Operational Research Commons^™

A Model To Evaluate The Effect Of Organizational Adaptation, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Levis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

When an organization’s output declines due to either internal changes or changes in its external environment, it needs to adapt. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies on organizational per- formance, an organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker was designed using an object oriented design approach and implemented as a Colored Petri net. The concept of entropy is used to calculate the total activity value, a surrogate for decision maker workload, based on the functional partition and the adaptation strategy being implemented. The individual decision maker’s total activity is monitored, …

Computer-Based Methods For Constructing Two-Level Fractional-Factorial Experimental Designs With A Requirement Set, Steven L. Forsythe

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation developed four methodologies for computer-aided experimental design of two-level fractional factorial designs with requirement sets (DOE/RS). The requirement sets identify all the experimental factors and the appropriate interaction terms to be evaluated in the experiment. Taguchi graphs and similar manual methods provide techniques for solving the DOE/RS problem. Unfortunately, these methods are limited because they become difficult to use as the number of factors or interaction terms exceeds ten. This research showed that the DOE/RS problem belongs to a class of difficult-to-solve problems known as NP-Complete. It is the combinatorial nature of NP-Complete problems that causes them to …

Routing Optimization Through Computer-Aided Simulation, Madhusudhan Akundi

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Routing has always been a challenging field, and the various techniques of mathematics and operations research have been developed. For commercial organizations, routing has begun to receive extensive attention because of the savings gained in terms of time, money, personnel, and the transportation fleet by developing optimized routing networks. Until recently, it was difficult to develop optimized networks due to the computational difficulties of the problem. However, with the advancement in computer technology and processing speeds, it has become possible to simulate a large number of routing scenarios and determine optimal solutions for a given set of constraints. Not only …

Process Flow Optimization Studies Through Discrete Event Simulation, Milind Chokshi

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Computer-aided simulation has begun to emerge as a powerful tool for numerical analysis of the behavior and anticipated performance of industrial systems and their optimization. Applications include materials handling, storage and controls systems, prediction of manufacturing efficiencies, and production optimization. Simulations are used to test baseline models and subsequently analyze new production concepts, operating strategies, and planned procedures prior to costly implementation.

The study of process flows in a manufacturing environment is difficult due to its inherent stochastic nature. Breakdown of the sub-systems and failures of machines is a random process and needs to be solved based on concepts of …

A Java Universal Vehicle Router In Support Of Routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Robert W. Harder

Theses and Dissertations

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) help the military gather information in times of peace and war. During a mission, typically 100 sites or more, a UAV will frequently be re-tasked to visit a pop-up threat, leaving the operator to determine the best way to finish the day's list of sites after the re-tasking. I develop a prototype application to serve the needs of a specific customer, the 11th Reconnaissance Squadron, by helping them preplan missions and dynamically re-task UAVs. This prototype application is built on a reusable airframe router called the core AFIT Router, which can later be added to more …

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Chil Ho Park

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents a new sequential goodness of fit test for the three-parameter gamma distribution with a known shape. The test is accomplished by employing two new tests, sample skewness and sample kurtosis, sequentially as test statistics. Unlike the typical goodness of fit test, using parameter estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation and minimum distance estimation, this test using the two test statistics above does not involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. Large Monte Carlo simulation has been used to determine critical values and overall significance levels for all combinations of the two tests, and to conduct extensive …

Development Of An Operations Research Software Package For Army Divisions, Blane C. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

There exists great potential for applying operations research techniques to solve specific problems in the areas of operations, installation support, and training at the Army division level. Because of the operational tempo of today's active-duty and reserve component units, command must focus on accomplishing the daily missions. Also, due their limited knowledge of the field, planners may not be aware of how operations research can be used to enhance planning and operations. Time, training funds, resources, safety, personnel, and equipment are all critical factors in this process. Operations research techniques could be used to improve division-level operations by saving time, …

Study Of Human Factors Variables In Battle Outcome Prediction Models, David Andrew Glovier

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Over time there have been many improvements in models that are used to predict the outcome of battles. Currently there is much supposition and speculation surrounding the use of human performance related factors as additional inputs to battle simulation models to improve their accuracy. However there is no conclusive scientific evidence which shows that these factors do make a significant difference. This study investigates the use of factors that may impact on the human performance directly or indirectly in battle prediction models. These factors consist of traditional human factors and external factors that may influence the human performance. The research …

