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Articles 241 - 270 of 393

Full-Text Articles in Portfolio and Security Analysis

Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong May 2010

Selective Intervention And Economic Re-Engineering: Lessons Form Singapore's Parks In Indonesia And India, Caroline Yeoh, Siang Yeung Wong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

No abstract provided.

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Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Portfolio Decisions?, Jun Tu May 2010

Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Portfolio Decisions?, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, …

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An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh Feb 2010

An Analysis Of Extreme Price Shocks And Illiquidity Among Systematic Trend Followers, Wing Bernard Lee, Shih-Fen Cheng, Annie Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct an agent-based model to study the interplay between extreme price shocks and illiquidity in the presence of systematic traders known as trend followers. The agent-based approach is particularly attractive in modeling commodity markets because the approach allows for the explicit modeling of production, capacities, and storage constraints. Our study begins by using the price stream from a market simulation involving human participants and studies the behavior of various trend-following strategies, assuming initially that their participation will not impact the market. We notice an incremental deterioration in strategy performance as and when strategies deviate further and further from the …

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Investing Into The Abyss: The Continued Misclassification Of Multi-Sector Managed Funds, N. Allen, Kok Fai Phoon, J. Watson, J. Wickramanayake Feb 2010

Investing Into The Abyss: The Continued Misclassification Of Multi-Sector Managed Funds, N. Allen, Kok Fai Phoon, J. Watson, J. Wickramanayake

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The rapid expansion in assets managed by the Australian managed fund industry has resulted in it becoming a major sector of the financial system, second only to that of the banking industry. With more than A$550 billion invested in the industry investors should be concerned about the lack of reliable information available in regard to equity style management. In particular investors should be concerned about the probable mis-match between stated objectives and the actual objectives pursued by fund managers. In this study, we apply return-based style analysis (Sharpe 1988, 1992) to investigate the style and asset allocation strategies of 50 …

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How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang Jan 2010

How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …

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Tunneling As An Incentive For Earnings Management During The Ipo Process In China, Jiwei Wang, Joseph Aharony, Hongqi Yuan Jan 2010

Tunneling As An Incentive For Earnings Management During The Ipo Process In China, Jiwei Wang, Joseph Aharony, Hongqi Yuan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using a sample of 185 Chinese IPO firms listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during the period 1999-2001, we show that related-party (RP) sales of goods and services could be used opportunistically to manage earnings upwards in the pre-IPO period. We also provide evidence that such behavior may be motivated by the prospect of tunneling opportunities in the post-IPO period, i.e., exploiting economic resources from minority shareholders for the benefit of the parent company. We provide evidence of one such opportunistic tunneling tool: non-repayment by Chinese parent companies of net outstanding corporate loans made to them by their newly listed …

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News Which Moves The Market: Assessing The Impact Of Published Financial News On The Stock Market, Yu Chiang Soon Jan 2010

News Which Moves The Market: Assessing The Impact Of Published Financial News On The Stock Market, Yu Chiang Soon

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Recent years have seen a large increase in the volume of financial news available to investors daily. What has traditionally been restricted to print media has now evolved to include the internet and satellite television as important media sources for financial news. With this overwhelming flow of information available to investors, the impact of financial news on market prices is at best uncertain. In this paper, a computational text-scoring methodology will be employed to uncover behavioral responses by investors to negative news. The empirical methodology employed in this paper will consist of three parts. Firstly, through the General Inquirer (GI) …

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Idiosyncratic Risk And Risk Taking Behavior Of Mutual Fund Managers, Gao Wang Jan 2010

Idiosyncratic Risk And Risk Taking Behavior Of Mutual Fund Managers, Gao Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

I propose that various measures of mutual funds’ performance are more consistent with their investment capability when mutual funds present low idiosyncratic risks. This paper finds conditional predictor for funds’ returns: alpha predicts returns positively for low idiosyncratic risk funds. It suggests that mutual funds which showed high alpha and low idiosyncratic risk in the past may be capable in investment. Their performance is consistently higher than funds with low idiosyncratic risk and low alpha. On the other hand, the performance of high idiosyncratic risk funds is more likely to reverse in the future: expected returns are low for high …

