Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Exchange Rate Adjustment And Output In South-East Asia, Kamal P. Upadhyaya, Robert Ranish, Neetu Kaushik, Rabindra Bhandari

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper studies the effect of currency devaluation on aggregate output level in South- East Asian countries using panel data from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines for a period from 1980 to 2010. An empirical model that includes monetary, fiscal and exchange rate variables is developed. Two versions of the model, one with real exchange rate and another with nominal exchange rate and foreign-to-domestic price ratio are estimated. An error correction model is developed and the time series properties of the panel data are diagnosed before estimating the model. The estimated results suggest that currency devaluations are contractionary in …

Do Neglected Firms Suffer From An Information Deficit?, Kenneth Yung, Hamid Rahman, Qian Sun

Finance Faculty Publications

We study the presence and distribution of private information in neglected firm stocks using a measure of private information first suggested by Roll (1988). Our results suggest that there is no shortage of information on neglected firms for investors and that this private information forms part of the decision set for managerial decisions. Our results indicate a significant negative correlation between the amount of private information and certain important firm characteristics such as market size, cash flow, sales and return on assets. When the impact of private information is analyzed on the investment and payout policies of the neglected firms, …

An Easy Method To Introduce Mirr Into Introductory Finance Classes, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

In this paper, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) is demonstrated to be a holding period return calculation that is not dependent on knowing a project's internal rate of return (IRR) nor the process for finding the IRR. Further, the MIRR calculation can be directly connected to the calculation of the profitability index (PI) and the net present value (NPV) if project cash flows are discounted using a firm's weighted average cost of capital. This connection to the PI and NPV allows for an intuitively appealing presentation of the MIRR calculation.

Financial Framework For Global Investment And Implications, Robert Ranish, Pawel Mensz

Finance Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to describe a valuation decision model for a firm in a multi -country environment. The paper extends the works of Myers, Myers and Pogue and Lev to include individual investment project decisions to the global marketplace. The model integrates the buy or builds decision, the location of production, distribution decision and tax effects into the capital investment decision of the firm. The model shows that a firm's production decision (buy or build), the customer location and tax effects are interdependent. The model to optimize the value of the firm is a function of the …

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Trading Volume And Overconfidence With Differential Information And Heterogeneous Investors, Kenneth Yung, Qian Sun, Hamid Rahman

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper adds to the overconfidence literature by specifically considering the differential nature of information and its use by different classes of investors. The literature suggests that overconfidence is a major determinant of stock trading volume. We postulate that private investors are more prone to overconfidence bias as compared to institutional investors. This implies that turnover in firms with low institutional ownership will be driven more by private information while turnover in firms with high institutional ownership will be driven more by public information. This is the essence of the two hypotheses we explore. We find strong evidence in support …

Creditor Rights And R&D Expenditures, Bruce Seifert, Halit Gonenc

Finance Faculty Publications

Manuscript Type: Empirical

Research Question?Issue: This study examines the impact of creditor rights on R&D intensity (R&D/total assets). We argue that managers in countries with strong creditor rights have more incentives to reduce cash flow risk and therefore limit expenditures on R&D more than managers located in countries with weak creditor rights.

Research Findings/Insights: Using a sample of over 21,000 firms from 41 countries, our research is one of the first to document that strong creditor rights are indeed associated with reduced R&D intensity. This negative relationship is observed in market‐based countries, but not in bank‐based countries. Moreover, the results …

Club Good Influence On Residential Transaction Prices, J. Andrew Hansz, Darren K. Hayunga

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine residential real estate transactions in a market where an additional property right to a club good may have an influence on prices. We find that for single-family property, the market capitalizes approximately 50% of the full value of the extra property right. For condominiums, the amount reduces to approximately 25%. While these amounts are positive, they clearly are significantly lower than full value.

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Extending The Arnold-Eisemann Algorithm For Pro Forma Circularity With A Specific Mix Of New Debt And New Equity, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Arnold and Eisemann (2008) developed an algorithm that calculates the value of long-term debt when long-term debt is considered the "plug" or "slack" term within a pro forma analysis. In this paper, the algorithm is presented in a slightly different form and adjusted for the use of a target mix of new debt and new stock.

