Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Pmkt: Privacy-Preserving Multi-Party Knowledge Transfer For Financial Market Forecasting, Zhuoran Ma, Jianfeng Ma, Yinbin Miao, Kim-Kwang Raymond Choo, Ximeng Liu, Xiangyu Wang, Tengfei Yang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

While decision-making task is critical in knowledge transfer, particularly from multi-source domains, existing knowledge transfer approaches are not generally designed to be privacy preserving. This has potential legal and financial implications, particularly in sensitive applications such as financial market forecasting. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a Privacy-preserving Multi-party Knowledge Transfer system (PMKT), based on decision trees, for financial market forecasting. Specifically, in PMKT, we leverage a cryptographic-based model sharing technique to securely outsource knowledge reflected in decision trees of multiple parties, and design a secure computation mechanism to facilitate privacy-preserving knowledge transfer. An encrypted user-submitted request from the target …

Three Essays On Financial Economics, Jiangyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Disagreement measures are known to predict cross-sectional stock returns but fail to predict market returns. This paper proposes a partial least squares disagreement index by aggregating information across individual disagreement measures and shows that this index significantly predicts market returns both in- and out-ofsample. Consistent with the theory in Atmaz and Basak (2018), the disagreement index asymmetrically predicts market returns with greater power in high sentiment periods, is positively associated with investor expectations of market returns, predicts market returns through a cash flow channel, and can explain the positive volume-volatility relationship.

Semantic Understanding Of Smart Contracts: Executable Operational Semantics Of Solidity, Jiao Jiao, Shuanglong Kan, Shang Wei Lin, David Sanan, Yang Liu, Jun Sun

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Bitcoin has been a popular research topic recently. Ethereum (ETH), a second generation of cryptocurrency, extends Bitcoin's design by offering a Turing-complete programming language called Solidity to develop smart contracts. Smart contracts allow creditable execution of contracts on EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) without third parties. Developing correct and secure smart contracts is challenging due to the decentralized computation nature of the blockchain. Buggy smart contracts may lead to huge financial loss. Furthermore, smart contracts are very hard, if not impossible, to patch once they are deployed. Thus, there is a recent surge of interest in analyzing and verifying smart contracts. …

Go Big With Economic Push To Fight Covid-19, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Economic policymakers need to focus on taking bold and immediate action in order to tackle the pandemic crisis.

Global Challenges And Regulatory Strategies To Fintech, Aurelio Gurrea-Martinez, Nydia Remolina

Centre for AI & Data Governance (2019-2025)

The rise of new technologies has changed the operation, regulation and supervision of financial markets, bringing new challenges and opportunities for consumers, regulators, and financial institutions. This Article seeks to explore the most common regulatory strategies used by financial regulators around the world to address the challenges associated with the rise of fintech. These strategies include the imposition of bans, regulatory passivity, adoption of new legislation, permission on a case by case basis, and more interactive approaches such as innovation offices, accelerators and sandboxes. This Article argues that the adoption and desirability of each regulatory approach will depend on a …

Green Bonds For Financing Renewable Energy And Energy Efficiency In South-East Asia: A Review Of Policies, Dina Azhgaliyeva, Anant Kapoor, Yang Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Mobilizing private finance for renewable energy and energy efficiency is critical for Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) not only for the reduction of global temperature rise but also for meeting fast-growing energy demand. Two-thirds of green bonds issued in ASEAN were used to finance renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. This paper provides a review of green bond issuance and green bond policies in ASEAN. Issuance of green bonds in top three green bond issuing countries in ASEAN, i.e. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, are reviewed in detail. Green bond policies in ASEAN are effective in promoting green bond issuance. …

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Predictive Insights For Advancing Financial Inclusion: A Human-Centric Ai-Thinking Approach, Meng Leong How, Sin Mei Cheah, Aik Cheow Khor, Yong Jiet Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

According to the World Bank, a key factor to poverty reduction and improving prosperity is financial inclusion. Financial service providers (FSPs) offering financially-inclusive solutions need to understand how to approach the underserved successfully. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) on legacy data can help FSPs to anticipate how prospective customers may respond when they are approached. However, it remains challenging for FSPs who are not well-versed in computer programming to implement AI projects. This paper proffers a no-coding human-centric AI-based approach to simulate the possible dynamics between the financial profiles of prospective customers collected from 45,211 contact encounters and predict …

