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Articles 151 - 180 of 609
Full-Text Articles in Operational Research
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Theses and Dissertations
Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …
Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero
Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …
Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger
Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger
Theses and Dissertations
United States Coast Guard District 14 is responsible for the execution of eleven statutory missions across the Pacific region. Despite having the largest geographic area of responsibility (AOR), District 14 has command of among the fewest resources to accomplish these missions. When search and rescue (SAR) emergencies occur, these events take immediate priority because the ability to rapidly coordinate available assets can be the difference between saving or losing a life. Using historic records of SAR incidents for District 14, we leverage an approach called the stochastic zonal distribution model to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in emergency rates and response strategies …
Real-Time Heuristics And Metaheuristics For Static And Dynamic Weapon Target Assignments, Alexander G. Kline
Real-Time Heuristics And Metaheuristics For Static And Dynamic Weapon Target Assignments, Alexander G. Kline
Theses and Dissertations
The problem of targeting and engaging individual missiles (targets) with an arsenal of interceptors (weapons) is known as the weapon target assignment problem. This problem has been well-researched since the seminal work in 1958. There are two distinct categories of the weapon target assignment problem: static and dynamic. The static weapon target assignment problem considers a single instance in which a known number of incoming missiles is to be engaged with a finite number of interceptors. By contrast, the dynamic weapon target assignment problem considers either follow on engagement(s) should the first engagement(s) fail, a subsequent salvo of incoming missiles, …
Evaluating Annual Fixed Wing Maintenance Costs, Kirsten Bunecke, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brett A. Bush
Evaluating Annual Fixed Wing Maintenance Costs, Kirsten Bunecke, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brett A. Bush
Faculty Publications
This article serves two purposes: first, to empirically model the annual percentage increase of operations and support (O&S) costs for fixed wing aircraft; and second, to place into the archival realm another reference for other researchers to consider when investigating other O&S topics. For this study of 21 different airframes grouped together at the Mission- Design Series (MDS), maintenance subcategories 3.1 Consumable Materials and Repair Parts, 3.2 Depot Level Repairables (DLR), and 3.4 Depot Maintenance accounted for an average 91.5% of annual organic maintenance costs. For contractor-maintained MDS, subcategory 3.7, Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) accounted for 96.6% of annual maintenance …
Operational Squadron Scheduling, Khaled A. Almannaei
Operational Squadron Scheduling, Khaled A. Almannaei
Theses and Dissertations
The 28th Operational Weather Squadron (28th OWS) is responsible for producing and disseminating mission planning and execution weather analyses and forecasts. The squadron must prepare schedules that meet the needs of their mission while dealing with real-world constraints such as time windows, task priorities, and intermittent recurring missions. The 28th OWS's manning consists of active duty, deployed in-place, reserve, civilian and contract personnel. In this research, a scheduling model and algorithm are provided as an approach to crew scheduling for the 28th Operational Weather Squadron. Scheduling in the 28th OWS is complex and can be time consuming. This model will …
Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer
Generating Strong Diversity Of Opinions: Agent Models Of Continuous Opinion Dynamics, Christopher W. Weimer
Theses and Dissertations
Opinion dynamics is the study of how opinions in a group of individuals change over time. A goal of opinion dynamics modelers has long been to find a social science-based model that generates strong diversity -- smooth, stable, possibly multi-modal distributions of opinions. This research lays the foundations for and develops such a model. First, a taxonomy is developed to precisely describe agent schedules in an opinion dynamics model. The importance of scheduling is shown with applications to generalized forms of two models. Next, the meta-contrast influence field (MIF) model is defined. It is rooted in self-categorization theory and improves …
Multi-Level Multi-Objective Programming And Optimization For Integrated Air Defense System Disruption, Aaron M. Lessin
Multi-Level Multi-Objective Programming And Optimization For Integrated Air Defense System Disruption, Aaron M. Lessin
Theses and Dissertations
The U.S. military's ability to project military force is being challenged. This research develops and demonstrates the application of three respective sensor location, relocation, and network intrusion models to provide the mathematical basis for the strategic engagement of emerging technologically advanced, highly-mobile, Integrated Air Defense Systems. First, we propose a bilevel mathematical programming model for locating a heterogeneous set of sensors to maximize the minimum exposure of an intruder's penetration path through a defended region. Next, we formulate a multi-objective, bilevel optimization model to relocate surviving sensors to maximize an intruder's minimal expected exposure to traverse a defended border region, …
