Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Do Accurate Earnings Forecasts Facilitate Superior Investment Recommendations?, Roger Loh, G. Mujtaba Mian

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.

Loss Function Asymmetry And Forecast Optimality: Evidence From Individual Analysts' Forecasts, Stanimir Markov, Min Yen Tan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine the optimality of quarterly earning forecasts issued by individual analysts. When we conduct Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Least Absolute Deviations (LAD) analyses, which assume loss function symmetry, we reject the null of forecast optimality at 5% significance level more than 5% of the time. Relaxing the symmetry assumption reduces the frequency of rejections below 5%. We demonstrate that the cross-sectional variation in the asymmetry parameter of the loss function is related to analyst employment. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the joint hypothesis of asymmetric loss and forecast optimality rather than the alternative of symmetric loss and …

Housing Price Determinants In The Lynchburg, Virginia Area, Benjamin L. Ferguson

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

The effect of certain variables on the price of a house is a subject that has been very widely studied. This paper attempts to generate a pricing model for houses in the Lynchburg VA, area using the physical characteristics of a home and other locational variables. The model will attempt to create a representation of the housing price equation for the market in the area. The results of the equation will allow the ability to predict future housing prices in the market, given certain physical and locational values that are similar for the area. 3

Information Risk In The International Currency Markets: Evidence From The Violation Of Uirp, Bill B. Francis, Kimberly Gleason, Delroy M. Hunter, Charles A. Malgwi

CRIF Seminar series

Drawing on the theoretical and empirical evidence that private information risk is priced in the expected returns of equities, we hypothesize that information risk premium is an important component of the risk premium that leads to the violation of uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP). Using an asset pricing model in which the risk factors are a world currency factor, a world equity factor, and a world private information factor, we find that UIRP is violated for 28 single currencies plus the euro and that violation is due to the existence of a significant time-varying risk premium. The component of the …

Anheuser-Busch And The Eu, Keith Tolbert

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

The following paper provides analysis of Anheuser-Busch, its current position within the European Union (EU), and its opportunities/threats that exist in the EU. Included is background information about Anheuser-Busch containing its products, financial condition, and major competitors within the EU. I have provided extensive analysis o f the areas of concern for Anheuser-Busch in the EU as well as recommendations for the company to consider. The major market for opportunity covered is Germany. Anheuser-Busch is not a current competitor in Germany, however, possible expansion opportunities into the country is addressed. Additionally, a realistic outlook of Anheuser-Busch’s future other EU countries …

Modeling And Simulation Of Value -At -Risk In The Financial Market Area, Xiangyin Zheng

Doctoral Dissertations

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a statistical approach to measure market risk. It is widely used by banks, securities firms, commodity and energy merchants, and other trading organizations. The main focus of this research is measuring and analyzing market risk by modeling and simulation of Value-at-Risk for portfolios in the financial market area. The objectives are (1) predicting possible future loss for a financial portfolio from VaR measurement, and (2) identifying how the distributions of the risk factors affect the distribution of the portfolio. Results from (1) and (2) provide valuable information for portfolio optimization and risk management.

The model systems chosen …

The Value Of Foreclosed Property, Anthony Pennington-Cross

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

This paper examines the expected price appreciation of distressed property and compares it to the prevailing metropolitan area appreciation rate. Whether due to individual property or local area heterogeneity in appreciation, the results show that foreclosed property appreciates less than the area average appreciation rate. The magnitude of the deviation is sensitive to loan characteristics, legal restrictions, housing market conditions and marketing time.

Three Essays On Banking And Corporate Finance, Fang Zhao

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation is composed of three essays on banking and corporate finance. The first essay studies the relationship between interest-rate derivative usage and bank lending. Using recent data that cover a full business cycle, this paper documents a direct relationship between interest-rate derivative usage by U.S. banks and growth in their commercial and industrial (C&I) loan portfolios. This positive association holds for interest-rate options contracts, forward contracts, and futures contracts. This result is consistent with the implication of Diamond's model (1984) that predicts that a bank's use of derivatives permits better management of systematic risk exposure, thereby lowering the cost …

Getting More Out Of Two Asset Portfolios, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Two-asset portfolio mathematics is a fixture in many introductory finance and investment courses. However, the actual development of the efficient frontier and capital market line are generally left to a heuristic discussion with diagrams. In this article, the mathematics for calculating these attributes of two-asset portfolios are introduced in a framework intended for the undergraduate classroom.

Crummer Suntrust Portfolio Spring 2006, Laura Busuioc, Joseph Culhane, Zach Hedge, Bob Hughes, Casey Johnson, Vijay Marolia, Trey Mcpherson, Kimberly Pruitt, Carlos Sayde, Ryan Spoeth, Mike Treidl, James Weidner

Crummer Truist Portfolios

No abstract provided.

