Business Commons^™

Industry Return Predictability: A Machine Learning Approach, David E. Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Jun Tu, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, the authors use machine learning tools to analyze industry return predictability based on the information in lagged industry returns. Controlling for post-selection inference and multiple testing, they find significant in-sample evidence of industry return predictability. Lagged returns for the financial sector and commodity- and material-producing industries exhibit widespread predictive ability, consistent with the gradual diffusion of information across economically linked industries. Out-of-sample industry return forecasts that incorporate the information in lagged industry returns are economically valuable: Controlling for systematic risk using leading multifactor models from the literature, an industry-rotation portfolio that goes long (short) industries with the …

Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, And Firms Information Environment, Jarrad Harford, Feng Jiang, Rong Wang, Fei Xie

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Analysts strategically allocate more effort to portfolio firms that are relatively more important to their careers. Thus, the other firms the analysts cover indirectly affect a firm’s information environment. Controlling for analyst and firm characteristics, we find that an analyst makes more accurate, frequent, and informative earnings forecasts and recommendations for firms ranked higher within her portfolio based on proxies for importance to institutions. A firm’s relative rank widely varies across analysts, but its information environment improves when a larger proportion of analysts consider it to be relatively important. Analysts experience more favorable career outcomes when strategically allocating their efforts.

Biclustering Via Mixtures Of Regression Models, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Biclustering of observations and the variables is of interest in many scientific disciplines. In a single set of data matrix it is handled through the singular value decomposition. Here we deal with two sets of variables: response and predictor sets. We model the joint relationship via regression models and then apply SVD on the coefficient matrix. The sparseness condition is introduced via Group Lasso. The approach discussed here is quite general and is illustrated with an example from Finance.

Are Bond Ratings Informative? Evidence From Regulatory Regime Changes, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh, Yen Teik Lee, Lisa Zongfei Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Dodd–Frank Act (Section 939B) enacted in 2010 repealed the exemption of credit rating agencies (CRAs) from Regulation Fair Disclosure. Testing whether CRAs continue to provide new information to the market after the repeal, the authors find that the significant prerepeal stock price responses to rating changes disappear after the regime change. Bond price reactions, however, remain significant. These results are even more significant at the investment–speculative boundary. Evidence suggests that CRAs served as a conduit for transmitting private information before the repeal and that the continued bond price reactions are likely due to regulations favoring higher-rated bonds.

Essays On Bank Deposit Flows And Deposit Rates As A Market Disciplining Mechanism, Prateek Sharma

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Deposits are the single largest source of funding for banks and are thus key to the stability of the banking system. Deposit flows and deposit rates are two mechanisms through which depositors discipline banks from excessive risk taking thus keeping the banking system stable.

In Chapter 1, I examine aggregate deposit inflows, outflows, and the reallocation of deposits in the banking system to further our understanding of banking stability. I find that on average deposit inflows are nearly three times larger and twice more volatile than outflows. Deposit flows vary with business cycles and market conditions, across deposit types, and …

Analyzing The Efficiency Of Response To News Regarding Legalization Of Sports Wagering, Kevin Krieger, Justin L. Davis

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A landmark decision (Murphy v. NCAA) by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) in 2018 ruled the federal government could not prohibit states from allowing sports wagering. While the implications of this decision are far reaching at both an industry and societal level, our study assesses the market response to information available throughout the various phases leading up to this decision by SCOTUS. The timeline of events preceding the SCOTUS decision is tracked, and stock performances of relevant, publicly traded firms are analyzed across three inflection points. Findings suggest the market failed to adequately acknowledge key …

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Essays In International Corporate Finance, Patrick M. Stanton

Doctoral Dissertations

International corporate finance has greatly expanded with the increased globalization and led to many new research topics. In this dissertation, I examine two distinct international finance topics; (i) determinants of corporate tax inversion and the effects ex-post; and (ii) determinants of for-profit microfinance institutions and financial and social performance.

