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Analysis Of Trade Dependence And Correlation Of Market Returns To Hedge Portfolio Risk, Carl Eric Zeise

Theses Digitization Project

The project examines the relationship between trade interdependency and correlation of market returns between the United States and the four emerging economies of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The author analyzed statistical data for trade interdependency and market return to determine if there is a pattern that would provide the basis for increasing the return of a security portfolio without increasing the risk to the investor. The project analysis relied on mathematical formulas to measure the trade relationships between the selected countries and to calculate the measure of return and measure of risk of investing in each emergent market.

Semi-Strong Form Market Hypothesis: Evidence From Cnbc's Jim Cramer's Mad Money Stock Recommendations, Elizabeth Dodson

Inquiry: The University of Arkansas Undergraduate Research Journal

Mad Money has become one of the most popular shows on CNBC. The host, Jim Cramer, has an outlandish style and personality that viewers find intoxicating. Cramer's goal for the show is to make people money. Does he succeed? This paper finds that investors can expect to gain above-average, risk adjusted returns by following Cramer's stock recommendations and trading accordingly. These findings challenge the semi-strong form market hypothesis. According to this hypothesis investors should not recognize gains trading on public information since it states that the market has already adjusted prices for that information. It also contributes to current literature …

Quarter-End Effects In Banks: Preferred Habitat Or Window Dressing?, Vladimir Kotomin, Drew B. Winters

Faculty Publications – Finance, Insurance, and Law

Allen and Saunders (1992) document abnormal behavior of bank assets and liabilities at the turn-of-the-quarter and attribute it to window dressing by banks. Using different methods we re-visit bank turn-of-the-quarter balance sheet activity. We also examine quarter-end changes in the effective fed funds rates and fed funds rate standard deviations. We confirm the presence of turn-of-the-quarter activity on bank balance sheets and in the fed funds market. However, we conclude that the turn-of-the-quarter effects are more consistent with customer preferred habitats than window dressing.

Intraday Stock Prices, Volume, And Duration: A Nonparametric Conditional Density Analysis, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the distribution of high-frequency price changes, conditional on trading volume and duration between trades, on four stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The conditional probabilities are estimated nonparametrically using local polynomial regression methods. We find substantial skewness in the distribution of price changes, with the direction of skewness dependent on the sign of trade. We also find that the probability of larger price changes increases with volume, but only for trades that occur with longer durations. The distribution of price changes vary with duration primarily when volume is high.

Predicting A Currency Crisis Alternative Approaches And Applications To The Philippines, Fernando Antonio Iv Castillo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

An arrival of a currency crisis can be anticipated through a comprehensive and properly specified Early Warning System (“EWS”). The costs that entail with experiencing a currency crisis far exceed the costs of spending a considerable amount of time to developing an EWS. In a report done by the IMF(1998), they estimated that emerging economies suffer an 8% cumulative loss in real output during a severe currency crisis. Likewise, evidence suggests that a simple look at traditional market indicators of currency and default risks will not provide much advance warning of an impending currency crisis. In a study done by …

Harnessing Innovative Technologies In Higher Education: Access, Equity, Policy & Instruction, Kathleen P. King, Joan K. Griggs

Department of Leadership, Policy, and Lifelong Learning

This publication is an attempt to capture the evolution of distributed higher education over the last decade by tracing the applications of new technologies funded by the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education (FIPSE). As FIPSE surveyed the current state of distance/distributed education, there existed an opportunity to help post econdary education make the transition to this new generation of distance education made possible by the explosive growth of the Internet and other new technologies. These technologies created the potential for students to access learning that was interactive, customized, and self-paced; to more easily merge lifelong learning with the …

Re-Evaluating Hedging Performance, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

Mixed results have been documented for the performance of hedging strategies using futures. This paper reinvestigates this issue using an extensive set of performance evaluation metrics across seven international markets. We compare the hedging performance of short and long hedgers using traditional variance based approaches together with modern risk management techniques including Value at Risk, Conditional Value at Risk and approaches based on Downside Risk. Our findings indicate that using these metrics to evaluate hedging performance, yields differences in terms of best hedging strategy as compared with the traditional variance measure. We also find significant differences in performance between short …

