Business Commons^™

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty And Momentum, Bing Han, Dong Hong, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Momentum arises from the investor gradually learning about the relative accuracy of the information sources and updating their weights. Empirical tests validate the model's prediction of stronger …

Price Multiples As Indicators Of Stock Price Movement: Evidence From The 21st Century, Jason Zamichiei

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper examines the use of price multiples to predict stock returns. The price to earnings, price to sales, and price to book value multiples are regressed against annual stock returns to determine if a relation between the magnitude of the multiples and returns exists. The results indicate that there are relations between low price to earnings and price to sales multiples and positive returns. I find no evidence that the price to book value multiple can be used to develop a stock buying strategy.

Fragility: The Next Wave In Critical Infrastructure Protection, Allan Mcdougall

Journal of Strategic Security

In North America today, we are about to embark on a significant effort to repair, or even upgrade, many aspects of our infrastructure. Many of these efforts are linked to economic recovery packages. Others are based on sheer need. The challenge for decision makers and planners involves ensuring that scarce economic resources are put to their best use. Understanding the concept of fragility plays a pivotal part in reaching that understanding.Fragility, like many other systems—particularly Information Technology (IT ) systems—works on the concept of subjects and objects. Subjects are those entities that seek to exploit the services (or capacity) offered …

The Importance Of Intelligence In Combating A Modern Insurgency, Kevin Reamer

Journal of Strategic Security

Throughout history the world has been plagued by insurgencies. While the underlying causes of each new insurgency have been different, they are all similar in certain areas. This similarity entails that the effective countering of an insurgency can be turned into a science with a set of guidelines to follow based on conditions on the ground. Guidelines are important because insurgencies are flexible and to defeat them the counterinsurgency must be equally flexible if not more flexible. Good intelligence is critical to the success of an insurgency. With their small, poorly equipped forces, the leaders of insurgencies need to know …

Book Reviews, Edward J. Hagerty, Ed Urie

Journal of Strategic Security

Afghanistan: Transition Under Threat. By Geoffrey Hayes and Mark Sedra, editors.

Enemies of Intelligence: Knowledge & Power in American National Security. By Richard K. Betts.

Film Reviews, Bart Bechtel

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Al-Qaeda In The Lands Of The Islamic Maghreb, Gregory A. Smith

Journal of Strategic Security

This paper is organized into four chapters that focus on the terrorist group Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The four chapters examine different facets of the collective environment that have allowed AQIM to succeed and even thrive at times. The first chapter begins with Algeria’s war of independence with the French. The second chapter focuses on the nomadic Tuareg people. It seeks to show how the Tuaregs were deprived by French occupiers and how European colonization cost the Tuaregs access to vital trade routes used for centuries. The third chapter will very briefly examine Algeria’s …

Cover & Front Matter

Journal of Strategic Security

No abstract provided.

Targeted Killing: Self-Defense, Preemption, And The War On Terrorism, Thomas Byron Hunter

Journal of Strategic Security

This paper assesses the parameters and utility of “targeted killing” in combating terrorism and its role within the norm of state self-defense in the international community. The author’s thesis is that, while targeted killing provides states with a method of combating terrorism, and while it is “effective” on a number of levels, it is inherently limited and not a panacea. The adoption and execution of such a program brings with it, among other potential pitfalls, political repercussions. Targeted killing is defined herein as the premeditated, preemptive, and intentional killing of an individual or individuals known or believed to represent a …

Institutional Trading Frictions, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Pankaj K. Jain

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose and empirically examine a comprehensive measure of institutional trading frictions to include the dimensions of price impact, quantity of execution, return dynamics, speed of execution or order splitting, and trading commissions. Our empirical analysis reveals that various hidden components of institutional trading frictions such as adverse selection and clean-up costs are persistent and could add significantly to previously measured directly observable components of transaction costs. Our simultaneous system of equations accounts for the endogeniety in institutional order aggressiveness based on potentially superior information as well as order splitting strategies in the implementation stage to reduce transaction costs. Order …

Comparing Lodging Reits Using Dupont Analysis: Evaluating Shareholder Equity, John Richard Kane Pellika

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This research paper compares lodging REITs using DuPont analysis. The study examined United States publicly traded lodging REITs’ balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements between the quarterly periods of 12/31/1997 to 12/31/2005. Lodging REITs have to adhere to the REIT status guidelines, 90 percent of their taxable income must be distributed as dividends to shareholders and at least 75 percent of their income must come from real estate. Lodging REITs do not have government requirements on how a firm must efficiently manage its operations through financial leverage. The results indicate that there is a disparity between individual lodging …