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Do Analyst Earnings Beta Explain Growth Anomaly?, Sophie Phuong Thanh Doan Jan 2010

Do Analyst Earnings Beta Explain Growth Anomaly?, Sophie Phuong Thanh Doan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Using a measure of cashflow risk derived from analyst forecasts, I find that cashflow risk offers a partial explanation for the value – growth anomaly. In particular, the lowest asset growth portfolio has a higher earnings beta than the highest asset growth portfolio. Approximately cashflow risk measured by earnings beta carries a significant positive risk premium of 1.24% with a t-value of 3.51.

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Long-Term Earnings Growth Forecasts, Limited Attention, And Return Predictability, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka Jan 2010

Long-Term Earnings Growth Forecasts, Limited Attention, And Return Predictability, Zhi Da, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Long-term earnings expectations are critically important to stock price valuations. We identify relative optimism and relative pessimism in long-term analyst forecasts by comparing these forecasts with implied short-term earnings growth forecasts across rms within the same industry. Stocks with relatively optimistic and relatively pessimistic long-term analyst forecasts have negative and positive risk-adjusted returns, respectively. This return predictability depends critically on short-term forecasts since relative optimism and relative pessimism originate from the slow diffusion of information from short-term to long-term analyst forecasts. Our results indicate that market participants have limited attention regarding the long-term earnings implications of information.

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Strategic Financial Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Michael Barclay, Fangjian Fu, Clifford Smith Jan 2010

Strategic Financial Management: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offerings, Michael Barclay, Fangjian Fu, Clifford Smith

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Extant theories of capital structure assume myopic financial managers. So they have hard time to explain the financing behavior of seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms. In contrast with the pecking order theory, SEO firms typically are financially healthy companies with significant cash balances, low leverage, and unused debt capacity. At odds with the tradeoff theory, SEOs often move firms away from, rather than closer to, their target leverage ratios. SEOs appear to be driven by capital needs associated with large investment projects rather than by market timing considerations. Firms issue debt following the SEO to finance investment further and to …

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Understanding Analysts Forecasts, R. J. Louth, P. Joos, S. E. Satchell, Guy Weyns Jan 2010

Understanding Analysts Forecasts, R. J. Louth, P. Joos, S. E. Satchell, Guy Weyns

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

The purpose of this paper is to model analysts’ forecasts. The paper differs from the previous research in that we do not focus on how accurate these predictions may be. Accuracy may indeed be an important quality but we argue instead that another equally important aspect of the analysts’ job is to predict and describe the impact of jump events. In effect, the analysts’ role is one of scenario prediction. Using a Bayesian-inspired generalised method of moments estimation procedure, we use this notion of scenario prediction combined with the structure of the Morgan Stanley analysts’ forecasting database to model …

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Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Asset Allocations?, Jun Tu Jan 2010

Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Asset Allocations?, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year, and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, …

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Leverage Change, Debt Overhang, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang Oct 2009

Leverage Change, Debt Overhang, And Stock Prices, Jie Cai, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We document a significant and negative effect of the change in a firm’s leverage ratio on its stock prices. We find that the negative effect is stronger for firms with a greater likelihood of debt overhang. Moreover, firms with an increase in leverage ratio tend to have less future investment. These findings are consistent with Myers' (1977) debt overhang theory that an increase in leverage may lead to future underinvestment, thus reducing a firm's value.