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Maintaining A Flexible Payout Policy In A Mature Industry: The Case Of Crown Cork And Seal In The Connelly Era, James Ang, Tom Arnold, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

As related in these pages, the history of Crown Cork and Seal (hereafter known as “Crown”) provides us with a case of a company that stopped paying dividends but establish a disciplined share repurchase policy and did so for all the right reasons. Under family ownership in the 1950s, Crown lost market share and was on the brink of bankruptcy when its largest shareholder, John Connelly, was elected chairman of the board in 1957. Under John Connelly’s leadership, the firm restructured its operations and began a payout policy based solely on stock repurchases. During the Connelly era, the firm did …

Real Options Analysis And The Assumptions Of Corporate Finance: A Non-Technical Review, Tom Arnold, Richard L. Shockley Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper provides a non-technical presentation of the theoretical foundations of corporate financial decision making and the net present value (NPV) rule. Our objective is to show that the concepts of value and value creation arise from a single, unified framework that is firmly rooted in neoclassical microeconomic theory. This, in turn, allow us to demonstrate that the corporate valuation approach generically known as real options analysis is perfectly justifiable - without further qualification - in any situation when investors want managers to maximize NPV.

Risky Asset Substitution In The Insurance Industry: An Historical Example, Brenda Wells, Karen Epermanis, Larry A. Cox, Michael Mcshane

Finance Faculty Publications

In the 1980s, life insurers sold guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) to pension plan sponsors, then backed these contracts with portfolios heavily weighted with higher risk assets such as common stocks and junk bonds. Ultimately this caused considerable loss, and history has repeated itself in many respects in recent years via holdings of equities and mortgage-backed securities. We evaluate the risky asset substitution in the life insurance industry from an historical perspective to determine if organizational form or other factors might be rationale for managerial decisions to engage in asset substitution. We find evidence that stock insurer managers are more likely …

The Timeliness Of Accounting Disclosures In International Security Markets, C. Mitchell Conover, Robert E. Miller, Andrew Szakmary

Finance Faculty Publications

In this study, we examine financial reporting lags, the incidence of late filing, and the relationship between reporting lags, firm performance and the degree of capital market scrutiny. We use a large sample of firms spanning 22 countries over an eleven-year period. A focal point of our analysis is whether the incidence of late filing, and the relations between reporting days and other variables, differ systematically between common and code law countries. Relative to U.S. firms, we report that the time taken and allowed for filing is usually longer in other countries and that the statutory requirement is more frequently …

Debt Financing Does Not Create Circularity Within Pro Forma Analysis, Tom Arnold, Peter C. Eisemann

Finance Faculty Publications

Using debt to finance a firm's external financing need within a pro forma analysis can lead to "circularity" when finding the appropriate value for debt. The circularity incorrectly implies that there is no direct solution for finding the value of debt. In this paper, a direct solution for the value of debt is found; thereby showing that circularity need not exist. Further, the technique is demonstrated to be more accurate than the "additional funds needed" (AFN) approach featured in many texts.

An Examination Of Value Line’S Long-Term Projection, Andrew Szakmary, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.

Duration Measures For Corporate Project Valuation, Tom Arnold, David S. North

Finance Faculty Publications

Sensitivity analysis is a very common exercise performed with the forecasting of project cash flows. In this paper, a duration-type measure is generated that provides a single number for the assessment of project cash flows relative to changes in the discount rate (or adjusted for changes in a particular cash flow model parameter). The calculation is no more difficult than the duration measures that already exist for bonds. Yet, the calculation provides valuable insight that many times is lost when performing sensitivity analysis. Further, at a minimum, the measure provides a gauge for the consequences of mis-specifiying the discount rate …

A Simplified Approach To Understanding The Kalman Filter Technique, Tom Arnold, Mark J. Bertus, Jonathan Godbey

Finance Faculty Publications

The Kalman filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is applied extensively in the field of engineering and recently (relative to engineering) in the field of finance and economics. However, presentations of the technique are somewhat intimidating despite the relative ease of generating the algorithm. This article presents the Kalman filter in a simplified manner and produces an example of an application of the algorithm in Excel. This scaled-down version of the Kalman filter can be introduced in the (advanced) undergraduate classroom as well as the graduate classroom.

A Simple Model Of Interest Rate Term Structure, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Without much technical expertise, a yield curve model is presented that is very dynamic and can be easily programmed in Excel for classroom presentation or for assignments. By using the output of the model to have students find embedded rates within the yield curve, a discussion of how bond traders speculate on interest rates emerges very easily. Further, the model output can also be used for numerous exercises including the pricing of strips or for evaluating the positions of an entire bond portfolio. Within the exercises, the dynamic nature of the model can be exploited to provide sensitivity analysis.

