Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons^™

Global Risk Of Nuclear Terrorism, Emily Diez, Terrance Clark, Caroline Zaw-Mon

Journal of Strategic Security

The emergence of nuclear terrorism, a threat that President Obama called "the gravest danger we face," has signaled a paradigm shift in international security. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, sensitive nuclear technologies and materials have become increasingly available. Globalization and the inadequate enforcement of treaties and export controls have allowed the proliferation of nuclear weapons materials. Today, international terrorist organizations seek to employ weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as a means to influence national policies around the world. AlQaida spokesman Suleiman Abu Gheith declared that in order to balance the injustices that have been inflicted on the Muslim …

Intelligence And Its Role In Protecting Against Terrorism, Richard J. Hughbank, Don Githens

Journal of Strategic Security

The art and science of gathering critical operational intelligence has been defined in many ways and is beyond our needs for this writing. Throughout the course of history, many wars have been fought depending heavily on various forms of intelligence. During our most recent actions in the War on Terror, intelligence analysis has played a critical role in both offensive and defensive operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. With such varying fact-finding techniques available and utilized in the defense of our country, it has become an arduous task to collect, decipher, package, prioritize, disseminate, and act upon everything that comes down …

Toward A New Trilateral Strategic Security Relationship: United States, Canada, And Mexico, Richard J. Kilroy, Jr., Abelardo Rodríguez Sumano, Todd S. Hataley

Journal of Strategic Security

The term "perimeter defense" has come back into vogue recently, with regard to security strategies for North America. The United States' concern primarily with the terrorist threat to its homeland subsequent to September 11, 2001 (9/11) is generating this discussion with its immediate neighbors of Mexico and Canada (and to some extent some Caribbean nations—the "third border"). The concept is simply that by pushing defenses out to the "perimeter" nations, then security will be enhanced, since the United States visions itself as more vulnerable to international terrorism than its neighbors. However, Canada and Mexico have not been very happy about …

Variance, Violence, And Democracy: A Basic Microeconomic Model Of Terrorism, John A. Sautter

Journal of Strategic Security

Much of the debate surrounding contemporary studies of terrorism focuses upon transnational terrorism. However, historical and contemporary evidence suggests that domestic terrorism is a more prevalent and pressing concern. A formal microeconomic model of terrorism is utilized here to understand acts of political violence in a domestic context within the domain of democratic governance.This article builds a very basic microeconomic model of terrorist decision making to hypothesize how a democratic government might influence the sorts of strategies that terrorists use. Mathematical models have been used to explain terrorist behavior in the past. However, the bulk of inquires in this area …

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Strategic Asymmetric Deception And Its Role In The Current Threat Environment, Seth A. Gulsby

Journal of Strategic Security

President Bill Clinton's Secretary of Defense, William Cohen, once stated that the post-Cold War world of the 1990s was a "paradox [where] American military superiority actually increase[d] the threat of... attack against [the U.S.] by creating incentives for adversaries to challenge us asymmetrically." He was alluding to the fact that the Cold War's closure was supposed to bring about a situation that encouraged peace, nation-building, and unilateral comfort for the United States. The reality that America has come to know is quite different, and some might even argue that, given the option, many people would return to a security situation …

Book Reviews, Timothy Hsia, Sheldon Greaves, Donald J. Goldstein

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Trusts Versus Corporations: An Empirical Analysis Of Competing Organizational Forms, A. Joseph Warburton

College of Law - Faculty Scholarship

This paper studies the effects of organizational form on managerial behavior and firm performance, from an empirical perspective. Managers of trusts are subject to stricter fiduciary responsibilities than managers of corporations. This paper examines the ramifications empirically, by exploiting data generated by a change in British regulations in the 1990s that allowed mutual funds to organize as either a trust or a corporation. I find evidence that trust law is effective in curtailing opportunistic behavior, as trust managers charge significantly lower fees than their observationally equivalent corporate counterparts. Trust managers also incur lower risk. However, evidence suggests that trust managers …

