Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

The Characteristics Of Successful Military It Projects: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, Helene Berg, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

In the armed forces, successful digitalization is crucial to ensure effective operations. Much of the existing literature on project factors during the planning and execution phases of public IT projects do not focus specifically on military sector projects. Therefore, the paper aims to provide empirical insights into the characteristics of successful military IT projects. Data from such projects in NATO countries and agencies were collected through interviews and project documents. The findings relating to the main variable of interest, “delivery of client benefit,” supported previous findings on IT project performance. Medium-sized projects performed better than small and large projects, and …

Cost Estimation Trends For Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Sammantha Jones, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

The authors use both descriptive and inferential techniques to investigate average and standard deviation trends in cost estimates for major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) grouped into decades from the 1970s to 2010s. For total program-cost-growth factors (CGFs), the 2010s exhibited lower CGFs compared to the 1990s. For the program-acquisition-unit cost (PAUC) CGFs, the 2010s appear lower than the 1990s and borderline lower than the 1970s. A statistically significant decreasing trend in the standard deviations of total program CGFs throughout the decades was identified. This lowering variability trend also appeared for PAUC CGFs from the 1980s onward. This finding appears to …

Domain Restriction Zones: An Evolution Of The Military Exclusion Zone, Cole M. Mooty, Robert A. Bettinger, Mark G. Reith

Faculty Publications

Since the early part of the twenty-first century, US adversaries have expanded their military capabilities within and their access to new warfighting domains. When faced with the growth of adversaries’ asymmetric capabilities, the means, tactics, and strategies previously used by the US military lose their proportional effectiveness. To avoid such degradation of capability, the operational concept of the military exclusion zone (MEZ) should be revised to suit the modern battlespace while also addressing the shifts in national policy that encourage diplomacy over military force. The concept and development of domain restriction zones (DRZs) increase the relevancy of traditional MEZs in …

A Case For An Independent Cyber Force, Ian C. Heffron, Mark Reith, James W. Dean

Faculty Publications

Although cyberspace is considered the newest warfighting domain, military analysts and scholars have opined the United States remains woefully behind its peers in cyberspace and have called for the creation of a separate cyber service component. Yet a cohesive and robust discussion on this topic has yet to emerge. This article proposes a general framework that builds on the Joint doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy (DOTMLPF-P) analysis to address questions of sufficiency and necessity. Such analysis reveals DoD cyber operations do not maximize the United States’ ability to fight a cyber war, especially when …

Imparting Systems Engineering Experience Via Interactive Fiction Serious Games, Thomas C. Ford, David Long, Echo Ford

Faculty Publications

Serious games for education are becoming increasing popular. Interactive fiction games are some of the most popular in app stores and are also beginning to be heavily used in education to teach analysis and decision-making. Noting that it is difficult for systems engineers to experience all necessary situations which prepare them for the role of a chief engineer, in this paper, we explore the use of interactive fiction serious games to impart systems engineering experience and to teach systems engineering principles. The results of a cognitive viability, qualitative viability, and replayability analysis of 14 systems engineering serious games developed in …

Design And Analysis Of Asymmetric “String-Of-Pearls” Common Repeating-Ground-Track Satellite Constellations For Missions Requiring Regional Coverage, Nathaniel Choo

Theses and Dissertations

Satellite constellation design must balance many factors that emerge from multiple sources, including environmental hazards and competing mission objectives. The dynamic nature of space systems makes the problem of ‘optimal’ satellite constellation design even more challenging. Restricting satellite constellation designs to predefined geometric frameworks can alleviate many challenges associated with the design problem; however, it raises an important question: which geometric framework performs best for each mission set? This research leverages simulations, metaheuristics, and mathematical programming techniques to address this question for missions focusing on Earth-observation of one or more regions.

First, this research captures the current state of satellite …

Portfolio Optimization Using Value Focused Thinking, Tyler Martin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the application of Value Focused Thinking (VFT) and multi-objective portfolio optimization to create a well-aligned portfolio for an organization faced with over 50 alternatives and limited funding. A novel technique is proposed to develop an optimized portfolio based on VFT scores, utilizing heuristic approaches like evolutionary algorithms. The research outcomes include an optimized portfolio, the total value evaluation of alternatives, and a sensitivity analysis. The new approach outperforms the organization’s previous method, resulting in a portfolio that better addresses the organization’s core values and objectives, scoring 21.21% higher.

