Business Commons^™

On The Pricing Of Top And Drop Excess Of Loss Covers, Jean-Francois Walhin, Michel Denuit

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A top and drop cover is a treaty that can be found on the retrocession market. It offers capacity that can be used either to protect a top layer or a working layer. The former is called a "top" and the latter is called a "drop." Using the traditional collective risk model, we demonstrate the use of a multivariate version of Panjer's algorithm to price this cover. We also compare the premium obtained within the exact model with the premiums obtained either with the Frechet bounds or with the wrong assumption of independence.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 12 (2005) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, Actuarial Frameworks ○ …

An Application Of Control Theory To The Individual Aggregate Cost Method, Alexandros A. Zimbidis, Steven Haberman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The paper investigates the individual aggregate cost method (also known as the individual spread-gain method), which is normally applicable in small pension funds or fully contributory schemes, using a control theoretical framework. We construct the difference equations describing the mechanisms of the respective funding method and then calculate the optimal control path of the contribution rate assuming (first) a stochastic and (second) a deterministic pattern for the future investment rates of return. For the first case, the optimal solution is achieved through a linear approximation and using stochastic optimization techniques. It is proved that the contribution rate is (optimally) controlled …

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-Eig Distribution, Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, Adrian Y.W. Wong

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The log-EIG distribution was recently introduced to the probability literature. It has positive support and a moderately long tail, and is closer to the lognormal than to the gamma or Weibull distributions. Our simulations show that data generated from a log-EIG distribution cannot be adequately described by lognormal, gamma, or Weibull distributions. The log-EIG distribution is a worthwhile candidate for modeling insurance claims (loss) data or lifetime data. Examples of fitting the log-EIG to published insurance claims data are given.

A Modern Approach To Modeling Insurances On Two Lives, Maria Bilikova, Graham Luffrum

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The analysis of life insurance contracts on two lives using the traditional deterministic approach has been an important part of actuarial education for the past fifty years or more. Recently there has been a shift from this deterministic approach to one using a more modern stochastic approach involving the future lifetime random variable. In this paper we will look at the problem using multiple-state models. In our view this approach allows a deeper analysis than either the traditional or the random future lifetime ones.

Ultimate Ruin Probability For A Time-Series Risk Model With Dependent Classes Of Insurance Business, Lai Mei Wan, Kam Chuen Yuen, Wai Keung Li

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider a discrete-time risk model with m (m ~ 2) dependent classes of insurance business. The claim processes of these m classes are assumed to follow a multivariate autoregressive time-series model of order 1. Given this claims model, we explore the probability of ultimate ruin assuming exponentially bounded claims. As an example, we use simulations to study the case where there are two business and the underlying losses are of two types: bivariate exponential and bivariate gamma claim distributions.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 12, 2005, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Risk-Based Regulatory Capital for Insurers: A Case Study • Christian Sutherland-Wong and Michael Sherris 5

A New Hybrid Defined Benefit Plan Design • Wayne E. Dydo . 47

A Primer on Duration, Convexity, and Immunization • Leslaw Gajek, Krzysztof Ostaszewski, and Hans-Joachim Zwiesler 59

Modeling Clusters of Extreme Losses • Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes and Juliana Sa Freire de Lima 83

Modeling Insurance Loss Data: The Log-EIG Distribution • Uditha Balasooriya, Chan Kee Low, and Adrian Y W Wong 101

A Modern Approach to Modeling Insurances on Two Lives • Maria Bilikova and Graham Luffrum 127

On the …

2005 Nebraska Business

College of Business: Trade Publications

2005 Nebraska Business

The New Silver Bullets Of Leadership: The Importance Of Self- And Shared Leadership In Knowledge Work, Craig L. Pearce, Charles C. Manz

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

How are the capabilities of knowledge workers best harnessed? Traditionally, organizations have focused on a top-heavy, heroic model of leadership in order to extract work-product from their employees. We believe this model is a myth. It is becoming ever more difficult for any one person to be an expert on all aspects of the work that needs to be done, and this is true in a wide variety of contexts ranging from the research and development (R&D) lab to the executive suite. Recent research indicates that two alternative sources of leadership—self leadership and shared leadership—hold considerable promise for enhancing the …

