilistic Neural Network were the three classifier fusion techniques; a Generalized Regression Neural Network was the data fusion technique. Correlation was injected into the data set both within a feature set (autocorrelation) and across feature sets for a variety of classification problems, and sample size was varied throughout. Total …
Modeling And Simulation Of The Military Intelligence Process, Carl R. Pawling
Modeling And Simulation Of The Military Intelligence Process, Carl R. Pawling
Theses and Dissertations
There is concern within U.S. space and intelligence organizations that the current Tasking, Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination processes may be insufficient to support current and future Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance systems. As part of a larger intelligence process, more detailed analysis becomes critical to determine what portions need to be improved. This analysis can be accomplished by simulation, which is appropriate due to the complexity of the process and the ability to compare variations in the process. We construct a high level model of a generalized military intelligence process based in part on the Intelligence Cycle outlined in Joint Publications. …
Modeling And Analysis Of Post-Conflict Reconstruction, Damon B. Richardson
Modeling And Analysis Of Post-Conflict Reconstruction, Damon B. Richardson
Theses and Dissertations
The forces at play in reconstruction operations are a complex system of time phased interlocking cause and effect relationships that are not thoroughly understood. A model capable of capturing the general dynamics involved in post-conflict reconstruction would provide insight to decision makers regarding potential policy alternatives. This research effort demonstrates the viability of using systems dynamics modeling techniques to simulate the establishment of public order and safety in a post-conflict reconstruction operation (Phase IV operations). A high level generic framework is developed that can be used as a general template for modeling post-conflict reconstruction. It is then demonstrated with a …
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Theses and Dissertations
When a Decision Maker is asked to provide his or her preferences, the response represents a snapshot in time. While their preference structure elicited at any given moment may represent their revealed preferences at that point in time, it may change over time. These changing preferences over time represent ambiguity in the decision maker's preferences. Other sources of ambiguity may exist. One weakness of many decision analysis techniques today is the inability to incorporate ambiguity into the basic decision model. The existence of the problem has been known and commented on for many years. This research addresses that problem. It …
The Air Warrior's Value Of National Security Space, John D. Loftis
The Air Warrior's Value Of National Security Space, John D. Loftis
Theses and Dissertations
The 2001 Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization recommended that U.S. efforts in national security space be elevated to the highest national security priority. With more focused high-level attention on national security space decisions a measure that captures and quantities the value of space capabilities to combat operations professionals is desired. This thesis models what the air warriors desire from space assets in combat. A Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) approach was used to elicit values from air combat experts with operational experience. An initial Gold Standard value model was constructed and validated by …
Auto Carrier Transporter Loading And Unloading Improvement, Brian M. Miller
Auto Carrier Transporter Loading And Unloading Improvement, Brian M. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
Thousands of vehicles (cars, trucks and vans) are transported every day from one location to another. These vehicles are moved around the country on Auto Carrier Transports (ACTs). Delivering these vehicles involves large quantities of time, money and energy. Any reduction in time and energy will result in a significant savings of money. The intent of this research is to develop an algorithm to solve the Auto Carrier Transport Pickup and Delivery Problem. In doing so, the focus is to limit the total times vehicles are placed on and taken off the carrier, otherwise known as the number of loads, …
Assessing The Treatment Of Airborne Tactical High Energy Lasers In Combat Simulations, Maurice C. Azar
Assessing The Treatment Of Airborne Tactical High Energy Lasers In Combat Simulations, Maurice C. Azar
Theses and Dissertations
In March 2000, the High Energy Laser Executive Review Panel presented the Department of Defense Laser Master Plan, which reported that HEL weapons are ready for offensive and defensive applications. One candidate platform capable of performing some of the reported applications is the Advanced Tactical Laser (ATL), an Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration program which places a high energy laser weapon on a tactical aircraft, such as the V-22, C-130, or H-47. A way of assessing the utility of a new weapon system and the benefits of its inclusion in the force structure is the use of combat models. This research …
Search Theory And U-Boats In The Bay Of Biscay, Ronald Gregory Carl
Search Theory And U-Boats In The Bay Of Biscay, Ronald Gregory Carl
Theses and Dissertations
