Business Commons^™

Value Allocation In Regional Shopping Centers, Mark Eppli

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

Understanding consumer shopping patterns is essential in estimating the value of regional shopping centers. Consumer shopping behavior determines retail sales at regional shopping centers which, in turn, impacts shopping center rents and value. This article quantifies the effects of consumer shopping behavior on nonanchor tenant sales in regional shopping centers. The results of this study reveal that the effects of location, comparison shopping, and department store image are important in estimating shopping center patronage and retail sales. They also indicate that the value of a mall can be allocated to real estate and non-real estate value.

In-Touch - March 1998, Nova Southeastern University

NSU Digital: In-Touch

No abstract provided.

A Vft Approach To Allocation Of Manpower And Budget Cuts, Thomas G. Boushell

Theses and Dissertations

The National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC), like many Department of Defense (DoD) and civilian organizations, has been forced to undergo budget and manpower reductions. This year's resource allocation decision requires NAIC to identify both contracts and personnel to be cut. In order to reduce the amount of time and subjectivity involved in this important decision, a resource allocation model was developed to compare different alternatives. This model uses decision analysis with value-focused thinking to quantify the resultant impact of the chosen cuts. The impact was quantified based upon the NAIC Commander's values and preferences, which were used to build a …

The Fischer Black Hypothesis: Some Time-Series Evidence, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We estimate an ARCH-M model to analyze the relationship between the conditional standard deviation of real gross national product (GNP) and its growth rate for the period 1871-1993. We find that variability significantly increases output growth rates. In addition, impulse response functions show that the effect of variability on growth rates is dynamic. These results provide evidence in favor of Black's (1987) business cycle hypothesis.

Indiana State University Financial Report 1998, Indiana State University

Financial Reports

No abstract provided.

Community Development Work Study Grant Proposal To Hud: The Selection Factors And Management Plan, Strawberry Kathy Gatts

Theses Digitization Project

No abstract provided.

1997-1998 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

1997-1998 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Using Parametric Statistical Models To Estimate Mortality Structure: The Case Of Taiwan, Shih-Chieh Chang

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A mixture parametric model is used to analyze the changing pattern of Taiwanese mortality from 1926 to 1991. Three different age ranges are modeled as mixtures of extreme value distributions, namely the Weibull, inverse Weibull, and Gompertz distributions. The results show a significant improvement of mortality over the years.

Principles And Application Of Credibility Theory, Vincent Goulet

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We review the history of the practical development of credibility theory. Emphasis is placed on the two main approaches to credibility theory: limited fluctuation credibility and greatest accuracy credibility. We explain when each approach should and should not be used. The presentation of greatest accuracy credibility theory starts with a review of (exact) Bayesian credibility and then moves to the Buhlmann-Straub model. Estimators of the structure parameters are discussed. Examples are presented to illustrate the concepts. Finally, the hierarchical credibility and crossed classification credibility models are presented.

Outlier Analysis Of Annual Retail Price Inflation: A Cross-Country Study, Wai-Sum Chan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Wilkie's stochastic investment model and its variants have been increasingly applied by actuaries around the world to actuarial modeling and simulation. This paper performs time series outlier analysis on retail price inflation, which is the driving force of Wilkie's composite model. The data come from four developed countries: the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and Australia. The fit of the model is significantly improved after the adjustment of outliers. The analysis also identifies exogenous events that have intervened in the inflation dynamics. An example is given to demonstrate the importance of outlier analysis on stochastic simulation. Finally, inflation trends …

Stability Of Representative Crediting Rate Scenarios Under Monte Carlo Simulations, Sarah L.M. Christiansen, Kelley Buchacker

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We develop a methodology to ensure that a Monte Carlo simulation of the distribution of the primary rates, used for determining an interest crediting rate, is stable regardless of the initial random number seed. We consider the implications of the use of antithetic random normal deviates upon the scenario process and modifications to the candidate list and the choice function within the representative process. It is shown that the use of antithetic random deviates alone does not have a statistically significant effect on our results. The other two modifications (candidate selection algorithm and choice function) are statistically significant. Furthermore, the …

An Analysis Of Australian Pensioner Mortality By Pre-Retirement Income, David Knox, Andrew Tomlin

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The existence of a relationship between an individual's socioeconomic status and his or her mortality is often accepted, but it is difficult to measure this relationship objectively. This study analyses the relationship between an individual's final salary immediately prior to retirement and mortality rates during retirement. The data used are taken from a large Australian public sector pension plan. A strong inverse relationship is found, which decreases with age. Some of the implications of these results for individual annuity markets and public pension policy are discussed.