Employee Incentives To Make Firm Specific Investment: Implications For Resource-Based Theories Of Corporate Diversification, Heli Wang, Jay B. Barney

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We argue that the risk associated with the value of a firm's core resources has an impact on employee decisions to make firm-specific investments, independent of the threat of opportunism that might exist in a particular exchange. We further explore mechanisms firms may adopt to mitigate the employee incentive problem stemming from the risk associated with core resource value. These arguments shed new light on resource-based theories of corporate diversification.

A Hedonic Approach To Estimating Software Cost Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression And Nominal Attribute Variables, Marc D. Ellis

Theses and Dissertations

Software spending is increasing within the DoD, NASA, and other technologically advanced organizations, with significant effects on program budgets. Cost estimators must have the best tools available. However, many current models are problematic due to inaccuracy and unavailability of the input parameters, the technical expertise and expense required to operate them, and the difficulty in explaining their outputs. Two databases were analyzed: 60 NASA/JPL software projects and 116 projects from the International Software Benchmarking and Standards Group database. Models developed using ordinary least squares regression employed parameters representing the presence of project characteristics. The models' predictive characteristics were compared based …

Why Do Banks Promise To Pay Par On Demand?, Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr., Margarita Samartín

CRIF Seminar series

We survey the theories on why banks promise to pay par on demand and examine evidence on the conditions under which banks have promised to pay the par value of deposits and banknotes on demand when holding only fractional reserves. The theoretical literature can be broadly divided into four strands: liquidity provision; asymmetric information; regulatory restrictions and a medium of exchange. One strand of the literature argues that banks offer to pay par on demand in order to provide liquidity insurance services to consumers who are uncertain about their future time preferences and who have investment opportunities inconsistent with some …

Imperative Of National Savings: A Case For Adoption Of Appropriate Benchmark Price For Crude Oil., Moses F. Otu

Bullion

Budgeting involves the design of plans that aligns expected financial resources and expenditure to accomplish specific national goals and objectives. It is in this regard that this paper provides a simple framework for deriving an acceptable bench-mark price for crude oil for budgeting purposes. This is aimed at enabling the elimination of subjectivity in budgeting process and promote understanding between all the stakeholders in order to fast track the process of passage of the appropriation bill. Following a brief introduction, the paper examines the need for national saving fund and constitutional provisions for national savings. Section three focuses on the …

Is The Nigerian Curricula In Economics Relevant For The Nigerian Economy Of The 21st Century., J. A. Achilike

Bullion

The loopholes in Nigeria's educational system have created a death of capacity in the Nigerian economy. No nation can develop without qualitative education. The paper examines the relevance of the economics curricula in Nigeria's tertiary institutions in meeting the challenges of the 21st century. It highlights its problems and examines the efforts of National University Commission and Ministry of Education in meeting the challenges of economics education in Nigeria. Finally the study concludes that, the Nigerian Economics curricular is critically under developed and does not follow government economic policies, but if all the recommendations are adopted the Nigerian economics curricula …

Using Gmm To Flatten The Option Volatility Smile, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

By using an over-identified Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure with careful consideration for data biases existing in the previous literature, parameters are estimated for a stochastic volatility jump diffusion option pricing (SVJ) model. The estimated parameters indicate a statistically significant highly negative infrequent jump process in the underlying security return distribution consistent with market crashes. When comparing to a stochastic volatility (SV) option pricing model, the SVJ is more robust but not always the superior model. The robustness of the models is further gauged by evaluating performance up to a year beyond the estimation data.

Nigeria's External Trade And The New Perspectives For Its Enhancement, G. K. Sanni

Bullion

Trade has been universally acknowledged as indispensable tool to rapid economic growth and development. This is because increased participation in trade is associated with higher inflows of foreign investment and new technologies which can be adopted to transform the economy through appropriate policy. This paper analyses Nigeria's foreign trade with a view to examining the composition and direction as well as impediments to the growth of trade, and proffer suggestions for enhancing Nigeria's foreign trade. The paper is divided into five sections. Following the introduction are the theoretical issues. This is followed by the analysis in section three of the …

Cost As An Independent Variable: A Study Of Its Continued Use By Aeronautical Systems Center's Programs And Their Contractors To Set And Maintain Cost Objectives, Kevin W. Codrington

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to assess whether Aeronautical System Center's (ASC's) acquisition professionals believe CAIV has enabled their programs and contractors to set and maintain cost objectives. The three major objectives of this thesis are to answer the following questions: First, Do ASC's acquisition professionals believe their programs are setting and maintaining cost objectives? Second, Do ASC's acquisition professionals believe their contractors are setting and maintaining cost objectives? Last, what is the practitioners' perspective of CAIV? This research identified CAIV as being well received by DoD. It also identified that ASC's acquisition professionals believe their programs and contractors …

