Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Research On Network Public Opinion Transmission Mechanism Of Inversion Event Based On Integrating Improved Sir Model, Jianrong Tang, Jiatong Bao

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In order to identify the spreading rules of rumors in vicious news reversal events and make more targeted guiding decisions, a short-term prediction model is proposed to simulate the spread of virus information. This paper improves the traditional susceptible infected removed (SIR) model and solves the problem that the conversion rate is fixed and single due to the limitation of Markov chain when it is combined with systems dynamics (SD) model. The data is validated with the example of "asthmatic girls" . The results show that the model not only effectively simulates the crisis of public opinion communication in …

Research On The Number Of Passengers On The Platform Of Rail Transit Station Considering Congestion Propagation, Wei Chen, Zongping Li, Can Liu, Yanni Ju

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: It is the basis of improving the safety guarantee ability of urban rail transit system to study and master the change law of the number of passengers in the urban rail transit station under the condition of Congestion Propagation. From the point of view of multi subsystem of passenger, station and train, combined with the multi-attribute characteristics of passenger flow, platform and train, the calculation model of the number of passengers in urban rail transit station is established based on system dynamics. A multi group sensitivity simulation experiment is designed to analyze the influence factors of the number of …

Modeling And Simulation Of Emergency Medical Resources Allocation In Shanghai During Covid-19, Changjia Fan, Yanqiu Du, Liang Di, Hu Kai, Jiayan Huang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Modeling and simulating on the allocation of emergency medical resources in Shanghai with COVID-19 is carried out. Based on the SEIR model of infectious diseases, combined with the process of outpatients visiting and inpatients treatment, a SEIOWHR(susceptible-exposed-infected-outpatients- waiting to hospitalized-hospitalized-removed) system dynamics model is established. If the Wuhan epidemic occurred in Shanghai, based on the model, the amount of emergency medical resources needed, the gap time of medical resources and the disease progression of patients who are waiting to hospitalized under the different supply of medical resources is simulated, and the key factors in the allocation of medical …

Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus is considered and a new SE4IR2 model based on the principle of system dynamics is proposed. The US epidemic data from June to November is used to set the isolation rate and other parameters, and the SE4IR2 model is used to fit, analyze and predict the development of the epidemic trend in the next stage. The empirical part uses the data from June to November in the United States to achieve the parameters of the SE4IR2 model, obtains the parameter values in December and January through the time series prediction model, and compares …

Simulation On The Development Of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under The Declining Trend Of Feed-In-Tariff, Libo Zhang, Lulu Ge, Changqi Chen, Mingduan Tang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (R-DPVG) has become the important developing force of PV generation in China. As the declining of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), system dynamics method is used to construct a causal loop model for R-DPVG’s development, and relevant factors and their feedback mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. Then a stock-flow model is build, and the ROI, installed capacity, and policy subsidy costs of R-DPVG are simulated under some combined scenarios based on declining FIT. The simulation proves R-DPVG’s FIT will be reduced to 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan/(kW?h) in the next three years till cancelled. FIT cutting amplitude, capacity and targets …

Development Paths Of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating Co2 Emissions Trading Scheme, Wenxiang Li, Li Ye, Jieshuang Dong, Yiming Li

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: New energy vehicles in China have entered the “post-subsidy era”, and it is urgent to explore and establish a long-term mechanism for market-oriented development. The CO₂ emission trading scheme for road transport (ETS-RT) is introduced to replace financial subsidies, forming a market-oriented incentive and punishment mechanism. Therefore, a market mechanism is established where internal combustion engine vehicles feed new energy vehicles. A causal loop diagram of system dynamics was used to analyze the key policy parameters of the ETS-RT that affect the development of new energy vehicles. Then a multi-agents-based model of ETS-RT is established to simulate the …

Modeling And Simulation Of Electric Vehicle Industry Development Based On System Dynamics, Yueqiang Fu, Tiantian Xia

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: New energy electric vehicle are the main trend of automobile industry upgrading. It plays an important role in ensuring the energy security and improving the ecological environment. It is of theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the development of new energy electric vehicles. The affecting factors are systematically analyzed, the causal relationship model and stock flow model are established, and the dynamic equation of the model are determined and the parameter assignments are made. The model is verified and the system simulation and analysis are performed. The development trend and main influencing factors of …

Study On Ultimate Carrying Capacity And Regulation Methods Of Urban Atmospheric Environment, Guangqiu Huang, Wenxin Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In order to solve the calculation problem of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment, the calculation formula of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment is proposed, and the system dynamics model with the ‘pollution index-energy' compliance as the constraint is constructed according to the urban energy planning, namely the PI-E-SD(Pollution Indicator-Energy-System Dynamics) model. In this model, the linear regression method is used to determine the pollution index, which solves the non-uniformity problem. The SD-modeling method is used to construct the “energy-economy-environment” simulation system, so that the government measures can be quantified to make the prediction …