The Military Inventory Routing Problem: Utilizing Heuristics Within A Least Squares Temporal Differences Algorithm To Solve A Multiclass Stochastic Inventory Routing Problem With Vehicle Loss, Ethan L. Salgado
Theses and Dissertations
Military commanders currently resupply forward operating bases (FOBs) from a central location within an area of operations mainly via convoy operations in a way that closely resembles vendor managed inventory practices. Commanders must decide when and how much inventory to distribute throughout their area of operations while minimizing soldier risk. Technology currently exists that makes utilizing unmanned cargo aerial vehicles (CUAVs) for resupply an attractive alternative due to the dangers of utilizing convoy operations. Enemy actions in wartime environments pose a significant risk to a CUAV's ability to safely deliver supplies to a FOB. We develop a Markov decision process …
Methods To Support The Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, And Modeling Inadequacies, Neil C. Ranly
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force relies upon information production activities to gain insight regarding uncertainties affecting important system configuration and in-mission task execution decisions. Constrained resources that prevent the fulfillment of every information production request, multiple information requestors holding different temporal-sensitive objectives, non-constant marginal value preferences, and information-product aging factors that affect the value-of-information complicate the management of these activities. This dissertation reviews project selection research related to these issues and presents novel methods to address these complications. Quantitative experimentation results demonstrate these methods’ significance.
An Open Source Approach To Social Media Data Gathering, Anthony J. Kallhoff
An Open Source Approach To Social Media Data Gathering, Anthony J. Kallhoff
Theses and Dissertations
Modern usage of social media affords the military intelligence and analytic communities novel approaches to gather information. However, the tools and resources to develop these methodologies are still maturing. Furthermore, current data acquisition tools are not available to the DoD for all social media platforms. This thesis addresses a small subset of this problem by developing an open source methodological approach to collect and manage data from a popular social media site that has previously been inaccessible to defense intelligence organizations. This approach was operationalized via the R package called instaExtract, and an exemplar analysis was performed to demonstrate its …
The Developmental Test Scheduling Problem, Joseph E. Schoenbeck
The Developmental Test Scheduling Problem, Joseph E. Schoenbeck
Theses and Dissertations
Developmental testing of aircraft systems in the United States Air Force requires a complex set of resources for each test. The optimal scheduling of those resources is the job of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base. With more than 20 different Combined Task Forces requesting resources for roughly 300 flying missions each week, manual scheduling is a difficult task. The current process takes a team of schedulers several days to get a workable result from which they can start tailoring the final schedule. While concepts and techniques can be taken from industry scheduling problems, the body of …
Wavelet Anova Bisection Method For Identifying Simulation Model Bias, Andrew D. Atkinson, Raymond R. Hill, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., G. Geoffrey Vining, Edward D. White, Eric Chicken
Wavelet Anova Bisection Method For Identifying Simulation Model Bias, Andrew D. Atkinson, Raymond R. Hill, Joseph J. Pignatiello Jr., G. Geoffrey Vining, Edward D. White, Eric Chicken
Faculty Publications
High-resolution computer models can simulate complex systems and processes in order to evaluate a solution quickly and inexpensively. Many simulation models produce dynamic functional output, such as a set of time-series data generated during a process. These computer models require verification and validation (V&V) to assess the correctness of these simulations. In particular, the model validation effort evaluates if the model is an appropriate representation of the real-world system that it is meant to simulate. However, when assessing a model capable of generating functional output, it is useful to learn more than simply whether the model is valid or invalid. …
Development And Investigation Of An Air Transportation Operations Safety Climate Scale, Matthew D. Roberts
Development And Investigation Of An Air Transportation Operations Safety Climate Scale, Matthew D. Roberts
Theses and Dissertations
Safety is of critical importance in many industries, and the US Air Force is no exception. Since 2005, the US Air Force has experienced more than 119 on-duty air and ground fatalities as well as 520 off-duty ground fatalities. One of the more dangerous environments in the U.S. Air Force and the civilian industry is air transportation operations where the fatal injury rate is higher than the national average. However, peer-reviewed safety research focusing on air transportation operations is practically non-existent, both in the military and civilian context. Therefore, safety research that helps us better understand how to shape safety …
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Faculty Publications
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting. Design/methodology/approach: Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper. Findings: This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker. Research limitations/implications: This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.
