Business Analytics Commons^™

Ai-Driven Predictive Analysis Of Airline Profitability Under Macroeconomic And Sustainable Aviation Fuels, Shivika Singh

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

This study presents an AI-enhanced predictive model to assess airline profitability under the combined influence of macroeconomic trends and the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). By including economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and fuel price volatility with airline operational data, including ticket prices and fuel costs, the model simulates profitability across multiple carriers. Scenario-based analyses, encompassing optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic projections, illustrate different financial sensitivities between low-cost and legacy airlines.

Predicting Passenger Demand On National Flights Departing From Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (Atl) In 2024, Brooklyn Gossett, Ana Yu Wen

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

The aviation industry relies heavily on accurate demand forecasting to guide critical decisions regarding route planning, capacity management, and pricing strategy. Misjudging passenger demand can result in significant revenue loss and operational inefficiency, making it essential for airlines and analysts to identify the key drivers of flight patronage. This study investigates the factors that most significantly predict the number of passengers on domestic flights departing from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) during the 2024 calendar year. Using passenger and route data sourced from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), a multiple regression analysis …

What We Know About Accounting Ratios: Methodological Considerations, Wojciech Kuryłek, Oskar Kowalewski

Studia i Materiały Wydział Zarządzania Uniwersytet Warszawski

Purpose: This paper provides a comprehensive literature review of the methodological aspects of financial ratio analysis, consolidating dispersed knowledge on the computation, statistical properties, and appropriate usage of accounting ratios.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopts a narrative literature review methodology, systematically surveying published research on financial ratio distributions, normality testing, data transformations, outlier handling, the proportionality assumption, dimensionality reduction techniques, compositional data analysis, and recommended ratio sets for corporate financial research.

Findings: Financial ratios predominantly deviate from normal distributions, exhibiting skewness, excess kurtosis, and sensitivity to outliers. Transformation techniques such as logarithmic, square root, and Box‑Cox methods yield mixed results in …

Ai For Regression Analysis And More, Eli Snir

Generative AI Teaching Activities

Students use Copilot and NotebookLM to create a dataset and develop statistical analyses including regression.

Holistic Strategies For Optimizing Municipal It Operations And Cost Efficiency, Joseph Yazdanpanahi

Certified Public Manager® Applied Research

Municipalities work to deliver secure and impactful IT (information technology) services while often working within tight budget constraints. To address this problem, this article offers an experience-based and comprehensive framework to optimize municipal IT operations. It emphasizes leveraging automation, streamlining hardware and software management, and forging strategic partnerships to drive cost savings and efficiency gains. Designed to equip municipal IT leaders with practical tools and insights, this article aims to help modernize IT processes.

Decoding Stock Market Movements: The Role Of Unemployment And Volatility, Bipllab Roy, Suparna Bhattacharjee

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This study investigates how unemployment and market volatility interact with stock prices in the Indian context, framing the stock–labour–volatility nexus as a complex adaptive system (CAS) rather than a set of linear, time-invariant relationships. Using verified secondary data on unemployment, India VIX, and NSE stock indices for 2013–2023, we first apply simple and multiple regression as a descriptive baseline. Results show a strong negative association between unemployment and stock prices (R ≈ 0.824, R² ≈ 0.68, p < 0.05), consistent with Keynesian demand-side channels, while the linear VIX–stock relationship is weak and statistically insignificant (R² ≈ 0.07, p > 0.05), consistent with the expectation that volatility operates through non-linear, regime-dependent mechanisms not captured by OLS.