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Conflicts Of Interest And Stock Recommendations: The Effects Of The Global Settlement And Related Regulations, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureria, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach Oct 2009

Conflicts Of Interest And Stock Recommendations: The Effects Of The Global Settlement And Related Regulations, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureria, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the effect of the Global Analyst Research Settlement and related regulations on sell-side research. These regulations attempted to mitigate the interdependence between research and investment banking. We document that following the regulations many brokerage houses have migrated from the traditional five-tier rating system to a three-tier system. Optimistic recommendations have become less frequent and more informative, whereas neutral and pessimistic recommendations have become more frequent and less informative. Importantly, the overall informativeness of recommendations has declined. The likelihood of issuing optimistic recommendations no longer depends on affiliation with the covered firm, although affiliated analysts are still reluctant to …

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The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo Sep 2009

The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection BNP Paribas Hedge Fund Centre

This article analyzes the relationship between the risk-adjusted performance of hedge funds and their proximity to investments using data on Asian-focused hedge funds. We find, relative to an augmented Fung and Hsieh (2004) factor model, that hedge funds with a physical presence (head or research office) in their investment region outperform other hedge funds by 3.72 percent per year. The local information advantage is pervasive across all major geographical regions, but is strongest for Emerging Market funds and funds holding illiquid securities. These results are robust to adjustments for fund fees, serial correlation, backfill bias, and incubation bias. We show …

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Effects Of International Institutional Factors On Earnings Quality Of Banks, Chee Yeow Lim, Gerald Lobo, Kanagaretnam Kiridaran Sep 2009

Effects Of International Institutional Factors On Earnings Quality Of Banks, Chee Yeow Lim, Gerald Lobo, Kanagaretnam Kiridaran

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

No abstract provided.

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The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo Sep 2009

The Geography Of Hedge Funds, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article analyzes the relationship between the risk-adjusted performance of hedge funds and their proximity to investments using data on Asia-focused hedge funds. I find, relative to an augmented Fung and Hsieh (2004) factor model, that hedge funds with a physical presence (head or research office) in their investment region outperform other hedge funds by 3.72% per year. The local information advantage is pervasive across all major geographical regions, but is strongest for emerging market funds and funds holding illiquid securities. These results are robust to adjustments for fund fees, serial correlation, backfill bias, and incubation bias. I show also …

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Institutional Investors And The Informational Efficiency Of Prices, Ekkehart Boehmer, Eric K. Kelley Sep 2009

Institutional Investors And The Informational Efficiency Of Prices, Ekkehart Boehmer, Eric K. Kelley

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a broad panel of NYSE-listed stocks between 1983 and 2004, we study the relation between institutional shareholdings and the relative informational efficiency of prices, measured as deviations from a random walk. Stocks with greater institutional ownership are priced more efficiently, and we show that variation in liquidity does not drive this result. One mechanism through which prices become more efficient is institutional trading activity, even when institutions trade passively. But efficiency is also directly related to institutional holdings, even after controlling for institutional trading, analyst coverage, short selling, variation in liquidity, and firm characteristics.

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Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka Jun 2009

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Momentum arises from the investor gradually learning about the relative accuracy of the information sources and updating their weights. Empirical tests validate the model's prediction of stronger …

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Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain May 2009

Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose and empirically examine a comprehensive measure of institutional trading frictions to include the dimensions of price impact, quantity of execution, return dynamics, speed of execution or order splitting, and trading commissions. Our empirical analysis reveals that various hidden components of institutional trading frictions such as adverse selection and clean-up costs are persistent and could add significantly to previously measured directly observable components of transaction costs. Our simultaneous system of equations accounts for the endogeniety in institutional order aggressiveness based on potentially superior information as well as order splitting strategies in the implementation stage to reduce transaction costs. Order …

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Extreme Events And The Copula Pricing Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, Zhanyong Liu, Gang-Zhi Fan, Kian Guan Lim Apr 2009

Extreme Events And The Copula Pricing Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, Zhanyong Liu, Gang-Zhi Fan, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our …

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Institutional Investors And Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, Zhe Zhang Feb 2009

Institutional Investors And Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by short-term institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.

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Institutional Investors, Past Performance, And Dynamic Loss Aversion, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo Feb 2009

Institutional Investors, Past Performance, And Dynamic Loss Aversion, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a proprietary database of currency trades, this paper explores the effects of trading gains and losses on risk-taking among large institutional investors. We find that institutional investors, unlike individuals, are not prone to the disposition effect. Instead, institutions aggressively reduce risk following losses and mildly increase risk following gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced later in the calendar year and among older and more experienced funds. We show that such performance dependence is consistent with dynamic loss aversion (Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2001)) and overconfidence. In addition, prior institutional gains and losses have palpable implications for future prices.

