Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Sampling Concepts, Paul Boyd, Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

The usefulness of any research is dependent upon how well the group studied represents the group about which decisions are to be made or conclusions drawn. That is, it depends upon how well the sample reflects relevant characteristics of the population. When it is possible to study every member of that group there is no problem, for on these occasions we can easily calculate the exact attribute (parameter) of interest for our population.

For example, if we were interested in determining the average number of gallons of gasoline sold to customers at our service station yesterday, we …

Proposal For A Centralized And Integrated Registry For Security Interests In Intellectual Property, William J. Murphy

Law Faculty Scholarship

As the world economy enters the twenty-first century, job and wealth creation is increasingly based on innovation and creativity that, in turn, can give rise to important intellectual property rights. For many companies and individuals these intellectual property rights may represent their most valuable assets, or in some cases, their only valuable assets. As a result, intellectual property rights increasingly play a critical the role in financing.

Unlocking the job and wealth creating potential of intellectual property assets requires putting these assets into use, and that often requires a capital investment. Unfortunately, many entrepreneurs and innovators lack the capital necessary …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 10, 2002, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Communicating Effectively with Words, Numbers, and Pictures: Drawing on Experience • Karolina Duklan and Michael A. Martin

Unearned Premiums and Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses in Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance • Joseph Cheng

Can Utility Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning? • Zaki Khorasanee

Dynamic Funding and Investment Strategy for Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria • Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, and Chang- Ye Tu

Model Risk and Surplus Management Under a Stochastic Interest Rate Process •Jennifer L. Wang and Rachel J. Huang

Some Comments on the Pricing of an Exotic Excess of …

Improving Mortality: A Rule Of Thumb And Regulatory Tool, John H. Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We develop a simple exact formula for determining cohort life expectancies under constant continuous uniform improvement in mortality using only a cross-sectional (period) Gompertz life table for the lives concerned and a simple approximation applicable to all life tables. The present values of annuities for such lives can be determined simply and accurately across the whole age span.

Modeling Size-Of-Loss Distributions For Exact Data In Winbugs, David P.M. Scollnik

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses how the statistical software WinBUGS can be used to implement a Bayesian analysis of several popular severity models applied to exact size-of-Ioss data. The particular models targeted are the gamma, inverse gamma, loggamma, lognormal, (two-parameter) Pareto, inverse (two-parameter) Pareto, Weibull, and inverse Weibull distributions. It is possible to implement additional size-of-Ioss models (including those for truncated data) using methods analogous to those described herein.

Model Risks And Surplus Management Under A Stochastic Interest Rate Process, Jennifer L. Wang, Rachel J. Huang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses simulations to explore the effects of incorrectly identifying the underlying interest rate process on assets, liabilities, and surplus levels. We show that mismodeling the interest rate (called model risk) could not only lead to a misstatement of the company's surplus, but could also cause a mismatch between the company's assets and liabilities. Our simulations demonstrate that three aspects of interest rates affect model risk: (i) volatility, (ii) level of long-term interest rate, and (iii) the speed at which the drift rate adjusts. We conclude that asset-liability managers should not ignore the impact of the model risks, regardless …

Unearned Premiums And Deferred Policy Acquisition Expenses In Automobile Extended Warranty Insurance, Joseph Cheng

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A prorata formula is commonly used to calculate unearned premium reserves in property-casualty insurance. I believe, however, that an exposure-adjusted formula is more appropriate in automobile extended warranties. This paper describes the exposure-adjusted approach to calculate the unearned premium reserves of an automobile extended warranty insurance program, to test the adequacy of the calculated reserves, and to determine the allowable deferred policy acquisition expenses from an insurance company's perspective.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice Volume 10 (2002) -- Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

Can Utility-Maximization Models Assist With Retirement Planning?, Zaki Khorasanee

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Utility-maximization models for optimizing portfolio choices can be subdivided into two classes: those based on maximizing the expected utility of lifetime consumption and those based on maximizing the expected utility of retirement wealth. It is argued that the first type of model, which optimizes both saving and investment decisions, is difficult to apply in practice because of inadequate (or unreliable) information about individual preferences. Although the second type of model only optimizes investment decisions, it is of greater practical value because fewer data on individual preferences are required. The second type of model is used to derive formulae for the …

Some Comments On The Pricing Of An Exotic Excess Of Loss Treaty, Jean-Francois Walhin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper uses a multivariate analog of Panjer's algorithm to develop a method for pricing a complex excess of loss treaty. The treaty is such that some layers inure to the benefit of other layers. The structure of this treaty is discussed. Numerical examples are provided.

Communicating Effectively With Words, Numbers, And Pictures: Drawing On Experience, Karolina Duklan, Michael A. Martin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

In this paper, we discuss techniques for developing effective communication skills, focusing in particular on technical writing, the use of graphics, and presentation. The key principles of effective communication that we propose to actuaries are as follows:

• Identify your audience and consider their needs and abilities;

• Focus on substantive content;

• Choose appropriate communication tools;

• Use language that is simple, concrete, and familiar;

• Integrate text, numbers, and graphics;

• Respond to information complexity creatively.