In Chapter 1, I study corporate tax inversion which is a reorganization by which a domestic firm changes its tax-domicile from the United States to a foreign country with a lower corporate tax rate. In 2014 alone, U.S. public companies valued at over half a trillion dollars announced their intention to …

Volatility Interruptions, Idiosyncratic Risk, And Stock Return, Saad A. Alsunbul

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of implementing the static and dynamic volatility interruption rule on idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns in Nasdaq Stockholm. Using EGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the conditional idiosyncratic volatility, we find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns increase as stock prices hit the upper static or dynamic volatility interruption limits. Conversely, we find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns decrease as stock prices hit the lower static or dynamic volatility interruption limit. We also find that the conditional idiosyncratic volatility is higher when stock prices reach …

Impact Of Relative Liquidity Of Stocks And Bonds On The Financing And Investment Decisions Of A Firm, Sohale Altamimi

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay investigates if market illiquidity is a significant determinant of capital structure decisions. We hypothesize that firms would likely compare the illiquidity of two sources of external funding at a given point in time and issue the one with lower illiquidity. Therefore, if the level of illiquidity is a key driver of firms’ capital structure decisions in that year, the higher the level of stocks illiquidity, the more of its financing needs are satisfied by the issuance of debt, and the higher the level of bonds illiquidity, the less of its financing …

Financial Regulation, Banking, And Sovereign Debt, Rhada Boujlil

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

The dissertation consists of two essays. In the first essay we study the efficiency of banks during the period of (2000-2017) that witnessed a fierce financial crisis in the light of the regulatory acts enacted in response to the crisis (Basel III 2010). We investigate the combined impact of compliance with Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, common equity Tier 1, and leverage requirements on bank operating efficiency. We measure operational efficiency of 68 insured, U.S. federally and state-chartered, commercial banks, with consolidated assets of $15 billion or more, over a sampling period of 18 years. We seek to identify …

Valuation Of Ani Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Carmen Borgen

Dissertations, Theses, and Projects

In depth valuation and analysis of ANI Pharmaceuticals using qualitative and quantitative data.

Financial Analysis And Valuation Of Vista Outdoor, Inc, Cyrille Litche

Dissertations, Theses, and Projects

This report presents the financial analysis of Vista Outdoor Inc, a Minnesota based company that operates through the Outdoor Products and Shooting Sports segments. The purpose of this analysis is to provide a valuation of the company based on recent financial data and to make an investment recommendation based on a specific stock closing date.

Financial Analysis Of Otter Tail Corporation, Shawn Tykwinski

Dissertations, Theses, and Projects

Otter Tail is a holding company with 5 subsidiaries residing in three different business segments: electric, which includes the production, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy; manufacturing, which consists of businesses in the manufacturing contract machining, metal parts stamping, fabrication and painting, and production of material and handling trays and horticultural containers; and plastics, which consists of businesses producing polyvinyl chloride pipe. The electric segment provided electricity to more than 130,000 customers in western Minnesota, eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota. The investment recommendation given in this report was based on a Corporate Valuation Model that discounts free …

Financial Analysis And Valuation Of Christopher And Banks Corp.,, Mona Barhouma

Dissertations, Theses, and Projects

This project report entitled to “Financial Analysis and Valuation of Christopher and Banks Corporation.” The main objective of the study is to analyze the financial position of the company for the past five years from 2014 to 2018, in contrast to, its main peer company “Chico’s Inc.,” and to study a 5-year stock price performance as of March 29,2019. The historical financial data were collected from the company’s annual 10 ks. The balance sheet, Income Statement, and Cash Flow Statement are forecasted for the next four years from 2020 to 2023. Financial metric used to measure the financial performance of …

Exchange-Traded Funds: The Unknown Investment Opportunity, Thomas K. Leisher

Undergraduate Economic Review

Actively managed mutual funds are some of the most invested in investment vehicles in the modern era. However, it is a great misunderstanding of their performance relative to their passively managed exchange-traded funds. Actively managed mutual funds fail to outperform their respective benchmarks due to a variety of reasons including market efficiency, timing, and tax consequences. These findings hold true in both the long-term and short-term for equities and fixed income funds. A self-conducted survey was also conducted in order to find the knowledge and opinions of college students on ETFs and mutual funds.

