Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

A Value Focused Thinking Model For The Development And Selection Of Electrical Energy Source Alternatives At Military Installations, Gregory T. Schanding

Theses and Dissertations

Electrical power on military installations is vital for mission accomplishment. Most installations obtain electrical power from a local commercial utility. Although commercial power service has a very low interruption rate, the threat of a sustained power outage resulting from a terrorist act or a natural disaster is of concern. The military should posture itself to prevent such power outages and prepare to mitigate the adverse effects associated with the loss of power. This thesis presents a Value Focused Thinking approach to the development of a decision analysis model to assist a decision maker at a military installation in the generation …

Keys To Successful Implementation And Sustainment Of Managed Maintenance For Healthcare Facilities, Elizabeth A. Waggoner

Theses and Dissertations

Health care providers are faced with two critical issues in today's evolving marketplace: lowering operational costs and achieving more efficient, cost-effective methods to deliver high quality patient care. The rising costs of healthcare and decreasing budgets have placed additional strain on the United States Air Force Medical Service to aggressively lower its facilities' costs. With fewer funds and less personnel, the Air Force medical service is re-evaluating its current maintenance outsourcing implementation practices and reexamining how these strategies might be implemented and sustained more successfully. This research offers some of the foundational needs for designing, implementing and sustaining any type …

Investigating The Optimal Management Strategy For A Healthcare Facility Maintenance Program, Daria J. Gaillard

Theses and Dissertations

Reacting to the need to transform and the increasing pressure to outsource all non-core activities, Air Force Material Command Surgeon General discontinued its previous use of full service contracts with original equipment manufacturers and adopted a relatively new maintenance outsourcing strategy: strategic partnering with an equipment management firm. The objective of this study is to create a decision-model for selecting the optimal management strategy for a healthcare organization's facility maintenance program. This study used personal interviews with facility management personnel from MAJCOMs to collect and analyze data. This study offers a re-conceptualized framework for viewing and understanding the various maintenance …

Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon

Theses and Dissertations

Many countries realize the importance of the retention of qualified military personnel, and have tried to solve this problem using various methods. Nevertheless, the effects of those methods have not been determined or proven yet. The military retention problem is closely related to each individual's separation decision from the military. The characteristics of this decision are multi-objective and highly subjective. Accordingly, the effectiveness of various methods is heavily dependant on the value set of each individual. Decision Analysis (DA) using Value Focused Thinking (VFT) can be an excellent process to deal with this decision. Also, the data can reflect the …

Using Value-Focused Thinking To Evaluate The Effectiveness Of Air Force Utility Privatization, Carlos Braziel

Theses and Dissertations

The majority of the Air Force s stateside utility systems are old, obsolete, and unreliable. The cost to upgrade and repair these systems is currently estimated at over $4 billion. In response, the Air Force began efforts to convey ownership of these utility systems to the private sector through privatization efforts. However, privatization critics believe that newly privatized entities of government will cost the public more money and provide a lower level of service. Therefore, independent audits are a necessity to ensure government initiatives, meet their intended goals. However, the Air Force currently lacks an effective auditing tool to ensure …

The Application Of Value Focused Thinking To Utilities Privatization Source Selection, J. Heath Duncan

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense's utility systems have suffered from under-funding and lack of technology investment, thereby creating a service gap between these DoD systems and systems operated by commercial providers. In order to overcome this gap and refurbish their systems, the DoD has focused its efforts on privatization of these systems. The utilities privatization decision is extremely vital and permanent and thus warrants backup source selection methodologies. Since awarding contracts in the utilities privatization arena requires a decision considering tradeoffs between multiple competing objectives, a value-focused thinking approach was used to create a structured, standardized value model taking into account …

Including Organizational Cultural Parameters In Work Processes, Holly A. H. Handley, Nancy J. Heacox

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Recent work in modeling decision-making work processes has focused on including the national culture of individual decision-makers in order to emphasize the differences in decision criteria between decision-makers of different nationalities. In addition to nationality, a decision-maker is also a member of an organization and brings this organizational culture to his role in the work process, where it may also affect his task performance. In order to represent the organizational impact on the work process, five organizational cultural parameters were identified and included in an algorithm for modeling and simulation of cultural difference in human decision-making. While the five modifiers …

Linear Programming And Genetic Algorithm Based Optimization For The Weighting Scheme Of A Value Focused Thinking Hierarchy, David M. Thawley