Practical implications: Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals.
Real-Time Heuristic Algorithms For The Static Weapon-Target Assignment Problem, Alexander G. Kline
Real-Time Heuristic Algorithms For The Static Weapon-Target Assignment Problem, Alexander G. Kline
Theses and Dissertations
The problem of targeting and engaging individual missiles (targets) with an arsenal of interceptors (weapons) is known as the weapon target assignment problem. As many solution techniques are based upon a transformation of the objective function, their final solutions rarely produce optimal solutions. We propose a nonlinear branch and bound algorithm to provide the first optimization approach to the untransformed problem found in the literature. Further, we propose a new heuristic based upon the branch and bound algorithm which dominates other heuristics explored in optimality gap. We also propose a heuristic based upon the optimal solution to the quiz problem …
On Proportionate And Truthful International Alliance Contributions: An Analysis Of Incentive Compatible Cost Sharing Mechanisms To Burden Sharing, William N. Caballero
On Proportionate And Truthful International Alliance Contributions: An Analysis Of Incentive Compatible Cost Sharing Mechanisms To Burden Sharing, William N. Caballero
Theses and Dissertations
Burden sharing within an international alliance is a contentious topic, especially in the current geopolitical environment, that in practice is generally imposed by a central authority's perception of its members' abilities to contribute. Instead, we propose a cost sharing mechanism such that burden shares are allocated to nations based on their honest declarations of the alliance's worth. Specifically, we develop a set of multiobjective nonlinear optimization problem formulations that respectively impose Bayesian Incentive Compatible (BIC), Strategyproof (SP), and Group Strategyproof (GSP) mechanisms based on probabilistic inspection efforts and deception penalties that are budget balanced and in the core. Any feasible …
Survival Analysis Of Us Air Force Officer Retention Rate, Courtney N. Franzen
Survival Analysis Of Us Air Force Officer Retention Rate, Courtney N. Franzen
Theses and Dissertations
Personnel retention is a matter of great interest in the private and public sectors. In the public sector--specifically the US Air Force--maintaining appropriate retention levels of rated officers is paramount as these officers are the backbone of the Air Force’s mission. As part of the effort to ensure proper retention rates for rated officers, retention models are created by the Air Force Personnel division that assist in predicting future retention patterns and accession needs. The techniques for creating these models, known as the "sustainment line," involve utilizing average retention percentages obtained from historical data. In this study, more statistical-based methods …
Using Markov Decision Processes With Heterogeneous Queueing Systems To Examine Military Medevac Dispatching Policies, Phillip R. Jenkins
Using Markov Decision Processes With Heterogeneous Queueing Systems To Examine Military Medevac Dispatching Policies, Phillip R. Jenkins
Theses and Dissertations
major focus of the Military Health System is to provide efficient and timely medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) to battlefield casualties. Medical planners are responsible for developing dispatching policies that dictate how aerial military MEDEVAC units are utilized during major combat operations. The objective of this research is to determine how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC units in response to 9-line MEDEVAC requests to maximize MEDEVAC system performance. A discounted, infinite horizon Markov decision process (MDP) model is developed to examine the MEDEVAC dispatching problem. The MDP model allows the dispatching authority to accept, reject, or queue incoming requests based on the request's …
2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model, Bret N. Witham
2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model, Bret N. Witham
Theses and Dissertations
The 2016 NDAA authorized changes to the military retirement system transitioning from the legacy High-3 defined benefit annuity to the new Blended Retirement System (BRS). In exchange for a reduced defined benefit annuity, the BRS incorporates automatic and matching contributions to the member’s Thrift Savings Plan and a continuation payment offered at 12 years of service. In 2018,service members with less than 12 years of service will make an irrevocable decision between the two retirement systems. This research effort addresses the problem by developing a decision analysis model incorporating up to 27 different input variables. Service members can use the …
