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Articles 91 - 120 of 259
Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis
Have We Solved The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle?, Kewei Hou, Roger Loh
Have We Solved The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle?, Kewei Hou, Roger Loh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose a simple methodology to evaluate a large number of potential explanations for the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and subsequent stock returns (the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle). We find that surprisingly many existing explanations explain less than 10% of the puzzle. On the other hand, explanations based on investors’ lottery preferences, short-term return reversal, and earnings shocks show greater promise in explaining the puzzle. Together they account for 60-80% of the negative idiosyncratic volatility-return relation. Our methodology can be applied to evaluate competing explanations for a broad range of topics in asset pricing and corporate finance.
The Microstructure Behavior Of Sgx Nikkei 225 Index Futures Resulting From Component Changes Of The Underlying Cash Market Index, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri
The Microstructure Behavior Of Sgx Nikkei 225 Index Futures Resulting From Component Changes Of The Underlying Cash Market Index, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Vasan Siraprapasiri
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study the effect of changes involving component stocks of the Nikkei 225 stock index on the behavior of the Nikkei 225 index futures. Specifically, we examine the effects of component changes of the Nikkei 225 on the volume, returns, volatility, and bid-ask spreads (BAS) on its corresponding futures contract traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). We find that trading volume increases and the bid-ask spread decreases but there is no significant change in the returns of the SGX Nikkei 225 index futures after a component change takes place. This does not support the Price Pressure Hypothesis, which states that …
Institutional Trading During A Wave Of Corporate Scandals: 'Perfect Payday'?, Gennaro Bernile, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Wang
Institutional Trading During A Wave Of Corporate Scandals: 'Perfect Payday'?, Gennaro Bernile, Johan Sulaeman, Qin Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the role of institutional trading during the option backdating scandal of 2006-2007. Unlike their inability to anticipate other corporate events, institutional investors as a group display negative abnormal trading imbalances (i.e., buy minus sell volumes) in anticipation of firm-specific backdating exposures. Consistent with informed trading, the underlying trades earn positive abnormal short- and long-term profits. Moreover, the negative abnormal imbalances are larger in magnitude when backdating is likely a more severe issue. Local institutions, in particular, display negative trading imbalances earlier in event-time and earn consistently higher trading profits than non-local institutions. Although we find some evidence …
Trading Costs On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Yung Chiang Yang
Trading Costs On The Stock Exchange Of Thailand, Nattawut Jenwittayaroje, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Yung Chiang Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines the components of trading costs incurred in trading large and liquid stocks listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. We find that aggressive orders pay an immediacy price measured by price impact, whereas executed passive orders gain the immediacy price. We also find a sizable opportunity cost from the unexecuted portion of a limit order that more than offsets the benefit obtained from the partial fulfillment of the order. The total trading cost, which includes price impact and opportunity cost, is positively related to order size and stock price volatility, but negatively associated with firm size, stock …
Tail Event Driven Asset Allocation: Evidence From Equity And Mutual Funds Markets, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, David K. C. Lee, Sergey Nasekin, Xinwen Ni, Alla Petukina
Tail Event Driven Asset Allocation: Evidence From Equity And Mutual Funds Markets, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, David K. C. Lee, Sergey Nasekin, Xinwen Ni, Alla Petukina
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The correlation structure across assets and opposite tail movements are essential to the asset allocation problem, since they determine the level of risk in a position. Correlation alone is not informative on the distributional details of the assets. Recently introduced TEDAS -Tail Event Driven ASset allocation approach determines the dependence between assets at tail measures. TEDAS uses adaptive Lasso based quantile regression in order to determine an active set of negative nonzero coefficients. Based on these active risk factors, an adjustment for intertemporal correlation is made. In this research authors aim to develop TEDAS, by introducing three TEDAS modifications differing …
Does Brand Licensing Increase A Licensor's Shareholder Value?, Adina B. Robinson, Kapil R. Tuli, Ajay K. Kohli
Does Brand Licensing Increase A Licensor's Shareholder Value?, Adina B. Robinson, Kapil R. Tuli, Ajay K. Kohli