Additions To Corporate Boards: The Effect Of Gender, Kathleen A. Farrell, Philip L. Hersch

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

During the decade of the 1990s the number of women serving on corporate boards increased substantially. Over this decade, we show that the likelihood of a firm adding a woman to its board in a given year is negatively affected by the number of woman already on the board. The probability of adding a woman is materially increased when a female director departs the board. Adding a director, therefore, is clearly not gender neutral. Although we find that women tend to serve on better performing firms, we also document insignificant abnormal returns on the announcement of a woman added to …

Marketing Locally Produced Foods: Consumer And Farmer Opinions In Washington County, Nebraska, Mindi L. Schneider, Charles A. Francis

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Local food system potentials were studied in Washington County, Nebraska, United States. As a departure from most studies of locally based systems, farmers were surveyed in addition to consumers for potential participation. Data about the current food system and opinions and preferences for local production, marketing, and purchasing of food were collected using self-administered mail questionnaires. The response rate was 35% for the farmer survey and 37% for the consumer survey. Results indicated that, on the farming side of the food system, conventional corn and soybean production and marketing predominated in Washington County, and farmer interest in producing for local …

The Psychological Capital Of Chinese Workers: Exploring The Relationship With Performance, Fred Luthans, Bruce Avolio, Fred Walumbwa, Weixing Li

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Everyone knows about China’s huge population and the fast-growing economy. Although macro-level sociological and economic analyses have given some attention to the linkage between the two, at the micro level, the relationship between human resources and, more specifically, psychological capital of Chinese workers and their performance has been largely ignored. Within the context of three factories (two private and one state-owned) in the People’s Republic of China, this exploratory study examined the relationship of a sample (n=422) of Chinese workers’ positive psychological capital states and their performance. Results indicated the workers’ positive states of hope, optimism, and resiliency, separately and …

“Can You See The Real Me?” A Self-Based Model Of Authentic Leader And Follower Development, William L. Gardner, Bruce J. Avolio, Fred Luthans, Douglas R. May, Fred Walumbwa

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

To address present and future leadership needs, a model of authentic leader and follower development is proposed and examined with respect to its relationship to veritable, sustainable follower performance. The developmental processes of leader and follower self-awareness and self-regulation are emphasized. The influence of the leader’s and followers’ personal histories and trigger events are considered as antecedents of authentic leadership and followership, as well as the reciprocal effects with an inclusive, ethical, caring and strength-based organizational climate. Positive modeling is viewed as a primary means whereby leaders develop authentic followers. Posited outcomes of authentic leader–follower relationships include heightened levels of …

Sustained Growth In Nebraska, Saeed Ahmad, John Austin, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Mike Lundeen, Donis Petersan, Franz Schwarz, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner

Business in Nebraska

National Macroeconomic conditions are favorable for future expansion of income, employment, and revenue in Nebraska. In particular, the U.S. economy is now in the heart of an expansion expected to persist over the three year forecast period. The principal engine of growth will be a sustained expansion in private sector investment and consumption demand.

However, the rate of growth in the national economy likely will be moderate rather than rapid. At least three factors will act to moderate growth. The first is higher energy prices. Rapid growth in global demand is expected to keep prices for oil and natural gas …

The Importance Of Marketing And Total Quality Management In Libraries, Rajashekhar D. Kumbar

E-JASL: Electronic Journal of Academic and Special Librarianship (1999-2009, Volumes 1-10)

Introduction

Herb White, states in Library Journal, “... it should be fairly clear that librarians do not market and that they never have marketed.” He concludes, “What we need to tell people is not how wonderful our public libraries are but rather how wonderful they could be. The awakening of these dreams is the purpose of marketing” (Besant & Sharp, 2000). Since the 1960’s, the most widely taught marketing concept was the marketing mix theory: the 4Ps (product, price, place and promotion)—so clean, so neat, so inappropriate for libraries. Marketing theory cannot always be so succinctly described since relationships …

The Role Of Relational Knowledge Stores In Interfirm Partnering, Jean L. Johnson, Ravipreet S. Sohi, Rajdeep Grewal

Department of Marketing: Faculty Publications

Drawing on the notions of relational capabilities and absorptive capacity, the authors examine the effects of interactional, functional, and environmental knowledge stores on relationship quality and relationship portfolio effectiveness. The results suggest that the knowledge stores affect the outcome variables differently and that the effects vary by levels of industry turbulence.

