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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 481 - 510 of 1238

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein Mar 2015

A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein

Theses and Dissertations

Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …

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Value Focused Thinking Applications To Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions To Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms, David S. Scanland Mar 2015

Value Focused Thinking Applications To Supervised Pattern Classification With Extensions To Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection Algorithms, David S. Scanland

Theses and Dissertations

Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) is an emerging analytical tool with flexible applications in different target detection and classification environments, including Military Intelligence, environmental conservation, etc. Algorithms are being developed at a rapid rate, solving various related detection problems under certain assumptions. At the core of these algorithms is the concept of supervised pattern classification, which trains an algorithm to data with enough generalizability that it can be applied to multiple instances of data. It is necessary to develop a logical methodology that can weigh responses and provide an output value that can help determine an optimum algorithm. This research focuses on …

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Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis Of A Decoy State Enabled Quantum Key Distribution System, Ryan D. Engle Mar 2015

Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis Of A Decoy State Enabled Quantum Key Distribution System, Ryan D. Engle

Theses and Dissertations

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is an emerging technology which uses the principles of quantum mechanics to provide unconditionally secure key distribution. QKD systems are unique in their ability to detect an eavesdropper's presence and are being marketed for applications where high levels of secrecy are required such as banking, government, and military environments. QKD systems are composed of electrical, optical, and electrooptical components. Their design requires expertise across multiple disciplines including computer science, computer engineering, electrical engineering, information theory, optical physics, and quantum physics. This multidisciplinary nature makes QKD an ideal candidate for study using Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) …

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Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation Mar 2015

Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation

Theses and Dissertations

In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the elements …

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Exploring Individual Differences In Workload Assessment, Danielle K. Boeke Dec 2014

Exploring Individual Differences In Workload Assessment, Danielle K. Boeke

Theses and Dissertations

Air Force missions continue to increase in complexity often imposing higher levels of task load from cognitive tasks on the operators. This increased task load manifests itself in increased cognitive workload and potentially derogated performance. While cognitive workload has been studied for decades, recent advances in objective workload models and physiology monitoring have the potential to provide a more robust understanding of workload, potentially allowing systems to adaptively employ automation to maintain operator peak performance. The current research sought to provide insight into the relationship between subjective workload, task performance, objective workload, and select physiology measures. Analysis of an existing …

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A Decision Analysis Framework For Evaluation Of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives For Fighter Aircraft, Matthew R. Dansereau Dec 2014

A Decision Analysis Framework For Evaluation Of Helmet Mounted Display Alternatives For Fighter Aircraft, Matthew R. Dansereau

Theses and Dissertations

The promise of providing an intuitive and efficient information interface, while allowing the warfighter to perform other critical tasks such as targeting or aircraft control, has led to the growing popularity of Helmet Mounted Displays (HMDs) across the military landscape, especially combat aircraft. Though design and selection of competing systems is critical to optimized performance and safety, structured methods for the evaluation of HMDs are not often used in the acquisition community, leaving selection among alternative designs to the judgment of subject matter experts. However, technical decision-making has been shown to be flawed without the use of a structured decision …

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Characterizing And Managing Intrusion Detection System (Ids) Alerts With Multi-Server/Multi-Priority Queuing Theory, Christopher C. Olsen Dec 2014

Characterizing And Managing Intrusion Detection System (Ids) Alerts With Multi-Server/Multi-Priority Queuing Theory, Christopher C. Olsen

Theses and Dissertations

The DoD sets forth an objective to employ an active cyber defense capability to prevent intrusions onto DoD networks and systems. Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) are a critical part of network defense architectures, but their alerts can be difficult to manage. This research applies Queuing Theory to the management of IDS alerts, seeking to answer how analysts and priority schemes effect alert processing performance. To characterize the effect of these two variables on queue wait times, a MATLAB simulation was developed to allow parametric analysis under two scenarios. The first varies the number of analysts and the second varies the …

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Approximate Dynamic Programming For Military Resource Allocation, Carl R. Parson Dec 2014

