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Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

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Climate Risks And Market Efficiency, Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu Jan 2019

Climate Risks And Market Efficiency, Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Climate science finds that the trend towards higher global temperatures exacerbates the risks of droughts. We investigate whether the prices of food stocks efficiently discount these risks. Using data from thirty-one countries with publicly-traded food companies, we rank these countries each year based on their long-term trends toward droughts using the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A poor trend ranking for a country forecasts relatively poor profit growth for food companies in that country. It also forecasts relatively poor food stock returns in that country. This return predictability is consistent with food stock prices underreacting to climate change risks.

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Intraday Information From S&P 500 Index Futures Options, Kian Guan Lim, Chen Ying, Kian Leong Nelson Yap Jan 2019

Intraday Information From S&P 500 Index Futures Options, Kian Guan Lim, Chen Ying, Kian Leong Nelson Yap

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper we employ intraday transaction prices of liquid E-mini S&P 500 index futuresoptions to form 10-minutes ahead risk-neutral skewness forecasts and show profitable optionstrading strategy net of transaction costs. We do not find profitable trading based on 10-minutesahead risk-neutral volatility and only very marginal cases of profitable trading using kurtosisforecasts. The skewness profitability anomaly may be an indication of informational marketinefficiency in intraday S&P 500 futures options markets, which is contrary to findings usinglonger-span daily and weekly moments. Our results lend credence to the persistence of intradaytrading activities in the markets.

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Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad Jan 2019

Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, we use high frequency data and an identification via changes in volatility approach to assess the volatility spillovers among oil and the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets. We document the existence of asymmetry in contemporaneous spillover effects. Particularly, during the times when oil’s trading hours overlap with the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets, the volatility spillover from oil to the stock markets is higher than the other way around. We highlight the importance of taking into consideration the information present during continuous trading hours of oil, especially during simultaneous trading hours with the stock markets. …

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The Geography Of Csr, David K. Ding, Christo Ferreira, Udomsak Wongchoti Jan 2019

The Geography Of Csr, David K. Ding, Christo Ferreira, Udomsak Wongchoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We regress socio-economic indicators against firm level CSR scores using a sample of over 26,000 firm year observations from 1991 through 2009. We find that a firm's CSR profile is linked to the socio-economic conditions of the firm's geographic headquarters (HQ) location. The study documents that the legal, cultural, economic, and demographic differences across geography significantly explain the variation in CSR means between metropolitan statistical areas, states, and regions. We also find that the relation between CSR and firm performance is conditional on socio-economic factors, which highlight the endogeneity concerns inherent in CSR studies. Lastly, we show that firms that …

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Overseas Listing Location And Cost Of Capital: Evidence From Chinese Firms Listed In Hong Kong, Singapore, And The United States, Warrington College Of Business, Frank Weikai Li, Central University Of Finance And Economics Jan 2019

Overseas Listing Location And Cost Of Capital: Evidence From Chinese Firms Listed In Hong Kong, Singapore, And The United States, Warrington College Of Business, Frank Weikai Li, Central University Of Finance And Economics

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As at the end of 2012, more than 600 nonstate-owned Chinese firms were listed in overseas stock markets. We find that Chinese firms listed in the US have the lowest cost of capital when compared to those listed in Hong Kong and Singapore, and these results hold when controlling for firm characteristics and the endogeneity of listing locations. Cross-sectional tests indicate that listing in the US is more beneficial to those firms which face higher information asymmetry and agency costs. Overall, our evidence supports the view that the institutional environment has a first-order impact on a firm’s cost of capital.

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Sustainable Digital Finance In Asia: Creating Environmental Impact Through Bank Transformation, Ryan Knowles Merrill, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx, Sofie Blakstad Jan 2019

Sustainable Digital Finance In Asia: Creating Environmental Impact Through Bank Transformation, Ryan Knowles Merrill, Simon J.D. Schillebeeckx, Sofie Blakstad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Data is arguably the most valuable resource in the digital economy. Used effectively and responsibly it has the potential to serve as a driving force in creating a more sustainable world. The potential is especially potent in the financial sector given its central place in the financial system, and its access to and use of data.Using technologies such as blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), mobile technology, internet of things (IoT), and the cloud, data can be captured by sensors in the environment and structured to integrate sustainability into existing financial products and services. These can be creatively combined into entirely new …