Theses and Dissertations

Deriving weights for a Value Focused Thinking (VFT) hierarchy demands considerable time and input from Decision Makers (DM) and Subject Matter Experts (SME). Often, the DMs and SMEs are the leaders of companies and organizations, and this required time is unrealistic with their schedules. In these situations, as well as scenarios where there no available DMs/SMEs, conventional means of weighting a VFT hierarchy are impossible, and any VFT analysis is halted. When historical data exists on evaluation measures and performance of alternatives, linear programming and genetic algorithm based optimization may be used to derive historically optimal weights for a hierarchy. …

Task Load And Automation Use In An Uncertain Environment, Mark A. Daly

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects that user task load level has on the relationship between an individual's trust in and subsequent use of a system's automation. Automation research has demonstrated a positive correlation between an individual's trust in and subsequent use of the automation. Military decision-makers trust and use information system automation to make many tactical judgments and decisions. In situations of information uncertainty (information warfare environments), decision-makers must remain aware of information reliability issues and temperate their use of system automation if necessary. An individual's task load may have an effect on his use …

A Task Process Pre-Experimental Model, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Lewis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The Adaptive Architectures for Command and Control (A2C2) program is a multidisciplinary program that employs a scientific basis for designing and analyzing adaptive and reconfigurable organizational structures at the Joint Task Force level. As part of its unique model-driven experimentation method, a pre-experimental model is created to support the formulation of hypotheses, the determination of key variables and parameter values, and the prediction of organizational performance. The pre-experimental model is used to explore the parameters of the experimental design in order to determine the appropriate region to conduct officer-in-the-loop experiments at the Naval Postgraduate School. A pre-experimental model based on …

Modeling And Analysis Of Social Networks, Robert S. Renfro Ii

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. …

Technology Selection For Enhancing F-16 Capability: An Analysis Using Value Focused Thinking, Cihangir Yay

Theses and Dissertations

This study, with support of the Aeronautical Systems center, builds a scientific decision support system intended for Air Combat Command. Past decision-making techniques are discussed and their limitations are explained. Two multiattribute decision-making techniques, analytical hierarch process and value focused thinking, are studied. Due to limitations of analytical hierarchy process, value focused thinking is accepted as the best fit for our problem. A value hierarchy model is developed using value focused thinking for selecting the most beneficiary F-16 engine modifications depending on Air Combat Command values. Ten modifications are ranked using value model to validate the process. Cost is involved …

Identification Of Critical Roles Of Program Managers And Contracting Officers, Daniel R. Shingledecker

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to identify current disagreement among acquisition professionals in regards to their role and authority; and to identify benefits and risks associated with combining program management and contracting officer roles into a single position. The research questions were answered through a literature review and use of the Delphi technique. The literature review indicated that the DoD has been operating with multiple conflicting perceptions of authority among its key acquisition professionals. The literature also identified the need for complex organizations, such as DoD acquisition offices, to pair high levels of responsibility with equally high levels of …

The Effects Of Budgetary Constraints, Multiple Strategy Selection, And Rationality On Equilibrium Attainment In An Information Warfare Simulation, Steven W. Tait

Theses and Dissertations

Information warfare (IW) has developed into a significant threat to the national security of the United States. Our critical infrastructures, linked together by information systems, are increasingly vulnerable to information attack. This study seeks to understand some of those factors which affect the ability of an individual to make accurate decisions in an IW environment. The study used game theory to analyze the behavior of decision-makers within an IW simulation. The IW game model is based on a set of games known as infinitely repeated games of incomplete information. It uses the Bayesian Nash equilibrium concept to determine the strategy …

Influence Of Feedback And Comment Labels On Information Sharing In A Computer Mediated Collaborative Environment, Gary D. Denney

Theses and Dissertations

A group support system (GSS) uses a combination of networked personal computers, software, and human facilitation to improve the group decision-making process. Group support Systems are being used in the Air Force today in a variety of capacities and in particular by the Warner-Robins Air Logistics Center (WR-ALC) to assess acquisition risks. Prior GSS research has found that certain structural and social dimensions of GSS designs might influence whether optimal process improvements take place. However, the dimensions that positively influence group performance have continued to be a matter of debate. This thesis looked at several structural and social contingencies to …

Incorporating Heterogeneity In Command Center Interactions, Holly A. H. Handley, Alexander H. Levis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

One of the many complexities of multinational coalition operations stems from differences in culture, military procedures, and command and control processes between the cooperating command centers. These differences can influence the interactions between decision makers of different command centers and can affect the outcome of the coalition operation. A coalition model, composed of individual models of the five-stage interacting decision maker model, was used in a virtual experiment. The subjective parameters included in the decision maker model can be any attribute that characterizes the heterogeneity of the decision makers. In this case, the parameters of power distance and uncertainty avoidance …

Modelling Information Assurance: A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Jonathan Todd Hamill