Extreme Events And The Copula Pricing Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, Zhanyong Liu, Gang-Zhi Fan, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), as a portfolio-based financial product, have gained great popularity in financial markets. This paper extends Childs, Ott and Riddiough’s (J Financ Quant Anal, 31(4), 581–603, 1996) model by proposing a copula-based methodology for pricing CMBS bonds. Default on underlying commercial mortgages within a pool is a crucial risk associated with CMBS transactions. Two important issues associated with such default—extreme events and default dependencies among the mortgages—have been identified to play crucial roles in determining credit risk in the pooled commercial mortgage portfolios. This article pays particular attention to these two issues in pricing CMBS bonds. Our …

A Computational Exploration Of The Efficacy Of Fibonacci Sequences In Technical Analysis And Trading, Sukanto Bhattacharya, Kuldeep Kumar

Kuldeep Kumar

Among the vast assemblage of technical analysis tools, the ones based on Fibonacci recurrences in asset prices are relatively more scientific. In this paper, we review some of the popular technical analysis methodologies based on Fibonacci sequences and also advance a theoretical rationale as to why security prices may be seen to follow such sequences. We also analyze market data for an indicative empirical validation of the efficacy or otherwise of such sequences in predicting critical security price retracements that may be useful in constructing automated trading systems. © 2006 Peking University Press

Applying Fundamental Analysis And Neural Networks In The Australian Stockmarket, Bruce J. Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper demonstrates how Neural Networks may be successfully applied to the problem of security selection in the Australian stockmarket. In practice, it is unrealistic for a trader to apply capital to all securities available in the market, and a selection technique must be employed to reduce the number of securities competing for capital. Selection techniques are generally based on either fundamental analysis procedures, or technical analysis procedures. This paper focuses on fundamental procedures, and implements a neural network which enhances the effectiveness of these procedures.

A Survey Of The Application Of Soft Computing To Investment And Financial Trading, Bruce Vanstone, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of applying Soft Computing to Investment and Financial Trading. It analyses the literature according to the style of soft computing used, the investment discipline used, the successes demonstrated, and the applicability of the research to real world trading. This papers contribution is to expose the key areas where research is being undertaken, and to attempt to quantify the degree of successes associated with the different research approaches.

Enhancing Security Selection In The Australian Stockmarket Using Fundamental Analysis And Neural Networks, Bruce Vanstone, Gavin Finnie, Clarence Tan

Bruce Vanstone

This paper examines financial trading from the aspect of security selection. In practice, it is unrealistic for a financial trader to participate in the full market of tradeable securities, and a selection mechanism must be employed to reduce the number of possible securities competing for investment capital. Essentially, there are two main methodologies used, namely, Fundamental Analysis, and Technical Analysis. This paper examines the practice of Fundamental Analysis, and demonstrates how neural networks can be practically employed to enhance the fundamentalist selection process.

Special Edition Of Journal Of Business Ethics, Marilynn P. Fleckenstein Ph.D., Patrick Flanagan, Victoria Shoaf Ph.D., Patricia Werhane Ph.D.

Patrick Flanagan

DePaul University hosted the 14th Annual International Conference Promoting Business Ethics, at The Standard Club in Chicago, November 1–3, 2007. Academic and business leaders came together to explore the important ethical issues facing the business community in the twenty-first century. The articles in this special volume of The Journal of Business Ethics have been selected from the many presentations at this conference. Sponsored annually by the Vincentian Universities in the United States (DePaul University, in Chicago, Illinois; Niagara University in Niagara Falls, NY; and St. John’s University in Queens, NY) this conference promotes the mission of St. Vincent DePaul, the …

Using High-Frequency Transaction Data To Estimate The Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper applies the asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) using irregularly spaced transaction data. We model trade direction (buy versus sell orders) and the duration between trades jointly. Unlike the Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O'Hara(2002) approach, which uses the aggregate numbers of daily buy and sell orders to estimate PIN, our methodology allows for interactions between consecutive buy-sell orders and accounts for the duration between trades and the volume of trade. We extend the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O'Hara framework by allowing the probabilities of good news and bad news to …

The Performance Of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts, Jerry Cao, Josh Lerner

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Reverse leveraged buyouts (RLBOs) have received increased public scrutiny but attracted little systematic study. We collect a comprehensive sample of 526 RLBOs between 1981 and 2003 and examine the three-year and five-year stock performance of these offerings. RLBOs appear to perform as well as or better than other initial public offerings and the stock market as a whole, depending on the specification. Evidence exists of a deterioration of returns over time.