A Note On The Instability Of The Unprojected Individual Level Premium Cost Method, Pierre Devolder, Valerie Goffin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We compare the unit credit and the unprojected individual level premium cost methods in a continuous time environment and show that the latter may produce unstable contribution rates in a dynamic environment. Specifically, assuming there are no unfunded liabilities, we prove that the unprojected individual premium cost method may produce non-bounded contributions if benefits change too close to the normal retirement age.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 13 (2006) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

Solvency Of Life Insurance Companies: Methodological Issues, Rosa Cocozza, Emilia Di Lorenzo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper deals with solvency assessment for life insurance business; some methodological issues concerning the solvency of life insurance companies, particularly connected to the investment risk, are suggested. Considerations about the technical equilibrium of an insurance portfolio and the financial regulation lead to a dynamic system involving risk measure and solvency assessment. The formal model is applied to a life annuity cohort in a stochastic context in order to exemplify the potential of the model, especially referred to the need to frame solvency assessment in a dynamic perspective.

Bayesian Analysis Of A Health Insurance Model, Helio S. Migon, Edison M.O. Penna

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the problem of determining health insurance premiums based on past information on size of loss, number of losses, and size of population at risk. The size of loss and the number of losses are treated as mutually independent random variables. The number of losses is assumed to follow a Poisson process, and the loss sizes are independent and identically distributed non-negative random variables, and the population at risk is assumed to follow a non-linear growth model. An expression for the premium is obtained through maximization of the insurer's expected utility under a Bayesian model. The parameter estimation process …

Pricing Insurance Policies With A Distribution-Free Financial Pricing Model, Min-Ming Wen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The highly skewed and heavy tailed distributions used to model insurance losses (claims) raise a concern about the validity of the applications of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to insurance pricing when market risks are essential. This paper provides an alternative pricing model, called the Rubinstein-Leland model, which can be used to price insurance contracts. The Rubinstein-Leland model has a distribution-free feature that can fully capture the asymmetry embedded in insurance losses. Thus, this model is better able to derive fair prices for insurance policies than is the CAPM.

Bivariate Archimedean Copula Models For Censored Data In Non-Life Insurance, Michel Denuit, Oana Purcaru, Ingrid Van Keilegom

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We describe a methodology based on Archimedean copulas for analyzing nonlife insurance data with censoring present. Specifically, we propose a graphical selection procedure for the nonparametric estimation of the generator. An actual loss-ALAE data set is used for the numerical illustrations and for comparisons of our approach to a few others.

Consistent Assumptions For Modeling Credit Loss Correlations, Jan Dhaene, Marc J. Goovaerts, Robert Koch, Ruben Olieslagers, Olivier Romijn, Steven Vanduffel

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a single period portfolio of n dependent credit risks that are subject to default during the period. We show that using stochastic loss given default random variables in conjunction with default correlations can give rise to an inconsistent set of assumptions for estimating the variance of the portfolio loss. Two sets of consistent assumptions are provided, which it turns out, also provide bounds on the variance of the portfolio's loss. An example of an inconsistent set of assumptions is given.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 13, 2006, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Bivariate Archimedean Copula Models for Censored Data in Non-Life Insurance • Michel Denuit, Dana Purcaru, and Ingrid Van Keilegom 5

Bayesian Analysis of Insurance Losses Using the Biihlmann-Straub Credibility Model • Abraham J. van der Merwe and Kobus N Bekker . 33

Bayesian Analysis of a Health Insurance Model • Helio S. Migon and Edison M. O. Penna 61

Solvency of Life Insurance Companies: Methodological Issues • Rosa Cocozza and Emilia Di Lorenzo . 81

Pricing Insurance Policies with a Distribution-Free Financial Pricing Model • Min-Ming Wen . 103

