Business Commons^™

Comparative Analysis On The Cost Of Oversight For The New National Security Space Acquisition Policy- A Delphi Method Approach, Darrin L. Dereus

Theses and Dissertations

For the past 50 years, the military's use of space for our national defense has increased exponentially. The use of space has increased so much that recent events have led to the approval for most space Major Defense Acquisition Programs to fall under their own process of oversight to track and monitor these programs. The largest reason for this change is due to the difference in spending profiles and current acquisition regulations that are not structured to meet these space expenditure plans. The key problem is no one knows, for sure, how much the oversight process actually costs and if …

Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price …

Equity Style Returns And Institutional Investor Flows, Kenneth A. Froot, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores institutional investor trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style behavior, we assign equities to deciles in each of five style dimensions: size, value/growth, cyclical/defensive, sector, and country. We find, first, strong evidence that investors organize and trade stocks across style-driven lines. This appears true for groupings both strongly and weakly related to fundamentals (e.g., industry orcountry groupings versus size or value/growth deciles). Second, the positive linkage between flows and returns …

The Effect Of Taxes On The Pricing Of Defaultable Debt, Kian Guan Lim, Fenghua Song, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Empirical studies have documented the dependence of corporate credit spreads on default risk, equity premiums, and taxes. However, taxes have previously not been incorporated into reduced-form credit risk models. Therefore, we first extend the existing literature by considering a default intensity that depends on taxes as well as the default-free short rate and a market index. Consequently, we establish a theoretical basis to explain previous empirical findings regarding the significant impact of taxation on defaultable bond prices. Unlike previous models, tax implications for defaultable debt cannot be constructed from a sum of tax effects on zero coupon bonds. Our empirical …

Deflationary Dynamics In Hong Kong: Evidence From Linear Andneural Network Regime Switching Models, Paul D. Mcnelis, Carrie K.C. Chan

CRIF Seminar series

This paper examines deflationary dynamics in Hong Kong with a linear and a nonlinear neural-network regime-switching (NNRS) model. The NNRS model is superior to the linear model in terms of in-sample specification tests as well as out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. As befitting a small and highly open economy, the most important variables affecting inflation and deflation turn out to be the growth rates of import prices and wealth (captured by the rates of growth of residential property prices). The NNRS model indicates that the likelihood of moving out of deflation has been steadily increasing.

Mortgage Debt: The Good News, Donna M. Dudney, Manford Peterson, Thomas S. Zorn

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

Executive Summary
• The usual advice given to the public by financial planners and the popular press is that less debt is better and in particular owning your own house outright is a desirable goal.
• We show that this advice is often wrong because mortgage debt acts as an inflation hedge. Mortgage debt also has a valuable refinancing option in case interest rates fall and an abandonment option if the value of the property declines.
• Mortgage debt is often seen simply as necessary because of people’s limited financial assets. Specifically, people can purchase a home only if they …

Journal Of Actuarial Practice, Volume 11, 2004, Colin Ramsay , Editor

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

ARTICLES (the entire volume)

Product Innovation in Financial Services: A Survey • Christopher O'Brien 5

Phased Retirement for Defined Benefit Plan Participants • Patricia L. Scahill and Jonathan Barry Forman . 43

The Actuarial Value of Life Insurance Backdating • James M Carson and Krzysztof M Ostaszewski . 63

Decision Tree Analysis of Terminated Life Insurance Policies • Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, and Hian Chye Koh . 79

A Comparative Study of Parametric and Nonparametric Estimators of Old-Age Mortality in Sweden • Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, and Kitt Skovsø Petersen 103

Estimation of Complete …

Indiana State University Financial Report 2004, Indiana State University

Financial Reports

No abstract provided.