We focus in particular on the use of graphics as a communications tool as they are an efficient and potentially highly effective …

Further Remarks On Risk Sources Measuring: The Case Of A Life Annuity Portfolio, Mariarosaria Coppola, Emilia Di Lorenzo, Marilena Sibillo

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper considers a model that allows the actuary to measure the riskiness connected to the randomness of projected mortality tables in evaluating a portfolio of life annuities, obtaining a measure to reflect the risk associated with the randomness of the projection. The coherence of the risk parameters with the specific nature of the considered risk sources is also discussed. Numerical examples illustrate the results, showing the importance of the risk components in terms of the number of policies and comparing measure tools obtained by means of two procedures.

A Note On The Parallelogram Method For Computing The On-Level Premium, David P.M. Scollnik, Wai Man Sara Lau

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper discusses the differences appearing in the descriptions of the parallelogram method for the determination of earned premium at current rate levels given by McClenahan (1996) and Brown and Gottlieb (2001). It observes that the former is consistent with the method of extending exposures while the latter is not. An illustration is provided. This paper also discusses two other approaches to the determination of the earned premium.

Dynamic Funding And Investment Strategy For Defined Benefit Pension Schemes: A Model Incorporating Asset-Liability Matching Criteria, Shih-Chieh Chang, Cheng-Hsien Tsai, Chia-Jung Tien, Chang-Ye Tu

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper studies the dynamic funding policy and investment strategy for defined benefit pension plans using one of the most comprehensive dynamic pension models to date. The model includes three investable assets: one risk free and two risky. The optimal plan decisions are formulated as a stochastic control problem that is solved using dynamic programming. The objective function uses performance measures to take into account the stability and solvency of the plan. The model is then applied to a Taiwanese pension.

Cash Flow Statement : An Empirical Study Of Voluntary Disclosure Practices Of Malaysian Companies, K. Ranchethamalar K.

Student Works (2000-2009)

Cash flow is a critical business solvency measure. The mandatory disclosures on cash flow statements do not provide all the necessary information to evaluate an entity's performance, liquidity and solvency. No prior studies so far, have thoroughly discussed the merits of providing additional information and relating it to firm specific variables. This study has two purposes. The first purpose is to provide empirical evidence on direct and indirect method of presenting operating cash flows. The second part of the study provides empirical evidence on the voluntary disclosure practices of Malaysian companies as encouraged by MASS 5 and relating it to …

Risk-Based Audit Approach In The Internal Audit Department Of A Financial Institution : A Qualitative Study, Jans Mei Lin Lim

Student Works (2000-2009)

Traditionally, the internal auditing approach has been very procedures or process driven. Lately, however, there is greater emphasis on the risk-driven approach in an attempt to achieve greater effectiveness and efficiency in internal auditing. This new approach which is risk-driven is called Risk Based Auditing. A risk­based audit focuses on the organization's business risks, that is, risks which can affect a company's profitability and which hold the key to its survival. To analyze this risk, the internal auditor has to look into the working of the company to understand how it operates, and the short and long term business risks …

Adr Risk Characteristics And Measurement, Tom Arnold, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

While a healthy empirical literature exists on international diversification and its benefits, surprisingly few studies have examined the risk characteristics and efficacy of asset pricing models for one avenue of international diversification – investments in American Depository Receipts (ADRs). Originating in approximately 1927, ADRs provide an opportunity for investors to indirectly purchase shares of foreign firms. ADRs represent a claim to a given number of shares of a foreign firm held by a U.S. financial institution (e.g., Bank of New York). With the increasingly significant presence of ADR trading in the American stock markets – increasing six-fold between 1990 and …

Persistence Of Profits : Intra-And Inter-Sector Comparisons, Liew Toh Peng

Student Works (2000-2009)

The dynamics of the competition in a market economy is expected to function continuously to eliminate the profit differentials among different firms or industries in the· long run. The persistence of profit rates differentials was estimated with an autoregressive model for a sample of firms listed in 9 sectors of the Main Board of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE). We applied the methodology proposed by lm et al. ( I 997) to test for the persistence of profits in a panel data structure. A few specifications were considered and the autoregressive model without a lagged difference term was the best …

What Is Eva?, Joel Stern

IIMB Management Review

There is no way to measure your performance contemporaneously, period by period. The way people try to incentivize net present value is by using stock options or restricted shares or something like that. But we have taken net present value, which is what the accountants call a stock concept, and converted it into a flow concept, one that can be measured contemporaneously year-by-year. We have put the incentives and the tools in place, to reinforce that. So on acquisitions, for example, you will not be the one to drop out of the bidding contest. I will show you how we …

Stern Measures: In Conversation With Joel Stern, S Venkatesh

IIMB Management Review

The financial evaluation tool that his company devised and grew. Elaborating on how it differs from the accountants’ measure of value and is an accurate measure of shareholder value, Stern claimed that EVA was emerging as a strong consulting practice in India, thanks to the sharpness of the quantitative side of the Indian brain. Defending EVA against Prof Zimmerman’s criticism, Stern strongly positioned EVA as a tool for evaluation, incentivization, and strategic decision making

Eva: Cutting To Fit, S Venkatesh

IIMB Management Review

No abstract provided.