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Trading Regularity And Fund Performance, Jeffrey Busse, Lin Tong, Qing Tong, Zhe Zhang Jan 2019

Trading Regularity And Fund Performance, Jeffrey Busse, Lin Tong, Qing Tong, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We construct a new measure of trading regularity, capturing the extent to which investors trade on a regular basis. Institutional investors that regularly trade outperform those that trade less regularly. The performance of funds that regularly trade persists for at least a year. Among those who trade most regularly, larger funds perform relatively worse, because they incur higher transaction costs associated with their larger trades. Institutions that regularly trade generate superior performance, in part, by behaving as contrarians and by trading more aggressively on information. By contrast, we find no relation between trading regularity and performance among index funds.

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Robo-Advisors And Wealth Management, Kok Fai Phoon, Cher Chiew Francis Koh Dec 2018

Robo-Advisors And Wealth Management, Kok Fai Phoon, Cher Chiew Francis Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The recent rise of robo-advisors (RAs) has threatened the traditional fund and wealth management industry. RAs' assets under management (AUM) have risen manyfold through competitiveness on pricing, transparency and services and better expected returns linked to the use of quantitative finance and technology with less subjective human intervention. This article examines the postulation that RAs have an edge over traditional wealth managers. RAs can combine the judgement and computing resources of both human and machine, or bionic power, to provide alternative wealth management services to meet the diverse needs of private wealth clients. However, the authors expect traditional wealth managers …

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Managing Swaption Portfolio Risk Under Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee Dec 2018

Managing Swaption Portfolio Risk Under Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Efficient risk managing of swaption portfolios is crucial in the hedging of interest rate exposure. This paper formulates a portfolio risk management framework under stochastic volatility models. The implication of using the right volatility backbone in the stochastic-alpha-beta-rho (SABR) model is analyzed. In order to handle negative interest rates, we derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with closed-form analytical expression for swaption pricing. We demonstrate that the dynamics naturally allow for negative rates, and is also able to fit the market well. Finally, we show that choosing the right backbone in the DDSV model results in optimal hedging performance …

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Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo Dec 2018

Sensation Seeking And Hedge Funds, Stephen Brown, Yan Lu, Sugata Ray, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that motivated by sensation seeking, hedge fund managers who own powerful sports cars take on more investment risk but do not deliver higher returns, resulting in lower Sharpe ratios, information ratios, and alphas. Moreover, sensation-seeking managers trade more frequently, actively, and unconventionally, and prefer lottery-like stocks. We show further that some investors are themselves susceptible to sensation seeking and that sensation-seeking investors fuel the demand for sensation-seeking managers. While investors perceive sensation seekers to be less competent, they do not fully appreciate the superior investment skills of sensation-avoiding fund managers.

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Executive Overconfidence And Securities Class Actions, Suman Banerjee, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Vikram Nanda, T. Mandy Tham Dec 2018

Executive Overconfidence And Securities Class Actions, Suman Banerjee, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Vikram Nanda, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Overconfident CEOs/senior executives tend to have excessively positive views of their own skills and their company’s future performance. We hypothesize that overconfident managers are more likely to engage in reckless or intentional actions/disclosures that give rise to securities class actions (SCAs). Empirical evidence is supportive: Overconfident CEOs/senior executives increase SCA likelihood, though litigation risk is ameliorated through improved governance, such as following the Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002. Post-SCA, companies are less likely to hire an overconfident CEO. Following an SCA, overconfident CEOs appear to moderate behavior and to reduce their litigation risk.

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Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez Dec 2018

Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Markets seem to be assuming an almost pre-set path of Fed policy normalization in 2019, including hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. In contrast, we see many uncertainties ahead.

