Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Frm Financial Risk Meter, Andrija Mihoci, Michael Althof, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

A systemic risk measure is proposed accounting for links and mutual dependencies between financial institutions utilizing tail event information. Financial Risk Meter (FRM) is based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator quantile regression designed to capture tail event co-movements. The FRM focus lies on understanding active set data characteristics and the presentation of interdependencies in a network topology. Two FRM indices are presented, namely, FRM@Americas and FRM@Europe. The FRM indices detect systemic risk at selected areas and identify risk factors. In practice, FRM is applied to the return time series of selected financial institutions …

Teres: Tail Event Risk Expectile Shortfall, Andrija Mihoci, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

We propose a generalized risk measure for expectile-based expected shortfall estimation. The generalization is designed with a mixture of Gaussian and Laplace densities. Our plug-in estimator is derived from an analytic relationship between expectiles and expected shortfall. We investigate the sensitivity and robustness of the expected shortfall to the underlying mixture parameter specification and the risk level. Empirical results from the US, German and UK stock markets and for selected NASDAQ blue chip companies indicate that expected shortfall can be successfully estimated using the proposed method on a monthly, weekly, daily and intra-day basis using a 1-year or 1-day time …

European Floating Strike Lookback Options: Alpha Prediction And Generation Using Unsupervised Learning, Tristan Lim, Aldy Gunawan, Chin Sin Ong

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This research utilized the intrinsic quality of European floating strike lookback call options, alongside selected return and volatility parameters, in a K-means clustering environment, to recommend an alpha generative trading strategy. The result is an elegant easy-to-use alpha strategy based on the option mechanisms which identifies investment assets with high degree of significance. In an upward trending market, the research had identified European floating strike lookback call option as an evaluative criterion and investable asset, which would both allow investors to predict and profit from alpha opportunities. The findings will be useful for (i) buy-side investors seeking alpha generation and/or …

The Future Of Work Now: Ai-Driven Transaction Surveillance At Dbs Bank, Thomas H. Davenport, Steven M. Miller

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

One of the most frequently-used phrases at business events these days is “the future of work.” It’s increasingly clear that artificial intelligence and other new technologies will bring substantial changes in work tasks and business processes. But while these changes are predicted for the future, they’re already present in many organizations for many different jobs. The job and incumbents described below are an example of this phenomenon. Steve Miller of Singapore Management University and I co-authored the story.

Algorithmic Trading And Market Quality: International Evidence, Ekkehart Boehmer, Kingsley Fong, Juan Julie Wu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the effect of algorithmic trading (AT) on market quality between 2001 and 2011 in 42 equity markets around the world. We use an exchange colocation service that increases AT as an exogenous instrument to draw causal inferences about AT on market quality. On average, AT improves liquidity and informational efficiency but increases short-term volatility. Importantly, AT also lowers execution shortfalls for buy-side institutional investors. Our results are surprisingly consistent across markets and thus across a wide range of AT environments. We further document that the beneficial effect of AT is stronger in large stocks than in small stocks.

Will Ceos With Banking Experience Lower Default Risks? Evidence From P2p Lending Platforms In China, Qiang Gong, Chong Liu, Qianni Peng, Luying Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a novel dataset of 121 Chinese P2P lending platforms, we investigate the impact of CEOs' banking experience on default risk. The empirical results indicate that CEOs with prior banking experience manage default risk better. Moreover, CEOs' banking experience has a stronger influence on small platforms and in situations where the platforms' depository banks are city commercial banks. Our results indicate that although fintech provides technology to reduce risks, we cannot ignore the constructive role of professional experience in risk management. Thus, investors and regulators in emerging markets should pay attention to managers' financial qualifications, and especially to CEOs' banking …

Corporate Social Responsibility And Sustainable Finance: A Review Of The Literature, Hao Liang, Luc Renneboog

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) refers to the incorporation of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations into corporate management, financial decision making, and investors’ portfolio decisions. Socially responsible firms are expected to internalize the externalities (e.g. pollution) they create, and are willing to be accountable to shareholders as well as a broader group of stakeholders (employees, customers, suppliers, local communities,…). Over the past two decades, various rating agencies developed firm-level measures of ESG performance, which are widely used in the literature. A problem for past and a challenge for future research is that these ratings show inconsistencies, which depend on the …

Do Short Sellers Use Textual Information? Evidence From Annual Reports, Hung Wan Kot, Frank Weikai Li, Ming Liu, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine short-sellers’ use of textual information in annual reports for shorting activities. We find that more uncertainty and negative words in annual reports are associated with greater abnormal shorting volume. Short selling motivated by textual information negatively predicts stock price reaction around the filing date of 10-K reports. We further provide some evidence that textual information used by short-sellers are related to revisions of analysts’ earnings forecasts, changes in firm fundamentals, and increasing crash risk subsequently. Our results suggest that textual information in annual reports forms an important part of short-sellers’ information advantage.