Approximate Dynamic Programming For Military Resource Allocation, Carl R. Parson

Theses and Dissertations

This research considers the optimal allocation of weapons to a collection of targets with the objective of maximizing the value of destroyed targets. The weapon-target assignment (WTA) problem is a classic non-linear combinatorial optimization problem with an extensive history in operations research literature. The dynamic weapon target assignment (DWTA) problem aims to assign weapons optimally over time using the information gained to improve the outcome of their engagements. This research investigates various formulations of the DWTA problem and develops algorithms for their solution. Finally, an embedded optimization problem is introduced in which optimization of the multi-stage DWTA is used to …

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Improving Non-Linear Approaches To Anomaly Detection, Class Separation, And Visualization, Todd J. Paciencia Dec 2014

Improving Non-Linear Approaches To Anomaly Detection, Class Separation, And Visualization, Todd J. Paciencia

Theses and Dissertations

Linear approaches for multivariate data analysis are popular due to their lower complexity, reduced computational time, and easier interpretation. In many cases, linear approaches produce adequate results; however, non-linear methods may generate more robust transformations, features, and decision boundaries. Of course, these nonlinear methods present their own unique challenges that often inhibit their use. In this research, improvements to existing non-linear techniques are investigated for the purposes of providing better, timely class separation and improved anomaly detection on various multivariate datasets, culminating in application to anomaly detection in hyperspectral imagery. Primarily, kernel-based methods are investigated, with some consideration towards other …

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A Method To Develop Neck Injury Criteria To Aid Design And Test Of Escape Systems Incorporating Helmet Mounted Displays, Jeffrey C. Parr Sep 2014

A Method To Develop Neck Injury Criteria To Aid Design And Test Of Escape Systems Incorporating Helmet Mounted Displays, Jeffrey C. Parr

Theses and Dissertations

HMDs are becoming common human-machine interface equipment in manned military flight, but introducing this equipment into the overall aircraft escape system poses new and significant system design, development, and test concerns. Although HMDs add capabilities, which improve operator performance, the increased capability is often accompanied by increased head supported mass. The increased mass can amplify the risk of pilot neck injury during ejection when compared to lighter legacy helmets. Currently no adequate USAF neck injury criteria exist to effectively guide the requirements, design, and test of escape systems for pilots with HMDs. This research effort presents a novel method to …

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Initial Capabilities Documents: A 10-Year Retrospective Of Tools, Methodologies, And Best Practices, Bryan D. Main, Michael P. Kretser, Joshua Shearer, Darrin A. Ladd Jul 2014

Initial Capabilities Documents: A 10-Year Retrospective Of Tools, Methodologies, And Best Practices, Bryan D. Main, Michael P. Kretser, Joshua Shearer, Darrin A. Ladd

Faculty Publications

The Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) is 10 years old and ripe for review. A central output document of the JCIDS process is an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) used by the Department of Defense to define gaps in a functional capability area and define new capabilities required. The research team analyzed 10 years of ICDs to identify methods and trends. The team found that several methodologies were favored and a convergence emerged in format and necessary content. Additionally, potential shortfalls in current best practices of interest to implementers and decision makers are identified. Guidelines and best practices are …

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Air Force Inspection System: An Application For System-Of-Systems (Sos) Engineering, Joseph R. Lay Jun 2014

Air Force Inspection System: An Application For System-Of-Systems (Sos) Engineering, Joseph R. Lay

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Combat Command (ACC) Inspector General (IG) assesses the operational readiness and combat effectiveness of units by evaluating individual wings. Today's conflicts; however, are waged as a joint force. The Joint Forces Commander (JFC) leverages the resources of the entire military complex to achieve strategic objectives. The synergistic effects, created by the integration of individual weapon systems, produce greater results than the individual components. Evaluating wings outside the joint System of Systems (SoS) architecture does not provide a true assessment of combat readiness. Using a case study method, this research examines the idea of integrating a joint SoS architecture …

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Toward Automating Web Protocol Configuration For A Programmable Logic Controller Emulator, Deanna R. Fink Jun 2014

Toward Automating Web Protocol Configuration For A Programmable Logic Controller Emulator, Deanna R. Fink

