Engineering Commons^™

Precipitation Trends Over The Indus Basin, Nir Krakauer, Tarendra Lakhankar, Ghulam Hussain Dars

Publications and Research

A large population relies on water input to the Indus basin, yet basinwide precipitation amounts and trends are not well quantified. Gridded precipitation data sets covering different time periods and based on either station observations, satellite remote sensing, or reanalysis were compared with available station observations and analyzed for basinwide precipitation trends. Compared to observations, some data sets tended to greatly underestimate precipitation, while others overestimate it. Additionally, the discrepancies between data set and station precipitation showed significant time trends in many cases, suggesting that the precipitation trends of those data sets were not consistent with station data. Among the …

Climate Change, Spring/Summer 2007, Issue 16

Sustain Magazine

No abstract provided.

Aesthetics, Ethics, And Lose-Lose Dilemmas In The Anthropocen, Adam Liska

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Anthropogenic climate change will cause violence to increase globally, and nonlinear increases in sea level could cause a major escalation in global conflict. After 2100, a 22-meter sea-level rise is estimated here to dislocate two billion people from coastal areas. These impending civilization-changing events require us to again reevaluate our prevalent aesthetic preferences for luxury that produce a significant fraction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Due to industrial inertia, a central dilemma discussed here is the contradictions between the goals and impacts of aesthetics and ethics. Either we lose our own well-being (a loss of high-emission aesthetics) for the benefit …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …

Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes …

Planning For Climate Change: The Need For Mechanistic Systems-Based Approaches To Study Climate Change Impacts On Diarrheal Diseases, Jonathan E. Mellor, Karen Levy, Julie Zimmerman, Mark Elliott, Jamie Bartram, Elizabeth Carlton, Thomas Clasen, Rebecca Dilingham, Joseph Eisenberg, Richard Guerrant, Daniele Lantagne, James Mihelcic, Kara Nelson

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying …

Methane Emissions As Energy Reservoir: Context, Scope, Causes And Mitigation Strategies, Xiaoli Chai, David J. Tonjes, Devinder Mahajan

Technology & Society Faculty Publications

Methane (CH4) is now considered a bridge fuel between present fossil (carbon) economy and desired renewables and this energy molecule is projected to play an important role in the global energy mix well beyond 2035. The atmospheric warming potential of CH4 is 28-36 times, when averaged over a 100-year period, that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and this necessitates a close scrutiny of global CH4 emissions inventory. As the second most abundant greenhouse gas (GHG), the annual global CH4 emissions were 645 million metric tons (MMT), accounting for 14.3% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Of this, five key anthropogenic sources: …

Evaluating Groundwater Recharge In The Saloum Region Of Senegal, Alexander Wohlgemuth

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Approximately 1.2 billion people in the world live in an area facing physical, or absolute, water scarcity (defined as access to less than 1,000 cubic meters of water). This number is projected to increase to 1.8 billion by the year 2025. Thirty-eight percent of the world’s population lives in arid, semi-arid or dry subhumid regions, which translates to a high dependence on the 30% of the world’s freshwater present in the ground. Further, the rate of water use is increasing rapidly – between two and two and a half times that of population growth, over the last century.

In regions …

Pathogen Removal In Natural Wastewater Treatment And Resource Recovery Systems: Solutions For Small Cities In An Urbanizing World, Matthew Eric Verbyla

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Sanitation, renewable energy, and food security are among the most pressing global development needs of the century, especially for small cities with rapid population growth. Currently, 53% of the world’s population either lacks access to improved sanitation or discharges fecal waste to the environment without treatment. Furthermore, 80% of food consumed in developing regions is produced by 500 million small farms, and while many of them are still rain-fed, irrigated agriculture is increasing. The post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals, recently adopted by the United Nations, include targets to address the water-energy-food nexus. Wastewater reuse in agriculture can be an important solution …

Climate Change Implications For Health-Care Waste Incineration Trends During Emergency Situations, Emilia Mmbando Raila

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Healthcare waste (HCW) incineration practices in the global South countries are among the major sources of black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke. This study analyzes HCW incineration trends during emergency situations and smoke from HCW incineration processes in Haiti. The study was prompted by the current arguments about the climate change and the growing health effects associated with BC emissions. The conceptual framework was based on both adverse health effects from BC emissions exposure and climate change potential of BC emissions. Therefore, the goal was to determine whether cardboard HCW sharps containers emit lower BC emissions to the atmosphere during …