Research On The Impact Of Venture Capital On The Operating Performance Of Startups, Ziqiang Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Venture capital can not only realize its own capital appreciation, but also promote the development of startups and boost the development of high-tech industries; therefore, it has obvious positive externalities. With the development of venture capital in China, the impact of venture capital on the operating performance of startups gradually attracts widespread attention.

This paper investigates the impact of venture capital on the operating performance of startups and conducts an in-depth discussion on the problem formulation, empirical relationship, cause and effect analysis, and countermeasure suggestions. The main research contents include:

The first part is the introduction, which analyzes the research …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …

Risk Control System Construction Of China’S Equity Crowdfunding Platforms: A Comparative Study On The Differences Between Equity Crowdfunding And Traditional Venture Capital Investment, Wentao Bai

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Equity crowdfunding is a new type of public financing activity realized by Internet technology with small single investments funds, which is different from traditional venture capital. It greatly solves the equity investment problem of middle-class people and the difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups in financing. It is also conducive to the construction of multi-level capital market, and the healthy development of national financial system. Due to the advantages of equity crowdfunding, the global equity crowdfunding market has developed rapidly in recent years. Unfortunately, China's formal legislation on equity crowdfunding has not been introduced yet. Each platform can …

The Effects Of Mifid Ii On Sell-Side Analysts, Buy-Side Analysts, And Firms, Bingxu Fang, Ole-Kristian Hope, Zhongwei Huang, Rucsandra Moldovan

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

This paper provides early but broad empirical evidence on MiFID II, which requires investment firms to unbundle investment research from other costs they charge to clients. Employing difference-in-differences matched-sample research designs with firm fixed effects, we find a decrease in the number of sell-side analysts covering European firms after MiFID II implementation, particularly for firms that are less important to the sell-side. However, research quality improves; specifically, individual analyst forecasts are more accurate and stock recommendations garner greater market reactions. In addition, sell-side analysts seem to cater more to the buy-side after MiFID II by providing industry recommendations along with …

Financial Technology And Inclusion In Asean, David Fernandez, Marc Rakotomalala

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Financial technology (FinTech) has the potential to be a positive, game-changing force for boosting financial inclusion in ASEAN, as mobile money and greater access to basic financial services have the capacity to improve the economic well-being of households. Indeed, technology has been shown to drive broader increases in economic growth, which itself interacts positively with financial inclusion. In a more direct way, new, specific fintech developments globally and in ASEAN itself can be beneficial for financial inclusion. In this paper, we look at financial inclusion and technology, and how cooperative efforts between ASEAN policymakers, the private sector, and their broader …

What Drives The Declining Wealth Effect Of Subsequent Share Repurchase Announcements?, David K. Ding, Hardjo Koerniadi, Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Recent academic studies document that open market share repurchase announcements in the United States generate significantly lower returns than those reported in earlier studies. We find that the lower announcement return is associated with an increasing number of subsequent announcements in the more recent periods. Although the announcement period return from the initial announcement is positive, subsequent announcement returns are significantly decreasing. Further, we find that the decreasing returns of subsequent announcements are attributed to firms with negative past repurchase announcement returns. Our multivariate regression test results are consistent with the notion that the decreasing subsequent repurchase announcement returns are …

Towards A Data-Driven Financial System: The Impact Of Covid-19, Nydia Remolina

Centre for AI & Data Governance (2019-2025)

The COVID-19 outbreak has a growing impact on the global economy and the financial sector, which plays a critical role in mitigating the unprecedented macroeconomic and financial shock caused by the pandemic. Given the unprecedented nature of the current crisis, financial regulators and supervisors, central banks, along with governments and legislatures face challenges to maintain financial stability, preserve the well-functioning core markets, and ensure the flow of credit to the real economy. Even though the COVID-19 has slowed down our daily lives and stopped the operation of many industries, it did not have the same effect in the data-driven finance …

