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Air Force Institute of Technology

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Articles 421 - 450 of 1238

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw Mar 2016

United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force (USAF) is concerned with managing its officer corps to ensure sufficient personnel for mission readiness. Manpower planning for the USAF is a complex process which requires making decisions about accessions. Uncertainty about officer retention complicates such decisions. We formulate a Markov decision process model of the Air Force officer manpower planning problem (AFO-MPP) and utilize a least squares approximate policy iteration algorithm as an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique to attain solutions. Computational experiments are conducted on two AFO-MPP instances to compare the performance of the policy determined with the ADP algorithm to a benchmark …

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Heterogeneous Air Defense Battery Location: A Game Theoretic Approach, Nicholas T. Boardman Mar 2016

Heterogeneous Air Defense Battery Location: A Game Theoretic Approach, Nicholas T. Boardman

Theses and Dissertations

The Unites States and its allies confront a persistent and evolving threat from missile attacks as nations around the world continue to invest and advance their current capabilities. Within the air defense context of a missile-and-interceptor engagement, a challenge for the defender is that surface to air interceptor missile batteries often must be located to protect high-value targets dispersed over a vast area, subject to an attacker observing the disposition of batteries prior to developing and implementing an attack plan. To model this scenario, we formulate a two-player, three-stage, perfect information, sequential move, zero-sum game that accounts for, respectively, a …

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Simulation Of Modeling Sortie Generation Process In Turaf, Bahadir Aykiri Mar 2016

Simulation Of Modeling Sortie Generation Process In Turaf, Bahadir Aykiri

Theses and Dissertations

Simulation is a useful technique for engineers and operations researchers. One of the primary advantages of simulation models is that they are able to provide users with practical feedback when analyzing real-world systems. This thesis builds a discrete event simulation of the sortıe generatıon process, to help decision makers in performing analyses regarding quantity of manpower, bottlenecks in supply and maintenance activities; as well as utilization of maintenance manpower, cost and number of sorties produced in a specific time. We only model one aircraft system with four Line Replacement Units (LRU), but any system and its LRUs can be included …

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Contingency Workload Demand Forecast Techniques For Cargo And Flying Hours, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii Mar 2016

Contingency Workload Demand Forecast Techniques For Cargo And Flying Hours, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii

Theses and Dissertations

Accurate forecasting of contingency workload demand for USTRANSCOM (USTC) is a herculean effort. Transportation Working Capital Fund (TWCF) managers rely on various subject matters outside and within the combatant command to estimate future workload. Since rates are set annually, when TWCF activities use incorrect or incomplete projections of workload, this leads to erroneous price structures and misaligned customer billing rates. The USTC leadership lacks the ability to accurately forecast workload demand, which is a key driver for service provider rate-setting. As a result, some customers perceive spiked rates and seek service from other competitors, which generates lost revenue, customer dissatisfaction …

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Determination Of Fire Control Policies Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Michael T. Davis Mar 2016

Determination Of Fire Control Policies Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Michael T. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

Given the ubiquitous nature of both offensive and defensive missile systems, the catastrophe-causing potential they represent, and the limited resources available to countries for missile defense, optimizing the defensive response to a missile attack is a necessary endeavor. For a single salvo of offensive missiles launched at a set of targets, a missile defense system protecting those targets must decide how many interceptors to fire at each incoming missile. Since such missile engagements often involve the firing of more than one attack salvo, we develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine the optimal fire control policy for the …

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Antecedents Of Fuel Efficiency, James A. Cotton Mar 2016

Antecedents Of Fuel Efficiency, James A. Cotton

Theses and Dissertations

Reducing the United States Air Force (USAF)’s fuel use is a major budgetary concern, as the USAF consumes more fuel than the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and all other Department of Defense (DoD) agencies combined. This research focused on fuel efficiency of C-130 Hercules Aircraft Commanders (ACs) by proposing, constructing, and testing a survey measure of behavioral drivers of discretionary pro-environmental professional behaviors among USAF pilots.