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study examines 171 brand licensing announcements and subsequent changes in the licensor firms' shareholder values using the event study method. We find that although brand licensing announcements lead to positive abnormal returns on average, nearly 44% of the announcements in our sample are followed by negative abnormal returns. We argue that investors react more favorably to a brand licensing announcement when they believe (i) the brand has greater ability to stimulate licensee product sales (and thus generate higher royalties for the licensor) and (ii) the licensor firm has greater ability to limit licensee opportunism (and thus limit brand dilution …
When Everyone Misses On The Same Side: Debiased Earnings Surprises And Stock Returns, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
When Everyone Misses On The Same Side: Debiased Earnings Surprises And Stock Returns, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In event studies of capital market efficiency, an earnings surprise has historically been measured by the consensus error, defined as earnings minus the consensus or average of professional forecasts. The rationale is that the consensus is an accurate measure of the market’s expectation of earnings. But since forecasts can be biased due to conflicts of interest and some investors can see through these conflicts, this rationale is flawed and the consensus error a biased measure of an earnings surprise. We show that the fraction of forecasts that miss on the same side (FOM), by ignoring the size of the misses, …
Asset Allocation In The Chinese Stock Market: The Role Of Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu
Asset Allocation In The Chinese Stock Market: The Role Of Return Predictability, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this article the authors investigate asset allocation in the Chinese stock market from the perspective of incorporating return predictability. Based on a host of return predictors, they find significant out-of-sample return predictability in the Chinese stock market. They then examine the performance of active portfolio strategies—such as aggregate market timing as well as industry, size, and value-rotation strategies—designed to profitably exploit return predictability. Strong evidence is found by the authors that these portfolio strategies incorporating return predictability can deliver superior performance—up to 600 basis points per annum and almost double the Sharpe ratios—compared with the passive buy-and-hold benchmarks that …
Corporate Social Performance, Analyst Stock Recommendations, And Firm Future Returns, Xueming Luo, Heli Wang, Sascha Raithel, Qinqin Zheng
Corporate Social Performance, Analyst Stock Recommendations, And Firm Future Returns, Xueming Luo, Heli Wang, Sascha Raithel, Qinqin Zheng
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study posits that security analysts heed corporate social performance information and factor it into their recommendations to general investors. In particular, as corporate social performance is often uncertain and ambiguous to general investors, analysts may serve as the informational pathway connecting corporate social performance to firm stock returns. Thus, we argue that analyst recommendations mediate the relationship between corporate social performance and firm stock returns. On the basis of not only a qualitative study with literature searches and interviews of stock analysts but also a quantitative study with two longitudinal samples of large firms, we find support for these …
Limited Attention, Marital Events, And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo
Limited Attention, Marital Events, And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We explore the impact of limited attention on investment performance by analyzing the returns of hedge fund managers who are distracted by personal events such as marriage and divorce. We find that marriages and divorces are associated with significantly lower fund alpha, during the six-month period surrounding the event and for up to two years after the event. Relative to the pre-event window, fund alpha falls by an annualized 8.50 percent during a marriage and 7.39 percent during a divorce. Busy fund managers who manage larger funds and engage in high tempo investment strategies are more affected by marriage. Fund …
Analyst Price Target Expected Returns And Option Implied Risk, Turan G. Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Scott Murray
Analyst Price Target Expected Returns And Option Implied Risk, Turan G. Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Scott Murray
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to the market's required rate of return. Using this measure, we show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis derived from option prices are positively related to ex-ante expected returns. We then decompose the risk measures into systematic and unsystematic components and find that while expected returns are related to both systematic and unsystematic …
Industry-Based Style Investing, Russell Jame, Qing Tong
Industry-Based Style Investing, Russell Jame, Qing Tong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Motivated by the style investing model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003), we examine the industry-wide investment decisions of retail investors. We find that retail investor industry demand is highly correlated and strongly related to past industry returns. Moreover, industries heavily bought by retail investors over the past year significantly underperform industries heavily sold over the subsequent year. Similarly, stocks in industries heavily bought by retail investors underperform stocks in industries heavily sold, even after controlling for firm-level demand. Our results suggest that industry-wide categorization influences the investment decisions of retail investors and has a significant impact on asset prices.