A Frailty Model For Projection Of Human Mortality Improvements, Shaun S. Wang, Robert L. Brown

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Based on the everyday observations that individual human beings vary significantly in their capacity to combat death, we adopt a so-called frailty model of human mortality. This frailty model assumes that each individual in a given population is endowed with his or her own frailty index, r, which remains constant for life. In addition, we assume that the individual's force of mortality (hazard rate function) at age x, Ux(r), satisfies Ux(r) = rUx where Ux is the population's base force of mortality at age x. Given the probability distribution of the frailty index among the newborns in the population, an …

Actuarial Techniques In Risk Pricing And Cash Flow Analysis For U.K. Bank Loans, Philip Booth, Duncan E.P. Walsh

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A cash flow model is developed to set the price for a loan to a borrower with known risks. Similarities are noted between this model and those used for profit testing in life insurance. We emphasize aspects that reasonably can be treated in several ways and also indicate where the cash flow model differs from the pricing methods usually employed in bank lending. The sensitivity of interest rates to various parameters of the model such as the length of loan and the expected default rate is examined. Also, we examine how features of loans, including cash back and early repayments, …

Derivatives, Corporate Hedging, And Shareholder Wealth: Modigliani-Miller Forty Years Later, Kimberly D. Krawiec

Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 6, Nos. 1 And 2, 1998, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES

Principles and Application of Credibility • Vincent Goulet

Actuarial Techniques in Risk Pricing and Cash Flow Analysis for U.K. Bank Loans • Philip Booth and Duncan E.P. Walsh

Stability of Representative Crediting Rate Scenarios Under Monte Carlo Simulations • Sarah L.M. Christiansen and Kelley Buchacker

Outlier Analysis of Annual Retail Price Inflation: A Cross-Country Study • Wai-Sum Cha

An Analysis of Australian Pensioner Mortality by Pre-Retirement Income • David Knox and Andrew Tomlin

Using Parametric Statistical Models to Estimate Mortality Structure: The Case of Taiwan • Shih-Chieh Chang

A Frailty Model for Projection of Human Mortality Improvements • Shaun …

Recent Developments In Modern Finance, Subroto Roy

IIMB Management Review

While it has become commonplace to speak of whirlwind changes in global financial markets, the lay investor is often faced with mysterious new terms without being given an adequate description of the concepts behind them. An attempt has been made to demystify some of the myths and mysteries connected with these developments.

Does Medicare Eligibility Affect Retirement?, Brigitte C. Madrian, Nancy Dean Beaulieu

Faculty Publications

Concern over the lack of portability associated with employer-provided health insurance has precipitated a recent flurry of research activity on the effects of health insurance on labor market outcomes. Several estimates suggest that the costs associated with changing doctors and losing coverage for preexisting conditions are sufficient to deter individuals from changing jobs. These costs may be particularly important for older individuals contemplating retirement because a departure from the labor force may involve not only a change in doctors or lack of coverage for preexisting conditions but a complete loss of access to employer-provided group health insurance.

Economic Valuation Models For Insurers, David F. Babbel, Craig B. Merrill

Faculty Publications

Recently much attention has been given to the approaches insurers undertake in valuing their liabilities and assets. For example, in 1994 the American Academy of Actuaries created a Fair Valuation of Liabilities Task Force to address the issue [see Doll et al. (1998), Reitano (1997), Babbel (1997, 1998b), Babbel and Merrill (1996), and Merrill (1997)]. In 1997, the Academy established a Valuation Law Task Force and a Valuation Tools Working Group to investigate the various valuation approaches extant and to recommend the models best suited to the task.

Much of the literature on valuation has focused on the strengths and …

Is Sound Just Noise, Joshua D. Coval, Tyler Shumway

Faculty Publications

This paper analyzes the information content of the ambient noise level in the Chicago Board of Trade's 30-year Treasury Bond futures trading pit. Controlling for a variety of other variables, including lagged price changes, trading volumes, and news announcements, we find that the sound level conveys information which is highly economically and statistically significant. In particular, we find increases in the sound level precede periods of high price volatility and increased trading volumes. Increases in the sound level also presage the placement of block trades and relative increases in customer-driven trading. Our results add to our understanding of the market …

Labor Market Responses To Rising Health Insurance Costs: Evidence On Hours Worked, David M. Cutler, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

Increases in the cost of providing health insurance must have some effect on labor markets, either in lower wages, changes in the composition of employment, or both. Despite a presumption that most of this effect will be in the fonn of lower wages, we document in this paper a significant effect on work hours as well. Using data from the CPS and the SIPP, we show that rising health insurance costs over the 1980s increased the hours worked of those with health insurance by up to 3 percent. We argue that this occurs because health insurance is a fixed cost, …

Selecting A Credit Card, Elizabeth Gorham, Marsha Goetting

All Current Publications

No abstract provided.

