Engineering Commons^™

Predicting Rainfall-Induced Movements Of Slides In Stiff Clays, Michele Calvello, Leonardo Cascini

Geohazards

A physically-based numerical method is presented for displacements hazard analyses, at large-scale, in the case of landslides characterized by movements along pre-existing slip surfaces induced by rainfall-triggered pore pressure fluctuations. The method comprises a transient seepage finite element analysis and a kinematic model. With reference to the latter, the rates of displacement are assumed to be of the viscous type and are related to the factors of safety along the slip surface computed performing time-dependent limit equilibrium analyses. Monitoring data from an active slide in Central Italy are then used both for calibrating the models, by means of an inverse …

Simulation Of Socio-Economic Impacts Due To Seismic Damage Of Tehran Water Network, Reza Rasti, Farshad Vazinram

Geohazards

In recent years, the massive losses caused due to big earthquakes in urban areas. These cause significant casualties and losses. The economic losses exceed several billions dollars per year. The loss may be categorized in two types of direct and indirect loss. Direct economic losses occur just during the earthquakes or immediately after them. Indirect losses are resulted from direct losses. These losses are obtained in Tehran due to damage of Water Network. A scenario earthquake that would severely damage the city is assumed. The acceleration and velocities are determined in Tehran GIS map. The vulnerability coefficient for pipe via …

Earthquake-Induced Landslides In Colombia, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez

Geohazards

Landslides due to earthquakes in Colombia have been historically reported since 1530 when ground cracking, soil movements and liquefaction events were induced by an earthquake which magnitude has not been defined. Since then more than thirty earthquakes have been identified to have produced landslides in the country, in some cases consequences related to landslides have been more significant than those due to direct effects of the earthquake itself.

The author has compiled a database of landslides induced by earthquakes in Colombia from which relationships between earthquake magnitude and landslide characteristics have been explored. It has been found that residual and …

The Hazard Assessment In A Terraced Landscape: Preliminary Result Of The Liguria (Italy) Case Study In The Interreg Iii Alpter Project, G. Brancucci, G. Paliaga

Geohazards

In steep areas the lack of terrain suitable to farming has induced man to modify the slopes with terraces. In the ligurian territory (northern Italy) above the twenty per cent of the total surface area have been changed by means of terraces. Terraces may be regarded as a human interference with the geomorphic system, which drives the evolution of the terrestrial surface. This interference actually causes the increase of the hazard particularly in those areas where the morphology hardly constrains the urbanisation. The preliminary results here presented are part of the hazard assessment task of the EU Interreg III Alpter …

Comparison Of Risk Management Policies In Oecd Countries, Reza Lahidji

Geohazards

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development started in 2003 a series of country studies and reviews aimed at assisting its Member countries in evaluating the effectiveness of their risk management systems, notably in terms of their ability to contend with large-scale risks of the future, and at offering them guidance in making the requisite improvements. The project, entitled the OECD Futures Project on Risk Management Policies, focuses on the consistency of risk management policies and on their ability to deal with the challenges, present and future, created by the evolution of the risk landscape.

The Project gathers eight Member …

Cost Evaluation For Traffic And Transport Infrastructure Projects Taking Account Of Project Risks, Rudolf Poettler, H. F. Schweiger

Geohazards

The realisation of large transport infrastructure projects is influenced by a wide range of different factors. The general expectation that a project should be carried out under defined boundary conditions within the planned period and on budget requires a high level of design, planning and controlling. This paper discusses standardised comprehensible fundamental rules and guidelines for defining project costs and project budgets of infrastructure projects taking into account risk assessment and risk management. Adhering to these guidelines and rules contributes to ensure that the structure can be built in the required quality, on schedule and on budget, as well as …

Integrating Physical Accessibility Of Emergency Establishments Into Earthquake Risk Assessment, Kivanc Ertugay, Sebnem Duzgun

Geohazards

Human being has always been in a continual struggle with disasters. They are mostly sudden and unexpected and cause irreversible damages to human life and property. Disasters are facts of life, but it is always possible to decrease the effects of disasters by preparedness. In disaster case, accessibility is one of the most vital and important components of disaster preparedness and mean the difference between loosing a life or saving a life. That is why emergency accessibility, regardless if it is measured in time, distance, population or any other cost, is the most important variable that decision makers must consider …

Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment: The Socio-Economic Dimension Of Earthquake Risk In The Urban Area, Sibel Kalaycioglu, Helga Rittersberger-Tilic, Kezban Celik, Fatime Günes