The Role Of U.S. Trading In Pricing Internationally Cross-Listed Stocks, Joachim Grammig, Michael Melvin, Christian Schlag

CRIF Seminar series

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Asset Allocation And Active Management On Total Return Of Managed Funds, Florian Halili

Business and Economics Honors Papers

Portfolio managers are charged with maximizing returns for a given level of risk. There are practical problems that arise in creating an efficient portfolio and maintaining a target level of risk and return. This paper will identify two important factors that a manager needs to address in creating and managing a portfolio. The first step in creating a portfolio should be the establishment of the structure of the portfolio or the portfolio policy, what asset classes it holds and in what proportions. The structure of the portfolio is the main factor that shows how a portfolio is exposed to risk. …

Land For Maine's Future Program: Increasing The Return On A Sound Public Investment, Richard Barringer, Hugh Coxe, Jack Kartez, Catherine Reilly, Jonathan Rubin

Economics and Finance

Maine is nowhere a more special place than in the quality of its landscape and the traditions of its land use. Among the mo st privately-owned of all the states, Maine’s natural diversity and beauty combine with its traditions of resource stewardship, open access, and appreciation of nature to distinguish it in the public mind and national imagination. In recent decades, however, these traditions have come under assault from the forces of economic and social change; and the people of Maine have responded. In 1986, Governor Joseph Brennan’s Special Commission on Outdoor Recreation recognized the growing threats to Maine’s natur …

2003-2004 Financial Summary, Morehead State University. Budget & Financial Planning Office.

Morehead State University Financial Summaries Archive

2003-2004 Financial Summary of Morehead State University.

Journal Of Actuarial Practice - Volume 11 (2004) - Contents And Masthead

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Contents

Editorial Policy: Topics suitable for this journal include AIDS, annuity products, asset-liability matching, cash-flow testing, casualty rate making, credibility theory, credit insurance, disability insurance, expense analysis, experience studies, FASB issues, financial reporting, group insurance, health insurance, individual risk taking, insurance regulations, international issues, investments, liability insurance, loss reserves, marketing, pensions, pricing issues, product development, reinsurance, reserving issues, risk-based capital, risk theory, social insurance, solvency issues, taxation, valuation issues, and workers' compensation

Review Process

Editor - Colin Ramsay, University of Nebraska

Associate Editors: Robert Brown, University of Waterloo ○ Cecil Bykerk, Mutual of Omaha ○ Ruy Cardoso, …

Rapid Calculation Of The Price Of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit Ratchet Options Embedded In Annuities, Eric R. Ulm

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper presents a new method of obtaining quick and accurate values and deltas for discrete look back options using Taylor series expansions. This method is applied to the case of ratchet guaranteed minimum death benefits attached to annuity contracts, and the method is extended to include annuities where a fixed fund is attached to the variable account. Finally, both the speed and the accuracy of the method are compared to Monte Carlo simulation and the exact analytic solution. The Taylor expansion method is shown to be faster and, in most cases, more accurate than the alternative methods.

Approximating The Bias And Variance Of Chain Ladder Estimates Under A Compound Poisson Model, Janagan Yogaranpan, Sue Clarke, Shauna Ferris, John Pollard

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We consider the problem of estimating the outstanding claims produced by a homogeneous general insurance portfolio. The specific model considered in this paper is one where the number of claims in any loss period follows a Poisson distribution, settlement delays follow the same multinomial distribution, and settlements are single lump sums that are independent identically distributed random variables. Simulations using this model reveal that the development ratios and the outstanding claims estimates produced using the chain ladder method are positively biased. We obtain approximate formulas for the biases using Taylor series expansions of the random variables about their means. The …

Decision Tree Analysis Of Terminated Life Insurance Policies, Robert Keng Heong Lian, Yuan Wu, Hian Chye Koh

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Statistical methods such as regression and survival analysis have traditionally been used to investigate the factors affecting the duration of terminated life insurance policies. This study explores a different approach: it uses a more recently developed data mining technique called decision trees. By sequentially partitioning the data to maximize differences in the dependent variable (duration in this study), the decision trees technique is good at identifying data segments with significant differences in the dependent variable. This identification can be useful when a company is trying to understand the factors driving or associated with the termination of life insurance policies. Decision …