Effects Of Individual Strategies For Resource Access On Collaboratively Maintained Irrigation Infrastructure, Jordan L. Stern, Afreen Siddiqi, Paul N. Grogan

Faculty Publications

Built infrastructure for water and energy supply, transportation, and other such services underpins human well-being and socioeconomic development. A fundamental understanding of how infrastructure design and user strategies interact can guide important design decisions as well as policy formulation for ensuring long-term infrastructure viability in conjunction with improved individual user benefits. In this work, an agent based model (ABM) is developed to study this issue for the specific case of irrigation canals. Cooperatively maintained irrigation canals serve essential roles in sustaining agriculture-based economies in many regions. Canal system design can strongly affect benefits derived by distributed users, regional agricultural output, …

Fast And Accurate 3d Object Reconstruction For Cargo Load Planning, Adam R. Nasi

Theses and Dissertations

Cargo load planning involves efficiently packing objects into aircraft subject to constraints such as space and weight distribution. Currently, this is performed manually by loadmasters. The United States Air Force is investigating ways to automate this process in order to improve airlift operational readiness while saving money. The first step in such a process would be generating 3D reconstructions of cargo objects to be used by a load planning algorithm. To that end, this thesis presents a novel method for fast, scaled, and accurate 3D reconstruction of cargo objects. This method can scan a 2.5m×3m×2m object in less than 10 …

An Analysis On Recommended United States Air Force Additive Manufacturing Construction Unit Type Code Package For Expeditionary Deployment, Caleb G. Dann

Theses and Dissertations

Additive Manufacturing Construction (AMC) is an emerging technology in the construction industry which utilizes 3-D printing to reduce costs, labor requirements and deviations in quality. This technology has the ability to rapidly produce repeatable construction projects while tailoring each to specific requirements through the use of 3-D designs. One of the primary objectives of the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) is to continue meeting mission demands with a greater focus on the efficient use of resources. AMC has the ability to satisfy the requirements of this objective. The United States Air Force has begun initial print trials but have not …

Investigation Of Rhine Pointing As A Solution To The Aircraft Human Machine Interface Problem, Alexandra C. Dobranski, Samuel J. Medvec

Theses and Dissertations

The human machine interface in 5th generation aircraft has not evolved proportionally with advances in display size and data density. The traditional cursor slew method fails to rapidly relocate the cursor, especially on large displays. Previous studies at the Air Force Test Pilot School and Air Force Institute of Technology identified methods that have the potential to improve the human machine interface. This research expanded upon those studies by providing an assessment of head tracking technology as a secondary method of cursor manipulation. Specifically, this study examined the effects that visual feedback (visible and invisible head tracking cursors) and cursor …

A Systems Modeling Approach To Support Human-Agent Team Performance For Combat Identification, Clayton W. Couch

Theses and Dissertations

Combat Identification (CID) in an air-to-air combat context is a highly complex cognitive task that requires the operator to make rapid, high consequence decisions. To accomplish CID, fighter aircrew must attend to and perceive a broad range of information while concurrently building situation awareness (SA) and conducting other tasks. While existing automated agents are available to help fighter aircrew with this CID task, they are designed for a very narrow subset of the overall task and are not well suited for human-agent teaming. An interdependence analysis of the human operator and supporting machine agents conducted for this task support the …

Team And Skill Matching For Disaster Recovery Operations, Emily B. Frahm

Theses and Dissertations

United States Air Force (USAF) bases are key power projection platforms that ensure mission readiness and help bring humanitarian aid to locations in need. Recovering airfields after attack or natural disaster is a key mission of USAF civil engineers, and accomplishing this repair as swiftly as possible is key to maintaining our position in the global order. Accomplishing a disaster recovery project is a set of teams, each assigned to a specific task, and made up of a series of personnel. The question answered within this paper is: how do we match the right person with the appropriate skills to …

An Analysis Of A Modular Open System Approach On Program Management Metrics For Cost And Schedule, Kayla I. Vogler

Theses and Dissertations

A modular open system approach (MOSA) and its inclusion of open architecture are among the prevailing acquisition strategies for cost and schedule management. This approach involves the incorporation of reusable, modular packages that can be incrementally added and upgraded throughout programs’ lifecycles. Many practitioners throughout the acquisitions community find that MOSA enables better opportunities for affordability, rapid acquisition, flexibility, enhanced competition, and innovation. A literature review reveals that few studies examine the interaction between MOSA and the extent to which it influences cost and schedule performance. However, no studies to date examine open architecture’s impact via programmatic evaluation of Earned …

Information System Availability Status And Its Impact On Customer Wait Times, Joshua A. Cramer

Theses and Dissertations

The Military Personnel Flight relies on Air Force Information Systems, specifically the Defense Enrollment Eligibility and Reporting System (DEERS), to manage the personnel records. When DEERS experiences a failure, then the operational ability of the Military Personnel Flight is affected. This study aims at identifying the impact Air Force information system’s availability status has on customer wait times using linear regression.