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Commonality: A Longitudinal Study, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee Dec 2018

Commonality: A Longitudinal Study, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The commonality in the asset characteristics such as returns, liquidity and other non-trade parameters attracted intense research interest in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the longitudinal trend in commonality for the duration 2000-2016, an extensive that include years of boom and bust in the financial market. Our results show that while market has become more fragmented, commonality in returns has doubled over this period. This observation holds across all exchanges, with a clear trend of convergence in exchange-wide commonality over time due to increased information efficiency. We develop a unified methodology to systematically accommodate all explanatory factors for …

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Commodity Return Predictability: Evidence From Implied Variance, Skewness And Their Risk Premia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Jose Renato Haas Ornelas Dec 2018

Commodity Return Predictability: Evidence From Implied Variance, Skewness And Their Risk Premia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Jose Renato Haas Ornelas

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the role of realized and implied and their risk premia (variance and skewness) for commodities’ future returns. We estimate these moments from high frequency and commodity futures option data that results in forward-looking measures. Risk premia are computed as the difference between implied and realized moments. We highlight, from a cross-sectional and time series perspective, the strong positive relation between commodity returns and implied skewness. Moreover, we emphasize the high performance of skewness risk premium. Additionally, we show that their portfolios exhibit the best risk-return tradeoff. Most of our results are robust to other factors such as …

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Partisan Conflict And Stock Price, Dashan Huang, Wang Liyao Nov 2018

Partisan Conflict And Stock Price, Dashan Huang, Wang Liyao

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Partisan conflict has been one dominant theme in U.S. politics in recent years. By using the textual index of Azzimonti (2018), this paper shows that partisan conflict positively predicts market returns, controlling for economic predictors and proxies for uncertainty, disagreement, geopolitical risk, and political sentiment. A one standard-deviation increase in partisan conflict is associated with a 0.58% increase in next month market return. The forecasting power concentrates in periods when the president is from the Republican Party or the majority of House is Republicans. Partisan conflict is positively related to downside risk, and makes investors more conservative when its value …

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Assessing The Effects Of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reforms On Liquidity In The Singapore Government Securities And Mas Bills Market, John M. Sequeira Nov 2018

Assessing The Effects Of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reforms On Liquidity In The Singapore Government Securities And Mas Bills Market, John M. Sequeira

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The FSB initiated in 2017 an evaluation of the effects of post-crisis regulatory reforms, by developing a framework to assess whether the reforms are achieving their intended outcomes and identify any material unintended consequences. In tandem, MAS established an evaluation framework, which covers four broad impact areas, comprising FIs, financial markets, financial end-users and the broader financial landscape. Internationally, there have been particular concerns over whether post-crisis reforms may have impaired liquidity conditions in specific financial markets. We provide an assessment of the effects of the reforms on liquidity in a key market in Singapore, the SGS and MAS bills …

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New Factors Wanted: Evidence From A Simple Specification Test, Ai He, Dashan Huang, Guofu Zhou Oct 2018

New Factors Wanted: Evidence From A Simple Specification Test, Ai He, Dashan Huang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, we examine the pricing errors (PEs) of three kinds of factor models: a) six well known ones– the CAPM, the Fama-French three-factor model, the Carhart four-factor model, the Fama-French five-factor model, the Hou-Xue-Zhang Q-factor model, and the Stambaugh-Yuan mispricing-factor model; b) principal component factors of sixty-two anomalies; c) extracted statistical factors. We find that there is a systematic PE reversal pattern. A spread portfolio that buys stocks in the bottom PE decile and sells stocks in the top PE decile earns significant abnormal returns across all the models, implying that none of them is adequate in explaining …

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Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu Sep 2018

Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the disciplinary effect of foreign institutional investors on opportunistic insider trading. Using a novel global insider trading data set containing 35,557 firms from 26 countries over the period 2000-2015, we find that greater foreign institutional ownership significantly reduces the profitability of insider trading, above and beyond the effect of domestic institutional ownership. Using the exogenous variation in foreign institutional ownership induced by MSCI index inclusion, we show that the effect is causal. The impact of foreign investors is stronger in countries with weak insider trading regulations and poor institutional environments, and operates mainly through the monitoring channel, …

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Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu Sep 2018

Monitoring From Afar: Do Foreign Institutional Investors Deter Insider Trading?, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the disciplinary effect of foreign institutional investors on opportunistic insider trading. Using a novel global insider trading data set containing 35,557 firms from 26 countries over the period 2000-2015, we find that greater foreign institutional ownership significantly reduces the profitability of insider trading, above and beyond the effect of domestic institutional ownership. Using the exogenous variation in foreign institutional ownership induced by MSCI index inclusion, we show that the effect is causal. The impact of foreign investors is stronger in countries with weak insider trading regulations and poor institutional environments, and operates mainly through the monitoring channel, …