How Will I Afford It? Financial Aid And Its Impact On Higher Education: Evidence From The State Of Mississippi, Daria Herasymova

Honors Theses

The cost of higher education, in real terms, doubled in the last twenty years, increasing faster than medical costs, the consumer price index and housing. In 1987, U.S. Secretary of Education, William J. Bennett, in the New York Times article, raised the concern that financial aid has unintended consequences of enabling higher education institution to increase tuition. In this paper, through collection of data and literature review, I examine the drivers behind the rising cost of higher education and test whether the postsecondary institutions in the state of Mississippi exhibit behavior, consistent with the Bennett Hypothesis. Using fixed-effects regression model, …

An Investigation Of Personal Financial Literacy Education, James R. Penner, Joshua D. Spizman

Honors Thesis

A lack of financial literacy for many people in the United States is a prominent problem that has largely gone unaddressed, but one that can have devastating results. Currently, 43% of student loan borrowers are not making payments and 33% of American adults have $0 saved for retirement (Pascarella 2-4). These alarming statistics amid a strong economic environment highlight the negative affects a lack of financial literacy can have. Higher education at LMU is geared towards providing students an education of the whole person to enable them to become better people. This research investigates whether or not LMU prepares students …

Economic And Social Benefits Of Gender Parity In Employment And Education, Elizabeth Weathersby

Honors Theses

This thesis seeks to examine the ways in which women are disadvantaged in their participation in formal employment and participation and attainment in education relative to men across the world. Furthermore, this analysis examines the economic impacts of inequalities in education and employment at a macroeconomic level and on an individual level. Most data is compiled from various Non-Governmental Organizations that fund and orchestrate global research on gender equality. The results of this research consistently indicate that women continue to face systematic disadvantages in employment, wages, occupation, upward mobility in occupations, hours worked, entrepreneurship, burden of unpaid work, educational attainment, …

Portfolio Optimization Methods: The Mean-Variance Approach And The Bayesian Approach, Hoang Nguyen

Honors Theses

This thesis is a discussion on the mean-variance approach to portfolio optimization and an introduction of the Bayesian approach, which is designed to solve certain limitations of the classical mean-variance analysis. The primary goal of portfolio optimization is to achieve the maximum return from investment given a certain level of risk. The mean-variance approach, introduced by Harry Markowitz, sought to solve this optimization problem by analyzing the means and variances of a certain collection of stocks. However, due to its simplicity, the mean-variance approach is subject to various limitations. In this paper, we seek to solve some of these limitations …

Establishing Cryptocurrency Equilibria Through Game Theory, Carey Caginalp, Gunduz Caginalp

ESI Publications

We utilize optimization methods to determine equilibria of cryptocurrencies. A core group, the wealthy, fears the loss of assets that can be seized by a government. Volatility may be influenced by speculators. The wealthy must divide their assets between the home currency and the cryptocurrency, while the government decides the probability of seizing a fraction the assets of this group. We establish conditions for existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibria. Also examined is the separate timescale problem in which the government policy cannot be reversed, while the wealthy can adjust their allocation in reaction to the government’s designation of probability.

Esg Rating And Ownership Structure In U.S. Firms, Keondo Park

CURCE Annual Undergraduate Conference

Given the rising interest in the relationship between Environmental, Social and Governance rating (ESG) and its components, this paper investigates the relationship between insider/institutional ownership structure, ESG ratings and financial performance of the firm, using 398 companies in U.S. 2017 obtained from Bloomberg. This paper entails cross-sectional analysis of ESG rating and its components in 10 sectors (Communication, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Health Care, Industrials, Materials, Technology, and Utilities) and Return on Asset as a matrix for financial performance. The results suggest that ESG rating and performance of the firm is positively and significantly associated, except environmental score. …

Innovation: The Determinant Of Success In Software., Oksana Pawlush

CURCE Annual Undergraduate Conference

This study examines the determinants of performance in the U.S. software sector. The emergence of the software industry has been a world changing phenomenon and created a highly competitive market and a profitable investment field. Using panel regression analysis on a sample of 730 U.S. based software firms spanning the period from 1995 to 2017, this study finds that intangible assets and staff expenses have a statistically significant positive impact on the performance of software companies, as measured by their return on assets and return on equity, respectively.