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A Response Surface Validation Of A Quantum Key Distribution Model, Jacob M. Ehrlich Mar 2016

A Response Surface Validation Of A Quantum Key Distribution Model, Jacob M. Ehrlich

Theses and Dissertations

The need for secure communication in the presence of an adversary introduced the field of cryptology -- the practice and study of techniques for secure communication. A common method to secure communication is to distribute a secret key among authorized parties so they can encrypt and decrypt messages between each other. By doing so, ideally, any messages intercepted by a third party are meaningless. An innovative technique to distribute a shared key is Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). QKD uses laws of quantum mechanics to generate and distribute such keys. The purpose of this thesis is to validate an existing mathematical …

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Analysis Of Military Entry Control Point Queueing, Justin J. Dwyer Mar 2016

Analysis Of Military Entry Control Point Queueing, Justin J. Dwyer

Theses and Dissertations

Military Entry Control Facilities (ECFs) are unique service queues that are constrained by space, receive high peak traffic flow, and have a customer base that must receive service. Due to complexity of the interactions within the system, simulations provide input that would be impractical for quantitative experimentation. Our research examines relationships within the ECF in order to develop insights that could lead to more efficient daily operations. We focus the research on interactions that generate a queue length that would interfere with traffic flow surrounding the base. Examining the interactions between multiple arrival rates and service times as well as …

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Epidemiology, Cost, And Aircraft Choice For Aeromedical Evacuation In Africom, Daniel A. Griffith Mar 2016

Epidemiology, Cost, And Aircraft Choice For Aeromedical Evacuation In Africom, Daniel A. Griffith

Theses and Dissertations

A significant shortfall exists in the medical capability provided to US Service members deployed to the African Area of Responsibility because of unknown epidemiology, large distances, limited resources, and high patient movement cost. The first step in closing this gap is to understand the types, demographics, diagnoses, and distribution of the patients requiring aeromedical evacuation. This research examined the DoD’s aeromedical evacuation missions from Africa between 2010 and 2014. Of the 274 patients and 170 missions identified from available data, a gap is evident in aeromedical evacuation capability with over 23% of Priority patients and almost 10% of Urgent patients …

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An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher Mar 2016

An Examination Of Economic Metrics As Indicators Of Air Force Retention, Helen L. Jantscher

Theses and Dissertations

Fluctuations in the economy can cause military recruitment and retention plans to go awry. By focusing on various economic metrics, it is possible to anticipate changes in retention rates for specific Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). To address the challenge of maintaining a robust and mission capable Air Force, a correlation analysis is employed to determine the relationship between certain economic indicators and AFSC retention rates. As one might suspect, retention rates follow the trend of decreasing when the economy is strong. Of interest, we found two AFSCs which go against this trend. Namely, the retention rates for officers in …

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Overhaul Facility Planning And Control Tool Selection And Implementation Analysis, Santiago L. Martin Mar 2016

Overhaul Facility Planning And Control Tool Selection And Implementation Analysis, Santiago L. Martin

Theses and Dissertations

The Argentine Air Force Materiel General Directorate (AAFMGD) has initiated an effort to assure logistical support and to gradually increase the productivity and efficiency of related processes. Within the efforts of increased productivity and efficiency over the AAF Overhauling Facilities, the Planning and Control Departments (PCD) became targets for improvements. These departments are tasked with providing the best certainty and visibility of all assets within their facilities to feed the logistics pipeline, and better support air operations. This thesis, sponsored by the MGD, is focused on achieving improvements in the PCD processes, through an academically rigorous evaluation of confounding factors …

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A "Big Bang" Versus A "Small Bang" Approach: A Case Study Of The Expeditionary Combat Support System (Ecss) And The Maintenance, Repair, And Overhaul Initiative (Mroi), George B. Lafiguera Mar 2016

A "Big Bang" Versus A "Small Bang" Approach: A Case Study Of The Expeditionary Combat Support System (Ecss) And The Maintenance, Repair, And Overhaul Initiative (Mroi), George B. Lafiguera