Importantly, we document and transparently disclose critical …

Evaluating Optimal Capacity And Investment Strategies For Renewable Energy Projects: A Combined Technical And Financial Approach, Helen Josephine, Indhumathi Shanmugasundaram, Sharad Gupta, Manjari Sharma

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

The global shift toward clean energy is accelerating, and by 2050 renewable sources are expected to supply more than 85% of the world’s electricity. This transition, however, introduces new layers of complexity. Wind and solar energy behave as interconnected subsystems whose output fluctuates with weather, season, and geography. Their interaction with fixed hourly demand, capital-intensive investments, and financing structures creates a multi-dimensional system in which small changes can trigger significant operational and economic consequences.  This study presents a simulation-driven framework designed to understand and optimize this complex behaviour. The framework models hourly wind and solar generation alongside projected demand to …

The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper examines whether NBA draft decisions can be better explained by incorporating non-geometric time discounting into a model of general manager decision making. Using a dataset of 285 NBA draft prospects over a 12-year period, the impact of college statistics on Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is determined, and these impact values are then used to create a “predicted” VORP for the first 4 seasons of each player’s career: a projection of what a general manager might think of a prospect’s future value given their college statistics. Following this, geometric and hyperbolic time discounting models are applied to estimate …

A Forecasting Framework For Distribution Center Capacity Utilization: An Applied Industry Study, Jordan J. Shortt

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

This project develops and evaluates a predictive modeling framework for forecasting distribution center capacity utilization at Company Y, with monthly forecast horizons up to one year. Motivated by the operational challenges of seasonal demand volatility, promotional cycles, and the absence of a formally defined capacity metric, the study first constructs a historical capacity utilization measure from raw warehouse management system data — reconciling item volumes, location dimensions, and utilization factors across all DCs — which serves as the target variable for all modeling work. Four models are developed and evaluated against a naïve seasonal baseline: SARIMA, LightGBM, LSTM, and a …

Developing Tracking Compliance Standards For Inbound Freight: A Data-Driven Industry Application At O’Reilly Automotive, Jackson Endacott

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

Visibility of inbound freight is critical for managing operational efficiency, yet many organizations lack standardized compliance metrics for third-party carriers to uphold, preventing them from utilizing tracking data to make data-driven decisions. During a summer internship with the Transportation Department at O’Reilly Automotive, data inconsistencies were addressed in the Transportation Management System (TMS), and that data was utilized to create tracking compliance standards for third-party carriers. Data populated from various sources within O’Reilly’s TMS was cleaned, validated, and utilized to create a Tracking Scorecard that evaluates message transmission rates, timeliness, and errors. This tool provides actionable insights to improve tracking …

Escaping The Promotion Trap: A Machine Learning Framework For Brand Equity Preservation In Beverage Cpg, Lucas P. Jones

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

When companies acquire beverage brands, they typically value them based on total sales revenue. This traditional approach treats all sales equally over time, whether they are driven by genuine consumer demand or temporary discounts. This is important because while promotions can boost short-term sales, they tend to erode brand value over long periods of time. The measurement problem extends to acquisitions, where buyers lack the tools to distinguish real consumer demand from artificial promotional inflation.

This thesis develops a framework to separate genuine baseline demand from promotional dependence using Nielsen scanner data covering 189 beverage brands across 188,304 weekly observations …

Ownership Duration In The U.S. Business Jet Market, Yuchen Hu

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

This study analyzes ownership duration in the U.S. business jet market using FAA registry data as of February 16, 2026 (N=12,359). The analysis reveals a structured distribution with a mean of 5.86 years and a median of 5.00 years. Crucially, retention varies by acquisition status: new aircraft owners exhibit an average hold of 7.36 years, whereas pre-owned aircraft holders show a significantly higher turnover of 5.11 years, with most resales occurring within a 3–7-year window. These findings suggest that ownership behavior is driven by structured asset management and lifecycle planning, providing a predictive framework for identifying aircraft replacement and trade-in …

Developing Strategies For Pce Outreach, Mariah Blankenbaker, Gordon Carlson, Daniel Adesoji, Levi Eck

SACAD: Scholarly Activities

In collaboration with Professional and Continuing Education (PCE), we produced projects to automate their internal tasks, as well as to promote their services. By taking advantage of software techniques, we bridged live-action footage with 2D and 3D computer visuals for promotional material. In addition, we researched the capabilities of creating a custom Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) and trained it to analyze and interact with thousands of industry datapoints.

