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Articles 331 - 360 of 393

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu Jan 2007

Interest Rate Uncertainty And Stock Market Volatility, Jincai Xu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The reason for volatility changing over time is still open. As stated in the extant papers uncertainty of Macroeconomic variable plays more important role in explaining the time varying of volatility than the volatility of Macroeconomic variable itself. In this paper we illustrate this with exploring the relationship between stock market volatility and the Interest Uncertainty. In the paper, we take the uncertainty of the decision of FOMC meeting as the uncertainty of interest rate. As we know, asset price is a tool for people to express their belief about the state of the economy, when uncertainty is high, a …

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On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda Jan 2007

On The Calibration Of The Libor Market Model, U Lagunzad Demelinda

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This thesis presents a study of LIBOR market model calibration. In particular, the study builds on the prevailing calibration methodologies in an attempt to find a method that simultaneously recovers implied volatility and forward rate correlations structures from market prices of plain vanilla options. In order to ensure that complex derivative pricing and hedging requirements are jointly addressed, the study extends the performance analysis of calibration methods from a static level of goodness-of-fit with market prices test, to a dynamic level of approximation to next period's LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) dynamics when tested on a series of market prices. …

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What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen Jan 2007

What Explains Credit Default Swaps Bid-Ask Spread?, Yaru Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The pace at which the Credit default swaps (CDS) has been growing since its inception topped all projections. Despite the rapid growth, there is still room for enhancement of liquidity in the CDS market. Asymmetric information is another concern of investors in CDS market, however, some literature addressed that it may not be as serious as regarded. Bid-ask spreads is commonly used as a proxy of both liquidity and asymmetric information. Our empirical study confirms that CDS bid-ask spread has explanatory power to CDS premium. We then investigate the liquidity component in CDS bid-ask spreads. We use the bond age, …

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Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu Jan 2007

Risky Debt-Maturity Choice Under Information Asymmetry, Chunchi Wu, Sheen Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The traditional equilibrium models of signaling with debt-maturity require transaction costs by firms when raising new capital. In this paper, we propose a new model that has no such requirement. We demonstrate that a separating equilibrium of debt-maturity choice exists under a much more general condition, once accounting for the interactions between borrowers and lenders. The model is able to explain the observed complex financial structure. It is found that callable debt functions much like short-term debt, and serial debt similar to long-term debt. In equilibrium, high-quality firms issue short-term debt, and low-quality firms issue long-term debt.

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Implication Of Comprehensive Income Disclosure For Future Earnings And Analysts' Forecasts, Jong-Hag Choi, Yoonseok Zang Dec 2006

Implication Of Comprehensive Income Disclosure For Future Earnings And Analysts' Forecasts, Jong-Hag Choi, Yoonseok Zang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper examines the association of comprehensive income with subsequent period net income as well as analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results support the notion that comprehensive income is incrementally useful in predicting subsequent period changes in net income. We also document that comprehensive income is associated with analysts’ earnings forecast revisions and forecast errors. The evidence is consistent with analysts’ failure to fully utilize the information disclosed in comprehensive income. The result suggests that analysts revise their year t+1’s forecast downward when comprehensive income is smaller than net income but they do not revise the forecast upward when comprehensive income …

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Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting Sep 2006

Which Daily Price Is Less Noisy?, Christopher Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The daily efficient price is the price that would prevail if the market were frictionless. I show that volume-weighted average price (VWAP) provides a less noisy estimate for the unobservable efficient price as compared to the closing price. The variance of daily returns computed with VWAPs is smaller than that computed with closing prices. The difference between these two realized variances is economically significant. The volatility of log closing price change tends to understate the beta risk and Sharpe ratio. A higher noise level in the closing price leads to derivative prices that favor option and volatility-related swap writers.

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Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu Sep 2006

Is Stock Price Rounded For Economic Reasons In The Chinese Market, Yan He, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates whether trading and quoting prices are rounded for both economic and cultural reasons on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China. We find that the close, bid, and ask prices of domestic shares are rounded to the nearest 10s and 5s for economic reasons, and the last decimal point of prices clusters on 8 for cultural reasons. The cross-sectional variation in 10-cent and 5-cent rounding can be well explained by price and inverse of square root of trading volume, whereas the clustering on 8 can hardly be ascribed to economic variables. The cross-sectional variation in execution …

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Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu Jun 2006

Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, And Corporate Bond Yield Spreads, Sheen X. Liu, Howard Qi, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Term structure models have often been criticized for failing to explain satisfactorily the yield spread between corporate and Treasury bonds. A potential problem is that the personal tax effect is ignored in these models. In this paper, we employ a structural model to investigate the role of personal taxes on both debt and equity returns in capital structure decisions and assess their impact on corporate bond yield spreads. It is shown that personal taxes affect the firm's optimal capital structure, and the tax premium explains a substantial portion of yield spreads, especially for high-grade bonds. The predictive ability of the …

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Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian May 2006

Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.