Theses and Dissertations

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) remain vulnerable through attack vectors that exist within programmable logic controllers (PLC). PLC emulators used as honeypots can provide insight into these vulnerabilities. Honeypots can sometimes deter attackers from real devices and log activity. A variety of PLC emulators exist, but require manual figuration to change their PLC pro le. This limits their flexibility for deployment. An automated process for configuring PLC emulators can open the door for emulation of many types of PLCs. This study investigates the feasibility of creating such a process. The research creates an automated process for figuring the web protocols of …

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Improving The Air Mobility Command's Air Refueler Route Building Capabilities, Tanya E. Kannon Mar 2014

Improving The Air Mobility Command's Air Refueler Route Building Capabilities, Tanya E. Kannon

Theses and Dissertations

We consider the problem of routing an aircraft (receiver) from a starting location to a target and back to an ending location while maintaining a fuel level above a predetermined level during all stages of the route and avoiding threat and no-fly zones. The receiver is routed to air refueling locations to refuel as required. The development of the network requires the processing of threat and no-fly zones to create the set of nodes that includes the bases (starting and end locations), the targets, and air refueling locations in addition to the restricted zone nodes. We develop a greedy heuristic …

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A Heuristic Approach To The Theater Distribution Problem, Emily K. Power Mar 2014

A Heuristic Approach To The Theater Distribution Problem, Emily K. Power

Theses and Dissertations

Analysts at USTRANSCOM are tasked with providing vehicle mixtures that will support the distribution of requirements as provided in the form of TPFDD. An integer programming model exists to search for optimal solutions to these problems, but it is fairly time consuming, and produces only one of potentially several good quality solutions. This research constructs a number of heuristic approaches to solving the TDP. Two distinct shipping methods are examined and applied through both constructive and probabilistic vehicle assignment processes. Multistart metaheuristic approaches are designed and used in conjunction with the constructive and probabilistic approaches. Random TPFDDs of size 20, …

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Enhanced Vehicle Beddown Approximations For The Improved Theater Distribution Model, Jonathan D. White Mar 2014

Enhanced Vehicle Beddown Approximations For The Improved Theater Distribution Model, Jonathan D. White

Theses and Dissertations

Gathering insight into the theater distribution process can be a complex task, especially when estimating potential beddown solutions. Coming up with a low cost feasible mixture of cargo vehicles that will support distribution of military personnel and goods within theater is currently a high priority for force flow analysts at USTRANSCOM. In the past, analysts used a trial and error simulation process that was iterative and time consuming. Recent research has produced the Improved Theater Distribution Model (ITDM), which presents a less time consuming, more precise method to estimate beddown allocations. Improving on this research, two linear programming methods were …

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Interface Evaluation For Open System Architectures, Joshua A. Burger Mar 2014

Interface Evaluation For Open System Architectures, Joshua A. Burger

Theses and Dissertations

This research develops a deterministic interface evaluation framework (IEF) in support of the principles identified in the Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA). Interface evaluation in weapon system development requires a Decision Analysis (DA) method capable of handling a continuously growing alternative set and functioning with limited availability of senior decision makers. Value Focused Thinking (VFT) is selected as the best method for addressing the parameters of the framework. Inputs from the Medium Altitude Unmanned Aircraft System program office are used. An initial value threshold is established to guide open interface decisions, based on assessments of 15 historical decision scenarios. Open …

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Exploring A Method To Quantitatively Measure Design Flexibility Early In The Defense Acquisition Life Cycle, Joseph S. Kim Mar 2014

Exploring A Method To Quantitatively Measure Design Flexibility Early In The Defense Acquisition Life Cycle, Joseph S. Kim

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to demonstrate a methodology using an Epoch-Era Analysis to quantify and estimate the value of design flexibility early in the Department of Defense's (DOD) acquisition life cycle. This method was implemented using a possible replacement to the Air Force's fighter-trainer aircraft as a baseline and a set of future requirements that would change the baseline. An existing Cost Estimating Relationship tool was utilized in conjunction with a decision tree modeling approach to accommodate uncertain future needs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify model parameters with dominant effects on the recommended design strategies. The results …

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Improving The Enterprise Requirements And Acquisition Model's Development Test And Evaluation Process Fidelity, Jason W. Sutherlin Mar 2014

Improving The Enterprise Requirements And Acquisition Model's Development Test And Evaluation Process Fidelity, Jason W. Sutherlin