A Note on the Instability of the Unprojected Individual Level …

Entrepreneurial Financing—Alternatives For Raising Capital, Paul Broude, Joseph E. Levangie

New England Journal of Entrepreneurship

Most entrepreneurs are continually concerned about their finances. Their companies perhaps not yet profitable, they may have a fear of “running out of dry powder.” These entrepreneurs often have fallen in love with their company’s technologies, products, and potential markets, but they require more resources. Invariably these emerging ventures shroud their fear of the grueling capital raising marathon by presenting voluminous business plans to potential investors. They often flaunt their “optimized business models.” Investors, however, typically want to know why the potential investment is such a good deal. The entrepreneur often wants guidance regarding what to say to whom in …

Identity Theft: Who's In Your Wallet? A Look At Urban Legends And Consumers' Greatest Risks, Amber Sue Beenken

Honors Program Theses

Americans in the 21st century are obsessed with their physical health but may not be concerned enough with their financial health. One of the greatest threats to financial health today is identity theft. While identity theft is not a new phenomenon, it is becoming a greater risk every day. The alarming rate at which identity theft is increasing necessitates a closer look. Understanding consumers' greatest risks is the first step to knowing what to do when identity theft occurs, because its effects, such as loss of money, loss of time, loss of reputation, and loss of self-confidence, can be severe. …

Financial Decision-Making By University Of Northern Iowa Business Students, Steffany Mae Zabokrtsky

Honors Program Theses

We continually need to make decisions, but it is clear that, in so doing, we do not act in accordance with strict rules of rationality. For example, the effect of framing (i.e. the choice of particular words to present a given set of facts) can influence our choices, which raises some serious questions about our real freedom of choice. An increasing body of literature on framing supports a tendency for people to take more risks when seeking to avoid losses as opposed to securing gains. This is explained by framing and the value function within Tversky and Kahneman's (1981) prospect …

Divergent Opinions And Value Stock Performance, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Those who believe that capital markets—that is, markets for stocks and bonds—operate efficiently and asset prices fully reflect all publicly available information are engaged in an ongoing debate about the exact interpretation of the “value premium” with those who reject this view. Value premium refers to the superior returns generated by the purchase of value stocks relative to growth, or glamour, stocks. Rationalists, the group believing in market efficiency, argue that because value stocks are fundamentally riskier than growth stocks, the value premium is compensation for bearing risk. Behavioralists, the group arguing that market asset prices don’t reflect all publicly …

Outsourcing Central Banking: Lessons From Estonia, Sarkis Joseph Khoury, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

An orthodox currency board (CB) renders central banking redundant for interest and exchange rate determination. Thereby, monetary policy is de facto outsourced. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in banking can lead to outsourcing of the second important central bank function, responsibility for banking supervision. Economic and political conditions for outsourcing of central banking are discussed. Estonia's experience with a CB and expanding foreign involvement in banking is reviewed. The Argentine CB experience is discussed briefly to provide a contrast. The conclusion outlines the conditions for successful currency outsourcing to another country or regional authority.

The Effect Of Instructional Technologies On The Finance Classroom, Steven D. Dolvin, J. Michael Morgan, Mark Pyles

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Using a survey technique, we evaluate the effect of PowerPoint, online lecture notes, financial calculators, and machine readable forms (MRF) on students' assessment of the quality of instruction, perceived knowledge level, satisfaction, post-course interest in the subject, and average grade in introductory finance courses. We also examine these opinions on a relative basis by comparing the responses of Finance majors versus non-Finance majors. The results suggest that certain technologies are received better than others and further, that the perceived quality of instructional techniques is largely contingent on the student's choice of major.