Top 10 Audit Deficiencies, Mark S. Beasley, Joseph V. Carcello, Dana R. Hermanson

Faculty Articles

The article focuses on financial statement fraud based on cases wherein the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sanctioned auditors for their association with fraudulent financial statements. All of the cases involved public companies, most of which engaged ill fraudulent financial reporting. Only a few engaged in misappropriation of assets or defalcation. The most common problem, alleged in 90% of the cases, was the auditor's failure to gather sufficient evidence. In some instances, this failure was pervasive throughout the engagement while in other instances the allegations were more specific. For example, many of the cases involved inadequate evidence in the areas …

Fitting Loss Distributions In The Presence Of Rating Variables, Farrokh Guiahi

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper focuses on issues and methodologies for fitting alternative statistical models-parametric probability distributions-to samples of insurance loss data. The interactions of loss distributions, deductibles, policy limits, and rating variables in the context of fitting distributions to losses are discussed. Fitted loss distributions serve an important function in pricing insurance products. The methodology developed in this paper is applied to a sample of insurance loss data that has the lognormal as the underlying loss distribution.

Linear Empirical Bayes Estimation Of Survival Probabilities With Partial Data, Mostafa Mashayekhi

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

In this paper we consider linear empirical Bayes estimation of survival probabilities with partial data from right-censored and possibly left-truncated observations. Such data are produced by studies in which the exact times of death are not recorded and the length of time that each subject may be under observation cannot exceed one unit of time. We obtain asymptotically optimal linear empirical Bayes estimators, with respect to the squared error loss function, under the assumption that the probability of death under observation in a unit time interval is proportional to the length of observation. This assumption is sometimes implied by Balducci's …

A Sensitivity Analysis Of The Premiums For A Permanent Health Insurance (Phi) Model, Ben D. Rickayzen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper presents an analysis of the parameters used in a multi-state model for permanent health insurance (PHI). The model is a simplification of that used in the United Kingdom. To avoid using duration dependent probabilities, the model splits the sick state into several sub-states to act as a proxy for duration spent in a particular state. This enables a Markov approach to be adopted. Lapses are incorporated within the model, and the net premium for a particular policy is tested for sensitivity to the various parameters used, including their interaction with the lapse rate. One of our conclusions is …

Controlling The Solvency Interaction Among A Group Of Insurance Companies, Alexandros Zimbidis, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Pooling of risks is an efficient risk management technique used by large employee benefit schemes of multinational companies to self-insure their retirement and other benefit obligations. This technique forms a basis for formulating a general control theoretic model for the interaction between insurance companies within a pooling network. The objective of these insurance companies is to avoid insolvency yet maintain stable premium and surplus processes. A general control system of equations that is used as a model for the interaction of m insurance companies within the network is first analyzed. An analytic solution is provided. Questions concerning the stability and …

Exponential Bonus-Malus Systems Integrating A Priori Risk Classification, Llufs Bermudez, Michel Denuit, Jan Dhaene

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper examines an integrated ratemaking scheme including a priori risk classification and a posteriori experience rating. In order to avoid the high penalties implied by the quadratic loss function, the symmetry between the overcharges and the undercharges is broken by introducing parametric loss functions of exponential type.

Premium Earning Patterns For Multi-Year Policies With Aggregate Deductibles, Thomas Struppeck

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

MUlti-year policies with large aggregate deductibles or multiple triggers raise some interesting issues about the correct amount of unearned premium reserve that a company should carry. Examples in this paper illustrate some of the difficulties that arise when trying to establish such reserves. The basic approach taken here is that the pure premium portion of the unearned premium reserve should always be adequate to cover the remaining risk. This approach, however, can lead to some unusual and controversial earning patterns; there are even situations where a negative premium is earned. In addition, the earning pattern for a particular loss scenario …

Analyzing Management Fees Of Pension Funds: A Case Study Of Mexico, Tapen Sinha

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Though the rates of return for public pension funds have been high over the past two decades, one critical aspect of the financing of this type of fund is often overlooked: high management fees. As a result, the rates of return for workers who have invested in these funds have not necessarily been high. Management fees charged on pension funds in Mexico result in a leakage of funds in the order of 20-30% of the fund. That is, the amount at retirement would have been 20-30% higher had there been no fees. A model is developed that includes all the …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 9 (2001), Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

(The complete issue, including) ARTICLES

Analyzing Management Fees of Pension Funds: A Case Study of Mexico • Tapen Sinha 5

Premium Earning Patterns for Multi-Year Policies with Aggregate Deductibles • Thomas Struppeck 45

Exponential Bonus-Malus Systems Integrating A Priori Risk Classification • Lluis Benmidez, Michel Denuit, and Jan Dhaene 67

Fitting Loss Distributions in the Presence of Rating Variables • Farrokh Guiahi 97

Linear Empirical Bayes Estimation of Survival Probabilities with Partial Data • Mostafa Mashayekhi 131

Controlling the Solvency Interaction Among a Group of Insurance Companies • Alexandros Zimbidis and Steven Haberman 151

A Sensitivity Analysis of the Premiums …