Understanding Cryptocurrencies, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Campbell R. Harvey, Raphael C. G. Ruele

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Cryptocurrency refers to a type of digital asset that uses distributed ledger, or blockchain, technology to enable a secure transaction. Although the technology is widely misunderstood, many central banks are considering launching their own national cryptocurrency. In contrast to most data in financial economics, detailed data on the history of every transaction in the cryptocurrency complex are freely available. Furthermore, empirically oriented research is only now beginning, presenting an extraordinary research opportunity for academia. We provide some insights into the mechanics of cryptocurrencies, describing summary statistics and focusing on potential future research avenues in financial economics.

Financial Market Implications Of Marketing Actions And The Disclosure Of Marketing Information, Sungkyun Moon

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation contributes to marketing literature by examining the effects of marketing actions and the disclosure of marketing information through the financial market perspective that has high managerial relevance and policy implications. Specifically, the first essay provides the first empirical examination of the effects of the disclosure of advertising spending on investors’ and analysts’ uncertainty. It is responsive to calls by Marketing Science Institute and Marketing Accountability Standard Board to examine the consequences of disclosure of marketing metrics. The second essay examines the effect of advertising spending on firm value and explores firm and market level contingency effects. By doing …

The Impact Of Investor Protection Law On Global Takeovers: Lbo Vs. Non-Lbo Transactions, Xiaping Cao, Douglas Cummings, Jeremy C. Goh, Xiaoming Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the impact of investor protection laws on value creation in LBOs versus non-LBO takeovers. We find that value creation measured by takeover premium is significantly higher in countries with better investor protection. The value effect of investor protection laws is more pronounced for LBOs than non-LBO takeover transactions. Among LBOs, investor protection’s value effect is lower for club deals than others. These results suggest that institutional context and legal environment determine the extent of value creation for takeovers around the world.

Time-Series Momentum: Is It There?, Dashan Huang, Jiangyuan Li, Liyao Wang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Time-series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return, and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows, however, that asset-by-asset time-series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and non-parametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and …

Investing With Cryptocurrencies: A Liquidity Constrained Investment Approach, Simon Trimborn, Mingyang Li, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Cryptocurrencies have left the dark side of the finance universe and become an object of study for asset and portfolio management. Since they have low liquidity compared to traditional assets, one needs to take into account liquidity issues when adding them to a portfolio. We propose a Liquidity Bounded Risk-return Optimization (LIBRO) approach, which is a combination of risk-return portfolio optimization under liquidity constraints. Cryptocurrencies are included in portfolios formed with stocks of the S&P 100, US Bonds, and commodities. We illustrate the importance of the liquidity constraints in an in-sample and out-of-sample study. LIBRO improves the weight optimization in …

When The Bank Comes To You: Branch Network And Customer Omnichannel Banking Behavior, Mi Zhou, Dan Geng, Vibhanshu Abhishek, Beibei Li

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Banks today have been increasingly reducing their physical presence and redirecting customers to digital channels, and yet, the consequences of this strategy are not well studied. This paper investigates the effects of banks' branch network changes (i.e., branch openings and branch closures) on customer omnichannel banking behavior. Using approximately 0.85 million (33 months') anonymized individual-level banking transactions from a large commercial bank in the United States, this paper shows the asymmetric effects of branch openings and branch closures on customer omnichannel banking behavior. In particular, we find that branch openings increase customers' branch transactions; however, the first branch opening leads …

Dbs Impact Measurement Project: Technical Review, Hao Liang, Phuong Tran Bao Nguyen, David Fernandez, Jun Ho Park

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The measurement of ESG and its impact is becoming one of the more important and debated issues in sustainable business practice, with the significant challenges being the subjectivity of scope, criteria, as well as lack of consistency across different rating agencies and data providers

Impact measurement goes beyond ESG measurement. Apart from qualitative and input-based approach, it encapsulates a more outcome/impact-based approach, supported with quantitative methods