Theses and Dissertations

The information revolution has brought forth new and improved capabilities to rapidly disseminate and employ information in decision-making. These capabilities are critical to the civilian and military infrastructures of the United States, and act as force enhancers and enablers for the Armed Forces. These capabilities, however, often rely upon systems interconnected throughout the world, resulting in potentially increased vulnerability to attack. To add to this problem, elusive, threatening forces (national and transnational) originating from anywhere on the globe are likely to offer opponents less reliant on information technology an asymmetric advantage over information-reliant nations like the United States. To date, …

Technology Selection For The Air Force Research Laboratory Air Vehicles Directorate: An Analysis Using Value Focused Thinking, Michael F. Winthrop

Theses and Dissertations

A technology selection model was developed for the Air Vehicles Directorate of Air Force Research Laboratory. The model was developed and demonstrated to aid in addressing the question of what technologies Air Vehicles' should invest in to remain consistent with Air Force values. Both Value-Focused Thinking and optimization approaches were used to identify the value of Air Vehicles technology, to provide insights to Air Vehicles' decision-makers, to determine where value gaps might exist with the scored alternatives, and to determine how sensitive the model was to changes. As a demonstration of the approach, seven technologies were scored, representing all three …

Development Of An Operations Research Software Package For Army Divisions, Blane C. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

There exists great potential for applying operations research techniques to solve specific problems in the areas of operations, installation support, and training at the Army division level. Because of the operational tempo of today's active-duty and reserve component units, command must focus on accomplishing the daily missions. Also, due their limited knowledge of the field, planners may not be aware of how operations research can be used to enhance planning and operations. Time, training funds, resources, safety, personnel, and equipment are all critical factors in this process. Operations research techniques could be used to improve division-level operations by saving time, …

An Analytical Tool To Assess Aeromedical Evacuation Systems For The Department Of Defense, Scott A. Wilhelm

Theses and Dissertations

The research was commissioned by, and conducted for, the HQ AMC Surgeon General to assist him in making a hard decision. Should the McDonnell-Douglas C-9A Nightingale be replaced, and, if so, with what? Using tools based in Keeney's Value-Focused Thinking methodology, the SG's values for this decision were quantified, alternatives that addressed these values were generated, and those alternatives were evaluated using his values to suggest preferred alternatives.

The Effects Of Extraneous Presentation Graphics On Decision Making, Thomas S. Tingley

Theses and Dissertations

Almost every professional presentation includes some form of graphics. Many previous researchers have analyzed the relative effectiveness of graphical decision aids, such as pie charts or bar graphs. Very little research, however, has been conducted to determine the effects of extraneous graphics, such as pictures and logos, on decision making. This study employed an experiment to determine whether extraneous graphics hinder or enhance a decision maker's ability to obtain the pertinent information from a professional presentation. Other factors such as gender and graphics training were also analyzed for any influence on the results obtained. The results of the study indicated …

A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation …

A Nonlinear Dynamic Method For Supporting Large-Scale Decision-Making In Uncertain Environments, Wayne Woodhams

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research developed a methodology for supporting decision making by reducing uncertainty in decision environments which are too large, dynamic and complex to be treated by traditional quantitative and simulation techniques. These environments are complex because of the free choice associated with human involvement, and the existence of a large number of interrelated factors which influence the outcomes of the decision process. They are dynamic because the ground rules affecting those interrelationships are constantly changing. Uncertainty cannot be treated probabilistically, since identification of a full set of outcomes and factors of influence is not possible.

The venue for the investigation …

A Study Of Similarity And Analogical Decision-Making In Collaborative Design, Christopher Edward Weeks

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of similarity and analogy in design communication and propose a descriptive representation of the analogical decision-making process in the context of engineering design. It is proposed that social, cultural, and contextual knowledge are brought to bear on statements of need in the form of analogy as a means to elicit and evince potential design solutions. A goal of this study is to identify communicative behaviors, representing process variables of analogical decision-making, that can be used to describe how design information is represented, manipulated, and conveyed in a collaborative design effort. …

Research And Development Project Selection Tools: Probing Wright Laboratory's Project Selection Methods And Decision Criteria Using The Lateral Airfoil Concept, James E. Barger

Theses and Dissertations

This research accomplished three major tasks. First it examined familiarity and usage rates for fifteen published R&D project selection methods in the context of a larger general issue, the Air Force's ability to develop and exploit technology. Wright Laboratory served as the focus for the research effort and displayed a greater tendency to use formal methods in 1993 than was shown in prior research. The laboratory's overall preference for simpler models like Checklist, Scoring, and Sorting led to a recommendation that authors familiar with the other techniques communicate them in engineering and management vernacular. Secondly, the study introduced a technological …