Application Of Enlisted Force Retention Levels And Career Field Stability, Jamie T. Zimmermann
Application Of Enlisted Force Retention Levels And Career Field Stability, Jamie T. Zimmermann
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force’s success is influenced by the manpower it has. The end-strength is Congressionally mandated. Predicting personnel retention is critical to the operations of the military. Over 10 years ago, the Air Force produced enlisted career field sustainment lines based on manning. If a career field was over manned the authorizations were decreased, likewise if a career field was under manned the authorizations were increased. The constant fluctuation of manning caused bathtubs to be created and requirements to go unfilled. Currently, the Air Force produces enlisted career field sustainment lines based on the 5-year historical retention rates. This method …
An Investigation Into The Indicators Of A Successful Total Force Association, Greg E. Hoyt
An Investigation Into The Indicators Of A Successful Total Force Association, Greg E. Hoyt
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force, since adopting and subsequently developing the Total Force concept in the early 1970s, has not thoroughly outlined clear objectives by which the progress toward and realization of this strategic vision should be defined and measured. Without clear definition, direction, and method of evaluation, the ability to credibly claim any subsequent successes or failures in the pursuit of this vision become vulnerable to challenge. Indeed, the mere claim that a single, clear vision exists may be challenged. The Total Force concepts degree of success has, on multiple occasions through its history, been critiqued with the most recent instance …
Simulation Modeling And Analysis Of Deployed F-16 Operations And Logistics Support, Gregory D. Potts Ii
Simulation Modeling And Analysis Of Deployed F-16 Operations And Logistics Support, Gregory D. Potts Ii
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis is to reinforce and build upon past efforts identifying and demonstrating the need to better represent logistic capabilities and constraints within the realm of wargaming, war planning, and other analyses requiring the modeling of Air Force combat operations. We develop a framework for the porting of relevant logistic information and requirements from a reliable data source (LCOM- ATK) into a discrete event simulation environment (SIMIO), providing a simulation model for enhanced and robust analyses. The simulation we create explicitly reflects (for a selected subset of Work Unit Codes) the maintenance manpower, resources, and parts required …
Common Support Equipment And Its Impact On Aircraft Availability, Jason M. Leighton
Common Support Equipment And Its Impact On Aircraft Availability, Jason M. Leighton
Theses and Dissertations
The ability of military aircraft maintenance personnel to prepare aircraft for flight depends not only on the technical ability and availability of replacement parts, but also on access to serviceable support equipment. While the general relationship between support equipment failures and aircraft availability is understood, the struggle to quantify that relationship makes targeted support equipment replacement or quantity authorization increases difficult. Tight budgets and aging equipment further complicate the task of keeping serviceable support equipment assets in the hands of maintainers. We identify key pieces of support equipment which may affect aircraft availability and other metrics and investigate the associated …
An Examination Of Commercial Motor Vehicle Hours Of Service Safety Regulation, Jason R. Anderson
An Examination Of Commercial Motor Vehicle Hours Of Service Safety Regulation, Jason R. Anderson
Theses and Dissertations
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMSCA) stipulates Hours of Service (HOS) regulations in order to minimize or eliminate fatigued truck driving, a major cause of truck-related accidents. This research examines the efficacy of HOS with three unique research approaches: 1) a typology classification model to indicate differences in HOS regulation from other safety regulations, 2) an exhaustive enumeration method utilizing the theoretical foundation of perishable inventory theory, and 3) a statistical analysis on accidents caused by or involving truck drivers. This research provides insight into similar Air Force Instructions regarding flight-time restrictions for pilots, which attempt to prevent flying …