Impact measurement and valuation are still at the infant stage, with limited research and guidelines, thus [Impact Institute] II’s approach has significant novelty and is among the first to measure and value impact

II …

A Behavioral Signaling Explanation For Stock Splits: Evidence From China, Chenyu Cui, Frank Weikai Li, Jiaren Pang, Deren Xie

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose a behavioral signaling explanation for the positive announcement effects of stock splits. There are two key behavioral ingredients in our model. First, (retail) investors have misconceptions about stock splits that make them view stock splits as good news. Second, investors are loss-averse and will be particularly disappointed if a splitting firm’s ex-post performance falls short of expectation. In a separating equilibrium, only managers with favorable private information use stock splits to signal. Using a comprehensive sample of stock splits in China over the period of 1998 to 2017, we find supporting evidence: (1) stock splits elicit positive announcement …

Why Commonality Persists?, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Studies on commonality in returns, order flows and liquidity find that the first principal component is closely aligned with the market factor. With the increasing presence of high-frequency trading, commonality in returns, order flows, and liquidity can potentially arise from the commonality in the interpretation of real-time signals. In this paper, we go beyond the first factor and show that the other dominant principal components consistently reflects investors' herding behavior, demonstrating the multi-dimensional aspect of commonality. Instead of relating the asset returns to order flows, we take both as endogenous, and provide empirical evidence showing that returns commonality is driven …

Commentary: Where Does The Talent Pools Of Smes Come From?, T. Mandy Tham

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance Mandy Tham explored how ‘family members’ is defined could affect the size of talent pool for SMEs and family businesses, and suggested some criteria for the selection of family members to be nurtured for the SMEs and family businesses.

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …

Happy Analysts, Ole-Kristian Hope, Congcong Li, An-Ping Lin, Maryjane Rabier

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper is the first to investigate the role of work-life balance in financial analysts’ performance and career advancement. Using a large sample of Glassdoor reviews by financial analysts, we find a significant non-linear relation between work-life balance satisfaction and analyst performance and analyst career advancement. Specifically, when work-life balance satisfaction is relatively low, an increase in work-life balance is associated with better analyst performance and career advancement; however, when perceived work-life balance is already high, a further increase in work-life balance is associated with worse analyst performance and career advancement.

How Smart Is Institutional Trading?, Jingi Ha, Jianfeng Hu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We estimate daily aggregate order flow at the stock level from all institutional investors as well as for hedge funds and the other institutions separately. We achieve this by extrapolating the relation between quarterly institutional ownership in 13F filings, aggregate market order imbalance in TAQ, and a representative group of institutional investors’ transaction data. We find that the estimated institutional order imbalance has positive price impact in the short term, which reverses in the long term. The “smart” order flow from hedge funds generates greater and more persistent price impact than the “dumb” order flow from all the other institutions. …

Superstition, Conspicuous Spending, And Housing Market: Evidence From Singapore, Jia He, Haoming Liu, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song, Wei-Kang Wong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the effect of superstition and conspicuous spending motives on housing demand and price in Singapore. We find that buyers pay less for homes with unlucky addresses and more for homes with lucky addresses. There were fewer housing transactions on inauspicious days of the lunar calendar when people are advised to avoid making major economic decisions. This suggests that superstitious belief still affects economic activities. The demand for lucky addresses is also weaker on these inauspicious days, suggesting that superstitious belief indeed affects the demand for lucky addresses. Moreover, the price premium for a lucky address is significantly higher …

Financial Illiteracy And Pension Contributions: A Field Experiment On Compound Interest In China, Changcheng Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

I conduct a field experiment to study the relationship between peoples’ misunderstanding of compound interest and their pension contributions in rural China. I find that explaining the concept of compound interest to subjects increased pension contributions by roughly 40%. The treatment effect is larger for those who underestimate compound interest than for those who overestimate compound interest. Moreover, financial education enables households to partially correct their misunderstanding of compound interest. I structurally estimate the level of misunderstanding of compound interest and conduct a counterfactual welfare analysis: lifetime utility increases by about 10% if subjects’ misunderstanding of compound interest is eliminated.