Irrigation Demand In A Changing Climate: Using Disaggregate Data To Predict Future Groundwater Use, Calvin R. Shaneyfelt

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The paper estimates an irrigation water demand function using disaggregate climate and well data over a 33 year time period. Aggregating climate information over long periods, like a year, causes a loss of detail on temporal climatic variation, while aggregating climate information over space causes a loss of detail on spatial variation. This analysis uses disaggregate climate variation at a temporospatial level to determine the effects of climate on groundwater use. Results show that increased heat, measured in cooling degree-days, correlates with increased water use, while increased precipitation correlates with decreased water use. However, the effects are generally magnified for …

Understanding The Global Energy Crisis, Eugene D. Coyle, Richard A. Simmons

Purdue University Press Books

We are facing a global energy crisis caused by world population growth, an escalating increase in demand, and continued dependence on fossil-based fuels for generation. It is widely accepted that increases in greenhouse gas concentration levels, if not reversed, will result in major changes to world climate with consequential effects on our society and economy. This is just the kind of intractable problem that Purdue University’s Global Policy Research Institute seeks to address in the Purdue Studies in Public Policy series by promoting the engagement between policy makers and experts in fields such as engineering and technology.

Major steps forward …

On Target For People And Planet: Setting And Achieving Water-Related Sustainable Development Goals, Julie Van Der Bliek, Peter G. Mccornick, James Clarke

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Our specific focus in this book is on securing water for sustainable food production. This links to sustainable water resources management, delivering on the water supply and sanitation requirements and provisioning water for energy and the urban sector. A specific intent is to ensure that the realities in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia are recognized and to provide practical pathways to change that fit these realities and the aspirations of those countries. This will help to prepare for the next step in the SDG [sustainable development goals] process: devolving the SDGs to the national level. It will …

Integrated Remote Sensing And Forecasting Of Regional Terrestrial Precipitation With Global Nonlinear And Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals Using Wavelet Analysis, Lee Mullon

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on terrestrial climate dynamics throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that teleconnections can be used for climate prediction across a wide region at sub-continental scales. Yet these studies tend to have large uncertainties in estimates by utilizing simple linear analyses to examine chaotic teleconnection relationships. Still, non-stationary signals exist, making teleconnection identification difficult at the local scale. Part 1 of this research establishes short-term (10-year), linear and non-stationary teleconnection signals …

Tackling Change: Future-Proofing Water, Agriculture, And Food Security In An Era Of Climate Uncertainty, Peter G. Mccornick, Vladimir Smakhtin, Luna Bharati, Robyn Johnston, Matthew Mccartney, Fraser Sugden, Floriane Clement, Beverly Mcintyre

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

In 1950 the global population was just over 2.5 billion. Now, in 2013, it is around 7 billion. Although population growth is slowing, the world is projected to have around 9.6 billion inhabitants by 2050. Most of the population increase will be in developing countries where food is often scarce, and land and water are under pressure. To feed the global population in 2050 the world will have to produce more food without significantly expanding the area of cultivated land and, because of competition between a greater number of water users, with less freshwater. On top of land and water …

Climate Change Impacts On Rainfed Corn Production In Malawi, Kondwani Msowoya

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy in Malawi and accounts for 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90% of the export revenues. Corn (maize) is the major cereal crop grown as staple food under rainfed conditions, covers over 92% of the total agricultural area, and contributes 54% of the caloric intake. Corn production is the principle occupation and major source of income for over 85% of the total population in Malawi. Issues of hunger and food insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. Global warming is expected to cause climate change …

A Critical Analysis Of The Kyoto Protocol Using Monte Carlo Simulation And Magicc, Penny Lambert

The Plymouth Student Scientist

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997. Emissions data from national registries were used to quantify the total anthropogenic emissions of signatory parties between 1990 and 2009, found to have been reduced by approximately 18 percent of base year levels. Using IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) as a practicable baseline for non-mitigation, three distinct intervention scenarios were constructed from target and observed emissions reductions under the Protocol to investigate their climatic implications against unabated anthropogenic carbon by the end of the 21st century. MAGICC Version 5.3 was used to model forecast …

Agenda: 2012 Energy Justice Conference And Technology Exposition, University Of Colorado Boulder. Center For Energy & Environmental Security, University Of Colorado Boulder. Colorado European Union Center Of Excellence, University Of Colorado Boulder. Presidents Leadership Institute

2012 Energy Justice Conference and Technology Exposition (September 17-18)

Co-sponsored with the Colorado European Union Center of Excellence and the Presidents Leadership Institute at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The ability to harness energy is fundamental to economic and social development. Worldwide, almost 3 billion people have little or no access to beneficial energy resources for cooking, heating, water sanitation, illumination, transportation, or basic mechanical needs. Energy poverty exacerbates ill health and economic hardship, and reduces educational opportunities, particularly for women and children. Specifically, access to efficient and affordable energy services is a prerequisite for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) relating to poverty eradication.