Does Option Trading Convey Stock Price Information?, Jianfeng Hu
Does Option Trading Convey Stock Price Information?, Jianfeng Hu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
After executing option orders, options market makers turn to the stock market to hedge away the underlying stock exposure. As a result, the stock exposure imbalance in option transactions translates into an imbalance in stock transactions. This paper decomposes the total stock order imbalance into an imbalance induced by option transactions and an imbalance independent of options. The analysis shows that the option-induced imbalance significantly predicts future stock returns in the cross section, but the imbalance independent of options only has a transitory price impact. Further investigation suggests that options order flow contains important information about the underlying stock value.
Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Forecasting The Equity Risk Premium: The Role Of Technical Indicators, Christopher J. Neely, David E. Rapach, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Academic research relies extensively on macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with relatively little attention paid to the technical indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by comparing the predictive ability of technical indicators with that of macroeconomic variables. Technical indicators display statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power, matching or exceeding that of macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, technical indicators and macroeconomic variables provide complementary information over the business cycle: technical indicators better detect the typical decline in the equity risk premium near business-cycle peaks, whereas macroeconomic variables more readily pick up the …
The Price Discovery Puzzle In Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions For Different Contracts, David K. Ding, Yiuman Tse, Michael R. Williams
The Price Discovery Puzzle In Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions For Different Contracts, David K. Ding, Yiuman Tse, Michael R. Williams
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The People's Bank of China (PBC) lifted yuan trading restrictions in July of 2010 that led to offshore yuan spot trading in Hong Kong. Based on causality analyses, we find that price discovery is absent between the onshore and offshore spot markets. However, we document the presence of price discovery between onshore spot and offshore nondeliverable forward (NDF) rates. These seemingly inconsistent results present a puzzle wherein one offshore market appears to be more informationally integrated with the onshore market than another. We conclude that price discovery differences in the offshore markets stem from the offshore spot and forward contracts …
Institutional Presence, Johan Sulaeman, Chi Shen Wei
Institutional Presence, Johan Sulaeman, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose an Institutional Presence (IP) measure to capture the latent role of non-owner institutional investors who nevertheless may be observing a firm. We employ this measure to examine whether the ‘presence’ of institutional investors reduces information asymmetry in the market. Firms in areas with high institutional presence experience higher liquidity, faster information incorporation, lower costs of equity capital, and less financing frictions relative to firms in low IP areas. The results hold after controlling for firm and geographical characteristics including institutional ownership and urban locality. Our findings indicate that being in the presence of institutional investors brings tangible benefits.
Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain
Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose and empirically examine a comprehensive measure of institutional trading frictions to include the dimensions of price impact, quantity of execution, return dynamics, speed of execution or order splitting, and trading commissions. Our empirical analysis reveals that various hidden components of institutional trading frictions such as adverse selection and clean-up costs are persistent and could add significantly to previously measured directly observable components of transaction costs. Our simultaneous system of equations accounts for the endogeniety in institutional order aggressiveness based on potentially superior information as well as order splitting strategies in the implementation stage to reduce transaction costs. Order …
Investor Heterogeneity, Investor-Management Disagreement And Share Repurchases, Sheng Huang, Anjan V. Thakor
Investor Heterogeneity, Investor-Management Disagreement And Share Repurchases, Sheng Huang, Anjan V. Thakor
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper develops and tests a new theoretical explanation for stock repurchases. Investors may disagree with the manager about the firm's investment projects. A repurchase causes a change in the investor base as investors who are most likely to disagree with the manager tender their shares. Therefore, a firm is more likely to buy back shares when the level of investor-management agreement is lower, and agreement improves as a consequence. Moreover, dispersion of opinion among investors cannot explain repurchase activity once the stock price and investor-management agreement are controlled for. Overall, the evidence is consistent with firms strategically using repurchases …
Shackling Short Sellers: The 2008 Shorting Ban, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang
Shackling Short Sellers: The 2008 Shorting Ban, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles M. Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In September 2008, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) temporarily banned most short sales in nearly 1,000 financial stocks. We examine the ban's effect on market quality, shorting activity, the aggressiveness of short sellers, and stock prices. The ban's effects are concentrated in larger stocks; there is little effect on firms in the lower half of the size distribution. Although shorting activity drops by about 77% in large-cap stocks, stock prices appear unaffected by the ban. All but the smallest quartile of firms subject to the ban suffer a severe degradation in market quality.
