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Articles 241 - 270 of 700
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.
The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper documents that stocks with a decreasing (increasing) trend in their short selling as proxied by the long-term change in short interest experience significant and positive (negative) abnormal returns. Moreover, the positive abnormal returns have larger absolute values and are more persistent. The return predictability of the trend in short selling is not subsumed by the level of short interest and other well-known determinants of stock returns. Investor sentiment does not affect the profitability of the trend strategy. Our results suggest that market participants underreact to public information on short interest and that short sellers are sophisticated investors.
Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this article, the authors propose a simple and novel measure of relative strength over investment horizons that synthesizes short- and intermediate-term price information. The relative-strength measure compares the short-term price trend with the intermediate-term price trend. The relative strength strategy generates substantial profits, which are greater than a simple sum of traditional short-term reversal and momentum profits. The superior performance of the relative strength strategy is evident after risk adjustments for various factor models and is robust across subperiods and different market conditions. These findings seem consistent with investor conservatism and the idea that investors are slow to adjust …
Etf Momentum, Frank Weikai Li, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Chloe Chunliu Yang
Etf Momentum, Frank Weikai Li, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Chloe Chunliu Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We document economically large momentum profits when sorting ETFs on returns over the past two to four years. A value-weighted, long-short strategy based on ETF momentum delivers Carhart (1997) four-factor alphas of up to 1.20% per month. Neither cross-sectional stock momentum nor co-variation with macroeconomic and liquidity risks can explain ETF momentum. Instead, the post-holding period returns are most consonant with the behavioral story of delayed overreaction. While ETF momentum survives multiple adjustments for transaction costs, it may be difficult to arbitrage as the profits are volatile and concentrated in ETFs with high idiosyncratic volatility or that hold low-analyst-coverage stocks.
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyse empirically the drivers of freight market volatility. We use several macroeconomic and shipping-related factors that are known to affect the supply and demand for shipping and examine their impact on the term structure of freight options implied volatilities (IV). We find that the level of IVs is affected by the level of the spot rate, the slope of the forward curve, as well as by both demand and supply factors, especially the former. We demonstrate that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is non-monotonic and convex, that is, it …
Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang
Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the effect of social trust on local bias. Our evidence suggests that institutional investors located in high-trust regions of the United States exhibit lower local bias. Moreover, we find that high-trust investors are better diversified, suggesting that trust helps accomplish greater diversification. The results are not due to firm, demographic, or local economic characteristics. Additional analysis reveals that the documented informational advantage in local holdings exists only in low-trust regions. We show that this finding is consistent with a trust explanation.
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A breakdown of cross-market arbitrage activity could make markets more fragile and result in price crashes. We provide suggestive evidence for this novel channel based on a high-frequency analysis of the most salient crash in recent history: The Flash Crash. We further show that such an event can be extremely costly for a large seller trading in a particular venue as the seller effectively relies on local liquidity supply only. These findings highlight the vulnerability of today's highly fragmented markets.
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using option market data we derive naturally forward-looking, non-parametric and model-free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option-implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option-implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results …
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).
Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad
Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.
Text Sophistication And Sophisticated Investors, Juha Joenvaara, Jari Karppinen, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Cristian Ioan Tiu
Text Sophistication And Sophisticated Investors, Juha Joenvaara, Jari Karppinen, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Cristian Ioan Tiu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that two novel measures of text sophistication, applied to hedge fund strategy descriptions, encapsulate incremental information about funds. Consistent with the linguistics literature, hedge funds with lexically diverse strategy descriptions outperform, eschew tail risk, and encounter fewer regulatory problems. In line with the literature, hedge funds with syntactically complex strategy descriptions report more regulatory violations and trigger more severe infractions. Fund investors recognize the dichotomy and direct flows accordingly, but not enough to erode away the alphas of lexically diverse funds. Our findings suggest that text sophistication measures provide texture on the cognitive ability and trustworthiness of sophisticated …
Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Swaption Portfolio Risk Management: Optimal Model Selection In Different Interest Rate Regimes, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We formulate a risk-based swaption portfolio management framework for profit-and-loss (P&L) explanation. We analyze the implication of using the right volatility backbone in the pricing model from a hedging perspective, and demonstrate the importance of incorporating stability and robustness measure as part of the calibration process for optimal model selection. We also derive a displaced-diffusion stochastic volatility (DDSV) model with a closed-form analytical expression to handle negative interest rates. Finally, we show that our framework is able to identify the optimal pricing model, which leads to superior P&L explanation and hedging performance.
Mortgage Dollar Roll, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu
Mortgage Dollar Roll, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Mortgage dollar roll, the most common financing strategy for agency MBS, differs from repo in that the returned collateral can differ from those received. Also, MBS ownership changes hands in the funding period. We show that dollar roll “specialness,” how much implied financing rates fall below MBS repo rates, (1) increases in the value of the cheapest-to-deliver option, (2) decreases in the leverage of primary dealers, (3) decreases in prepayment risk exposure during the financing period, and (4) decreases in MBS returns. The Federal Reserve’s dollar roll sales in quantitative easing operations are associated with lower specialness.