A Comparative Study Of Parametric And Nonparametric Estimators Of Old-Age Mortality In Sweden, Peter Fledelius, Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, Kitt Skovso Petersen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

A recent study of Swedish old-age mortality used a modified GompertzMakeham model with a linear hazard for the force of mortality. We propose an alternative model using smooth two-dimensional kernel hazard estimators and introduce a new estimator based on the multiplicative bias correction for the multivariate marker dependent hazard. The multiplicative bias correction appears to have great potential for estimating mortality rates at the highest ages. We also observe that mortality continues to increase at an exponential rate even in old-age.

Phased Retirement For Defined Benefit Plan Participants, Patricia L. Scahill, Jonathan Barry Forman

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

The demographic makeup of the U.S. workforce is changing. The population between ages SS and 64 is projected to increase significantly by 2020, but employment rates for this age group have not been increasing. Employers will likely need to encourage critical employees in this age group to delay retirement. Phased retirement is one tool for delaying retirement, while also not continuing full-time employment, so it can be a compromise for employers and employees. Both Congress and two administrative agencies have begun to consider changes in pension laws and regulations that would be needed to accommodate phased retirement for employers who …

The Actuarial Value Of Life Insurance Backdating, James M. Carson, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Backdating is a common (and legal) practice in the U.S. whereby a life insurance contract bears a policy date that is prior to the actual application date. This practice often results in the opportunity for some insureds to reduce the annual premium paid. Using cash flow projections and U.S. mortality, lapse, and interest rate data, we provide a model of the actuarial value of term life insurance backdating. Results indicate that the benefits to the applicant of backdating a term life insurance policy increase as the applicant age (and hence premium) increases. Increasing mortality, lapse, and interest rates, as well …

Credibility Theory And Geometry, Elias S.W. Shiu, Fuk Yum Sing

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

We present a geometric approach to studying greatest accuracy credibility theory. Our main tool is the concept of orthogonal projections. We show, for example, that to determine the Buhlmann credibility premium is to find the coefficients of the minimum-norm vector in an affine space spanned by certain orthogonal random variables. Our approach is illustrated by deriving various common credibility formulas. Several equivalent forms of the credibility factor Z are derived by means of similar triangles.

Product Innovation In Financial Services: A Survey, Christopher O'Brien

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

This paper considers product innovation in insurance and other financial services, an area where actuaries have an important role. It considers the proposition that there is no unique formula for success and that what works well in one situation may not work well in another. It first examines the sources of ideas for new products and, in particular, the role played by consumers, which is generally regarded as weak. It then looks at how ideas are implemented, with particular importance attributed to cross-functional teams and the formality of the product development process. Then it considers how success is measured (with …

Estimation Of Complete Period Life Tables For Singaporeans, Siu-Hang Li, Wai-Sum Chan

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993–2006)

Complete period life tables, with death rates for every year of age, are not available in Singapore. This study constructs such tables for Singaporeans from the limited mortality information contained in the abridged life tables provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics. We find that linear interpolation, Whittaker graduation, and the Coale-Kisker method together can generate complete life tables that are smooth and continuous. The validity of the complete life tables generated by our method is further confirmed by (1) comparing the life expectancies calculated from our estimated life tables with those provided by the Singapore Department of Statistics, and …

Mutual Fund Tournaments: Evidence From Global And International Funds, Michael R. Melton, Thomas S. Zorn, Richard A. Defusco

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

For a sample of global and international equity mutual funds, we test the proposition that managers likely to end up as “losers” manipulate fund risk differently from interim winners. In contrast with Brown, Harlow, and Starks (1996) who found robust support for the tournament model, we found no evidence of tournament like behavior for international and global mutual funds. A possible explanation of this behavior is that investors in these funds are primarily seeking diversification and therefore are less sensitive to relative performance.