Stock Picking, Industry Picking And Market Timing In Sell-Side Research, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach
Stock Picking, Industry Picking And Market Timing In Sell-Side Research, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their stock recommendations. For example, a ‘buy’ for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its peers in the same sector (“industry benchmarkers”), while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform the market (“market benchmarkers”), or just some absolute return (“total benchmarkers”). We use these benchmarks to analyze the role of stock picking, industry picking and market timing in contributing to the performance of stock recommendations. We are able to do so given that different benchmarks suggest the use of different sets of abilities. Analysis of the …
How Important Are Earnings Announcements As An Information Source?, Sudipta Basu, Truong Duong, Stanimir Markov, Eng Joo Tan
How Important Are Earnings Announcements As An Information Source?, Sudipta Basu, Truong Duong, Stanimir Markov, Eng Joo Tan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In a competitive information market, no single information source is likely to dominate all other sources collectively, but a single source can dominate all or most other sources individually. We explore whether earnings announcements constitute such a dominant source using Ball and Shivakumar’s R2 metric: the proportion of the variation in annual returns explained by earnings announcement returns. We find that earnings announcement R2 is 11% -- higher than the corresponding R2 of returns on days with dividend announcements, management forecasts, preannouncements, 10-K and 10-Q filings and amendments. Only the four largest realized absolute daily returns in a year match …
Uncovering Hedge Fund Skill From The Portfolio Holdings They Hide, Vikas Agarwal, Wei Jiang, Yuehua Tang, Baozhong Yang
Uncovering Hedge Fund Skill From The Portfolio Holdings They Hide, Vikas Agarwal, Wei Jiang, Yuehua Tang, Baozhong Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper studies the “confidential holdings” of institutional investors, especially hedge funds, where the quarter-end equity holdings are disclosed with a delay through amendments to Form 13F and are usually excluded from the standard databases. Funds managing large risky portfolios with nonconventional strategies seek confidentiality more frequently. Stocks in these holdings are disproportionately associated with information-sensitive events or share characteristics indicating greater information asymmetry. Confidential holdings exhibit superior performance up to 12 months, and tend to take longer to build. Together the evidence supports private information and the associated price impact as the dominant motives for confidentiality.
Short Selling And The Price Discovery Process, Ekkehart Boehmer, Juan Julie Wu
Short Selling And The Price Discovery Process, Ekkehart Boehmer, Juan Julie Wu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that stock prices are more accurate when short sellers are more active. First, in a large panel of NYSE-listed stocks, intraday informational efficiency of prices improves with greater shorting flow. Second, at monthly and annual horizons, more shorting flow accelerates the incorporation of public information into prices. Third, greater shorting flow reduces post-earnings-announcement drift for negative earnings surprises. Fourth, short sellers change their trading around extreme return events in a way that aids price discovery and reduces divergence from fundamental values. These results are robust to various econometric specifications, and their magnitude is economically meaningful.