The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li
The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We present evidence of investors underreacting to the absence of events in financialmarkets. Routine-based insiders strategically choose to be silent when they possessprivate information not yet reflected in stock prices. Consistent with our hypothesis,insider silence following routine sell (buy) predict positive (negative) future return aswell as fundamentals. The return predictability of insider silence is stronger amongfirms with poor information environment and facing higher arbitrage costs, and alarge fraction of abnormal returns concentrates on future earnings announcements. Along-short strategy that exploits insiders’ strategic silence behavior generates abnormalreturns of 6% to 10% annually
Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu
Momentum And Reversal: The Role Of Short Selling, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper investigates the relation between short selling and momentum. We document that a consistent momentum strategy that buys lightly shorted winners and sells heavily shorted losers exhibits strong short-term momentum and no long-term reversal. In contrast, an inconsistent momentum strategy that buys heavily shorted winners and sells lightly shorted losers experiences weak short-term momentum and persistent long-term reversal. Our results are robust after controlling for firm characteristics, proxy for short-sale constraints, and investor sentiment, as well as an exogenous shock (the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997). These findings present a new challenge to existing theories of momentum that rely …
Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere, George P. Gao, Xiaomeng Lu, Zhaogang Song
Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere, George P. Gao, Xiaomeng Lu, Zhaogang Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We show that the beta with respect to an index of global ex ante tail risk concerns (��ℝ����), which we construct using out-of-the-money options on multiple global assets, negatively drives cross-sectional return variations across asset classes, including international equity indices, foreign currencies, and government bond futures. The pricing power of ��ℝ���� becomes stronger when more asset-class-level tail risk concerns are incorporated in the index construction. ��ℝ���� also dominates asset-class-level tail risk concerns in pricing assets within each asset class. These evidences imply that the pricing effect of tail risk concerns works predominantly as a global channel. The ��ℝ���� pricing effect …
The Information In Asset Fire Sales, Sheng Huang, Matthew C. Ringgenberg, Zhe Zhang
The Information In Asset Fire Sales, Sheng Huang, Matthew C. Ringgenberg, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Duplicate record, see https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/lkcsb_research/5894/. Asset prices remain depressed for several years following mutual fund fire sales. We show that price pressure from fire sales is partly due to asymmetric information which leads to an adverse selection problem for arbitrageurs. After a flow shock, fund managers do not scale down their portfolio, rather, they choose to sell a subset of low-quality stocks that subsequently underperform. In other words, fund managers have selling skill. Our findings suggest an explanation for the tendency of asset prices to remain depressed following fire sales: information asymmetries make it difficult for arbitrageurs to disentangle pure …
Industry Return Predictability: A Machine Learning Approach, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Industry Return Predictability: A Machine Learning Approach, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this article, the authors use machine learning tools to analyze industry return predictability based on the information in lagged industry returns. Controlling for post-selection inference and multiple testing, they find significant in-sample evidence of industry return predictability. Lagged returns for the financial sector and commodity- and material-producing industries exhibit widespread predictive ability, consistent with the gradual diffusion of information across economically linked industries. Out-of-sample industry return forecasts that incorporate the information in lagged industry returns are economically valuable: Controlling for systematic risk using leading multifactor models from the literature, an industry-rotation portfolio that goes long (short) industries with the …
Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, And Firms Information Environment, Jarrad Harford, Feng Jiang, Rong Wang, Fei Xie
Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, And Firms Information Environment, Jarrad Harford, Feng Jiang, Rong Wang, Fei Xie
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Analysts strategically allocate more effort to portfolio firms that are relatively more important to their careers. Thus, the other firms the analysts cover indirectly affect a firm’s information environment. Controlling for analyst and firm characteristics, we find that an analyst makes more accurate, frequent, and informative earnings forecasts and recommendations for firms ranked higher within her portfolio based on proxies for importance to institutions. A firm’s relative rank widely varies across analysts, but its information environment improves when a larger proportion of analysts consider it to be relatively important. Analysts experience more favorable career outcomes when strategically allocating their efforts.
Biclustering Via Mixtures Of Regression Models, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee
Biclustering Via Mixtures Of Regression Models, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Biclustering of observations and the variables is of interest in many scientific disciplines. In a single set of data matrix it is handled through the singular value decomposition. Here we deal with two sets of variables: response and predictor sets. We model the joint relationship via regression models and then apply SVD on the coefficient matrix. The sparseness condition is introduced via Group Lasso. The approach discussed here is quite general and is illustrated with an example from Finance.
Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang
Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The Dodd–Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repealed the exemption of credit rating agencies (CRAs) from Regulation Fair Disclosure. Testing whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal, the authors find that the significant prerepeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change. Bond price reactions, however, remain significant. These results are even more significant at the investment–speculative boundary. Evidence suggests that CRAs served as a conduit for transmitting private information before the repeal and that the continued bond price reactions are likely due to regulations favoring higher-rated bonds.