Geohazards

Understanding and formulation of risk of a natural disaster requires consideration of every aspect of risk, which can be handled by development of integrated approaches. In such integrated approaches, several discipline’s views are incorporated into risk assessment to see the whole picture. Hence, the risk which can be experienced before and / or after a natural disaster should be a common concern for both natural and social disciplines and should be handled through a interdisciplinary approach. A field research was conducted with 1500 households, selected through stratified random sampling, using the database obtained from the Eskisehir Greater Metropolitan Municipality. Interviews …

Dealing With Uncertainty In Engineering Design For Large-Scale Gravel Soil Slopes In The Three Gorges Reservoir Zone, Wilson H. Tang, L. M. Zhang, Y. R. Zheng

Geohazards

The objective of this paper is to first present a general formulation for analysis of uncertainties and evaluation of risks associated with large-scale slopes. The risks may be expressed in terms of the reliability of the system and the consequence. Preliminary studies regarding the mitigation of landslides in the Three-Gorge reservoir zone (TGRZ) of the Yangtze River is presented next. At the normal water level of 175 m, the Three-Gorge reservoir stretches for 665 km along the Yangtze River and extends into many tributaries. Some 684 colluvial deposits, ancient slides and hanging rock blocks, which are larger than 100,000 m3 …

Urban Earthquake Risk, Mustafa Erdik

Geohazards

The impact of earthquakes in urban areas is a complex problem compounded by multi-hazard and consequential risk issues, enormous inventory of vulnerable physical elements and the attendant socio-economic problems. A review of our state-of-knowledge and applications on the assessment of urban earthquake risk is provided. Rational urban risk predictions and expected losses from major earthquakes in the future serve the basis and also provide strong reasons for the proactive risk mitigation activities.

Dam Risk Analysis Using Bayesian Networks, Marc Smith

Geohazards

The risks related to existing hydraulic structures have been analyzed using bayesian networks. The proposed multidisciplinary approach allowed the comparison, according to the probability of failure being used as a common denominator, of the geotechnical, hydrological and structural risks. The factors contributing the most to the overall risk have been identified as well as the interventions to be realized in priority. The presented concepts consider dam risk in a more global and holistic way.

Mapping Expert Uncertainties Or Confidence Level In Mining Risk Prevention Plans, M. Cauvin, T. Verdel, R. Salmon, C. Didier

Geohazards

Mining Risk Prevention Plans have been developed in France in order to deal with “Post-Mining” issues in a rapid and operational way. This inevitably implies that the final result of those risk analyses might contain a significant part of uncertainty. The study presented herein introduces a framework and some tools that allow experts to express the confidence they have in their evaluation and raise the main difficulties they face in their daily work.

Risk Assessment Due To Debris Flows In Paz De Río-Colombia, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez, O. I. Chaparro, G. Flechas

Geohazards

Paz de Río is an important economic area of Colombia where iron mines produce most of the mineral for the steel production in the country. Along the La Chapa creek some debris flows have occurred since 1963 producing economic losses and human deaths at Santa Teresa village. Economical losses are related to disruption of the main access to La Chapa iron mine facilities, and flooding of Paz de Río due to damming of Chicamocha River, the main drainage system of the region, which is blocked by debris flows.

The local authority for Natural Disaster Management (CREPAD) jointly with the Universidad …

Landslide Hazard Assessment At “Sakhalin-2” Main Pipeline Project, S. I. Matsiy, A. P. Sheglov, D. V. Pleshakov

Geohazards

In the given article, 2 various approaches to a landslide hazard assessment are considered. Landslide hazard means probability of a slope failure. The calculations have been carried out using a landslide hazardous section of Sakhalin-2 main pipeline route as an example.

Influence Of Degrading Permafrost On Landsliding Processes: Little Salmon Lake, Yukon Territory, Canada, R. Lyle, D. Jean Hutchinson

Geohazards

A landslide inventory was carried out for the Little Salmon Lake area, Yukon Territory, Canada, in response to observations of several new landslides in the area, suspected to be the result of degrading permafrost. The largest of these landslides, the Magundy River bi-modal flow-slide, has progressed over the last decade until it now involves over 1x106 m3 of material. The inventory is based on terrain mapping and field work, and includes multiple landslide types. The field work provided the opportunity to examine the slides, ground truth the map, and to examine the progression of the landslide, as well as the …

Age Dating Of Karst Forms Upon Regional Assessment Of Karst Hazard (A Case Study Of The Tatarstan Republic, Russia), V. A. Yolkin