Theses and Dissertations

In 2003, the United States Air Force embarked on one of the largest and most comprehensive logistical transformation to delineate the logistics community’s strategy for supporting the warfighter. A key aspect of this campaign plan was to leverage information technology through an enterprise resource planning (ERP) solution called the Expeditionary Combat Support System (ECSS), a “big-bang” approach. In early 2012, the ECSS program was cancelled mainly due to uncontrollable increases in costs and schedule overruns. In late 2012, the Air Force Sustainment Center (AFSC) launched the Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul initiative (MROi), a “small-bang” approach, to increase enterprise visibility and …

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The Impact Of Reducing Full Time Support Positions In The U.S. Army National Guard And Reserves, Lucas J. Lease Mar 2016

The Impact Of Reducing Full Time Support Positions In The U.S. Army National Guard And Reserves, Lucas J. Lease

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Army is at a point in its history in which it, along with the other branches of the military, are experiencing cuts, constraints and a tightening of resources. The days of seemingly large budgets, abundant financial resources and high amounts of manpower are becoming a thing of the past. As the government reduces the allocations to the military, it is examining ways to reduce costs and improve its financial prospects. One of the positions examined for reduction or outright elimination is the full time support position in the U.S. Army National Guard (ARNG) and Reserves (USAR). The …

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Long-Term Impacts Of Military Drawdown On The Industrial Base, Anton H. Martyn Mar 2016

Long-Term Impacts Of Military Drawdown On The Industrial Base, Anton H. Martyn

Theses and Dissertations

Since World War II, competition in the defense industry has fallen by over 90 percent. Over half of contracts currently executed by the United States Navy and Air Force are awarded without any competition. With the recent defense budget cuts, and an extended period of reduced defense spending ahead, more of which is going to sustainment and overhead than ever before, each year prime contractors are fighting over an even smaller piece of the procurement pie, which could have a deleterious effect on national security if these contractors go out of business or further consolidate through mergers. This study used …

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Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff Mar 2016

Rate Setting Analysis: A Statistical Approach To Outlier Analysis In The Rate Setting Process Within The United States Transportation Command, Warren B. Mcgriff

Theses and Dissertations

The rate setting process implemented by the USTRANSCOM J8 Program Analysis & Financial Management Directorate (USTC J8 or TCJ8) is of importance, as accurate rates yield proper and equitable recoupment of costs from customers and ensure USTC can achieve an accurate Net Operating Result (NOR) in each given year. This research sought to identify areas in which the current rate setting methodology can be improved. We initially examined the use of six months of historical cost data versus a full year of data to set rates, concluding that there is not a statistically significant difference with respect to their relative …

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Modeling The Components Of An Economy As A Complex Adaptive System, Richard J. Mickelsen Mar 2016

Modeling The Components Of An Economy As A Complex Adaptive System, Richard J. Mickelsen

Theses and Dissertations

Complex systems science is a relatively new discipline and has not been widely applied to the field of economics. Much of current economic theory relies on principles of constrained optimization and often fails to see economic variables as part of an interconnected network. While tools for forecasting economic indicators are based primarily on autoregressive techniques, these techniques are not always well-suited to predicting the future performance of highly volatile data sets such as the stock market. This research portrays the stock market as one component of a networked system of economic variables, with the federal funds rate acting as an …

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Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis To Position Federal Product And Service Codes Within The Kraljic Portfolio Matrix, Robert T. Montgomery Mar 2016

Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis To Position Federal Product And Service Codes Within The Kraljic Portfolio Matrix, Robert T. Montgomery

Theses and Dissertations

Despite the best efforts of the Federal Government to implement strategic sourcing, recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports highlight major procurement deficiencies and encourage the use of commercial best practices to identify and reap substantial savings. The Kraljic Portfolio Matrix (KPM) is considered the premier tool for purchasing organizations to determine which commercial best practices to utilize for different categories of spend. However, critics of the KPM point to its lack of analytical rigor and the absence of a simplistic quantitative methodology for implementation. The Air Force Installation Contracting Agency (AFICA), the centralized procurement arm for 79 USAF installations worldwide, …

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Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations, Thomas M. Dickey Mar 2016

Modeling And Economy’S Dynamics And External Influences Through A System Of Differential Equations, Thomas M. Dickey