U.S. Army Force Structure Optimization And Sufficiency Analysis, Francis P. Gargin

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Army perpetually deploys rotational forces across the globe in support of the National Security Strategy. These forces meet a set of discrete mission demands over an extended time period before redeploying, modernizing, and preparing for the next deployment. The U.S. Army now utilizes the Regionally Aligned Readiness and Modernization Model to execute these cyclical stages for unit deployments. Specific emphasis is placed on aligning forces against a Geographic Combatant Command, which allows units to build readiness and lethality oriented towards the same series of threats, physical terrain, and civilian considerations. This research provides an Integer Programming model …

Rate Effects In Aircraft Learning Curves, Caleb J. Ahern

Theses and Dissertations

Across the Department of Defense (DoD), a wide variety of analytical tools are employed by cost analysts to estimate weapon system costs. One of the techniques widely employed by practitioners is the learning curve (LC). Although learning curves have been widely studied, using rate-adjustments or production rate effects (PRE), their usage have only intermittently been evaluated in place of using the traditional learning curve. Previous studies analyzing production rate found mixed results. This research aims to examine aircraft production data to determine if production rate model is preferrable in United States Air Force programs. Additionally, this PRE research seeks to …

Classification And Analysis Of Twitter Bot And Troll Accounts, Callan P. Mccormick

Theses and Dissertations

This research trains, tests, and analyzes bot and troll classification models using publicly available, open source datasets. Specifically, it applies decision tree, random forest, feed forward neural networks, and long-short term memory neural networks with hyperparameters tuned via designed experiment to five labeled bot datasets created between 2011 and 2020 and one dataset labeling state-sponsored disinformation accounts or trolls. The first three models utilize account profile features, while the last model applies natural language processing techniques, specifically GloVe embedding, to analyze a user’s Tweet history. Results indicate that the random forest model outperforms the other three models with an average …

An Analysis Of Aircraft Maintenance Leading Indicator Metrics To Unit-Level Aircraft Availability Rates, William C. Hardy

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to improve the usefulness of data that is already collected within aircraft maintenance organizations to better identify trends, and outliers, and possibly better explain relationships between leading and lagging indicator metrics. Specifically, this graduate research paper sought to answer two research questions addressing what aircraft maintenance metrics significantly impact aircraft availability, and how to measure those to understand which metrics impact aircraft availability most. The research questions were answered through a comprehensive literature review, and the use of multiple linear regression analysis on data from two specific aircraft maintenance organizations from the same location. …

Lunar Search And Rescue: The Next Step For Human Spaceflight Recovery, Benjamin J. Johnis

Theses and Dissertations

Humans return to the Moon in 2024 under the NASA Artemis mission. Commercial space explorations are rapidly expanding. The sudden increase of human spaceflight calls for increased emphasis on space rescue. These revelations drove an AFRL/AFIT capability gap assessment to provide specific proposals for a modern space rescue program guided by Transaction Cost Economics Theory. The mission analysis arms USSPACECOM and NASA to coordinate an interagency approach to Lunar Search and Rescue, positioning America to compete in the new space race. The strategic consequences of failing to act could fundamentally jeopardize American leadership in space.

Pattern Of Life Modeling On Maritime Vessels With Bayesian Inferencing, Miles A. Kelly

Theses and Dissertations

Despite decades of research, maritime traffic models’ limited predictive power continues to constrain their operational utility. We build on previous pattern of life modeling algorithms and contribute a Bayesian inferencing model for anomaly detection. Our probabilistic approach provides decision makers the capability to tailor the belief threshold for identifying anomalies and to enact a measured response based on the degree of abnormality. We perform a case study to evaluate the results, verifying that our Bayesian inferencing method accurately refines its probability when given the location and time of a ship of interest, and serving as a proof of concept for …

Integrating Ace And Mca Requirements Into The Civil Engineer Officer Occupational Competency Framework, Stone D. Williford

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Civil Engineer officer career field has made dedicated efforts to the professional development of its company grade officers. In response to the 2015 Air Force Strategic Master plan, the Civil Engineer officer career field adopted a competency-based education approach. In 2020, the Civil Engineer Officer Career Field Education and Training Plan was published, officially integrating the career field’s operational requirements into a competency framework. However, since 2020, the Air Force has adopted an updated force generation strategy, and with it, changes to the way the Air Force assets are employed in contingency environments. This new scheme of …

Designing A Counter-Iads Drone Swarm: Using Evolution To Evaluate Combat Assumptions Underpinning Drone Swarm Target Assignment, Olin H. Kennedy

Theses and Dissertations

The original research goal was to combine the best techniques in the drone swarm literature and model a functional combat drone swarm that conducts a Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) mission. However, the body of literature regarding Drone Swarm Target Assignment (DSTA) does not model enemy counteraction and assumes that the drones’ targets are compliant against destruction. Therefore, a model of enemy counteraction against drone swarms is developed, and Novel DSTA (NDSTA) is proposed to respond to the weaknesses of the current DSTA. Both methods of target assignment are combined with a tunable trajectory generation model, and the performance …