Geohazards

The detailed investigations accompanied by collection of forty samples for radiocarbon and palynological analyses from six poorly and well-marked in a relief karst and karst-suffosion sinkholes, have shown, that the largest of them (diameter more than 30 m) are up to 5 - 10 thousand years, and the smaller size up to 2 - 3 thousand years. The marked karst forms - lakes, hollows and the depression reaching in diameter 200 - 300 m and more, were formed due to merging of separate forms and, most likely, have a long pre-Holocene history. The general procedure of regional probabilistic-deterministic assessment of …

Warning System For Natural Threats, Herbert Einstein, R. Sousa

Geohazards

Warning systems are an essential component of risk management for natural threats. They trigger active and/or passive countermeasures. This paper introduces the need for and use of warning systems through the review of recent major natural disasters (the Sumatra Tsunami, the 2005 Alpine Flood, the 2005 Hurricanes, Katrina and Rita) but also the potential flu pandemic. Positive and negative lessons are drawn from these cases. This is followed by a review of two specific warning systems which together with the preceding cases leads to a list of requirements for warning systems.

These reviews also show that it is desirable to …

On The Acceptable Risk For Structures Subjected To Geohazards, D. Diamantidis, S. Duzgun, F. Nadim, M. Wöhrle

Geohazards

Geohazards such as earthquakes or landslides represent a major risk to structures. In this contribution risk acceptance criteria for structures subjected to geohazards are reviewed. Especially the implementation of human safety and cost benefit considerations are discussed. Current trends in the definition of target safety criteria for structures subjected to earthquakes and landslides are presented and conclusions regarding codified criteria are drawn.

Evaluation Of Liquefaction Susceptibility For Microzonation And Urban Planning, Atilla Ansal, Gokce Tonuk

Geohazards

Various procedures were developed to evaluate liquefaction susceptibility of soil layers for implementing engineering remediation measures. The approach that has gained wide acceptance within the framework of urban planning is to establish microzonation maps with respect to liquefaction susceptibility to mitigate possible earthquake damage related to liquefaction. In this context, microzonation maps were produced recently for six municipalities in Turkey as a part of a major Pilot Project. Two variables are required for the assessment of liquefaction resistance of sandy soil layers; the seismic demand expressed in terms of cyclic stress ratio, CSR; and the capacity of the soil layers …

Instrumentation Of Flexible Buried Culvert Subjected To Rockfall Loading, R. Ebeltoft, J. O. Larsen, S. Nordal

Geohazards

Natural hazards, like avalanches and rock falls, will always be a major concern for infrastructure, i.e. roads and railways, in mountain areas. Several measures are available to protect this infrastructure, but especially in areas with steep slopes, rockfall- or avalanche galleries are commonly used. These structures, which are made to withstand high impact forces, can be made of reinforced/pre-stressed concrete culverts covered with soil. A possibly cheaper and equally safe alternative could be to use a buried corrugated steel culvert.

To investigate the use of buried corrugated steel culverts as rock fall protection structures an experimental study has been carried …

The Importance Of Laboratory Experiments In Landslide Investigation, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, D. Renk, T. Marcher, Wolfgang Fellin

Geohazards

This study focuses on a better understanding of mass movements and on the influences of different boundary conditions on velocities of creeping slopes. A well monitored example of a slowly creeping landslide is the mass movement Hochmais - Atemkopf, situated in the Kaunertal, Tyrol, Austria (Fig. 1). The long term monitoring program for more than 40 years of this landslide gives a good impression of its time dependent behaviour. A large amount of additional data, as geological mapping, boreholes, geophysical investigation and so on provides a funded base for the model’s geometry. The most influencing factor for finite element …

Landslide Hazard In El Salvador, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez, A. T. Torres, E. A. León

Geohazards

The destructive seismic events of January 13 (ML: 7.6) and February 13 (ML: 6.1) 2001 in El Salvador, with origin in the subduction area and the volcanic chain, respectively, provide an ideal scenario to analyse the factors that define the landslide hazard in this country. In this paper we analysed the events in terms of strong-motion and precedent climatic condition and their relation with the landslides induced; establishing a great opportunity to compare some hazard assessment methods as those proposed by Mora and Vahrson (1994) and Rodríguez (2001) which define the hazard in terms of the interaction between triggering agents …

Hazards, Climate Change And Extreme Weather Events, Christian Jaedicke, Kalle Kronholm, Anders Solheim, Ketil Isaksen, Dagrun Vikhamar, Kari Sletten, Lars Harald Blikra, Asgeir Sorteberg, Asbjørn Aaheim

Geohazards

Geohazards are events related to geological features and processes that cause loss of life and severe damage to property and the natural and built environment. The most common and destructive geohazards in Norway are snow avalanches, clay-, debris- and rock slides, and floods, which together caused more than 2000 deaths during the last 150 years. Statistically, about 10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the next 50-100 years, each with possibly 20-100 deaths, unless preventive planning and actions are made. In addition to the loss of lives, geohazards pose a large impact on infrastructure and the …