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes a methodology to develop models for the greater understanding of the application of the economic instrument of national power through a selection of factors that define the economic condition of a country. The major components of an economy are identified as GDP per capita, a treasury bond yield, and a major stock market index. The components have interconnected dynamics along with external influences from the United Stated Federal Funds Rate and foreign direct investment. These connections are considered through a metamodel in the form of a system of differential equations which is solved as an inverse problem. …

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A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross Mar 2016

A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross

Theses and Dissertations

Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …

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Optimizing Forecasting Methods For Ustranscom Railcar Demands, James M. Park Mar 2016

Optimizing Forecasting Methods For Ustranscom Railcar Demands, James M. Park

Theses and Dissertations

The United States military heavily relies on rail freight operations to meet many of its logistical needs during both peacetime and wartime efforts. As the head organization responsible for managing and overseeing all modes of military transportation, United States Transportation Command depends on timely accurate railcar demand forecasts to drive critical decisions on distribution and placement of railcar assets. However, the intermittent nature of railcar demands based on location and commodity make it a challenging task for forecasters. Furthermore, these “lumpy” demands often come without any obvious trends or seasonality. This study explores the utility of both traditional forecasting methods …

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Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron, Abdurrahman Sevimli Mar 2016

Sortie Generation Simulation Of A Fighter Squadron, Abdurrahman Sevimli

Theses and Dissertations

The Turkish Air Force utilizes several fighter squadrons to enhance its military capabilities. One of the most critical challenges for these squadrons is generating sorties to meet the currency and demand during both peacetime and wartime. This sortie generation process directly affects the success of both training and operations. In this study, this process is assessed using a discrete event simulation. Air Force decision makers require a simulation tool to conduct “what-if” analysis on how potential changes in the environment affect an F-16 fighter squadron’s sortie generation process. Creating a usable simulation provides decision makers with a flexible tool to …

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Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter Mar 2016

Methods To Address Extreme Class Imbalance In Machine Learning Based Network Intrusion Detection Systems, Russell W. Walter

Theses and Dissertations

Despite the considerable academic interest in using machine learning methods to detect cyber attacks and malicious network traffic, there is little evidence that modern organizations employ such systems. Due to the targeted nature of attacks and cybercriminals’ constantly changing behavior, valid observations of attack traffic suitable for training a classifier are extremely rare. Rare positive cases combined with the fact that the overwhelming majority of network traffic is benign create an extreme class imbalance problem. Using publically available datasets, this research examines the class imbalance problem by using small samples of the attack observations to create multiple training sets that …

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A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich Mar 2016

A Model Of Ambient Noise Caused By Wind Flow, Jovan Popovich

Theses and Dissertations

The generation of noise caused by wind owing past a human ear is an important yet vastly understudied factor in determining the ambient noise of an environment experienced by a human observer. Sound level measurements were obtained from wind tunnel tests simulating a human experiencing wind ows at various speeds and from various directions. This data set was used in this thesis. This thesis presents a collection of models for predicting wind noise levels across a broad spectrum of frequencies based on wind speed and angle inputs. Graphical approaches are included to characterize the observed data and illustrate the models' …

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Increased Capacity Utilizing Aggregation And Consolidation Of Contingency Cargo, Cassidy L. Wilson Mar 2016

Increased Capacity Utilizing Aggregation And Consolidation Of Contingency Cargo, Cassidy L. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

Maximizing use of limited airlift assets is a common problem during large contingency operations. Requirements often exceed airlift capacity and fiscal constraints driving the need to aggregate conveyance loads both within and across business lines (Unit Line Number (ULN), Special Assignment Airlift Mission (SAAM), and sustainment). Current methods of consolidation are completed by planners at the 618th Air Operations Center. This process is completed by piecing email correspondence and making individual localized decisions which are not always consistent with big picture efficiency. United States Transportation Command requested a study to create standard business rules or a methodology that can benefit …

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Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens Mar 2016

Application Of Non-Rated Line Officer Attrition Levels And Career Field Stability, Christine L. Zens