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Under-Pricing And Long-Run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings In Developing Markets, Sze Wei Daniel Ong Jan 2006

Under-Pricing And Long-Run Performance Of Initial Public Offerings In Developing Markets, Sze Wei Daniel Ong

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The transition from being a private company to a public one is one of the most important events in the life of a firm. It is also one of particular interest to institutional investors, and the transition is facilitated through the initial public offering (IPO) process. The IPO provides a fresh source of capital that is critical to the growth of the firm and provides the founder and other shareholders such as venture capitalists a liquid market for their shares. From an institutional investor's perspective, the IPO provides an opportunity to share in the rewards of the growth of the …

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Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou Jan 2006

Information Value Of Credit Ratings In Asia Ex-Japan Markets, Chen Zhou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This study investigates the information value of credit ratings by exploring the relationship between ratings and security price. Unlike previous studies, we concentrate on the major markets ex-Japan in Asia. We begin with an investigation of rating reclassification as well as credit watch placement events by three leading international rating agencies. We show that markets with differing level of sophistication behave differently. Specifically, South Korea and Hong Kong are found to respond in a similar manner. Indonesia shows possible ign of information leakage. In the cases of Malaysia and Thailand, significant and positive equity price responses exist for upgrades, suggesting …

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The Information Efficiency Of The Corporate Bond Market, Cheng Ying Jan 2006

The Information Efficiency Of The Corporate Bond Market, Cheng Ying

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The link between asset prices and information fundamentals as embodied in news announcement effects is an extremely, if not the most, important area amongst current research in market microstructure. The lack of adequate transaction data posts an obstacle in this research. In this thesis, based on a valuable intraday transaction-by-transaction dataset for U.S. corporate bonds, we first examine the impact of public information contained in the macro-economic news and firm-specific information contained in corporate earnings annoucements on the prices of both corporate bonds and stocks. We find that both bonds and stocks react significantly to public news and firm-specific information, …

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Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang Jan 2006

Capital Structure Dynamics And Stock Returns, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Many finance theories predict that the capital structure affects firm value, which implies that the changes in leverage have an impact on stock returns. Most of the existing literature however has been focusing on the determinants of the capital structure. Using a sample of U.S. public firms during 1975-2002, we document a significantly negative effect of leverage changes on next-quarter stock returns. This effect remains significant after controlling for other firm characteristics such as ROE, book-to-market, firm size, and past returns. We propose and test several hypotheses to explain the observed effect. We find that the negative effect is stronger …

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Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting Dec 2005

Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents a synthesized model of asymmetric information. An empirical analysis of more than 1,400 NYSE common stocks shows that trade direction is more important than volume in revealing the asymmetry. There is also evidence to suggest that signed duration reflects informed trading activity. We use the proposed measure of information asymmetry to study daily changes in the level of informed trading and find that earnings announcements narrow the information gap between the informed and the uninformed. On average, information asymmetry is largest at the beginning of the trading day and it decreases monotonically toward the closing bell. More …

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Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu Oct 2005

Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka Oct 2005

The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

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The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana Oct 2005

The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy Aug 2005

Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

A large class of fixed income trading strategies focuses on opportunities offered by the interest rate term structure. This paper studies a set of yield curve trading strategies that are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts to an unconditional curve. These mean-reverting trading strategies exploit deviations in the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve from historical norms. We consider cash-neutral trades with one-month holding periods. Some mean-reverting strategies were found to be highly profitable, and outperform, on a risk-adjusted basis before transaction costs, alternative strategies of an investment in the Lehman Brothers Bond index (by …

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A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine Aug 2005

A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model,the Expectation Hypothesis and affine yield curve models. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the purpose of pricing interest rate derivatives. We select a model from alternative affine examples that are fitted to …