An Examination Of The Role Of Local Authorities In Local Sport Provision And The Implications For Their Role In The Local Sports Partnership Initiative, Dara Sugrue

Theses

The broad aim of this study is to analyse the current role of Irish local authorities in relation to the provision of local sport. Particular emphasis is placed on the potential contribution of Irish local authorities to the Local Sports Partnership initiative. The research considers how the local authorities need to evolve if their role within such a partnership arrangement is to be optimised.

A variety of methods were employed to analyse the prevailing and future role of the local authorities in relation to local sports development. These included a questionnaire, semi-structured interviews, analysis of certain local authority documentation and …

Employee Investment Decisions About Company Stock, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, Andrew Metrick

Faculty Publications

Recent high-profile cases have illustrated the dangers of employee investment in company stock. These debacles are unlikely to be the last ones, or even the most severe. Companies with more than 50 percent of retirement assets in company stock are common, and fractions over 80 percent continue to prevail at such large companies as Procter & Gamble, Anheuser- Busch, and Pfizer.¹

The concentration of retirement wealth in company stock is a clear violation of diversification principles. Recently, several studies have quantified the economic costs of this concentration. Muelbroek (2002) uses a Sharperatio approach and finds that the average diversification …

Business Week Board Rankings And Subsequent Stock Returns, Steven D. Dolvin

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Recent corporate bankruptcies have placed renewed focus on the role of a firm's board of directors; therefore, I study rankings of the best and worst boards of directors as published by Business Week. Similar to prior studies examining survey data, I find that the portion of the rankings determined via investment manager survey is biased by the "halo effect." However, I also find that the rankings as a whole, and particularly the portion calculated via quantitative analysis, do provide information that can be used in a trading strategy capable of generating positive abnormal returns, thereby implying that board strength does …

Risk Sharing And The Market For Corporate Control: A Case For Golden Parachutes, Atreya Chakraborty

Accounting and Finance Faculty Publication Series

The predictability of security returns has received considerable attention in the literature, and yet the predictability of bond returns beyond the US markets has remained far less explored. Here we plan to remedy the shortcoming, and in that effort we analyse the ability of several predetermined information variables in predicting bond returns in the European market. We test if variables, commonly used for that matter in the context of other markets (such as inverse relative wealth, term spread, real bond yield and a January dummy) are also useful predictors of European bond returns. Due to some particularities of the sample …

Do Outside Blockholders Influence Corporate Governance Practices?, Sarah Peck

Finance Faculty Research and Publications

This study investigates whether block acquisitions lead to changes in board and CEO compensation characteristics and finds that block purchasers do not play a significant role in improving the firm’s governance practices. However, the majority of professional investors have sold their block within a year, suggesting that they do not own their stock long enough to alter governance policies nor to benefit from such changes. For the smaller number of firms where a new blockholder maintains their investment for more than a year, the use of equity based CEO compensation increases while the use of cash based compensation decreases.

The Impact Of Hardening In The Homeowner's Insurance Market On Ohio Residential Real Estate Brokerage Markets, Joseph Coleman, James E. Larsen

Finance and Financial Services Faculty Publication

A recently released study sponsored by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) documents hardening in the homeowner’s insurance market nationwide; i.e., property insurance premiums have increased sharply and coverage availability has often been limited. The NAR study did not, however, investigate the impact of this hardening on residential real estate transactions, nor did it include an examination of the transactional impact resulting from the increasing propensity of insurance companies to require property modifications as a condition of issuing a policy. In the present study, survey data collected from 406 members of the Ohio Association of REALTORS® (OAR) is used to …

Shareholder Proxy Access To The Ballot: What Will Be The Implications Of The Sec's Proposed Shareholder Access Rule If It Is Adopted From Governance, Implementation And A Public Perspective?, Bryan J. Shea

Seton Hall University Dissertations and Theses (ETDs)

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