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Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Craig Warachka Feb 2009

Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara(2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news to …

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The Performance Of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts, Jerry Cao, Josh Lerner Feb 2009

The Performance Of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts, Jerry Cao, Josh Lerner

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Reverse leveraged buyouts (RLBOs) have received increased public scrutiny but attracted little systematic study. We collect a comprehensive sample of 526 RLBOs between 1981 and 2003 and examine the three-year and five-year stock performance of these offerings. RLBOs appear to perform as well as or better than other initial public offerings and the stock market as a whole, depending on the specification. Evidence exists of a deterioration of returns over time.

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Empirical Evidences On Risk-Taking And Performance Of Mutual Fund, Jingchang Lu Jan 2009

Empirical Evidences On Risk-Taking And Performance Of Mutual Fund, Jingchang Lu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper examines the relationship between performance and risk exposure for mutual funds. The preliminary analysis fails to support the tournament hypothesis, which predicts that poorly performing managers will increase risk exposure while outperforming managers will decrease risk exposure. Instead, we find evidence of risk reduction for extreme losers and risk increase for winning managers. Besides, the risk-taking fails to align manager interest with shareholder interest since the returns from the risk enhancement by winners and the risk reduction by losers is relatively worse than those with contradictory strategies. Overall, the competition among fund managers appears to affect management risk …

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International Evidence On Analyst Monitoring And Earnings Management: The Roles Of Corporate Disclosure And National Culture, Soongsoo Han, Tony Kang, Gerald Lobo, Yong Keun Yoo Jan 2009

International Evidence On Analyst Monitoring And Earnings Management: The Roles Of Corporate Disclosure And National Culture, Soongsoo Han, Tony Kang, Gerald Lobo, Yong Keun Yoo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine country-level determinants of private information search incentives, and whether analysts’ role in constraining managers’ opportunistic earnings management varies across countries. In a sample of 31,312 firm-year observations originating from 30 countries, we document that: (1) analyst coverage is negatively (positively) related to the level of corporate disclosure (how secretive the national culture is); (2) the negative association between analyst coverage and earnings management is observed in stronger investor protection countries but not in weaker investor protection countries; and (3) analyst monitoring fails to mitigate culturedriven earnings manipulations in countries with more individualistic and uncertainty-tolerant cultures. Taken together, financial …

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Acquisitions Driven By Stock Overvaluation, Leming Lin Jan 2009

Acquisitions Driven By Stock Overvaluation, Leming Lin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Overvaluation might drive a firm to use its stock to acquire another firm whose stock is not as overpriced. Though hypothetically desirable, these acquisitions create little, if any, value for acquirer shareholders. Two factors impede value creation for acquirer stockholders from these transactions (despite large differences in relative overvaluation at announcement): acquirers paying large premiums to targets, and investors' correction of acquirer overvaluation during the bid period. Furthermore, acquirer CEOs obtain a large amount of new stock and option grants after acquisitions and realize a net gain in wealth, further suggesting that equity overvaluation increases agency costs and the resulting …

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Does Morningstar Shine In The Universe Of Mutual Funds? A Study On Morningstar Mutual Fund Ratings, Wee Seng Ng Jan 2009

Does Morningstar Shine In The Universe Of Mutual Funds? A Study On Morningstar Mutual Fund Ratings, Wee Seng Ng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Using data from Morningstar Principia CDs and employing standard methodologies, we examine the extent to which two mutual fund ratings: Morningstar star ratings and Morningstar stewardship grades can predict future fund performance. In particular, we investigate whether the combined predictive power of the two ratings exceeds that of a single rating. We decompose funds into various groups characterized by fund age and fund categories in order to address such issues as whether predictive performance is uniform across characteristic-based groups. Although our analysis shows that none of the ratings alone possesses strong predictive power, there is statistical evidence to support the …

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