Can The Policy Trilemma Be Exposited In The Mundell-Fleming Framework?, Russell S. Boyer

CRIF Seminar series

There is a general recognition that there are deficiencies in the Mundell-Fleming model. Nonetheless, Rose [2000] has stated that Mundell was the first to exposit the Policy Trilemma, which identifies an intrinsic incompatibility among: high capital mobility, fixed exchange rates, and monetary autonomy. We look for the source of Rose’s claim. All of Mundell’s formal modeling after 1964 assumes that capital mobility is zero, so we look to earlier work for verification. The paper in Kyklos states clearly that in comparing equilibrium positions, the impotence of monetary policy is independent of the degree of capital mobility. Two further claims deriving …

Effects Of Financial Information Transparency On Investor Behavior In Taiwan Stock Market, Hsiu-Jen Fu

Graduate Student Dissertations, Theses, Capstones, and Portfolios

Corporate governance is not a new issue in today's world. Nevertheless, addressing the impact of financial information transparency on investor behavior in the stock market should be explored. With the large number of incidents of accounting fraud and misstatements revealed in the past five to six years, the integrity of business financial information becomes an increasingly important issue for investors and the general public. To provide greater definition of the roles and responsibilities of publicly-owned company executives and members of their boards of directors, U.S. President George W. Bush signed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) into law on July 30, 2002. …

Government Ownership And The Performance Of Government-Linked Companies: The Case Of Singapore, James Ang, David K. Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In an emerging economy, the alternative to government control is often no governance. We investigate the governance structure of government-linked companies (GLCs) in Singapore under the ownership/control structure of Temasek Holdings, the government holding entity, which typically owns substantial cash flow rights but disproportional control rights and exercises no operational control. We compare the financial and market performance of GLCs with non-GLCs, where each has a different set of governance structure, the key difference being government ownership. We show that Singaporean GLCs have higher valuations and better corporate governance than a control group of non-GLCs. The results hold even when …

Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, U. Çetin, Robert Jarrow, P. Protter, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option.

2005-2006 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

2005-2006 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Renminbi Revaluation, Euro Appreciation And Chinese Markets: What Can We Learn From Data?, Paul D. Mcnelis, Salih N. Neftçi

CRIF Working Paper series

This paper examines financial market data to assess the likelihood of renminbi revaluation and its implications for Chinese share price increases, given the continuing appreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar. We find that the 3-month non-deliverable forward premia are key series linking these variables. The forward premia predict series A share-price changes, while Euro/US dollar exchange rates in turn predict foreward-premia. Bayesian models outperform standard linear models for forecasting performance.

2005-2006 Revised Operating Budget: Southern University At Shreveport, Southern University System. Office Of Finance & Administration.

All Southern University System Budgets

The 2005-2006 Southern University at Shreveport Revised Operating Budget. FY 2006-2007 Budget Request.

2006-2007 Budget Request Addenda, Southern University System. Office Of Finance & Administration.

All Southern University System Budgets

The Southern University at Shreveport 2006-2007 Budget Request Addenda. Information Technology Budget Request, Operational Plan, Sunset Review Budget Request, Workforce Development Budget Request.

2006-2007 Information Technology Budget Request: Southern University At New Orleans., Southern University System: Office Of Finance & Administration.

All Southern University System Budgets

The Southern University at New Orleans Information Technology Budget Request for 2006-2007.

Indiana State University Financial Report 2006, Indiana State University

Financial Reports

No abstract provided.

Purchasing Power Parity And Heterogeneous Mean Reversion, Kees G. Koedijk, Ben Tims, Mathijs A. Van Dijk

CRIF Seminar series

This paper analyzes the properties of multivariate tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) that fail to take heterogeneity in the speed of mean reversion across real exchange rates into account. We compare the performance of homogeneous and heterogeneous unit root testing methodologies. The recent literature has successfully contested several severe restrictions on the structure of the model, but the assumption of homogeneous mean reversion is still widely used and its consequences are virtually unexplored. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we uncover important adverse properties of the methodology that relies on homogeneous estimation and testing. More specifically, power functions are low and …

Outsourcing Central Banking: Lessons From Estonia, Sarkis Joseph Khoury, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

An orthodox currency board (CB) renders central banking redundant for interest and exchange rate determination. Thereby, monetary policy is de facto outsourced. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in banking can lead to outsourcing of the second important central bank function, responsibility for banking supervision. Economic and political conditions for outsourcing of central banking are discussed. Estonia's experience with a CB and expanding foreign involvement in banking is reviewed. The Argentine CB experience is discussed briefly to provide a contrast. The conclusion outlines the conditions for successful currency outsourcing to another country or regional authority.