How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market, including the aggregate market portfolio and the components of the aggregate market, such as portfolios sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration. Considering a variety of economic variables as predictors, both in-sample and out-of-sample tests highlight significant predictability in the aggregate market portfolio of the Chinese stock market and substantial differences in return predictability across components. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Service exhibit the most predictability, while portfolios of small-cap and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. Two key findings provide economic explanations for …

Evaluating The Target Pipeline In A Pharmaceutical Acquisition, Daniel Vass

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Many firms in the pharmaceutical industry turn to acquisitions when faced with gaps in their drug development pipelines and patent expirations as an alternative to making long-term investments in internal research and development. Investors are generally negative on this strategy, and upon the announcement of a pharmaceutical acquisition the stock of the acquiring firm often drops. This decline in share price creates an opportunity for the investor who can identify the characteristics of a target firm that increase the probability that the transaction will ultimately be a success, as measured by the subsequent appreciation in the acquirer's stock. It is …

A Comparative Study Of The Performance, Macroeconomic Variables, And Firm's Specific Determinants Of Islamic And Non-Islamic Indices : The Malaysian Evidence., Mohamed Shikh Abu Baker Albaity

Student Works (2010-2019)

This thesis presents three related empirical studies on the performance and the long and short run dynamics between screened investment portfolio represented by Kuala Lumpur Syariah index (KLSI) and non-screened investment portfolio represented by Kuala Lumpur Composite index (KLCI) in Bursa Malaysia. The KLCI contains the largest 100 companies in Malaysia. This index facilitates as a barometer of the Malaysian economy while, the KLSI is the first Syariah compliant index in Bursa Malaysia. KLSI represents companies abiding to Islamic laws of transactions, which is determined by the scholars in the Shariah supervisory board employed by Bursa Malaysia. The KLCI represents …

Financial Management Practices: Associations With Financial Well-Being And Risky Investment Among Families In Malaysia., Husniyah Abd. Rahim

Student Works (2010-2019)

Financial management practices predicting good financial well-being and participation in risky assets among families were identified in this study. It also seeks to find out other factors predicting financial well-being and participation in risky assets. Associations of time horizon with risk preference, and risk preference with financial management practices, differences in financial management practices among the main ethnicities in Malaysia and among families residing in urban and rural areas were also determined. The moderating roles of self-worth between financial management practices and financial well-being of families, and between financial management practices and risky investment by families were explored. Quota sampling …

Extinguishing The Torch Of Terror: The Threat Of Terrorism And The 2010 Olympics, Serge E. Vidalis

Journal of Strategic Security

With the change in seasons comes the expected change of insurgency operations in Afghanistan as Taliban and al-Qaida fighters mount their spring and summer offensives against both NATO forces and Afghanis sympathetic to foreign troops. As insurgents curtail their seasonal operations with the arrival of fall and winter, is it likely that a threat may arise from Afghanistan to affect the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia? As will be illustrated herein, the threat to the games will not be borne directly from the insurgency in Afghanistan but rather by the universal jihadist ideology of al-Qaida rather than the nationalist …

Revisiting Downs' Issue-Attention Cycle: International Terrorism And U.S. Public Opinion, Karen K. Petersen

Journal of Strategic Security

Lamenting the lack of public awareness of international events and U.S. foreign policy is not a particularly novel exercise; yet, explaining the process by which issues enter and exit the public realm remains a challenging endeavor. Despite contributions from researchers working in international relations and mass communication, explaining public inattentiveness continues to vex scholars. However, in his article, "Up and Down with Ecology: The 'Issue-Attention Cycle,'" Anthony Downs provides a parsimonious and tractable model of public opinion that can be applied to foreign policy issues.1 While Downs concerns himself exclusively with domestic issues, particularly environmental issues, his model has thepotential …

Reviving The United States' Commitment To Pakistan And Afghanistan, Steve A. Young, Imdad Hussain Sahito