Theses and Dissertations

Shrinking budgets and dynamic military conflicts have driven Department of Defense (DoD) leadership to reform how the military acquires weapon systems with the goal of decreasing program schedules and costs, while maximizing performance. With fifty years of reform, the DoD has been unable to adequately control program schedule objectives. Previous research attempted to support acquisition reforms through modeling and simulation. The Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model (ERAM) captures a program's progression through the Defense Acquisition Management System to gain insight into significant delays that impact program schedule and probability of completion. A past unexpected result included the insignificant impact that …

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Fragment Capture Simulation For Manpads Test Arena Optimization, Michael J. Garee Mar 2014

Fragment Capture Simulation For Manpads Test Arena Optimization, Michael J. Garee

Theses and Dissertations

The assessment of aircraft survivability against explosive munitions is an expensive undertaking. Test articles for both aircraft and weapon are scarce due to their high costs, leading to a limited supply of test data. The development of newer, hopefully more effective weaponry and protection measures continues despite the short supply of test data. Therefore, test organizations need to explore methods for increasing the quality of test results while looking for ways to decrease the associated costs. This research focuses on the Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS) as the weapon of choice and live- re arena testing as the experimental data source. …

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Structure Health Monitoring (Shm) System Trade Space Analysis, Salman A. Albinali, David R. Jacques Jan 2014

Structure Health Monitoring (Shm) System Trade Space Analysis, Salman A. Albinali, David R. Jacques

Faculty Publications

An analytic approach to exploring the tradespace associated with Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems is presented. Modeling and simulation of the life cycle of a legacy aircraft and the expected operational and maintenance events that could occur is shown. A focus on the SHM system detection of a significant crack length and the possibility of False Alarm (FA), miss detection and mishap events is investigated. The modeling approach allows researchers to explore the tradespace associated with safe and critical crack lengths, sensor thresholds, scheduled maintenance intervals, falsely triggered maintenance actions, and mishaps due to missed detections. As one might expect, …

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Modeling Reliability Growth In Accelerated Stress Testing, Jason K. Freels Dec 2013

Modeling Reliability Growth In Accelerated Stress Testing, Jason K. Freels

Theses and Dissertations

Qualitative accelerated test methods improve system reliability by identifying and removing initial design flaws. However, schedule and cost constraints often preclude sufficient testing to generate a meaningful reliability estimate from the data obtained in these tests. In this dissertation a modified accelerated life test is proposed to assess the likelihood of attaining a reliability requirement based on tests of early system prototypes. Assuming each prototype contains an unknown number of independent competing failure modes whose respective times to occurrence are governed by a distinct Weibull law, the observed failure data from this qualitative test are shown to follow a poly-Weibull …

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Deployed Communications In An Austere Environment: A Delphi Study, Andrew Soine, James Harker, Alan R. Heminger Nov 2013

Deployed Communications In An Austere Environment: A Delphi Study, Andrew Soine, James Harker, Alan R. Heminger

Faculty Publications

The information and communications technology (ICT) field is undergoing a period of tremendous change. The exponential growth rate of ICT capability in recent decades, which has had an undeniable effect on every aspect of our society, will likely have ramifications for military operations in austere environments. 1 The Air Force’s 689th Combat Communications Wing commissioned a study to forecast the future of mobile ICT in such environments. Researchers at the Air Force Institute of Technology chose to employ the Delphi technique as the methodology for executing this task. The following scenario, based on the results of that study, demonstrates how …

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Development Of Availability And Sustainability Spares Optimization Models For Aircraft Reparables, Edmund K. W. Pek Sep 2013

Development Of Availability And Sustainability Spares Optimization Models For Aircraft Reparables, Edmund K. W. Pek

Theses and Dissertations

The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) conducts Logistics Support Analysis (LSA) studies in various engineering and logistics efforts on the myriad of weapon systems. In these studies, inventory spares provisioning, availability and sustainability analyses are key focus areas to ensure asset sustenance. In particular, OPUS10, a commercial-off-the-shelf software, is extensively used to conduct reparable spares optimization in acquisition programs. However, it is limited in its ability to conduct availability and sustainability analyses of time-varying operational demands, crucial in Operations & Support (O&S) and contingency planning. As the RSAF seeks force structure expansion to include more sophisticated weapon systems, the …