Bayesian Recurrent Neural Networks For Real Time Object Detection, Stephen Z. Kimatian

Theses and Dissertations

Neural networks have become increasingly popular in real time object detection algorithms. A major concern with these algorithms is their ability to quantify their own uncertainty, leading to many high profile failures. This research proposes three novel real time detection algorithms. The first of leveraging Bayesian convolutional neural layers producing a predictive distribution, the second leveraging predictions from previous frames, and the third model combining these two techniques together. These augmentations seek to mitigate the calibration problem of modern detection algorithms. These three models are compared to the state of the art YOLO architecture; with the strongest contending model achieving …

Hierarchical Federated Learning On Healthcare Data: An Application To Parkinson's Disease, Brandon J. Harvill

Theses and Dissertations

Federated learning (FL) is a budding machine learning (ML) technique that seeks to keep sensitive data private, while overcoming the difficulties of Big Data. Specifically, FL trains machine learning models over a distributed network of devices, while keeping the data local to each device. We apply FL to a Parkinson’s Disease (PD) telemonitoring dataset where physiological data is gathered from various modalities to determine the PD severity level in patients. We seek to optimally combine the information across multiple modalities to assess the accuracy of our FL approach, and compare to traditional ”centralized” statistical and deep learning models.

Air Force Cadet To Career Field Matching Problem, Ian P. Macdonald

Theses and Dissertations

This research examines the Cadet to Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC) Matching Problem (CAMP). Currently, the matching problem occurs annually at the Air Force Personnel Center (AFPC) using an integer program and value focused thinking approach. This paper presents a novel method to match cadets with AFSCs using a generalized structure of the Hospitals Residents problem with special emphasis on lower quotas. This paper also examines the United States Army Matching problem and compares it to the techniques and constraints applied to solve the CAMP. The research culminates in the presentation of three algorithms created to solve the CAMP and …

Advancing Autonomous Swarm Behavior In A Simulated Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Chad P. Macwilkinson

Theses and Dissertations

Advancements in modern IADS have bolstered A2AD environments and subsequently degraded the advantages that the Air Force once held, prompting a call to reform the nature of warfare in order to challenge these threats. A solution is weapon swarming technology, which has the ability to overwhelm IADS by engagement of a large numbers of low-cost, but lethal air assets that have autonomous functionalities. This research proposes the application of a four dimensional framework for autonomy to a swarm of cruise missiles. A virtual A2AD environment of two opposing forces is constructed using the AFSIM, wherein a manned bomber seeks to …

Uncertainty Quantification In Federated Learning For Persistent Post-Traumatic Headache, Byungmoo Brian Kim

Theses and Dissertations

A post-traumatic headache (PTH), resulting from a mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), potentially develops into persistent post-traumatic headache (PPTH). Although no known cure for PPTH exists, research has shown that receiving treatment at earlier stages of PTH lowers the risk of patients developing PPTH. Previous studies have shown machine learning (ML) models capable of predicting a patient’s PTH progression, but none have considered the issue of protecting patient privacy. Due to patient privacy, ML models only have access to data within the institution. Federated learning (FL) harnesses data from separate institutions without sacrificing patient privacy as institutions can run ML …

An Approximate Dynamic Programming Approach For Solving An Air Combat Maneuvering Problem With Directed Energy Weapons, Elisha A. Palm

Theses and Dissertations

Performing within visual range (WVR) air combat involves the execution of complex air maneuvers and rapid sequential decision making. The complexity of these decisions can increase even further when including additional weapon capabilities. The advancement of unmanned autonomous vehicle technology and weapon capabilities can help combat the hindrance that comes with human limitations. Autonomous unmanned combat aerial vehicles (AUCAVs) and the implementation of advanced weapon capabilities such as Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) can prove to be vital in a WVR air combat context. This derives the question – Can AUCAV’s possess the proper artificial intelligence and weapon capabilities to attain …

A Transformer Based Architecture For Indonesian Sentiment Analysis - Exploring Indobert Variations, Training Size, And Self-Supervised Model Training, Connor F. Shaw

Theses and Dissertations

There is strong motivation in both civilian and military circles to understand the attitudes, motivations, feelings, and emotions of a population of interest. Social media is a rich source of self-disclosed information by individuals from all walks of life about virtually every domain of the human experience, but the vast quantity of data is impossible to effectively analyze without advanced natural language processing algorithms. This research creates a transfer learning based emotion classification model for Indonesian language Twitter data. Transfer learning consists of two steps: pre-training and fine tuning. Three variations of Indonesian Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (IndoBERT) are …