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Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka Aug 2005

Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets and geographical regions is critically important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities …

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On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang Jul 2005

On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing empirical studies indicate that inferences on the intertemporal relation between expected return and volatility are highly sensitive to empirical specifications of return dynamics. Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1993) attempt to resolve this confusing situation by examining several generalizations of the standard GARCH-M model. They conclude a negative risk-return relation solely based on the models that are identified in the first step through a variety of diagnostic tests as relatively “better” models. However, it has not been shown in their study whether the evidence supporting their first-step model selection decision is significant or not. To the extent the strength …

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Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee Mar 2005

Price Limit Performance: Evidence From Transactions Data And The Limit Order Book, Soon Huat Chan, Kenneth A. Kim, S. Ghon Rhee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, organized stock exchanges with daily price limits adopted wider limits as narrower limits were criticized for jeopardizing market efficiency. This study examines the impact of a wide price limit on price discovery processes, using data from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Specifically, examined is the impact of daily price limits on (i) information asymmetry; (ii) arrival rates of informed traders; and (iii) order imbalance. Using both trade-to-trade transaction data and the limit order book, we compile evidence that price limits do not improve information asymmetry, delays the arrival of informed traders, and exacerbates order imbalance. These results …

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Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh Mar 2005

Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper discusses the different forms of corporate divestitures, the motives for this corporate activity, and the empirical findings about their economic outcomes. A sample of corporate divestitures is also used to identify the main motivations in the Singapore context. We conclude that divestitures are carried out to achieve operational efficiency and gain incremental profitability and liquidity. Using share price data around the event-dates, we show that announcements of divestitures generally lead to significant increases in the returns of the parent company. The positive abnormal returns are related to the relative size of the divestitures and the computed accounting gains. …

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Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka Feb 2005

Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …

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Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo Feb 2005

Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …

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Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang Dec 2004

Investing When Volatility Fluctuates, Leping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong Dec 2004

Penny Pricing And The Components Of Spread And Depth Changes, David K. Ding, K.H. Chuang, C. Chearoenwong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent studies show that decimal pricing led to significant reductions in the spread and depth on the NYSE. In this paper, we examine how the observed changes in the spread and depth can be attributed to different factors. We show that stocks with higher proportions of one-tick spreads and odd-sixteenth quotes, and more frequent trading before decimalization experienced larger declines in the spread and depth afterwards. We interpret this result as evidence of reduced binding constraints and increased price competition under decimal pricing. We also find that decimal pricing led to nontrivial changes in select stock attributes, and that these …

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International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S. Nov 2004

International Joint Ventures And Political Risk, Sundaram Janakiramanan, Lamba Asjeet S.

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, a number of researchers have examined the existence and source of shareholder wealth effects around announcements of international joint ventures. The results of these studies are mixed with no clear answers as to when and why investors attach value to firms using joint ventures to enter overseas markets. In this context, we examine the shareholder wealth effects for 92 international joint venture announcements made by Australian firms during June 1988 - December 1997. We find that, on average, shareholders of firms announcing joint ventures realize an abnormal return of +1.65% over the two-day announcement period of days …

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Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo Nov 2004

Style Effects In The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Melvyn Teo, Sung-Jun Woo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using CRSP stock and mutual fund data, we find strong evidence for reversals at the style level (e.g., large value, small growth, etc.). There are significant excess and risk-adjusted returns for stocks in styles characterized by the worst past returns and net inflows. We also find evidence for momentum and positive feedback trading at the style level. These value and momentum effects are driven neither by fundamental risk nor by stock-level reversals and momentum. Taken together, the results are consistent with the style-level positive feedback trading model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003).

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The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood Nov 2004

The Impact Of Regulation Fair Disclosure On Information Asymmetry And Trading: An Intraday Analysis, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, Christine X. Jiang, Nareerat Taechapiroontong, Robert A. Wood

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on liquidity, information asymmetry, and institutional and retail investors trading behavior. Our main findings suggest three conclusions. First, Regulation FD has been effective in improving liquidity and in decreasing the level of information asymmetry. Second, retail trading activity increases dramatically after earnings announcements but there is a significant decline in institutional trading surrounding earnings announcements, particularly in the pre‐announcement period. Last, the decline in information asymmetry around earnings announcements is closely associated with a lower participation rate in the pre‐announcement period and more active trading of retail investors after earnings …

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