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Construction, Analysis, And Data-Driven Augmentation Of Supersaturated Designs, Alex J. Gutman Sep 2013

Construction, Analysis, And Data-Driven Augmentation Of Supersaturated Designs, Alex J. Gutman

Theses and Dissertations

Screening designs are used in the early stages of industrial and computer experiments to find the most important input factors affecting a system's output. They provide an economical way to remove unimportant factors from further, potentially costly, experimentation. However, when an experiment has a large number of control factors and limited number of available runs, it is infeasible to run a traditional screening design. In these situations, experimenters can use supersaturated designs. A supersaturated design is a fractional factorial design that can screen a set of k factors in n runs, where k is greater than n -1. Unfortunately, they …

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Current Barriers To Successful Implementation Of Fist Principles, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin Jul 2013

Current Barriers To Successful Implementation Of Fist Principles, Brandon Keller, Joseph R. Wirthlin

Faculty Publications

The Fast, Inexpensive, Simple, and Tiny (FIST) framework proposes a broad set of organizational values, but provides limited guidance on practical implementation. Implementing FIST principles requires clarifying the definitions of “fast,” “inexpensive,” and “simple,” recognizing where FIST does and does not apply. Additionally, a subset of the FIST heuristics was expanded upon to increase their usefulness for practitioners. The primary research findings are that FIST principles are less conducive for highly complex or novel systems, immature technologies, future needs, acquisitions in early development phases, or when performance is the foremost value. FIST principles were also found to be constrained by …

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Space Debris Mitigation Conops Development, Earl B. Alejandro Jun 2013

Space Debris Mitigation Conops Development, Earl B. Alejandro

Theses and Dissertations

Space debris remains an unsolved hazard for space operators and astronomers alike. Passive debris mitigation techniques have been enumerated and codified by the UNCOPUOS and IADC and several proposals for actively mitigating space debris have been presented. However, the space debris problem requires reframing. On the way to developing a viable CONOPS, a multi-disciplinary construct for building solution sets to tackle the space debris problem must be created. It must be shaped by building blocks of active and passive debris mitigation techniques, debris characterization and law. Central considerations must be taken. First, targeting of space debris for removal must be …

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Tanker Acquisition: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Sarah Lynch, Alan R. Heminger, David D. Mattioda May 2013

Tanker Acquisition: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Sarah Lynch, Alan R. Heminger, David D. Mattioda

Faculty Publications

A short examination of air refueling, specifically its past, present, and future, offers valuable insight into the developmental needs of this critical capability. This article seeks not only to showcase an appreciation for the roots of air refueling but also to high- light the requirement for sound systems engineering in conjunction with the creativity and willingness to take risks, as exhibited by our forefathers in the field. These attributes are vital to furthering air- refueling technologies and capabilities as well as refining the some- what flawed tanker-procurement process employed today.

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Operational Planning Of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand, Taylor J. Leonard Mar 2013

Operational Planning Of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand, Taylor J. Leonard

Theses and Dissertations

Past research proposed that it is possible to forecast cargo demand using time series models and that there exists potential cost savings in the way that Civilian Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) is used for cargo airlift. United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) performs annual fixed-buys of CRAF to support airlift needs. Forecasted cargo demand would allow for reasonably accurate cargo projections vs. the current expected value estimation. Accurate forecasting allows for greater fixed-buys, further incentivizing CRAF airlines as well as reducing the number of additional aircraft purchases during the quarterly and monthly buys. Multiple forecasting models are constructed and the results …

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Urgent Aeromedical Evacuation Network Capacity Planning, Scott C. Finkbeiner Mar 2013

Urgent Aeromedical Evacuation Network Capacity Planning, Scott C. Finkbeiner

Theses and Dissertations

Aeromedical Evacuation (AE) has been steadily utilized during Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. AE is a global enterprise. The current structure of AE is facing changes as forces scale down from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. AE will, however, continue to be important in its domestic use in the continental USA (CONUS). Current practice is to pull aircraft (e.g. C-17, C-130 or KC-135) from their normal operations to meet Urgent and Priority patient needs when local alternatives are infeasible. An alternative to the current system would be having a centralized "bed-down" location for AE operations that would house …

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