Modeling And Simulation Of Boiler Superheated Steam Temperature System Based On System Dynamics, Le Wei, Yuanyuan Yan

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Based on the principle of system dynamics, from the perspective of mass and energy conservation, taking the causal loop diagrams and the stock and flow diagrams as the carriers, and starting from the running mechanism of the system, the system dynamics model for the boiler superheated steam temperature system was established. This model has clear structure and reasonable complexity. By using the high temperature super-heater of the 300 MW boiler-turbine unit of Hebei Qingyuan Power Plant as the research object, simulation studies were carried out in Vensim PLE environment. The simulation curves were compared with the curves of …

Simulation Research For Highway Maintenance Management System Based On System Dynamics, Zhang Hong, Fangmin Ren, Rongbei Zheng

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: It is necessary to study the long-term and dynamic relationships between highway maintenance efficiency and stakeholders, thus helping decision-making on the policies and maintenance plans around the highway maintenance issue. Based on analyzing dynamics and complexities of highway maintenance system, the system dynamics model for the highway maintenance simulation system was established. This study was aimed at simulating and evaluating the long-term dynamic relationships of the interactions among the highway pavement performance, operator's maintenance plans, users' satisfaction and administration department's budget allocation scheme for a long time period. The effectiveness and application of the proposed model were demonstrated …

Energy Conservation And Emissions Reduction Policy Simulation About Energy-Consuming Enterprises, Yongbo Yang, Chen Ying, Yang Jing, Mingzhong Liu, Zhenchao Jiang, Zeng Rong

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Energy conservation and emissions reduction policy have made some achievements, at the same time there are still some problem such as too much administrative command, lack of market mechanism and the lack of price mechanism. The government is both energy conservation leader, supervisor also rule makers. In order to formulate energy conservation policy, they must have overall cognition on energy conservation and emissions reduction. The dynamic relationship between the government, enterprise and environment was analyzed setting up simulation model for key energy-consuming enterprises based on system dynamics. Through the simulation, the influence of different policies for energy conservation …

Analysis Of Evolutionary Game Of Stakeholders In Service-Oriented Manufacturing Project Governance, Benhong Peng, Xiaofen Gu, Lu Qian

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: For the project governance of service-oriented manufacturing, there are three stakeholders, namely core manufacturer, customer, and service provider. Stability of three participants' evolutionary game was analyzed, the evolutionary game model was constructed and the dynamic game process of three - party Strategy Selection was studied by means of system dynamics simulation. Research shows that three participants eventually reach a steady state, which is core manufacture supervising, customer joining in, and service provider working hard; customer pays more attention to insured factors when choosing strategy; service provider's endeavor does not always aggrandize customer's expected revenue; The core manufacturing should fix …

Modeling And Simulation For Prevention And Control Of Drug Abuse And Drug-Related Crime Based On System Dynamics, Liu Feng

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In the existing drug abuse dynamics models, the drug users are assumed to be permanent immune to drugs after rehabilitation and the possibility of the recovery drug users being susceptible again is neglected. To solve the problem, through the system dynamics (SD) method, the evolution process of the drug-related crowds is analyzed, and a relevant model based on the transient immunity is constructed. The trends of the drug abuse and drug-related crime are predicted by the simulation experiments, and the sensitivity analysis indicates that the rate of contact and exposure to drugs is the most sensitive factor of the …

A System-Of-Systems Model To Simulate The Complex Emergent Behavior Of Vehicle Traffic On An Urban Transportation Infrastructure Network, Rayan Assaad, Cihan H. Dagli, Islam H. El-Adaway

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Transportation agencies face escalating challenges in forecasting the traffic demand. Traditional prediction methods focused on individual transportation sectors and failed to study the inter-dependencies between the different transportation systems. Hence, there is a need for more advanced and holistic modeling techniques. To this end, this paper models and analyses an urban transportation system-of-systems incorporating seven various systems: population and GDP, CO₂ emission, gasoline price and total vehicle trips, traffic demand, public and private transportation, transportation investment, and traffic congestion. Accordingly, this research simulates transportation networks as a collection of task-oriented systems that combine their resources to form a complex …