Journal of Strategic Security

As President Obama is in the midst of deciding whether additional U.S.combat forces are needed in Afghanistan in addition to the 21,000 troops recently committed, he must realize that additional armed forces are only a stopgap measure in Afghanistan's downward spiral into an 'undergoverned' failed state. Similarly, as Pakistan's fragile and fractured civilian government continues to appease the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of Pakistani Pashtun tribesmen with Taliban cultural values led by Baitullah Mehsud and others, it comes closer to the concept of a "misgoverned" failed state, possessing a small arsenal of nuclear arms. The problem for the …

The Tangled Web Of Taliban And Associated Movements, Greg Smith

Journal of Strategic Security

Following the devastating terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,worldwide attention became focused on the Taliban and al-Qaida forcesin Afghanistan. Prior to the attacks, many people had never heard of the Taliban or their shar'ia-law style of government. Since 2001, manysplinter groups have formed in response to the continual United Statespresence in the region. Today, the term Taliban has been used to envelop several groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Haqqani Network (HQN) and the Tehrik-eNifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi(TNSM). These groups make up the majority of fighters along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Many of these groups have been historicrivals for control of the …

Islamist Distortions: Hizb Ut- Tahrir A Breeding Ground For Al- Qaida Recruitment, Krishna Mungur

Journal of Strategic Security

In 1953, a radical splinter organization from the Muslim Brotherhood,Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT), was founded by the Al-Azhar University (Cairo,Egypt) educated jurist Sheikh Taqiuddin an-Nabhani who criticized theMuslim Brotherhood for collaborating with Egyptian secularists, such as Gamal Abdel Nasser. A sizable portion of the more radical members of the Muslim Brotherhood broke away, to join Nabhani's budding movement. Today, HuT is known to operate in more than forty countries, calling for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate, with a history of violence and links to violent terrorist organizations. Given increasing tensions in the region over the presence of coalition troops, Predator …

Book Reviews, Christine E. Williamson, Ed Urie, Michael Savasta, Robin L. Thompson, D.M., Edward M. Roche

Journal of Strategic Security

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis. By David T.Moore.

At The Center Of The Storm: The CIA During America's Time of Crisis. By George Tenet with Bill Harlow.

Female Suicide Bombers. By Rosemarie Skaine.

Information Operations: Doctrine and Practice. By Christopher Paul.

The Secret Sentry: The Untold History of the National Security Agency. By Matthew M. Aid.

The Blood of Lambs: A Former Terrorist's Memoir of Death and Redemption. By Kamal Saleem with Lynn Vincent.

Attaché Extraordinaire: Vernon A. Walters in Brazil. By Frank Márcio De Oliveira.

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Guerilla Warfare & Law Enforcement: Combating The 21st Century Terrorist Cell Within The U.S., Richard J. Hughbank

Journal of Strategic Security

Both domestic and international terrorist organizations employ guerrilla warfare tactics, techniques, and procedures. Thus, the ability to identify and defeat the members of these organizations, cripple their infrastructures, and disrupt their financial resources lies in the understanding of modern guerrilla warfare as it develops in the twenty-first century within the United States.3 The forms of asymmetric warfare4 adopted by domestic and international terrorist groups alike is no longer intended to gain simple media exposure or governmental manipulation; they want to make an overpowering impact by causing massive loss of life and severe damage to infrastructure and are often motivated by …

What Price Security?, Donald C. Masters

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a critique of the Copenhagen Consensus Center's(CCC) exhaustive study on transnational terrorism, published in 2008.The implications of this study are controversial, yet highly relevant in today's economic environment. The Obama administration must come toterms with fiscal realities that will challenge budget priorities and invigorate what will undoubtedly prove to be tough negotiations on Capitol Hill for homeland security dollars. It is proposed here that standard economic tools such as benefit cost analysis, cost effectiveness criteria, and simulation models can help identify areas where security can be either extended or improved using fewer resources. Greater movement towards competitive …