Network Consequences Due To Oligopolists And Oligopsonists In The Hog Industry, Pollution From Hog Production, And The Failure To Regulate Ecological Criteria, F. Gregory Hayden

College of Business: Faculty Publications

Humans have been in a symbiotic relationship with hogs since the time humans became a species. That relationship evolved into a set of transactional (as defined by instrumentalists) processes beginning with the hunter-gatherer tribes. The network of relationships has continued to become more numerous, intense, and complex. Hogs have served in social systems with humans as societal symbols for prowess for numerous groups (with wild boars, for example, on coats of arms in Europe), as religious symbols (both positive and negative), as a source of human disease in the hog-chicken-human cycle for generating flu in Asia, and, more recently, as …

What Students Remember And Say About College Economics Years Later, Sam Allgood, William Bosshardt, Wilbert Van Der Klaauw, Michael Watts

College of Business: Faculty Publications

In his presidential address to the American Economic Association, George Stigler (1963) offered the provocative hypothesis that students would retain very little knowledge from principles courses in economics five years or more after taking the courses. The few empirical studies that have been published on this topic generally found no or small lasting effects, at least for those who took fewer than four courses (see e.g., G. L. Bach and Phillip Saunders, 1965; Gerald J. Lynch, 1990). That raises even broader questions about the long-term effects of studying economics in college, in terms of individuals’ behavior as consumers, workers, and …

Mortgage Debt: The Good News, Donna M. Dudney, Manford Peterson, Thomas S. Zorn

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Executive Summary
• The usual advice given to the public by financial planners and the popular press is that less debt is better and in particular owning your own house outright is a desirable goal.
• We show that this advice is often wrong because mortgage debt acts as an inflation hedge. Mortgage debt also has a valuable refinancing option in case interest rates fall and an abandonment option if the value of the property declines.
• Mortgage debt is often seen simply as necessary because of people’s limited financial assets. Specifically, people can purchase a home only if they …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 11, 2004, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES (the entire volume)

Product Innovation in Financial Services: A Survey • Christopher O'Brien 5

Phased Retirement for Defined Benefit Plan Participants • Patricia L. Scahill and Jonathan Barry Forman . 43

The Actuarial Value of Life Insurance Backdating • James M Carson and Krzysztof M Ostaszewski . 63

Decision Tree Analysis of Terminated Life Insurance Policies • Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, and Hian Chye Koh . 79

A Comparative Study of Parametric and Nonparametric Estimators of Old-Age Mortality in Sweden • Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, and Kitt Skovsø Petersen 103

Estimation of Complete …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 11 (2004) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

Rapid Calculation Of The Price Of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit Ratchet Options Embedded In Annuities, Eric R. Ulm

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper presents a new method of obtaining quick and accurate values and deltas for discrete look back options using Taylor series expansions. This method is applied to the case of ratchet guaranteed minimum death benefits attached to annuity contracts, and the method is extended to include annuities where a fixed fund is attached to the variable account. Finally, both the speed and the accuracy of the method are compared to Monte Carlo simulation and the exact analytic solution. The Taylor expansion method is shown to be faster and, in most cases, more accurate than the alternative methods.