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Warrants And Their Underlying Stocks: Microstructure Evidence From An Emerging Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti Sep 2018

Warrants And Their Underlying Stocks: Microstructure Evidence From An Emerging Market, Charlie Charoenwong, David K. Ding, Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Stock Exchange of Thailand provides an ideal platform for comparing the trading characteristics of warrants and their underlying stocks since both of them trade in the same market under identical trading rules. If their patterns diverge significantly, it may be possible for an astute trader to devise profitable arbitrage strategies during the life of the warrants. We find that both their patterns are downward-sloping for spreads, U-shaped for flow toxicity, volatility, depth concentration, and trading volume; and upward-sloping for depth and market order flow ratio. This implies that trading under identical market structures leads to similar trading characteristics. We …

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Investors' Evaluations Of Price-Increase Preannouncements, Leon Gim Lim, Kapil R. Tuli, Marnik G. Dekimpe Sep 2018

Investors' Evaluations Of Price-Increase Preannouncements, Leon Gim Lim, Kapil R. Tuli, Marnik G. Dekimpe

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Several firms preannounce their price increases with the expectation that such announcements will be evaluated favorably by investors. However, little is known about the actual effect they have on shareholder value. Accordingly, the authors present the first systematic empirical examination of investors' evaluations of 274 price-increase preannouncements (PIPs). Results show that whereas the average increase in abnormal returns following a PIP is 0.51%, almost 41% of the PIPs result in negative abnormal returns. To explore this heterogeneity, the authors propose a conceptual framework that focuses on three key pieces of information that investors can use when evaluating a PIP: information …

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The Informational Role Of Overconfident Ceos, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang Aug 2018

The Informational Role Of Overconfident Ceos, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how overconfident CEOs communicate with the market and whether this has implications on the firm’s information environment. Textual analysis reveals that overconfident CEOs communicate using less negative tone in their 10K/Q filings. Our evidence suggests that overconfident CEOs provide market participants with more value-relevant information as sell-side analysts make more accurate forecasts of their firm’s future earnings. Consistent with a reduction in asymmetric information, implied cost of equity capital is lower. However, not all investors benefit as the information advantage of short sellers disappears in the stocks of overconfident CEOs.

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A Signaling Theory Of Institutional Activism: How Norway’S Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments Affect Firms’ Foreign Acquisitions, Gurneeta Vasudeva, Lilac Nachum, Gui-Deng Say Aug 2018

A Signaling Theory Of Institutional Activism: How Norway’S Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments Affect Firms’ Foreign Acquisitions, Gurneeta Vasudeva, Lilac Nachum, Gui-Deng Say

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Combining perspectives from institutional activism and signaling theory literatures, we suggest that an activist sovereign wealth fund (SWF) can serve as an intermediary signaler, providing cues about host countries’ institutional environment to internationalizing firms. By publicizing its investments and engaging in institutional activism, a SWF can signal the institutional quality of host countries to internationalizing firms, thus allowing them to overcome the well-known “lemons problem” in international decision-making. We examine the impact of a SWF’s signals on firms’ ownership choices in their foreign acquisitions. Our empirical analysis of Norway’s socially responsible SWF and firms from Norway and Sweden during 1998–2011 …

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The Evolution Of The French Cfos' Role Since The Introduction Of The Financial Market Logic, Redon Marie, Toru Yoshikawa, Berland Nicolas Aug 2018

The Evolution Of The French Cfos' Role Since The Introduction Of The Financial Market Logic, Redon Marie, Toru Yoshikawa, Berland Nicolas

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper highlights the changes of the Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) role since the introduction of the financial market logic in France. Through an analysis of thirty-seven interviews with CFOs and observations during events organized by the professional association of CFOs, we show that the CFOs’ role evolved in different pathways depending on the relationships between logics. We contribute to the literature that studies professions from an institutional perspective by responding to the question of whether professionals change their role when the logic to which they adhere and from which they derive their role is being challenged, or whether institutional …