System Dynamics And Multi-Agent Simulation Research On Ground Combatpersonnel Attrition, Xiaoxiong Hao, Jianwei Ma, Zhaohui Huang, Yungui Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In order to study the law of the combat personnel attrition and guide the military medical logistics support, the relevant researches are systematically sorted out and the key questions are clarified. Based on Lanchester equation theory, a system dynamics model of the combat attrition process is established, and the consistency between the model conclusion and the historical experience is analyzed. A multi-agent model of the combat attrition process is also constructed, and the advantages and disadvantages of the two models are analyzed. The main conclusion is that the theoretical model’s outcomes of combat attrition are relatively consistent with the …

Exploration Of Soldier Morale Using Multi-Mode Simulation Approach, Yongsheng Zhang, Zhengxiang Xiong

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Soldier morale is a complex social construction influenced by factors at multiple levels and integrates many research domains. This research seeks to explore, model, and simulate soldier morale at multiple levels of analysis. Microcosmically Agent-Based Modeling method is used to reflect the interaction among fighters and the course of affecting morale,Macrocosmically SD method is used to reflect the influence of the tactical psychology on morale and the whole war in the counter-combat process. The developed sample case scenario pertained to US security efforts against insurgency in Afghanistan in 2007. The scenario includes representation of the patrol base operations serving …

Study On Ecological Compensation Of Three Gorges Basin Based On Evolutionary Game Theory, Guangming Yang, Yanjun Shi

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Under the background of the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, based on the evolutionary game theory, the game model of the upstream and downstream governments of the Three Gorges Basin and the central ecological compensation behavior are constructed to analyze the interests appeal and compensation behaviors among the three parties, so as to have a complex interest game relationship in the Yangtze River and analyze the cases of ecological compensation in the Three Gorges Basin. The research shows that without the restriction of central government, it is difficult for the upstream and downstream governments in the …

Research On Concession Period Performance Of Highway Ppp Project Based On Pavement Maintenance, Zhang Hong, Rongbei Zheng, Wenshan Qiao

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: There are long-term dynamic and interactive relationships among highway pavement performance, user satisfaction, maintenance costs and profits, government satisfaction and related decisions in the life cycle pavement maintenance. Based on analyses of dynamic impacts and complexity of stakeholders’ behaviors around the highway pavement maintenance, a system dynamics (SD) model of the concession period performance for the highway public-private-partnership (PPP) project is established. Based on simulation experimental analysis of an example, validation and application of the proposed SD model are illustrated. Through sensitivity analysis, the influences of different stakeholders such as government, private investors, and users on the concession …

Simulation Of Influence Of Coal-Based Industry On Water Resources Bearing System, Yalin Chen, Wangsheng Gui, Qianjin Dong, Ye Chun, Haotian Wu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The contradictory spatial distribution between China's coal resources and water resources has become the stress to sustainable development of regional ecological environment and social economy. The paper presents interactive simulation model of regional water resources bearing system based on System Dynamics; and then Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example, the dynamic process of local water bearing system was simulated under different scenarios of planning. The simulation results show that regional sustainable development of water resources would be achieved if the resources are allocated based on the market, while the gap between supply and demand of regional …

Correlation Analysis Model Of Generalized Stochastic System Dynamics, Guangqiu Huang, Qiuqin Lu

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: In order to solve the problem of system dynamics (SD) simulation and correlation analysis of complex system containing random possesses, the generalized stochastic Petri-net (GSPN) is expanded into the generalized stochastic function Petri-net (GSFPN), and a GSFPN-SD model is proposed by combining GSFPN and SD. The GSFPN-SD model has the following advantages: (1) the process of state evolution is more clear by firing transits; (2) it describes the autonomous dynamic evolution of complex system more realistically as system’s dynamic change is driven by events; (3) transits are fired by tokens' movement, thus the system states can conditionally or …

A System Dynamics Innovation Diffusion Model Applied To Carbon Nanotube Manufacturing, Frances G. Mackinnon

Theses and Dissertations

The transition of advanced technologies from their nascent state to viable commercial entities is a critical step in assuring the United States' national technological superiority and support is often required to incubate such technological developments. We propose a spiral development to investigate the possible scenarios, underlying economics, and risk associated with scaling up carbon nanotube (CNT) production to a commercially viable scale. As the first stage of this proposed effort, this study characterizes the potential scenarios by which a CNT manufacturing company can generate positive annual net revenue and potentially be considered a competitive manufacturer of CNT products on an …

A System Dynamics Approach Applied To Wind Energy System Sustainability, Jenny Maria Tejeda Carlos

Industrial, Manufacturing, and Systems Engineering Dissertations

Sustainability of energy systems is one of the most important challenges currently facing humanity. Access to energy is critical to ensure economic and social development of a nation (UNDP et al., 2000); however, extraction, production and consumption of energy resources are also associated with high volumes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, environmental damage and, in some cases, adverse health effects in communities where energy facilities are located. Renewable energy sources have been considered as an alternative to traditional energy sources to meet energy demand in a sustainable manner (Del Rio and Burguillo, 2008). Wind energy is considered to be one …

Understanding Technology Diffusion And Spatial Accessibility In The Home Healthcare Industry, Mehmet Serdar Kilinç

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Home healthcare is becoming an important alternative to institutionalized care. It not only reduces costs but also increases health outcomes and patient satisfaction. However, the availability and efficiency of home healthcare services need to be improved as the aging population increases in the US. Hence, understanding home healthcare utilization and access are the essential steps to develop strategies ensuring effective and sustainable services to patients.