Stochastic Dominance Analysis Of Cta Funds, Hooi Hooi Lean, Kok Fai Phoon, Wing Keung Wong
Stochastic Dominance Analysis Of Cta Funds, Hooi Hooi Lean, Kok Fai Phoon, Wing Keung Wong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper, we employ the stochastic dominance (SD) approach to rank the performance of commodity trading advisors (CTA) funds. An advantage of this approach is that it alleviates the problems that can arise if CTA returns are not normally distributed by utilizing the entire returns distribution. We find both first-order and higher-order SD relationships amongst the CTA funds and conclude that investors are better off investing in the first-order dominant funds to maximize their expected utilities and expected wealth. However, for higher-order dominant CTAs, risk-averse investors can maximize their expected utilities but not their expected wealth. In addition to …
The Effect Of Information Disclosure On Information Asymmetry, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Neeranuch Nuengwang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Pakpoom Thanarung
The Effect Of Information Disclosure On Information Asymmetry, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Neeranuch Nuengwang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Pakpoom Thanarung
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the relation among information disclosure, firm characteristics and information asymmetry. The authors find evidence consistent with the notion that increasing corporate disclosure and transparency reduces the asymmetric information between informed and uninformed investors. The findings indicate a strong relation between firm characteristics and level of information disclosure. Larger firms, firms with high growth opportunity and superior performance are associated with higher level of information disclosure. With respect to type of information, large firms, firms with superior operating performance, high growth opportunity are likely to disclose the investment and structural change as well as legal and miscellaneous information. …
Intraday Price Discovery In Emerging Equity Market: Analysis Of Set50 Index, Set 50 Index Futures And Thaidex Set50 (Tdex), Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Julaluck Choochuay, Tanakorn Likitapiwat
Intraday Price Discovery In Emerging Equity Market: Analysis Of Set50 Index, Set 50 Index Futures And Thaidex Set50 (Tdex), Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Julaluck Choochuay, Tanakorn Likitapiwat
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study employs Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), information share and conditional information share methods to investigate price discovery in SET50 Index (cash index), SET50 Index Futures (futures index) and ThaiDex SET50 (exchange traded fund). Our findings indicate that there exists a long run relationship among three markets and a multi-market trading of derivatives markets and its underlying asset helps improve price efficiency. With respect to the degree of price formation process, SET50 Index Futures contributes most in price discovery process, followed by SET50 Index and ThaiDex SET50.
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Can Us Economic Variables Predict Chinese Stock Market?, Jeremy Goh, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, Yuchen Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that …
How Do Institutional Investors Trade When Firms Are Buying Back Shares?, Sheng Huang, Zhe (Joe) Zhang
How Do Institutional Investors Trade When Firms Are Buying Back Shares?, Sheng Huang, Zhe (Joe) Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study how institutional investors trade when firms buy back shares. We find that aggregate institutional ownership decline following share repurchase announcements. While some institutions sell shares passively to meet the firm demand for the market to clear, the overall institutional sell-off only accounts for 27% of shares bought back contemporaneously by firms. Many firms experience a net inflow of institutional investment. The decrease in institutional shareholding is greater in firms that experience weaker recent stock performance, display more information uncertainty, have higher institutional ownership, and conduct ill-timed/motivated repurchases that are not endorsed by institutions. And most of the sell-off …
Analysts' Industry Expertise, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach
Analysts' Industry Expertise, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Industry expertise is an important aspect of sell-side research. We explore this aspect using a novel dataset of industry recommendations, which are often issued by strategy analysts. We study sell-side analysts' ability to rank industries relative to each other (across-industry expertise), and how it relates to analysts' ability to rank firms in a particular industry (within-industry expertise). We find that analysts express more optimism towards industries with higher levels of investment, past profitability, and past returns. Analysts exhibit across-industry expertise, as portfolios based on industry recommendations generate abnormal returns over both short and long horizons, beyond what would be explained …
Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger Loh, Mitch Warachka
Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger Loh, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The gambler's fallacy (Rabin, 2002) predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the same sign. When the most recent earnings surprise extends a streak, post-earnings announcement drift is strong and significant. In contrast, the drift is negligible following thetermination of a streak. Indeed, streaks explain about half of the post-earnings announcement drift in our sample. Our results are robust to more general definitions of trends than streaks and a battery of control variables including the magnitude ofearnings surprises and their autocorrelation. Overall, post-earnings announcement drift …