A Dynamic Systems Framework For Customer Lifecycle Management: From Latent State Discovery To Robust Control Policy, Ali Nasirzonouzi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Traditional marketing often relies on static strategies that fail to capture dynamic customer behavior. This paper introduces an integrated framework to model and control the customer lifecycle, bridging the gap between empirical data and computational simulation. Using the Customer Personality Analysis dataset, we implemented a five-stage methodology. We first identified three distinct customer segments (At-Risk, Standard, High-Value) using Gaussian Mixture Models. To address the lack of longitudinal data, we calibrated a normative transition model based on customer inertia principles. Our analysis revealed that marketing effectiveness is highly state-dependent; notably, At-Risk customers exhibited a 33.5% lift when targeted with catalogs. Leveraging …

Digital Transformation And Market Microstructure: Analyzing The Impact Of Algorithmic Trading On National Stock Exchange Of India Price Discovery Mechanisms Through Complex Systems Theory., Mukesh Bhaskar Ahirrao, Harshal Anil Salunkhe, Vishal Sunil Rana

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Abstract

This research examines the evolution of market microstructure at the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) from 2020 to 2024, a period characterized by substantial growth in algorithmic trading from 35% to 44% of total trading volume. Using market microstructure data and analytical techniques grounded in complex systems perspectives, the study documents temporal patterns in price discovery, liquidity, volatility, and market efficiency associated with this digital transformation.

The analysis reveals several notable changes in market characteristics. Transaction costs improved significantly, with bid-ask spreads declining by 23.4% and market depth increasing by 18.1%. Price adjustment half-life decreased by 50%, indicating …

Data Tracking And Analytics Within Inventory Management: Coffee Shop And Retail Store Optimization, Mateo J. Moyon

Senior Theses

This thesis examines the application of inventory management theory in the small and medium-sized business context, with a specific focus on the food and beverage industry. Drawing on the foundational academic literature spanning from Harris’s EOQ formula in 1913 through stochastic inventory theory, ABC analysis, and just-in-time strategy, this paper establishes the mathematical and operational bases for modern inventory management practice. Although there are proven value to these frameworks, research demonstrates that small to medium sized businesses adopt inventory management systems at lower rates citing cost and implementation as barriers. This thesis argues that the emergence of low-cost inventory and …

Application Of Open-Source Small Large Language Models For Finance Report Analysis, Tue Vu, Mark Austin, Marcel Tuijn

SMU Data Science Review

The rapid integration of generative AI in finance introduces both opportunities and challenges, particularly when analyzing sensitive data such as Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. This study investigates the use of open-source Small Large Language Models (SLLMs), deployed locally through the Ollama and LangChain frameworks, combined with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for extracting financial insights relevant to index performance and reporting quality. Two key objectives guide this work: (1) benchmarking multiple open-source SLLMs for sentiment analysis, multiple-choice reasoning, and financial question answering, and (2) assessing the feasibility of locally deployed SLLMs for domain-specific financial queries. A standardized set of 50 …

Beyond Words: A Systematic Multimodal Framework For Text, Images, And Extreme Helpfulness In Online Reviews, Alvaro J. Aguado Marin

Dissertations

Online product reviews have become increasingly multimodal, combining text with media-rich elements such as images. However, academic research has largely examined textual features in isolation, overlooking how visual content and its interaction with text shape perceived helpfulness. This dissertation addresses that gap by developing and empirically validating a comprehensive framework capturing how textual, visual, and contextual features collectively influence review evaluation. Grounded in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) and extended through the Text-Image Elaboration Likelihood Model (TI-ELM), the framework advances understanding of how consumers process content from both user- and business-generated sources. It also lays the foundation for examining emerging …