In response, the UN …

Improving Complementary Methods To Predict Evapotranspiration For Data Deficit Conditions And Global Applications Under Climate Change, Fathi M. A. Anayah

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

A reliable estimate of evapotranspiration (ET) in river basins is important for the purpose of water resources planning and management. ET represents a significant portion of rainfall in the water budget; therefore, the uncertainty in estimating ET can lead to the inaccurate prediction of water resources. While remote sensing techniques are available to estimate ET, such methods are expensive and necessary data may not be readily available. Classical methods of estimating ET require detailed land use/cover information that are not readily available in rural river basins. Complementary methods provide simple and reliable approaches to estimate ET using meteorological data only. …

A Look At 20th Century Droughts, Vijay P. Singh, Ashok K. Mishra

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Droughts exercise a profound effect on the social and economic fabric of nations. Many nations of the world experienced droughts encompassing the full spectrum of severity, areal extent and duration. The result has been that the economic development was hampered and many countries have not yet recouped fully from the ravages of droughts. The first decade of the 21st century has also witnessed varying degrees of droughts across the globe. Therefore, we ask the following questions: (a) Do droughts affect every part of the world? (b) Are there similarities in major droughts around the world? (c) Are climate change and …

Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

This paper examines potential regional-scale impacts of climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on the hydrologic system, soil and groundwater salinity with associated crop yield reductions. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which were downscaled to the 1,400 km2 study area. We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant uncertainty in projected precipitation creates …

Water Resources, Health, And The Sustainability Of Interventions To Achieve Water And Sanitation Targets Of The Millennium Development Goals In A Changing World, Lauren M. Fry

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports - Open

This dissertation addresses sustainability of rapid provision of safe water and sanitation required to meet the Millennium Development Goals. Review of health-related literature and global statistics demonstrates engineers' role in achieving the MDGs. This review is followed by analyses relating to social, environmental, and health aspects of meeting MDG targets.

Analysis of national indicators showed that inadequate investment, poor or nonexistent policies and governance are challenges to global sanitation coverage in addition to lack of financial resources and gender disparity. Although water availability was not found to be a challenge globally, geospatial analysis demonstrated that water availability is a potentially …

Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, Evan H. Girvetz, Chris Zganjar, George T. Raber, Edwin P. Maurer, Peter Kareiva, Joshua J. Lawler

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Background: Although the message of ‘‘global climate change’’ is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: …

Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change In The Western Hemisphere, Joshua J. Lawler, Sarah L. Shafer, Denis White, Peter Kareiva, Edwin P. Maurer, Andrew R. Blaustein, Patrick J. Bartlein

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we …

Planning And Adaptation Measures For Urban Slum Communities In West Africa : Stochastic Rainfall Modeling Applied To Domestic Rainwater Harvesting And Climate Change Adaptation, Joshua R. Cowden

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports - Open

Over half of the world’s population is living in urban settlements, and most urban growth is occurring in developing countries. These countries’ economies are often unable to accommodate these rural-urban immigrations, resulting in millions of people settling in insecure communities known as urban slums. Current efforts to prevent urban slums include UN-HABITAT strategies to upgrade slums and stimulate urban/regional development. Urban metabolism analysis, which studies material and energy flows/stocks through urban processes, help decision-makers better understand their urban system. Nine lessons from past urban metabolism studies are presented to assist in finding answers on how to best solve urban slum …

Detection Of Intensification Of The Global Water Cycle: The Potential Role Of Friend, Alan D. Zeigler, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, Bart Nijssen, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Diagnostic studies of 14-year, 2 — 2°, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model off-line simulations of the global terrestrial water budget suggest that, given the annual variability in the major components of continental hydrological cycles (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff), several decades to perhaps centuries of measurements may be needed to detect with high confidence the intensification predicted by recent global climate model (GCM) studies simulating plausible global warming scenarios. Furthermore, these measurements may need to originate from a wider geographic expanse than is currently investigated within large-scale hydrological assessment programmes, such as the Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX). Smaller, geographically …