Bermudan Option In Singapore Savings Bonds, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) is a unique investment program offered by the Singapore government whereby retail investors can earn risk-free tax-free step-up interest closely matched to Treasury bond rates for up to 10 years and can redeem on any business day prior to maturity without any early redemption penalty. This study analyses the unique design of the SSB and provides a valuation of the Bermudan option for early redemption that is embedded in the SSB. The Black-Derman-Toy model is used to build the interest rate tree, and an iterative method is employed to avoid arbitrary specification of the pre-determined …

In The Name Of Covid-19: Is The Ecb Fuelling The Climate Crisis?, Theodor Florian Cojoianu, E. Collins, Andrea G. F. Hoepner, D. Magill, T. O'Neill, F. I. Schneider

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

The current global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectory indicates that the world is likely to experience catastrophic consequences due to climate change, unless swift action is taken towards funding green solutions and the defunding of fossil fuel activities (IPCC 2018). While there is an extensive academic literature on the links between environmental and fiscal policies and the low-carbon energy transition (Aghion et al. 2016; Ambec et al. 2013; Cojoianu et al. 2020), as well as on optimal environmental policies in times of economic downturns (van den Bijgaart and Smulders 2018), we know less about what the role of central banks …

Crowdfunding Platforms: Ecosystem And Evolution, Yee Heng Tan, Srinivas K. Reddy

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Crowdfunding is the practice of seeking support from a large number of backers, each funding a small amount, in order to reach a specific funding goal. This monograph examines: (1) the field of crowdfunding, (2) how it has evolved, (3) the impact crowdfunding has on the fields of innovation, marketing and finance and (4) the factors that can affect crowdfunding outcomes. We view crowdfunding as complementary and transformative, increasing the efficiency of several existing processes such as idea generation and testing, fund raising and collection. We combine practitioner perspectives and research findings to provide insights on this subject. We explore …

Security Analysts And Capital Market Anomalies, Li Guo, Frank Weikai Li, K.C. John Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine whether analysts use information in well-known stock return anomalies when making recommendations. We find results contrary to the common view that analysts are sophisticated information intermediaries who help improve market efficiency. Specifically, when analysts make more favorable recommendations to stocks classified as overvalued, these stocks tend to have particularly large negative abnormal returns ex post. Moreover, analysts whose recommendations are more aligned with anomaly signals are more skilled and elicit greater recommendation announcement returns. Our results suggest that analysts' biased recommendations could be a source of market frictions that impede the efficient correction of mispricing.

Stock Market Information And Security Prices, Haoyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1: Analyst report content and stock market anomalies A series of recent papers document that security analyst recommendations tend to contradict stock-mispricing signals. This seems at odds with the large prior literature on the investment value of analyst recommendations. What justifications do analysts make when they write reports on mispriced stocks? I use the latest techniques in machine learning and textual analysis to categorize the qualitative information in a large sample of analyst reports. I find that report content can be intuitively classified into five categories or topics: 1) Growth, 2) Earnings, 3) New developments, 4) Management transactions, and …

Corporate Governance: Of Misses, Awareness And Improvements, Havovi Heerjee Joshi

Asian Management Insights

Have a more robust and effective corporate governance framework that includes a focus on environmental sustainability and social impact.

China's Anti‐Corruption Campaign And Financial Reporting Quality, Ole-Kristian Hope, Heng Yue, Qinlin Zhong

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine the impact of China’s anti-corruption campaign on firm-level financial reporting quality (FRQ). As an important component of the anti-corruption campaign, in October 2013, “Rule 18” was issued to prohibit party and government officials from serving as directors for publicly listed firms. The regulation led to a large number of official directors resigning from their roles as directors involuntarily. As such, Rule 18 has effectively weakened, if not fullydiscontinued, the political connections of the firms that previously hired officials as directors. Our empirical analyses employ a difference-in-differences research design with firm fixed effects and PSM to examine the pre- …

Stochastic Capacity Management In The Presence Of Production Resource Disruption, Boya Yang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies the capacity investment decision of a manufacturing firm facing demand uncertainty in the presence of shortage possibility in production resources, as often ignored in the literature. These production resources can be physical resources (component / raw material) or financial resources (working capital / budget). The shortage in these resources can be caused by a variety of supply chain disruptions; examples include global disruptions like COVID-19 and financial crisis in 2008 and local disruptions like shortage of components/workforce. The dissertation analyses two important issues related to capacity management: (i) the effect of production resource disruption on the capacity …

Fomc Playbook: The Only New Game In Town?, Thomas Lam

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while taking more aggressive actions, seems to have stuck more or less to the standard playbook of responding to “unusual and exigent circumstances”. This essentially calls for slashing conventional policy rates to their effective lower bound, accompanied by forward guidance, embarking on asset purchases, rolling out emergency liquidity facilities and experimenting with lending programmes. But policymakers, with the required US Treasury backstop, have also introduced more creative programmes to encourage credit extension and reached into different market segments.