Approximating The Bias And Variance Of Chain Ladder Estimates Under A Compound Poisson Model, Janagan Yogaranpan, Sue Clarke, Shauna Ferris, John Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the problem of estimating the outstanding claims produced by a homogeneous general insurance portfolio. The specific model considered in this paper is one where the number of claims in any loss period follows a Poisson distribution, settlement delays follow the same multinomial distribution, and settlements are single lump sums that are independent identically distributed random variables. Simulations using this model reveal that the development ratios and the outstanding claims estimates produced using the chain ladder method are positively biased. We obtain approximate formulas for the biases using Taylor series expansions of the random variables about their means. The …

Decision Tree Analysis Of Terminated Life Insurance Policies, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, Hian Chye Koh

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Statistical methods such as regression and survival analysis have traditionally been used to investigate the factors affecting the duration of terminated life insurance policies. This study explores a different approach: it uses a more recently developed data mining technique called decision trees. By sequentially partitioning the data to maximize differences in the dependent variable (duration in this study), the decision trees technique is good at identifying data segments with significant differences in the dependent variable. This identification can be useful when a company is trying to understand the factors driving or associated with the termination of life insurance policies. Decision …

A Comparative Study Of Parametric And Nonparametric Estimators Of Old-Age Mortality In Sweden, Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, Kitt Skovso Petersen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A recent study of Swedish old-age mortality used a modified GompertzMakeham model with a linear hazard for the force of mortality. We propose an alternative model using smooth two-dimensional kernel hazard estimators and introduce a new estimator based on the multiplicative bias correction for the multivariate marker dependent hazard. The multiplicative bias correction appears to have great potential for estimating mortality rates at the highest ages. We also observe that mortality continues to increase at an exponential rate even in old-age.

Phased Retirement For Defined Benefit Plan Participants, Patricia L. Scahill, Jonathan Barry Forman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The demographic makeup of the U.S. workforce is changing. The population between ages SS and 64 is projected to increase significantly by 2020, but employment rates for this age group have not been increasing. Employers will likely need to encourage critical employees in this age group to delay retirement. Phased retirement is one tool for delaying retirement, while also not continuing full-time employment, so it can be a compromise for employers and employees. Both Congress and two administrative agencies have begun to consider changes in pension laws and regulations that would be needed to accommodate phased retirement for employers who …

The Actuarial Value Of Life Insurance Backdating, James M. Carson, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Backdating is a common (and legal) practice in the U.S. whereby a life insurance contract bears a policy date that is prior to the actual application date. This practice often results in the opportunity for some insureds to reduce the annual premium paid. Using cash flow projections and U.S. mortality, lapse, and interest rate data, we provide a model of the actuarial value of term life insurance backdating. Results indicate that the benefits to the applicant of backdating a term life insurance policy increase as the applicant age (and hence premium) increases. Increasing mortality, lapse, and interest rates, as well …

Credibility Theory And Geometry, Elias S.W. Shiu, Fuk Yum Sing

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We present a geometric approach to studying greatest accuracy credibility theory. Our main tool is the concept of orthogonal projections. We show, for example, that to determine the Buhlmann credibility premium is to find the coefficients of the minimum-norm vector in an affine space spanned by certain orthogonal random variables. Our approach is illustrated by deriving various common credibility formulas. Several equivalent forms of the credibility factor Z are derived by means of similar triangles.

Product Innovation In Financial Services: A Survey, Christopher O'Brien

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper considers product innovation in insurance and other financial services, an area where actuaries have an important role. It considers the proposition that there is no unique formula for success and that what works well in one situation may not work well in another. It first examines the sources of ideas for new products and, in particular, the role played by consumers, which is generally regarded as weak. It then looks at how ideas are implemented, with particular importance attributed to cross-functional teams and the formality of the product development process. Then it considers how success is measured (with …

Estimation Of Complete Period Life Tables For Singaporeans, Siu-Hang Li, Wai-Sum Chan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Complete period life tables, with death rates for every year of age, are not available in Singapore. This study constructs such tables for Singaporeans from the limited mortality information contained in the abridged life tables provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics. We find that linear interpolation, Whittaker graduation, and the Coale-Kisker method together can generate complete life tables that are smooth and continuous. The validity of the complete life tables generated by our method is further confirmed by (1) comparing the life expectancies calculated from our estimated life tables with those provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics, and …