Electrical and Electronics Commons^™

Wind Energy And Ireland: Could Forecasting Errors Lead To A Flawed Market?, Michael Mcdonald, Thomas Woolmington, Keith Sunderland

Conference papers

This paper explores wind energy forecasting consistency by considering the error benchmarks associated with the generation output of a small wind farm in comparison to the national forecasting as provided by Eirgrid, the Irish TSO. This percentage error analysis will contrast the predicted (Eirgrid) capacity and actual wind energy output observations (Wind farm) and postulations that consider alternative prediction metrics are discussed. The findings suggest that in monthly like for like comparisons over a twelve month period, total MWh percentage errors of -0.36% and 5.7% are observed respectively for the actual generation and the forecasted …