Fin Vs. Tech: Are Trust And Knowledge Creation Key Ingredients In Fintech Start-Up Emergence And Financing?, Theodor Florian Cojoianu, Gordon L. Clark, Andreas G. F. Hoepner, Vladimir. Pažitka, Dariusz. Wójcik

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

We investigate how the emergence of fintech start-ups and their financing is shaped by regional knowledge creation and lack of trust in financial services incumbents across 21 OECD countries, 226 regions and over the 2007–2014 period. We find that knowledge generated in the IT sector is much more salient for fostering new fintech start-ups than knowledge generated in the financial services sector. Additionally, the importance of new knowledge created in the financial services sector (IT sector) increases (decreases) as fintech start-ups grow and seek financing. When the level of trust in financial services incumbents falls within a region, this is …

The Global Sustainability Footprint Of Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hao Liang, Luc Renneboog

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

With the emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) around the world managing equity of over $8 trillion, their impact on the corporate landscape and social welfare is being scrutinized. This study investigates whether and how SWFs incorporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations in their investment decisions in publicly listed corporations, as well as the subsequent evolution of target firms' ESG performance. We find that SWF funds do consider the level of past ESG performance as well as recent ESG score improvement when taking ownership stakes in listed companies. These results are driven by the SWF funds that do have …

Risk Premium Spillovers Among Stock Markets: Evidence From Higher-Order Moments, Marinela Adriana Finta, Sofiane Aboura

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the volatility and skewness risk premium spillovers among the U.S., U.K., German, and Japanese stock markets. We define risk premia as the difference between risk-neutral and realized moments. Our findings highlight that during periods of stress, cross-market and cross-moment spillovers increase and that these increases are mirrored by a decrease in within-market effects. We document strong bidirectional spillovers between volatility and skewness risk premia and emphasize the prominent role played by the volatility risk premium. Finally, we show that several announcements drive the time-varying risk premium spillovers.

Gender And Beauty In The Financial Analyst Profession: Evidence From The United States And China, Congcong Li, An-Ping Lin, Hai Lu, Kevin Veenstra

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We examine how gender and beauty affect the likelihood of being voted as an All-Star in the financial analyst profession in both the United States and China. We find that female analysts are more likely to be voted as All-Star analysts in the United States, but good-looking female U.S. analysts are less likely to be voted as All-Stars. The conclusion is the opposite for Chinese analysts. We find that female analysts in China are less likely to be voted as All-Stars, but the likelihood increases with their facial attractiveness. These findings implicate a beauty penalty for female analysts in the …

Are Corporate Spin-Offs Prone To Insider Trading?, Patrick Augustin, Menachem Brenner, Jianfeng Hu, Marti Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Despite abundant empirical evidence of informed trading ahead of major corporate events, no such evidence has been reported in the case of corporate spinoff (SP) announcements. This is surprising, as SP announcements are unexpected, and are also associated with a positive price jump in the parent company’s stock. Using a sample of 280 US announcement events from 1996 to 2013, we document significant pre-announcement informed trading activity in options for about 9 to 16% of events in our sample. In contrast, we find statistically insignificant evidence of informed trading in stocks, suggesting that informed traders employ leverage through options. In …

Do Firms Adapt To Climate Change? Evidence From Establishment-Level Data, Frank Weikai Li, Yupeng Lin, Zuben Jin, Zilong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines firms’ adaptation to long-term changes in climatic conditions. Using detailed information of establishments owned by U.S. public firms from 1990 to 2012, we show that higher abnormal temperatures over the previous five years in a county lead to a significant reduction in local employment and the number of establishments. Further tests suggest that the decline in employment and establishments is largely due to a decline in local consumer demand rather than lower labor productivity. We also find that firms more likely take adaptive actions when their managers are more likely to believe in, or are concerned about, …