Corporate Deleveraging And Financial Flexibility, Dan Dreher

CURCE Annual Undergraduate Conference

Most firms tend to deleverage from the historical peak market-leverage (ML) ratios to near-zero ML while also insisting on growing and maintaining high cash balances. Among 424 publicly traded non United States companies that are based in developed countries that are not financial nor industrial firms with five or more years post peak ML data, the median ML at the peak is

0.369 and 0.021 at the subsequent trough. The median cash / total assets ratio rises from 0.046 to

0.080, respectively during the same period. These findings support theories in which firms deleverage from peak ML to restore ample …

Evaluating An Mlb General Manager’S Bang For Their Buck, Devin Mathura

Honors College Theses

With my passion for baseball, I decided to calculate the value of each player on an MLB active roster and determine whether they are underpaid or overpaid. I then used that information to evaluate and rank how efficient each MLB general manager utilizes their money on players. With the luxury tax becoming more of an issue for teams with high payrolls, there has been an emphasis on general managers to construct a team that will be highly competitive at a reasonably low price. In my report, I imported data that reflected the position for each player as well as their …

The Introduction Of Bitcoin Futures: An Examination Of Volatility And Potential Spillover Effects, Benjamin M. Blau, Ryan J. Whitby

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Theory in Stein (1987) suggests that introducing derivative contracts, such as futures, can destabilize underlying asset prices if the contracts attract enough speculative traders. This paper examines how the introduction of Bitcoin futures influences the underlying Bitcoin market. Consistent with Stein (1987), we find that that Bitcoin's volatility increases significantly during the post-introduction period. Perhaps more importantly, however, we observe significant spillover effects into related markets. For instance, in other cryptocurrencies, the increase in volatility in these markets is greater than the post-introduction increase in Bitcoin.

Failure To Launch?: Advancing The Case For Financial Literacy Interventions In Postsecondary Education, Cathleen Snyder

Dissertations, 2014-2019

For college undergraduates, the thought of managing money is often new, exciting, and terrifying in the same breath. Some students have learned well from their parental and prior academic influences, and yet others may be overwhelmed by a lack of those same resources. As postsecondary institutions endeavor to level the proverbial playing field, helping college graduates launch into meaningful, financially independent lives, it begs additional consideration on the intervention methods that might be most impactful.

This study examined a for-credit, curriculum-based intervention specific to personal finance topics. It attempted to answer several key questions: How knowledgeable are students relative to …

Small Data, Small Steps: Lessons From Assessing The Investment Studio, Jiaxin Low

Research Collection Library

Singapore Management University’s (SMU) Li Ka Shing Library was renovated in 2014. During the renovation, the Investment Studio was created within the library to house high-end financial databases such as Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters (now Refinitiv). Usage of the space was assessed using quantitative and qualitative data, comparing the first academic terms across two academic years, 2017 and 2018. The data provided evidence to support anecdotal evidence and library staff’s knowledge and observation. The assessment resulted recommendations for further action. It also provided opportunity to engage with users and stakeholders of this unique space.

The Impact Of Social Media On Reputational Risk, Samantha Claire Hamilton

Senior Honors Projects

In the era of social media, reputation is a crucial feature of business activity and can help companies attract customers and reach the economies of scale and scope that justify their investment. Reputational risk is a challenging topic. This is partly because it involves temporal perception and stock market frenzy like we saw with the first bubble, Tulipmania, and the Dotcom Bubble. These potential threats have strengthened due

to social media platforms playing a main role in these “panic-in, panic out” investing behaviors. As we see from many company crises, this reputational value can grow and then disappear in moments. …

A Comprehensive Financial Analysis Of Retail And Wholesale Food Chains, Aaron Fitzgerald Dallas Ii

Honor’s College Freeman Research Journal

This Financial Analysis Report serves as a financial instrument taking an introspective view into two dynamic companies in the retail and grocery industry. Both Kroger and Costco Wholesale have consistently managed to maintain a reputable career as two large industrial organizations. These two companies have had a magnitude of success by their way of operations in such a competitive market. First, looking at each company's history and way of operations we discovered different strategies utilized between Kroger and Costco. Kroger, a supermarket chain centralizes on effective manufacturing and processing of foods sold in their various supermarkets. They experienced a 6.35% …