States Fight Predatory Lending Laws In Different Ways, Giang Ho, Anthony Pennington-Cross

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

To restrict predatory lending in the subprime (high cost) mortgage market, Congress enacted in 1994 the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA). This law restricts some types of lending and requires lenders to disclose additional information about loans that have predatory features. Following the lead of federal regulations, at least 23 states, beginning with North Carolina in 1999, have introduced their own predatory lending laws, using HOEPA as a template.1

Perhaps not surprisingly, research focusing on the impact of the North Carolina law found that the rate of applications and originations for subprime loans declined after the law took …

The Evolution Of The Subprime Mortgage Market, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Anthony Pennington-Cross

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

This paper describes subprime lending in the mortgage market and how it has evolved through time. Subprime lending has introduced a substantial amount of risk-based pricing into the mortgage market by creating a myriad of prices and product choices largely determined by borrower credit history (mortgage and rental payments. foreclosures and bankruptcies, and overall credit scores) and down payment requirements. Although sub prime lending still differs from prime lending in many ways, much of the growth (at least in the securitized portion of the market) has come in the least-risky (A-) segment of the market. In addition, lenders have imposed …

Essays On Mutual Fund Governance And The Advisory Fee Contracts, Yaman Erzurum

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three studies related to corporate governance of equity mutual funds in a framework of relations between the three closely interrelated actors of mutual fund industry. The mutual fund advisers, the shareholders and the mutual fund board being the advocate of shareholders rights. The first study analyzes the advisory fee, using a survivorship bias free data set of 176 equity funds managed by 125 different advisers. The price of professional portfolio management provided by the mutual fund adviser depends not only on the fund characteristics but also on the fund objective, the adviser's portfolio related and management …

Transparency In Financial Markets And Institutions: A Catholic Social Thought Perspecitve, Bridget Lyons, Lucjan T. Orlowski

Presidential Seminar on the Catholic Intellectual Tradition

We argue that transparency, or information disclosure by public and private sector institutions should be viewed as an important component of the Catholic Social Thought process. A higher degree of transparency by a single institution denotes revealing a greater magnitude of truthful information that leads to optimization of actions by other individuals and institutions, thus ultimately, to maximization of social welfare. Based on the precepts of Catholic Social Thought, more detailed and unbiased information allows individuals to make more truthful observations of reality that subsequently rationalize their judgment and actions. This is particularly relevant for financial markets and institutions that …

Do Option Markets Substitute For Stock Markets?, Tom Arnold, Gayle Erwin, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.

Financial Efficiency In The Nonprofit Sector: An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Expense Ratios Of Kentucky Nonprofits, Emily A. Lane

MPA/MPP/MPFM Capstone Projects

Statement of Problem

Recent events in both the public and private sectors have lead to an environment of mistrust and caution surrounding the way organizations are managed and funds are handled. For the nonprofit sector, this has led to an emergence of charity rating or watchdog organizations and increased scrutiny of finances. Individual donors, charity rating agencies, and funding institutions have begun using expense ratios as a measure of financial efficiency. Decisions on the financial efficiency of organizations are being made without a good understanding of what factors affect these ratios.

Research Questions

The purpose of this paper is to …

Corporate Governance, Public Accounting Firm And Multinational Corporation: The Us Sox Act Perspective, Marc Massoud, Eunsup Daniel Shim

WCBT Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to review US corporate governance systems and to highlight the mandated roles of audit committee and external auditor within the SOX Act. In addition, it discusses requirements and implications of the SOX Act for the foreign accounting firms and multinational corporations. Finally this paper provides a perspective on improvement of corporate governance and financial integrity. In order to regain trust from the financial market, the SOX Act mandates (1) to improve auditor’s independence by reducing conflicts of interest; (2) to increase corporate financial reporting responsibility by requiring a CEO or a CFO certify accuracy …

Spatial Diversification, Dividend Policy, And Credit Scoring In Real Estate, Darren Keith Hayunga

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Built on the foundation of economic principles, real estate offers many pursuits of academic discovery within the realm of finance. This dissertation examines three areas of real estate finance. In the first chapter, I use the unique real estate characteristics of heterogeneity, immobility, and localized markets to examine the spatial aspects of large-scale commercial real estate portfolios. The results demonstrate a clear need for portfolio managers to diversify properties based upon distances between properties. The second chapter examines another large-scale real estate portfolio, the real estate investment trust, which is held by investors seeking dividend income. Despite the importance of …