Cross-Industry Information Sharing And Analyst Performance, Allen Huang, An-Ping Lin, Amy Zang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This study shows that analyst research benefits from the sharing of information about economically connected industries among colleagues. Measuring the intensity of potential information sharing with the level of economic connection between an analyst’s industry and her colleagues’ industries, we find that it is positively correlated with an analyst’s earnings forecast accuracy, stock recommendation profitability, coverage breadth, and report frequency after controlling for other determinants including broker or analyst fixed effects. We also find that analysts are more likely to issue reports when highly connected colleagues produce information. We show that sharing information with colleagues covering downstream (upstream) industries benefits …

Rethinking The Regulatory Sandbox For Financial Innovation: An Assessment Of The Uk And Singapore, Christopher Chen

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

After the UK launched the first regulatory sandbox regime in 2016, the approach was quickly transplanted to numerous other countries as a means of promoting innovation, improving competition and enhancing financial inclusion. However, it remains unclear whether the approach can effectively achieve the relevant policy goals and thus justify the differential regulatory treatment. This chapter provides a broad overview of the regulatory sandbox regime and examines its potential benefits and problems. The chapter then provides some empirical evidence by analyzing the sandboxes awarded in the UK and Singapore between 2016 and 2018 with the aim of identifying what the businesses …

Financial Vulnerability And The Reproduction Of Disadvantage In Economic Exchanges, Tianyu He, Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Marko Pitesa

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Integrative value generation through negotiated business deals is a fundamental way in which organizations and economic systems attain economic benefits. It is also an important way in which individuals can improve their financial situation. We propose that individuals most in need of improving their financial standing, those in a financially vulnerable situation, are least likely to reap the benefits of integrative value generation. We theorize that financial vulnerability induces a more zero-sum construal of success, or a view that success for one person must come at another person’s success. A more zero-sum construal of success, in turn, hampers negotiators’ ability …

Sell-Side Analysts' Benchmarks, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their recommendations. A buy for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its industry, while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform the market, or some return threshold. We show that these stated benchmarks have implications for the distribution of recommendations, price reactions to recommendations, and the investment value of recommendations. We conclude that, depending on the question, academics may need to account for the benchmarks when studying analysts’ outputs, and investors may find the benchmarks beneficial in interpreting analysts’ advice.

Potential Pilot Problems: Treatment Spillovers In Financial Regulatory Experiments, Ekkehart Boehmer, Charles Jones, Xiaoyan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In analyzing regulatory experiments, a fundamental assumption is that the control group is unaffected. However, in many settings, this assumption may not hold. Generally, the total effect of a regulatory change consists of direct and indirect effects, but the standard difference-in-difference approach measures only direct effects. We apply our methods to the 2007 repeal of the uptick rule by the SEC. The indirect effects are substantial, because unlike the 2005 partial repeal, total repeal enables aggressive portfolio shorting. In particular, we find that short sellers become much more aggressive across the board, and shorting activity increases, even in control stocks …

Optimal Design And Ownership Structures Of Innovative Retail Payment Systems, Zhiling Guo, Dan Ma

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In response to the Fintech trend, an ongoing debate in the banking industry is how to design the new-generation interbank retail payment and settlement system. We propose a two-stage analytical model that takes into account the value-risk tradeoff in the new payment system design, as well as banks’ participation incentives and adoption timing decisions. We find that, as the system base value increases, banks tend to synchronize their investment and adoption decisions. When the system base value is low and banks are heterogeneous, bank association ownership maximizes social welfare. When both the system base value and bank heterogeneity are moderate, …

Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.

Chasing Private Information, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using over 5,000 trades unequivocally based on nonpublic information about firm fundamentals, we find that asymmetric information proxies display abnormal values on days with informed trading. Volatility and volume are abnormally high, whereas illiquidity is low, in equity and option markets. Daily returns reflect the sign of private signals, but bid-ask spreads are lower when informed investors trade. Market makers' learning under event uncertainty and limit orders help explain these findings. The cross-section of information duration indicates that traders select days with high uninformed volume. Evidence from the U.S. SEC Whistleblower Reward Program and the FINRA involvement addresses selection concerns.