Institutional Investors, Past Performance, And Dynamic Loss Aversion, Paul G. J. O'Connell, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using a proprietary database of currency trades, this paper explores the effects of trading gains and losses on risk-taking among large institutional investors. We find that institutional investors, unlike individuals, are not prone to the disposition effect. Instead, institutions aggressively reduce risk following losses and mildly increase risk following gains. This asymmetry is more pronounced later in the calendar year and among older and more experienced funds. We show that such performance dependence is consistent with dynamic loss aversion (Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2001)) and overconfidence. In addition, prior institutional gains and losses have palpable implications for future prices.

Institutional Investors And Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?, Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by short-term institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.

Expected Equity Option Returns, Xue Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Substantial progress has been made in investigating `Overpriced Puts Puzzle' which exists in index futures options. However, scarce studies focus on whether single-stock options also have similar problems. This thesis analyzes the returns of individual stocks' calls, puts, and their portfolios, both theoretically and empirically. Adopting the methodology of Broadie, Chernov, and Johannes (2008), I find that (1) calls have positive expected returns while puts have negative expected returns. The expected returns of both calls and puts are increasing in the strike price. (2) CAPM alphas and Sharpe ratios are reasonable for calls options, but they are too negative for …

Financial Distress And Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation, Lorán Chollete, Jing Chen, Rina Ray

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Financial Implications Of Extreme And Rare Events, Lorán Chollete, Dwight Jaffee

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Dependence Of Macro Variables In The Us Economy, Lorán Chollete, Cathy Ning

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Modeling International Financial Returns With A Multivariate Regime-Switching Copula, Lorán Chollete, Andreas Heinen, Alfonso Valdesogo

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Special Edition Of Journal Of Business Ethics, Patrick Flanagan, Marilynn P. Fleckenstein Ph.D., Victoria Shoaf Ph.D., Patricia Werhane Ph.D.

Patrick Flanagan

The articles in this special volume of Journal of Business Ethics have been selected from the many presentations at this conference and represent a cross section of the topics and issues covered at the Vincentian Business Ethics Conference at the Manhattan campus of St. John's University in the fall of 2009. Sponsored annually by the Vincentian universities in the United States (DePaul University, in Chicago, Illinois; Niagara University in Niagara Falls, NY; and St. John’s University in Queens, NY), this conference promotes the mission of St. Vincent DePaul, the seventeenth-century Roman Catholic saint who serves as the patron of these …

Does Vc Reputation Affect Function Of Lockup Agreement?, Kejia He

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Instead of perceiving lockup agreement and VC-backing as exogenous variables, this paper employs the VC-backed IPO data and takes a closer examination on the specific effect of VC reputation, which impacts the choice of lockup length and return and volume abnormality around lockup expiry. Contrary to the commitment hypothesis proposed by previous literatures, the data suggests that less VC-backed companies tend to choose a longer lockup agreement as a compensation device and those companies backed by more reputable VC experience less negative abnormal return and less abnormal volume around lockup expiry.

Illiquidity, Stock Return And Corporate Capital Structure: Evidence From Seasoned Equity Offering, Zhao Yu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The post-issue underperformance of seasoned equity offering (SEO) is generally explained by asymmetric information and deteriorating operating performance. We complement these traditional explanations with a new parameter, the liquidity, which results from the change of capital structure due to equity offering. The new issuing of equity lowers the debt to asset ratio, lowers the information asymmetry, thus increasing stock liquidity, which is in accordance with the hypotheses presented by Kyle(1985)'s model; Evidence that stocks become more liquid after SEO, thus lower the expected return, resulting to underperformance, combined with the high stock illiquidity before SEO, which coincides the high return, …

Determinants Of Debt And Dividend Decisions: Trade-Off Vs Pecking Order, Caitlin A. Farrell

Theses & Honors Papers

This study tests the trade-off and pecking order theories about the dividend and debt decisions for stock firms. The decision of a firm to use debt to finance investment opportunities is important since the firm's choice between debt or equity determines the optimal capital structure. Under the trade-off theory, there is some optimal balance between debt and equity, and the firm will use debt until the cost of taking on more debt is more expensive than the cost of issuing equity. The firm uses internal fonds first under the pecking order theory, and then if more financing is needed, the …