Health Insurance Portability: The Consequences Of Cobra, Brigitte C. Madrian

Faculty Publications

THE RESPONSE OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION and Congress to the failed attempt at fundamental health care reform in 1993 has been a series of incremental measures that expand the government’s role in the health care system. One recent initiative, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA), restricts the ability of insurers to exclude preexisting medical conditions from insurance coverage. It also requires insurance companies to issue or renew coverage for individuals who have been insured but who no longer have access to group health insurance coverage. Those provisions are intended to address the issue of health insurance …

Three Essays On European Union Advances Toward A Single Currency And Its Implications For Business And Investors, Charlotte Anne Bond

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

The first chapter examines the changes in various European currencies' exchange rates through the time period 1980 through 1997. Specifically, we are interested to determine if there is any affect to the volatility of these exchange rates and specific events related to the advancement of European Unification. In order to move to a single currency it is imperative that the separate currencies become less volatile to facilitate the move to a single currency. In this study, we examine whether this is the case and discuss which currencies appear to display this behavior. It is observed that of the 14 currencies …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements, which are designed for legal and administrative purposes rather than economic analysis. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. However, due to problems with imprecise definitions, improper classification, inadequate sectorization, inaccuracies, irregular valuation procedures, and errors in data compilation, major revisions were made. The Computer Services Department generates summary and detailed analytical balance sheets based on the end-month BANKOS 302 of the CBN, Lagos branch. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. …

In-Touch - December 1997, Nova Southeastern University

NSU Digital: In-Touch

No abstract provided.

Stock Market And Macroeconomic Policies: New Evidence For The Pacific Basin Countries, Unro Lee

Eberhardt School of Business Faculty Articles

This article investigates whether the stock markets of the Pacific Basin countries of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are informationally efficient with respect to macroeconomic policies. Granger causality tests are utilized in the context of a Vector Error Correction Model to test the relationship between aggregate stock prices and monetary and fiscal policies. The findings indicate that the stock markets of all four countries are not efficient with respect to both macroeconomic policies. These findings are different from those of other articles focusing on major industrialized countries. Rejection of market efficiency may be attributed to the unique structure …

Accounting For Biases In Black-Scholes, David Backus, Silverio Foresi, Kai Li, Liuren Wu

CRIF Working Paper series

Prices of currency options commonly deffer from the Black-Scholes formula along two dimensions: implied volatilities vary by strike price (volatility smiles) and maturity (implied volatility of at-the-money options increases, on average, with maturity). We account for both using Gram-Charlier expansions to approximate the conditional distribution of the logarithm of the price of the underlying security. In this setting, volatility is approximately a quadratic function of moneyness, a result we use to infer skewness and kurtosis from volatility smiles. Evidence suggests that both kurtosis in currency prices and biases in Black-Scholes option prices decline with maturity.

Ua3/9/2 Wku Institutional Review, James L. Fisher, Ltd.

WKU Administration Documents

Institutional review conducted during Barbara Burch's interim presidency of WKU and presidential search.

Western Kentucky is a good university essentially trapped in time and therefore unable to change significantly. Until these constraints are eliminated or modified, the University will not be able to effectively address major issues of focus, enrollment, organization, personnel, curriculum, governance, athletics, planning and increased public and private support. Rather, it will continue to drift with occasional peripheral and cosmetic changes, none of which will be sufficient to successfully relate to Kentucky's new plan for post-secondary education.

The problems that prevent significant institutional transformation are several, but …

Breaking Trends And The Money-Output Correlation, David Fernandez

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the impact on the money-output correlation of a univariate specification that allows time series to be characterized as stationary around a broken trend function. Though pretesting suggests that U.S. real output (industrial production) can be described as broken-trend stationary, this result has only limited impact on the money-output correlation. Before 1985 there is a strong Granger causal relationship between money and broken-detrended output (hut not first-differenced output), even when different short-term interest rates are used as regressors. However, after 1985 this relationship weakens significantly, whether or not one determines that output has a unit root.