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Choosing The Precision Of Performance Metrics, Alan D. Crane, Andrew Koch, Chi Shen Wei Aug 2018

Choosing The Precision Of Performance Metrics, Alan D. Crane, Andrew Koch, Chi Shen Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

There is a standard trade-off in contracts between the provision of incentives and insurance. We hypothesize that this trade-off influences the precision with which firm performance is measured. We find that firm outcomes are measured less precisely when chance plays a large role in these outcomes. Further, this precision is determined through the choice of shares outstanding. This has several novel implications. Nominal stock prices can remain constant over time, and firms with unpredictable cash flows should have more shares and lower stock price levels, all else equal. We find evidence consistent with these implications.

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Public Hedge Funds, Lin Sun, Melvyn Teo Aug 2018

Public Hedge Funds, Lin Sun, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds managed by listed firms significantly under-perform funds managed by unlisted firms. The under-performance is more severe for funds with low manager deltas, poor governance, and no manager co-investment, or managed by firms whose prices are sensitive to earnings news. Notwithstanding the under-performance, listed asset management firms raise more capital, by growing existing funds and launching new funds post listing, and harvest greater fee revenues than do comparable unlisted firms. The results are consistent with the view that, for asset management firms, going public weakens the alignment between ownership, control, and investment capital, thereby engendering conflicts of interest.

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Marking To Market And Inefficient Investment Decisions, Clemens A. Otto, Paolo F. Volpin Aug 2018

Marking To Market And Inefficient Investment Decisions, Clemens A. Otto, Paolo F. Volpin

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine how mark-to-market accounting affects the investment decisions of managers with reputation concerns. Reporting the current market value of a firm’s assets can help mitigate agency problems because it provides outsiders (e.g., shareholders) with new information against which the management’s decisions can be evaluated. However, the fact that the assets’ market value is informative can also have a negative side effect: managers may shy away from investments that indicate conflicting private information and would damage their reputation. This effect can lead to inefficient investment decisions and make marking to market less desirable when market prices are more informative.

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Place, Space, And Foreign Direct Investment Into Peripheral Cities, Conor Mcdonald, Peter J. Buckley, Hinrich Voss, Adam R. Cross, Liang Chen Aug 2018

Place, Space, And Foreign Direct Investment Into Peripheral Cities, Conor Mcdonald, Peter J. Buckley, Hinrich Voss, Adam R. Cross, Liang Chen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Perspectives drawn from the economic geography literature are increasingly used to generate insights into locational issues in international business. In this paper, we seek to integrate these literatures further by investigating the locational determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into peripheral cities within an emerging economy. Peripheral cities in emerging economies are attracting a growing proportion of global FDI flows, but the international business literature lacks a framework for understanding subnational determinants of FDI, particularly into non-core locations. We draw on the core-periphery model to build and test theory on how spatial interdependencies between subnational locations impact on the distribution …

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Do Hedge Funds Exploit Rare Disaster Concerns?, George P. Gao, Pengjie Gao, Zhaogang Song Jul 2018

Do Hedge Funds Exploit Rare Disaster Concerns?, George P. Gao, Pengjie Gao, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find hedge funds that have higher return covariation with a disaster concern index, which we develop through out-of-the-money puts on various economic sector indices, earn significantly higher returns in the cross-section. We provide evidence that these funds’ managers are more skilled at exploiting the market’s ex ante rare disaster concerns (SEDs), which may not be associated with disaster risk. In particular, high-SED funds, on average, outperform low-SED funds by 0.96% per month, but have less exposure to disaster risk. They continue to deliver superior future performance when SEDs are estimated using the disaster concern index purged of disaster risk …

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The Real Effects Of Exchange Traded Funds, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Chengzhu Sun Jul 2018

The Real Effects Of Exchange Traded Funds, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the effects of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the real efficiency of the underlying securities. We document strong evidence that being held by ETFs increases the sensitivity of a firm's investment to its own stock price. This is consistent with the model prediction on the managerial learning channel. Higher ownership by ETFs increases the firm's stock price informativeness about systematic shocks but may decrease the informativeness about firm-specific shocks; however, the firm manager cares most and wants to learn from the stock price mainly about systematic shocks in making investment decisions as he already has precise private information …

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