Countering The Somali Pirates: Harmonizing The International Response, Richard Weitz

Journal of Strategic Security

The growing threat to international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and neighboring regions from pirates operating off the shores of lawless Somalia has engendered an unparalleled global response. Over the past year, numerous international security organizations as well as national governments have organized many separate multilateral and single-country maritime security operations in the Horn of Africa region. Despite the unprecedented extent of this effort, this mishmash of ad hoc multinational and national initiatives has had only a limited effect. These various contingents typically have conflicting mandates and rules of engagement. They have also become fixated on responding to immediate …

The Tipping Point: Biological Terrorism, Scott Cary

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a strategic, operational, and tactical analysis of information currently available on the state of bio-weapons development by non-state actors, primarily Islamist jihadists. It discusses the evidence supporting a practical assessment that non-state actors have begun to acquire, and in the near-term intend to employ, bio-weapons. A pathogen and method of attack specifically designed to achieve the strategic goals of jihadists are presented as functional examples of the problem of the emerging global bio-weapons threat.Is a terrorist attack utilizing biological weapons a real threat? If so, is there a way to predict the circumstances under which it might …

Decision Support For Countering Terrorist Threats Against Transportation Networks, Richard Adler, Jeff Fuller

Journal of Strategic Security

This article presents a dynamic decision support methodology forcounter-terrorism decision support. The initial sections introduce basic objectives and challenges of terrorism risk analysis and risk management. The remainder of the paper describes TRANSEC, a decision support framework for defining, validating, and monitoring strategies focused on managing terrorism risks to international transportation networks. The methodology and software tools underlying TRANSEC are applicable to other homeland security problems, such as critical infrastructure and border protection.

Keeping Our Campuses And Communities Safe, Ronald Goodman

Journal of Strategic Security

Since the events of September 11, 2001, the U.S. population has a heightened awareness that tragedies can and do strike ordinary people without warning. The same can be said for the unfortunate abundance of campus shootings, where the next "9/11" occurred in 2007 on the campus of Virginia Tech. And yet, subsequent investigations into these horrific events often reveal that clues existed that might have pointed to the eventual violent outcome. It is unquestionable that to dramatically improve the safety and security of our cities we must rely upon the millions of eyes of our fellow citizens to unearth these …

Book Reviews, J. Kelly Stewart, Mark J. Roberts, Jeffery Ahn, Lloyd H. Hoffman, Donald J. Goldstein

Journal of Strategic Security

The Accidental Guerilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. By David Kilcullen.

Aviation and Airport Security: Terrorism and Safety Concerns. By Kathleen M. Sweet.

Executive Measures, Terrorism and National Security: Have the Rules of the Game Changed? By David Bonner.

Spycraft: The Secret History of the CIA's Spy techs from Communism to Al-Qaeda. By Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, with Henry Robert Schlesinger.

Troublesome Young Men: The Rebels who brought Churchill to Power and Saved England. By Lynne Olson.

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Start: Overcoming Remaining Challenges, Elizabeth Zolotukhina

Journal of Strategic Security

During the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and VladimirPutin, the governments of Russia and the United States could not agreeon how to codify their balance of strategic offensive nuclear forces after the existing Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (START) expired onDecember 5, 2009.1 The United States and Russia are currently engagedin negotiations to replace START with a new treaty before the end of this year.

The Importance Of Intelligence In Combating A Modern Insurgency, Kevin Reamer

Journal of Strategic Security

Throughout history the world has been plagued by insurgencies. While the underlying causes of each new insurgency have been different, they are all similar in certain areas. This similarity entails that the effective countering of an insurgency can be turned into a science with a set of guidelines to follow based on conditions on the ground. Guidelines are important because insurgencies are flexible and to defeat them the counterinsurgency must be equally flexible if not more flexible. Good intelligence is critical to the success of an insurgency. With their small, poorly equipped forces, the leaders of insurgencies need to know …

Film Reviews, Bart Bechtel

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.