From Enhancement To Substitution: A Strategic Provocation On Simulation-Based Sport, Grant B. Morgan, Andreas Stamatis

Journal of Applied Sport Management

Advances in artificial intelligence, large-scale machine learning, and simulation technologies are rapidly transforming how sport is played, analyzed, and consumed. To date, most scholarly and industry discussions frame these technologies as tools that enhance embodied sport by improving performance, officiating, media production, and fan engagement. This paper extends that conversation by posing a more provocative strategic question: under what conditions might simulation move from enhancement to substitution? Focusing explicitly on sport as a business and entertainment enterprise, we argue that many of sport’s core sources of cultural and economic value—uncertainty of outcome, narrative continuity, legitimacy, and collective meaning—are structurally …

Modeling Private Debt Using U.S. Consumer Expenditure Data, Stsiapan Dziamentsyeu

Honors Capstones

This project models private household debt among U.S. consumers using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) between 2013 and 2023. The analysis focuses on identifying how demographic and economic characteristics, such as income, housing expenditures, education, and occupation, relate to non-mortgage “other” loan balances. After initial model development produced poor residual behavior due to zero-inflation from imputed debt values, the analysis was refined to include only households reporting verifiable debt. Multiple modeling techniques, including AIC-based variable selection and Lasso regularization, were compared under a five-fold cross-validation framework. The Lasso model achieved superior predictive accuracy (RMSE = 1.55, MAE = …

An Assessment And Comparison Of Expert System Performance And Large Language Model Performance, Carter A. Lange

ATU Honors Projects

This study compares the performance of knowledge-based expert systems (KBES) and large language models (LLMs) in narrow-domain tasks. Using Akinator as the representative KBES and ChatGPT as the representative LLM, fifty character-identification trials were conducted. Results show that both systems ultimately succeeded in identifying all characters, but their efficiency and accuracy differ. Akinator required fewer incorrect guesses and produced no identifiable total failures, or “errors,” while ChatGPT occasionally erred beyond possible continuation despite similar average guess counts. Statistical analysis revealed no significant difference in the number of questions required before success, but McNemar’s test indicated that ChatGPT made significantly more …

The Artificial Intelligence (Ai) Economy In The Mountain West, 2025, Dre Boyd-Weatherly, Sean Curry, Krish Sharma, Kristian Thymianos, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet reports on the artificial intelligence (AI) readiness of five Mountain West metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs): Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ; Salt Lake City-Murray, UT; Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO; Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV; and Albuquerque, NM. Using data from the Brookings Institution's “Mapping the AI Economy” report, the MSAs are benchmarked based on their overall population, employment, talent, adoption, and innovation.

Feedback Strategies In The Market With Uncertainties, Mustapha Nyenye Issah

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

This paper explores how established firms use strategic advertising to deter new competitors in uncertain markets. Specifically, it models a situation where market demand evolves unpredictably - captured by the CKLS stochastic process, and the incumbent firm may be either strong or weak, a fact hidden from potential entrants. For a company already in the market, advertising is not just about driving immediate sales, it is a strategic tool to project an image of strength and deter potential new competitors. On the other side, a business thinking about entering that market faces a high-stakes, irreversible decision. It will typically hold …

Is Complexity Virtuous?, Ryan Elmore, Jack Strauss

Business Information and Analytics: Faculty Scholarship

(Kelly et al., 2024) show that increasing complexity in linear models, with potentially thousands of predictors, is "virtuous". Their work contradicts the dogma of model selection, including the Principles of Parsimony and Occam's Razor. They find that when the number of predictors far exceeds the number of observations, the bias-variance trade-off breaks down, the variance declines, and the Sharpe ratio increases. In the context of ridge regression, we find that very high complexity coupled with large penalty terms (excessive shrinkage) generate forecasts that converge to a rolling window of past returns. For example, we show the past twelve-month moving average …

Localized Nuclear Utility For Erau Environmental Improvement, Timothy Schroeder, Jacob Blanton, Christopher Anderson