A New Sequential Goodness Of Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution With Known Shape Based On Skewness And Kurtosis, Jonathan C. Clough

Theses and Dissertations

The Weibull distribution finds wide applicability across a broad spectrum of disciplines and is very prevalent in reliability theory. Consequently, numerous statistical tests have been developed to determine whether sample data can be adequately modeled with this distribution. Unfortunately, the majority of these goodness-of-fit tests involve a substantial degree of computational complexity. The study presented here develops and evaluates a new sequential goodness-of-fit test for the three-parameter Weibull distribution with a known shape that delivers power comparable to popular procedures while dramatically reducing computational requirements. The new procedure consists of two distinct tests, using only the sample skewness and sample …

An Advanced Visualization Method For An Operations Research Analysis, Steven C. Oimoen

Theses and Dissertations

Visualizing multidimensional data using only two dimensions and conventional visualization techniques limits the understanding of the data set. Underlying structures or patterns within the data can easily go unnoticed. In order to gain additional insight into an analysis, incorporation of visualization and multidimensional graphics into the analysis results should be accomplished. The results must ensure that the information portrayed is not misleading or misunderstood. The integrity of the data must be preserved throughout the transformation. The primary objective of this research effort is to identify techniques to visualize multidimensional data and then develop a software tool to display the multidimensional …

Solving Geometric Knapsack Problems Using Tabu Search Heuristics, Christopher A. Chocolaad

Theses and Dissertations

An instance of the geometric knapsack problem occurs in air lift loading where a set of cargo must be chosen to pack in a given fleet of aircraft. This paper demonstrates a new heuristic to solve this problem in a reasonable amount of time with a higher quality solution then previously reported in literature. We also report a new tabu search heuristic to solve geometric knapsack problems.

A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …

A Comparison Of Circular Error Probable Estimators For Small Samples, Charles E. Williams

Theses and Dissertations

Several previous studies investigated the performance of competing circular error probable (CEP) estimators for small samples. This estimation is important in ICBM analysis because, due to expense, there are a limited number of ICBM test launches. In the most recent previous study (1993), Tongue considered five CEP estimators in a simulation test, attempting to determine the behavior of these estimators for populations of various bias, ellipticity, correlation, and sample size. In this paper, we build on Tongue's findings in three ways: (1) The number of estimators compared is expanded to eight. (2) Different factors and factor levels are used. (3) …

Experiments In Aggregating Air Ordnance Effectiveness Data For The Tacwar Model, James E. Parker

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive MS Access&trademark; based application that aggregates the output of the SABSEL model for input into the TACWAR model is developed. The application was developed following efforts to create a functional approximation of the SABSEL data using neural networks, statistical networks, and traditional statistical techniques. These approximations were compared to a look-up table methodology on the basis of accuracy, (RMSE

A Robust Method Of Solving Nonlinear Boundary Value Problems Via Modified Compromise Programming, John L. Zornick

Theses and Dissertations

This study is an extension of Ng's previous work in which goal programming was used to determine an approximate solution to a boundary value problem. This approach follows the same basic approach developed by Ng in which the method of collocation was recast as a compromise programming model. Hence, instead of solving a system of simultaneous nonlinear equations, one seeks a compromise solution which minimizes (in a weighted residual sense) a vector norm of the differential equation residuals. A difference in this approach is that it makes use of a genetic algorithm as the optimizing engine as opposed to the …

Predicting Utility Bills For Air Combat Command A Study Of Forecasting Techniques, William L. Luthie

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Many companies use forecasting techniques as a tool in managing their assets. Trends in such items as sales, population and inventory levels have all been determined at one time or another using forecasting, yet research indicates that these tools have not been utilized to predict utility budgets. This research was conducted to determine if such techniques could be applied to the specific task of predicting the utility bill at an Air Force base. Three quantitative models were chosen, the Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Regression, to determine their applicability to the task at hand. One base within Air Combat Command, …

The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effect on simulation output of repeatedly sampling an embedded metamodel. A metamodel is said to be embedded within a simulation if it is used to replace a submodule of that simulation. Replacing a deterministic module with an embedded deterministic metamodel poses no apparent mathematical problems. However, using a deterministic metamodel to replace a stochastic simulation component could require additional corrective actions. This research was performed in two phases. The first phase dealt with a set of tandem queues. It was shown that as each queue was sequentially replaced with a metamodel, the total system variance was …

Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the problem of estimating the survival function of an item (probability that the item functions for a time greater than a given time t) from sampling data subject to partial right censoring (a portion of the items in the sampling data have not yet been observed to fail). Specifically the thesis describes several parametric and non-parametric statistical models that can be used when the sampling data is subject to partial right censoring. These models are applied to the case of estimating the captive-carry survival function of the AIM-120A Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a new goodness-of-fit test for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter. This test statistic, Z*, is based on spacings from complete or censored samples. The size of samples varied between 5 and 35. The critical value tables were generated for the Z* test statistic for complete and censored samples. The critical values were obtained for five different significance levels: 0.20 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. An extensive power study, containing 50,000 Monte Carlo runs was conducted using nine alternative distributions, H_a. It was observed that the Z* test statistic was more powerful against certain …

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined two animation displays moving icons, bar graphs at two presentation speeds to determine how each of these factors affected the animations ability to communicate violations of model assumptions. Subjects viewed animation displays individually and in combination at each presentation speed. Eight problem scenarios were presented to evaluate each animations ability to communicate violations of different assumptions. Each animations communication ability was measured subjectively and objectively. Subjective measures in the form of pairwise comparisons were used to calculate normalized preference ratings for each animation. objective measures included problem identification accuracy and problem time. Subjective results indicated that moving …

Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes several models for placing bounds on the expected values of some dynamic performance measures for computer communication networks with failing components. These models provide an understanding of expected network performance that is useful in the process of proactive performance monitoring and also in defining level of service agreements with network users. There were three objectives for this research. The first objective was to extend some existing models of steady-state stochastic network performance to a dynamic network flow representation in order to capture the dynamic nature of proactive monitoring. The second objective was to convert the extended absolute …

An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Staffs Future Theater Level Model FTLM. The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the FTLM architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of …

An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the feasibility of using Simulated Annealing SA in structural optimization problems. The investigation involves solving benchmark structural optimization problems with an SA algorithm, and comparing its solutions to those found by four other optimizers. Overall, the analysis shows that SA has limited applicability in structural optimization. Two primary factors were found to adversely impact the performance of the SA algorithm in these problems. These factors are high dimensionality, and high levels of constraint. The difficulty involved in solving these problems with a random search increases exponentially with the number of dimensions. The number, and non-linearity, of the …

Materials Recovery Facilities In The United States Virgin Islands: A Regional Facilities Location Model Study, Lloyd O. Prince Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Continental municipalities have derived many benefits from the economies of scale associated with a regional approach to facilities location and management planning. Centralized solid waste processing facilities is an example. Island communities, however, surrounded by miles of ocean, are constrained to a fragmented approach to the facilities location solution. This research was conducted to determine if the regional paradigm suggested in the literature is applicable to a set of island communities connected by an ocean transportation infrastructure. A linear programming (LP) model, constraints and data requirements were developed and applied to a network of islands. A series of hypothetical material …

Synthetic Battlebridge: Information Visualization And User Interface Design Applications In A Large Virtual Reality Environment, Kirk G. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

With shrinking budgets and fewer personnel, future military training will rely heavily on simulated environments. The goal for this training is to reduce cost while maintaining readiness and unparalleled capability for all levels of military command. This thesis effort, the Synthetic Battle Bridge SBB , provides a real-time simulated environment for military commanders to observe on-going computer simulations of varying participation levels and helps them wring the most from a simulation. The SBB, designed for higher ranking personnel with little time to spend learning how to run the system, must exhibit three capabilities ease-of-use, long-term retention, and adaptability. Based on …

Integration And Enhancement Of The Saber Wargame, Karl S. Mathias

Theses and Dissertations

The Saber wargame is a theater-level air/land battle wargame written in Ada that is being developed for the Air Force Wargaming Center at Maxwell AFB, AL. This thesis documents how the user interface and simulation engine were integrated. Integration was accomplished by developing a portable object-oriented database system (OODBMS) interface. The interface was implemented in Ada and tied to an OODBMS also written in Ada. Using the interface, both subsystems were able to work from a consistent database and exchange information. The user interface was enhanced by converting it from the Software Technology for Adaptable Reliable Systems Ada/X Window System …