This research aims to study two main issues in the US home healthcare system: diffusion and long-term impacts of home telehealth and potential spatial accessibility of home healthcare services. Home telehealth is a promising technology …

A Holistic Framework For Transitional Management, Ahmed Elattar

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

For all business organizations, there comes a time when a change must take place within their eco-system. It consumes a great deal of thought and planning to ensure that the right decision is made as it could alter the entire course of their business for a number of years to come. This change may appear in the form of a brilliant CEO reaching the age of retirement, or an unsuccessful Managing Director being asked to leave before fulfilling the term of her contract. Regardless of the cause, a transition must occur in which a suitable successor is chosen and put …

A Framework For Workforce Management An Agent Based Simulation Approach, Mario Marin

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In today's advanced technology world, enterprises are in a constant state of competition. As the intensity of competition increases the need to continuously improve organizational performance has never been greater. Managers at all levels must be on a constant quest for finding ways to maximize their enterprises' strategic resources. Enterprises can develop sustained competitiveness only if their activities create value in unique ways. There should be an emphasis to transfer this competitiveness to the resources it has on hand and the resources it can develop to be used in this environment. The significance of human capital is even greater now, …

Quantifying Economic Benefits For Rail Infrastructure Projects, Akhilesh Ojha

Masters Theses

"Investment in rail infrastructure is necessary to maintain existing service and to cater for future growth in freight and passenger services. Many communities have realized the importance of investment in rail infrastructure projects and set up goals and visions to achieve economic development through investing in such projects. Due to limited funds available, communities have to select a single or very few projects from a variety of projects. It is very critical that right projects must be selected at the right time for a community to realize economic development. The limited methods for quantifying the economic benefits to the stakeholders …

Total Ownership Cost Modeling Of Technology Adoption Using System Dynamics: Implications For Erp Systems, Behzad Esmaeilian

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Investment in new technologies is considered by firms as a solution to improve their productivity, product and service quality and their competitive advantages in the global market. Unfortunately, not all technology adoption projects have met their intended objectives. The complexity of technology adoption along with little consideration of the long term cost of the technology, are among the factors that challenge companies while adopting a new technology. Companies often make new technology adoption decision without enough attention to the total cost of the technology over its lifecycle. Sometimes poor decision making while adopting a new technology can result in substantial …

A Framework For Measuring The Value-Added Of Knowledge Processes With Analysis Of Process Interactions And Dynamics, Jose Cintron

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The most known and widely used methods use cash flows and tangible assets to measure the impact of investments in the organization’s outputs. But in the last decade many newer organizations whose outputs are heavily dependent on information technology utilize knowledge as their main asset. These organizations’ market values lie on the knowledge of its employees and their technological capabilities. In the current technology-based business landscape the value added by assets utilized for generation of outputs cannot be appropriately measured and managed without considering the role that intangible assets and knowledge play in executing processes. The analysis of processes for …

Strategic Improvement: A Systems Approach Using The Balanced Scorecard Methodology To Increase Federally Financed Research At The University Of Central Florida, Joseph Walters

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The University of Central Florida has many successful measures to reflect on as it celebrates its 50th year in 2013. It is the university with the 2nd largest student population in the U. S. and its overall ranking in the U.S. News & World Report has improved 4 years in a row. However, with respect to research, the federally funded research and development for the University of Central Florida (UCF) has remained flat. In addition, when compared to other schools, its portion of those federal research dollars is small. This thesis lays the groundwork for developing a model for improving …

Modeling The Adoption Of Identification Standards Within The Healthcare Supply Chain, Angelica Burbano

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The adoption of identification standards and its associated technology in the healthcare supply chain has been slow over the past twenty five years, despite the evidence of the benefits that can be achieved. The widespread use of identification standards in the form of barcode labeled medical products can contribute to the reduction of point of care errors and can increase the efficiency of healthcare supply chain related processes. This research is focused on the analysis of the adoption of identification standards in the healthcare supply chain with a particular focus on the healthcare provider adoption challenges. The research is divided …