Sustainability Conference

The reliance of Embry Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) on energy supplied by Florida Power & Light (FPL), which currently draws large amounts of power from fossil fuel sources, is continuously suboptimal both environmentally and financially. This study proposes assessing the feasibility of deploying a campus scale nuclear reactor tailored to ERAU’s power consumption profile. This serves as a path toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions and limiting dependence on external fossil fuel generation. The methods used are primarily literature review(s), and numerical analysis on comparable use cases. The literature reviews focused on design theory and yield of nuclear reactors on a …

Unified Hybrid Censoring Samples From Power Pratibha Distribution And Its Applications, Mahmoud Mansour, Hebatalla H. Mohammad Dr, Khalaf S. Sultan Prof.

Basic Science Engineering

This paper suggests an extensive inferential method for the Power Pratibha Distribution (PPD) under Unified Hybrid Censoring Schemes (UHCSs), since there is a growing interest in flexible models in both reliability and service operations. This work studies the PPD model using standard Maximum Likelihood Estimation methods and modern Bayesian approaches too. Using a complex architecture, UHCS simulates tests more closely to what is done in practice than by using more basic censoring schemes. Using analysis, the probability and statistical ranges are carefully calculated for the parameters. Tests demonstrate that Bayesian estimation gives better results than many other methods for estimation, …

Orchestrating Complexity: The Art Of Virtual Leadership In System Modelling, Vijay Kumar Sonawane, Bipllab Roy, Purnendu Bikash Acharjee, Indu Pv

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

This paper explores the dynamics of virtual leadership within global remote work environments, focusing on the application of complex system modelling to understand and enhance leadership efficacy. The application of computational modelling has been a regular feature in economics, science and technology fields, however its application in virtual leadership with linkage to sport leadership appears to be a novel concept. Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, this paper incorporates Game Theory as a conceptual framework to make the leadership model more relevant and applicable that can offer simpler understanding of complex play of leadership drivers. The model incorporates five key leadership dimensional …

Analytics Insights From Text: Machine Learning, Ai, And Sentiment Analysis On Beige Books, Charlie Smith

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

Business analytics is about drawing actionable insights from data. These distinct but connected essays represent a novel approach to explore how natural language processing (NLP) advances and machine learning can transform unstructured text data into actionable conclusions. Essay 1 provides a broad framework. Essay 2 strengthens the sentiment analysis with the most recent artificial intelligence methodologies for capturing nuanced sentiment in complex texts. Essay 3 applies those insights to forecast recessions using topics that can be readily interpreted and applied.

The research demonstrates how these methodologies can be applied to enhance understanding of the same dataset, Beige Books. Published by …

Comparative Analysis Of Regression And Random Forest Models For Player Performance Prediction In The Mls, Joshua Clement Madeti

Senior Honors Theses

Advanced technology and analytics have transformed the world and have benefited several industries throughout, the sport industry being one of them. Data is constantly generated during sports and requires post-game or post-season analysis which is crucial to team and player success. In this paper, the researcher will focus on the impact of analytics on soccer and soccer players. With over three billion active fans, soccer is the most famous sport in the world yet, when it comes to analytics, it is lagging. The thesis includes a comparative study of multiple linear regression and random forest regression to explore whether these …

Shortage To Surge - Studying The Post-Covid-19 Guitar Retail Market, Jed H. Kim

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

The COVID-19 pandemic was one of the most catalyzing events of the 21st century, leading to supply chain disruptions, lifestyle changes, and a massive shift towards digital technologies. During the COVID-19 lockdown, many people had more free time, and over 16 million individuals learned to play guitar in the first 2 years of the pandemic. According to a study by Fender, 62% of these new guitar learners cited the pandemic as their primary reason for learning the instrument. However, pandemic policies and supply chain disruptions meant that many guitar retailers were unable to satisfy demand, and backorders accumulated. After the …