Informed Options Trading Prior To Bankruptcy Filings, Li Ge, Jianfeng Hu, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Tse-Chun Lin
Informed Options Trading Prior To Bankruptcy Filings, Li Ge, Jianfeng Hu, Mark Humphery-Jenner, Tse-Chun Lin
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Prior evidence on pre-bankruptcy-filing informed trade is mixed. The inconclusive findings might result from the sole focus on stock trading. We reassess the presence of pre-filing informed and insider trades by examining the information content of options trading before bankruptcy announcements. We find that bankruptcy filing returns are not significantly related to pre-filing insider stock trading. However, filing returns are significantly negatively related to pre-filing insider and informed options trading. The informational content of options trading reduces with options illiquidity and the amount of information impounded into pre-filing stock prices.
Robust Measures Of Earnings Surprises, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
Robust Measures Of Earnings Surprises, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We showthat CE is a poor parameter-free approximation for this ideal measure. The fractionof misses on the same side (FOM), by discarding the magnitude of misses, offers a farbetterapproximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting thereturns of US stocks, where bias is potentially large, than that of international …
Stock Market Responses To Unethical Behavior In Organizations: An Organizational Context Model, Bradford E. Baker, Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Marko Pitesa, Micheal D. Johnson
Stock Market Responses To Unethical Behavior In Organizations: An Organizational Context Model, Bradford E. Baker, Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Marko Pitesa, Micheal D. Johnson
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We develop and test a model that extends the understanding of how people react to news of organizational unethical behavior and how such reactions impact stock performance. We do so by taking into account the interplay between the features of specific unethical acts and the features of the organizational context within which unethical acts occur. We propose a two-stage model in which the first stage predicts that unethical acts that benefit the organization are judged less harshly than are unethical acts that benefit the actor, when the organization is seen as pursuing a moral goal (e.g., producing inexpensive medicine rather …
Order Flow Volatility And Equity Costs Of Capital, Tarun Chordia, Jianfeng Hu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Qing Tong
Order Flow Volatility And Equity Costs Of Capital, Tarun Chordia, Jianfeng Hu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Qing Tong
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We propose that the volatility of order flow is a proxy for costs of information asymmetry, as order flow volatility varies positively with parameters that also influence adverse selection costs of trading. Empirically, order flow volatility is significantly higher prior to earnings or merger announcements when information asymmetry is likely to be elevated. Levels of and shocks to order flow volatility are positively and significantly correlated with existing illiquidity proxies, and strongly predict stock returns in the cross section. The impact of order imbalance volatility shocks on stock prices is reflected within one month in large, visible stocks, but takes …
Reputation Concerns Under At-Will Employment, Jian Sun, Dong Wei
Reputation Concerns Under At-Will Employment, Jian Sun, Dong Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study a continuous-time model of long-run employment relationship with fixed wage and at-will firing; that is, termination of the relationship is non-contractible. Depending on his type, the worker either always works hard, or can freely choose his effort level. The firm does not know the worker’s type and the monitoring is imperfect. We show that, in the unique Markov equilibrium, as the worker’s reputation worsens, his job becomes less secure and the strategic worker works harder. We further demonstrate that the relationship between average productivity and job insecurity is U shaped, which is consistent with typical findings in the …
Establishing An Asia-Pacific Cryptocurrency Hub, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol
Establishing An Asia-Pacific Cryptocurrency Hub, Arnat Leemakdej, Chiyachantana N. Chiraphol
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Asia is leading the way in digital asset markets, but individual countries are taking markedly different paths toward regulation and management in establishing themselves as cryptocurrency hubs, balancing innovation and regulation. Investors should be vigilant about the risks associated with alternative capital-raising methods.
Scaled Pca: A New Approach To Dimension Reduction, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Scaled Pca: A New Approach To Dimension Reduction, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The notion that bond risk premium varies with business cycles is challenged once real time macro data are used. In this paper, we argue that the macro factors extracted by using the standard PCA are not the most relevant for forecasting bond risk premium, because the PCA factors are designed to explain the most variation of macro data instead of the variation of bond risk premium. With the latter objective in mind, we propose a scaled PCA (sPCA) approach, which incorporates the information in bond risk premium in the factor extraction procedure. The real time macro sPCA factors have much …
Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, And Kurtosis And The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns, Turan Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Murray Scott
Option Implied Volatility, Skewness, And Kurtosis And The Cross-Section Of Expected Stock Returns, Turan Bali, Jianfeng Hu, Murray Scott
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns are related to both the systematic and unsystematic components of volatility, only the unsystematic components of skewness and kurtosis are related to the cross section of expected stock returns after controlling for other variables known to be related to the cross section of expected stock returns or analyst forecast bias.