Real Estate Mutual Funds: A Style Analysis, Crystal Lin, Kenneth Yung

Finance Faculty Publications

We find that the characteristics of real estate related securities are different from those of the general common equities. To help investors understand better the products offered by real estate mutual funds, we develop style descriptors that are specifically created for real estate related securities. Among the universe of real estate securities, we find real estate funds tilt toward large stocks and favor growth moderately over value. Growth managers outperform value mangers in this sector by 1.51% to 2.30% per year. However, there is evidence of shifts in the investment style among the funds. Our results help investors in evaluating …

The Effectiveness Of Insider Trading Regulation: International Evidence, Art Durnev, Amrita S. Nain

Finance Faculty Publications

There is a long standing debate in the finance and law literatures about the need for insider trading regulation. Some scholars and practitioners argue that insider trading restrictions should be revoked because insider trading allows private information to be quickly incorporated into stock prices, thereby leading to more informationally efficient stock prices (Carlton and Fischel (1983); Dye (1984)). For example, Milton Friedman, laureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, said: “You want more insider trading, not less. You want to give the people most likely to have knowledge about deficiencies of the company an incentive to make the public …

Implied Binomial Trees In Excel Without Vba, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack, Adam Schwartz

Finance Faculty Publications

We implement a Rubinstein-type (1994) implied binomial tree using an Excel spreadsheet, but without using VBA (Visual Basic Application). We demonstrate both the optimization needed to generate implied ending risk-neutral probabilities from a set of actual option prices and the backwards recursion needed to solve for the entire implied tree. By using only standard Excel spreadsheet functions, and not resorting to VBA, this complicated option pricing technique is now immediately transparent to academics, students, and practitioners alike. The intuition gained from our simple spreadsheet can be applied directly to the estimation of more complicated implied trees using more advanced software. …

The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions.

Adding Depth To The Discussion Of Capital Budgeting Techniques, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

The subject of capital budgeting generally encompasses a significant percentage of any beginning finance course with net present value (NPV) often receiving the most attention. Even after this substantial time allotment, critical assumptions and comparisons of the different techniques (such as payback period, discounted payback period, NPV and IRR) are frequently glossed over due to time constraints. Consequently, the goal of this paper is to present these non-NPV techniques in a manner that allows the beginning finance student to expeditiously see the intuition, inherent assumptions, and any connection with the more popular NPV calculation. A small portion of this paper …

Applying Altman's Z-Score In The Classroom, Tom Arnold, John H. Earl Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

Altman's Z-score is introduced in an Excel framework to produce a quick calculation of the Z-score with actual financial data available through the Internet. The lesson plan developed is easily introduced with topics covering ratio analysis, financial risk, bond rating changes, and bankruptcy. Given the wide use of the Z-score in practice to evaluate credit risk (or bankruptcy risk), the lesson plan produces a skill set that is very marketable.

Getting More Out Of Two Asset Portfolios, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Two-asset portfolio mathematics is a fixture in many introductory finance and investment courses. However, the actual development of the efficient frontier and capital market line are generally left to a heuristic discussion with diagrams. In this article, the mathematics for calculating these attributes of two-asset portfolios are introduced in a framework intended for the undergraduate classroom.

Using Gmm To Flatten The Option Volatility Smile, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

By using an over-identified Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure with careful consideration for data biases existing in the previous literature, parameters are estimated for a stochastic volatility jump diffusion option pricing (SVJ) model. The estimated parameters indicate a statistically significant highly negative infrequent jump process in the underlying security return distribution consistent with market crashes. When comparing to a stochastic volatility (SV) option pricing model, the SVJ is more robust but not always the superior model. The robustness of the models is further gauged by evaluating performance up to a year beyond the estimation data.

Divergent Opinions And Value Stock Performance, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Those who believe that capital markets—that is, markets for stocks and bonds—operate efficiently and asset prices fully reflect all publicly available information are engaged in an ongoing debate about the exact interpretation of the “value premium” with those who reject this view. Value premium refers to the superior returns generated by the purchase of value stocks relative to growth, or glamour, stocks. Rationalists, the group believing in market efficiency, argue that because value stocks are fundamentally riskier than growth stocks, the value premium is compensation for bearing risk. Behavioralists, the group arguing that market asset prices don’t reflect all publicly …

Do Option Markets Substitute For Stock Markets?, Tom Arnold, Gayle Erwin, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.