An Advanced Tabu Search Approach To The Dynamic Airlift Loading Problem, August G. Roesener, J. Wesley Barnes
An Advanced Tabu Search Approach To The Dynamic Airlift Loading Problem, August G. Roesener, J. Wesley Barnes
Faculty Publications
This research effort presents a tabu search algorithm to solve the dynamic airlift loading problem. Given a set of palletized cargo items which require transportation from an aerial port of embarkation to an aerial port of debarkation within a pre-specified time frame, the dynamic airlift loading problem seeks to partition the pallets into aircraft loads, select an efficient and effective subset of aircraft from available aircraft, and assign the pallets to allowable positions on those aircraft. The dynamic airlift loading problem differs from many partitioning and packing problems described in the literature because, in addition to spatial constraints, factors such …
Using Approximate Dynamic Programming To Solve The Stochastic Demand Military Inventory Routing Problem With Direct Delivery, Ethan L. Salgado
Using Approximate Dynamic Programming To Solve The Stochastic Demand Military Inventory Routing Problem With Direct Delivery, Ethan L. Salgado
Theses and Dissertations
A brigade combat team must resupply forward operating bases (FOBs) within its area of operations from a central location, mainly via ground convoy operations, in a way that closely resembles vendor managed inventory practices. Military logisticians routinely decide when and how much inventory to distribute to each FOB. Technology currently exists that makes utilizing cargo unmanned aerial vehicles (CUAVs) for resupply an attractive alternative due to the dangers of utilizing convoy operations. However, enemy actions, austere conditions, and inclement weather pose a significant risk to a CUAV's ability to safely deliver supplies to a FOB. We develop a Markov decision …
Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations, Thomas M. Dickey
Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations, Thomas M. Dickey
Theses and Dissertations
This research proposes a methodology to develop models for the greater understanding of the application of the economic instrument of national power through a selection of factors that define the economic condition of a country. The major components of an economy are identified as GDP per capita, a treasury bond yield, and a major stock market index. The components have interconnected dynamics along with external influences from the United Stated Federal Funds Rate and foreign direct investment. These connections are considered through a metamodel in the form of a system of differential equations which is solved as an inverse problem. …
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff
Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff
Theses and Dissertations
The rate setting process implemented by the USTRANSCOM J8 Program Analysis & Financial Management Directorate (USTC J8 or TCJ8) is of importance, as accurate rates yield proper and equitable recoupment of costs from customers and ensure USTC can achieve an accurate Net Operating Result (NOR) in each given year. This research sought to identify areas in which the current rate setting methodology can be improved. We initially examined the use of six months of historical cost data versus a full year of data to set rates, concluding that there is not a statistically significant difference with respect to their relative …
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher
Theses and Dissertations
Fluctuations in the economy can cause military recruitment and retention plans to go awry. By focusing on various economic metrics, it is possible to anticipate changes in retention rates for specific Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). To address the challenge of maintaining a robust and mission capable Air Force, a correlation analysis is employed to determine the relationship between certain economic indicators and AFSC retention rates. As one might suspect, retention rates follow the trend of decreasing when the economy is strong. Of interest, we found two AFSCs which go against this trend. Namely, the retention rates for officers in …