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force monitors the strength of its active duty officer force and attempts to achieve the difficult challenge of employing a diversity of talent among career specialties and experience levels. This study completes two objectives, predicting future manning levels for 23 career fields, and providing a statistical framework to assess the stability of these fields. The first part of the study applies regression and survival analysis to subpopulations within the active duty Air Force officer corps, and then aggregates them by year to forecast future personnel levels. Four career fields are considered, including Acquisitions (ACQ), Logistics (LOG), Support (SPT), …

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Application Of System Engineering Leading Indicators To Scrum Agile Projects, Eric M. Shirley Mar 2016

Application Of System Engineering Leading Indicators To Scrum Agile Projects, Eric M. Shirley

Theses and Dissertations

SCRUM Agile metrics and System Engineering Leading Indicators (SE LIs) are measures used to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of a project across its lifecycle. The application of metrics can provide information on both internal resources and external project stakeholder requirements and constraints, showing past changes, trends, and potential future impacts. Both SCRUM Agile and SE LIs are designed to give a systems engineer/project manager insight into development progress allowing for progress to be checked at regular intervals as well as early corrective actions to be taken if necessary. This research applied SE LIs to a SCRUM Agile project to …

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Improving System Design Through The Integration Of Human Systems And Systems Engineering Models, Michael E. Watson Mar 2016

Improving System Design Through The Integration Of Human Systems And Systems Engineering Models, Michael E. Watson

Theses and Dissertations

The human is a critical aspect of many systems, but frequently there is a failure to properly account for human capabilities and involvement during system design. This inattention results in systems with higher lifecycle costs, decreased user compatibility, and the potential to produce disastrous consequences. This research presents an approach to integrating the human into system models by using two methods: static and dynamic modeling. The static method uses a user-centered design framework to create system- and human-centered models that deconstruct the system and user into their respective components. These models are integrated to create system models that include relevant …

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Lifecycle Cost Evaluation Of Flexible Facility Designs, Trevor P. Ellis Mar 2016

Lifecycle Cost Evaluation Of Flexible Facility Designs, Trevor P. Ellis

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to ascertain the type of facility design, standard, robust, or flexible, that yields the greatest lower lifecycle costs (LCC) savings to the USAF. To this aim, the researcher constructed a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the LCC for flexible, robust, and standard administrative facility designs for thousands of potential facility lifecycles. The simulation also illustrates the circumstances under which each type of design would result in the lowest LCC. The results of this research will show the USAF the importance of focusing on LCC and designing flexible facilities. Standard and robust designs are the …

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Additive Manufacturing Process Parameter Effects On The Mechanical Properties Of Fused Filament Fabrication Nylon, Eric S. Holm Mar 2016

Additive Manufacturing Process Parameter Effects On The Mechanical Properties Of Fused Filament Fabrication Nylon, Eric S. Holm

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to determine how varying Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF) process parameters affect the mechanical properties of PA6 nylon dog-bone specimens produced on the Mark One 3D Printer. A design of experiment (DOE) was conducted using the factors of layer height and raster angle orientation. The mechanical properties measured in the experiment were tensile modulus, yield stress, percent strain at yield, ultimate tensile strength and percent strain at break. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed to identify which factors were statistically significant in influencing mechanical properties. Results of the ANOVA showed that layer height was …

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Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (Uav) Operators’ Workload Reduction: The Effect Of 3d Audio On Operators’ Workload And Performance During Multi-Aircraft Control, Sungbin Kim Mar 2016

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (Uav) Operators’ Workload Reduction: The Effect Of 3d Audio On Operators’ Workload And Performance During Multi-Aircraft Control, Sungbin Kim

Theses and Dissertations

The importance and number of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations are rapidly growing in both military and civilian applications. This growth has produced significant manpower issues, producing a desire that multiple aircraft are controlled by a single operator as opposed to the current model where one aircraft may require multiple operators. A potential issue is the need for an operator to monitor radio traffic for the call signs of multi-aircraft. An investigation of the use of 3D sound was undertaken to investigate whether an automatic parser, which preselected the spatial location of relevant versus irrelevant call signs, could aid UAV …

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