Seismic Hazards For Lifelines, Farshad Vazinram, Reza Rasti

Geohazards

The response of lifelines against earthquakes and seismic hazard effects on them are studied in this paper. As lifelines pass through wide areas, it may be affected by many seismic hazards. These hazards are such as ground rupture, fault movement, landslides and large deformation due to liquefaction. Based on the experiences from past earthquakes, damages to the lifelines with attention to damaged parts are classified and illustrated. This classification is based on the damages of body, joints, facilities and serviceability. Since the buried lifelines are filled with some materials with almost same unit weight of soil, their seismic response characteristics …

3d Visualization For Urban Earthquake Risk, S. Kemec, S. Duzgun

Geohazards

Visualization is the graphical presentation of information, with the goal of improving the viewer’s understanding of the information contents. As today’s world is getting richer in information, visualization of the information is important for effective communication and decision making. In this study, generation of a 3D city model in CAD environment and its use in a spatial decision support system for earthquake risk in an urban area is presented. As CAD products’ quality is more enhanced than the other tools the 3D city model is generated in CAD environment. In CAD environment, a 2D building foot print vector layer is …

Tsunami Relief Work - Biopesticide Spray Operations - A Case Study, Kadarkarai Murugan

Geohazards

Tsunami occurred on 26th December, 2004 and in India more than 8000 people were killed due to the massive attack. The worst affected districts in Tamil Nadu were Viz., Velankanni, Nagapattinam and Cuddalore, Tamil Nadu, India. Official sources said that due to massive death of animals and human beings, the public health has been affected/spoiled and it will cause further outbreak of infectious diseases like diarrhea, cholera and mosquito transmitting diseases. After a week there were incidents of outbreak of mosquito transmitting diseases such as malaria, and dengue. Tsunami had caused a mixing of animal debris in the breeding ground …

Hydrodynamics And Rheology: Key Factors In Mechanisms Of Large Landslides, L. Bonzanigo, P. Oppizzi, M. Tornaghi, A. Uggeri

Geohazards

When checking the behaviour of large landslides, deterministic stability analysis has little sense. Stability coefficients can only be seen as the relationship between acting and reacting forces. In fact, large landslides simply move in any case, more or less quickly. When stable, the displacements are actually so small that they aren't detectable. Thus the so called security factor could always be set to unity, and the computations performed as back analysis. The transition from a very slow viscous displacement to a catastrophic failure is better described in a change of rheological behaviour than in an overtaking of a stability coefficient. …

Integrated Database For Rapid Mass Movements In Norway, Christian Jaedicke, Karstein Lied, Halvor Juvet, Kalle Kronholm

Geohazards

Rapid mass movements include all kinds of slides in geological material, snow or ice. Traditionally, information about such events is collected separately in different databases covering selected geographical regions and event types. In Norway the terrain is susceptible to all types of rapid mass movements ranging from single rocks hitting roads and houses to large avalanches and huge rock falls where entire mountainsides collapse into fjords creating flood waves and endangering large areas. In addition, quick clay slides occur in desalinated marine sediments in south eastern and mid Norway. For the authorities and inhabitants of endangered areas, the type of …

Prediction Of Complex Systems Using Grey Models, Dirk Proske, P. H. A. J. M. Van Gelder

Geohazards

Complexity is an inherent property of the world known. According to Kolmogoroff Randomness and Complexity are connected. Therefore the description of randomness using stochastical procedures has been widely used. Nevertheless other methods might be used to predict complex systems, such as Grey Models.

In this paper the occurrence of extreme water levels along the Dutch north-sea has been investigated using Grey Models. Other applications are possible and have been carried out by the authors, such as identification of damaged elements in reinforced concrete structural elements.

Risk Analyses And Risk Management - Slope Instabilities In Alpine Environments, S. Eder, G. Poscher, C. Prager

Geohazards

Two prominent deep-seated gravitational slope deformations in the Eastern Alps (Tyrol, Austria) have been activated in the last seven years and pose serious threats to the densely populated valleys. Based on multidisciplinary field investigations, different hazard scenarios of slope failures have been evaluated for risk management processes. These event scenarios, which are characterised by strongly varying volumes of the failing slide masses as well as by different probabilities of occurrence, and varying disintegration factors control different accumulation and damage scenarios. Finally, these evaluations and risk analyses aimed to define “design events”, i.e. which scenarios are relevant for the dimensioning of …