Threats to our nation's resources and forces are becoming increasingly lethal and mobile. Therefore, our ability to locate and interdict these threats is more important than ever. Search theory is one tool that is vital to countering the increasing threat. This research presents a multi-agent simulation, built around the Allied search for U-boats in the Bay of Biscay during World War II, which extends several classic search theory algorithms. Comparison of techniques is based on the effectiveness of finding high- valued, mobile assets. A JAVA-based multi-agent simulation model is designed, built and tested, and used to demonstrate the existence of …
Simulation Of Autonomic Logistics System (Als) Sortie Generation, Paul D. Faas
Simulation Of Autonomic Logistics System (Als) Sortie Generation, Paul D. Faas
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force needs tools for analysis and evaluation of new logistic operational concepts. The purpose of this research was to conflict a discrete event simulation model of the aircraft sortie generation process to permit what-if analyses of these concepts. The current Air Force logistics operations system is reactive in nature meaning that after the aircraft detects a part failure, the maintenance person must perform fault isolation procedures and then steps are taken to repair or replace the faulty item. The Autonomic Logistics System (ALS) concept changes the reactive process into a proactive one with the employment of technologies such …
Optimum Component Design In N-Stange Series Systems To Maximize The Reliability Under Budget Constraint, Huseyin Gozebe
Optimum Component Design In N-Stange Series Systems To Maximize The Reliability Under Budget Constraint, Huseyin Gozebe
Theses and Dissertations
This research is intended to find a new heuristic for solving the reliability optimization of n-stage series system. The new heuristic will make the initial system design and use redundancy to improve system reliability level. The limited capacity of common optimization tools requires the new heuristic to be coded in VBA programming language. Moreover, the known reliability optimization heuristic, marginal analysis will be coded so that the difference between two heuristics can be seen and design engineers can use the best result in their applications.
Analysis Of Scheduling Policies For A M/G/I Queue With Rework, Jennifer Hendrixson
Analysis Of Scheduling Policies For A M/G/I Queue With Rework, Jennifer Hendrixson
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis analyzes a multi-class M/G/1 priority queueing system in which distinct job types require one service cycle and, with non-zero probability, require a second service cycle. The main objective is to find a new heuristic scheduling policy that minimizes the long-run expected holding and preemption costs. Arrival rates, service rates, and the probability of undertaking second service are all class specific. A mean value analysis (MVA) approach was employed to derive the long- run mean time in queue for each job type under each policy, thereby providing the appropriate cost equations. Numerical experiments suggest that the preemptive resume scheduling …
Using Neural Networks For Estimating Cruise Missile Reliability, Donald L. Hoffman
Using Neural Networks For Estimating Cruise Missile Reliability, Donald L. Hoffman
Theses and Dissertations
ACC believes its current methodology for predicting the reliability of its Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) and Advanced Cruise Missile (ACM) stockpiles could be improved. They require a predictive model that delivers the best possible 24-month projection of cruise missile reliability using existing data sources, collection methods and software. It should be easily maintainable and developed to allow a layperson to enter updated data and receive an accurate reliability prediction. The focus of this thesis is to improve upon free flight reliability, although the techniques could also be applied to the captive carry portion of the missile reliability equation. The …
Planning Coverage Of Points Of Interest Via Multiple Imaging Surveillance Assets: A Multi-Model Approach, Sarah E. Jackson
Planning Coverage Of Points Of Interest Via Multiple Imaging Surveillance Assets: A Multi-Model Approach, Sarah E. Jackson
Theses and Dissertations
For the United States to maintain information superiority, it is necessary to have a means of allocating intelligence-gathering assets to collect information on particular points of interest. In today's geopolitical environment, however, the number of points of interest is growing rapidly, whereas the number of available assets is not. To aid in maintaining information superiority, this research explores the use of a Multi-Modal Goal Programming Resource Constrained Project Scheduling approach for allocating imaging surveillance assets (land, air, sea, and space) to a set of points of interest for a given time period. The multiple objectives of this formulation are to …
Physical Fitness And The Expeditionary Air Force, Elizabeth T. Lewis
Physical Fitness And The Expeditionary Air Force, Elizabeth T. Lewis
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force is constantly evolving. With the many changes and the Expeditionary Air Force structure put in place, it is more important now than ever that the Air Force has a physical fitness program to keep its members healthy and productive. By doing this, it can ensure success in completing the Air Force mission while keeping the organization at the highest level of readiness possible. This thesis looks at what the Air Force values in having a fitness program. These values are taken from Air Force doctrine and related instructions. Using these values, fitness programs can be evaluated to …