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Articles 121 - 138 of 138
Full-Text Articles in Business
Understanding The Dynamics Of Inflation Volatility In Nigeria: A Garch Perspective, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani I. Doguwa
Understanding The Dynamics Of Inflation Volatility In Nigeria: A Garch Perspective, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The estimation of inflation volatility is important to Central Banks as it guides their policy initiatives for achieving and maintaining price stability. This paper employs three models from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a parsimonious approximation to the dynamics of Nigeria’s inflation volatility between 1996 and 2011. Of the competing models, the asymmetric TGARCH (1,1) provides an appropriate paradigm for explaining the dynamics of headline and core CPI volatilities in Nigeria, while the symmetric GARCH (1,1) was found to be adequate for food CPI. The results are quite revealing. Firstly, model outcomes indicate …
Quality Statistics In Banking Reforms For National Transformation, Sarah O. Alade
Quality Statistics In Banking Reforms For National Transformation, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper outlines the important role of statistics in aiding proper planning and achievement of sustainable economic development. The paper elaborates the importance of investing in quality and reliable statistics for policy design and implementation and stresses the vital role statistical information play in effective operation in both private and public sector in every economy. The role of quality, reliable and timely information to a well-functioning financial system and as a guide to monetary policy making is illustrated in the paper. The paper credits accurate statistical information to the success of the Nigerian banking sector reform. However, it suggests that …
Survey Of Foreign Assets And Liabilities In Nigeria 2011 Report, Mohammed M, Tumala, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Oladipupo A. Baruwa
Survey Of Foreign Assets And Liabilities In Nigeria 2011 Report, Mohammed M, Tumala, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Oladipupo A. Baruwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
No abstract provided.
Best Linear Unbiased Estimate Using Buys-Ballot Procedure When Trend-Cycle Component Is Linear, Ifeanyi S. Wueze, Nwogu C. Eleazar, Jude C. Ajaraogu
Best Linear Unbiased Estimate Using Buys-Ballot Procedure When Trend-Cycle Component Is Linear, Ifeanyi S. Wueze, Nwogu C. Eleazar, Jude C. Ajaraogu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The Best linear unbiased estimate (BLUE) of Buys-Ballot estimates when trend-cycle component is linear are discussed in this paper. The estimates are those proposed by Iwueze and Nwogu (2004). Discussed are the Chain Based Estimation (CBE) method and the Fixed Based Estimation (FBE) method. The variates for the CBE method were found to have constant mean and variance but are correlated with only one significant autocorrelation coefficient at lag one. The variates for the FBE method were found to have constant mean, non-constant variance but with constant autocorrelation coefficient at all lags . Because the CBE variates exhibit stationarity, Best …
Stock Market Reaction To Selected Macroeconomic Variables In The Nigerian Economy, Abraham Williams Terfa
Stock Market Reaction To Selected Macroeconomic Variables In The Nigerian Economy, Abraham Williams Terfa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the relationship between the stock market and selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The all share index was used as a proxy for the stock market while inflation, interest and exchange rates were the macroeconomic variables selected. Employing error correction model, it was found that a significant negative short run relationship exists between the stock market and the minimum rediscounting rate (MRR) implying that, a decrease in the MRR, would improve the performance of the Nigerian stock market. It was also found that exchange rate stability in the long run, improves the performance of the stock market. Though …
On Fractionally Integrated Logistic Smooth Transitions In Time Series, Olanrewaju I. Shittu, Yaya S. Olaolua
On Fractionally Integrated Logistic Smooth Transitions In Time Series, Olanrewaju I. Shittu, Yaya S. Olaolua
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Long memory and nonlinearity are two key features of some macroeconomic time series which are characterized by persistent shocks that seem to rise faster during recession than it falls during expansion. A variant of nonlinear time series model together with long memory are used to examine these features in inflation series for three economies. The results which compares favourably with that of van Dijk et al. (2002) elicit some interesting attributes of inflation in the developed and developing economies.
Global Financial Meltdown And The Reforms In The Nigerian Banking Sector, Sanusi L. Sanusi
Global Financial Meltdown And The Reforms In The Nigerian Banking Sector, Sanusi L. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper examined the global financial meltdown and the reforms in the Nigerian banking sector. It was a public speech by the formal Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria that observed the extent and severity of the crisis that began with the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States in August 2007 reflects the confluence of myriad of factors some of which are familiar from previous crises, while others are new. As in previous times of financial turmoil, the pre-crisis period was characterized by (i) surging asset prices that proved unsustainable; (ii) a prolonged credit expansion leading …
Effects Of Global Climate Change On Nigerian Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis, Apata T. .G
Effects Of Global Climate Change On Nigerian Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis, Apata T. .G
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of global warming on Nigerian agriculture and estimation of the determinants of adaptation to climate change. Data used for this study are from both secondary and primary sources. The set of secondary sources of data helped to examine the coverage of the three scenarios (1971-1980; 1981-1990 and 1991-2000). The primary data set consists of 900 respondents’ but only 850 cases were useful. This study analyzed determinants of farm-level climate adaptation measures using a Multinomial choice and stochastic-simulation model to investigate the effects of rapid climatic change on grain production and the …
Robust Linear Classifier For Unequal Cost Ratios Of Misclassification, Oludare S. Ariyo, A O. Adebanji
Robust Linear Classifier For Unequal Cost Ratios Of Misclassification, Oludare S. Ariyo, A O. Adebanji
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper focuses on the robust classification procedures when the assumption of equal cost of misclassification is violated. A normal distribution based data set is generated using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) version 9.1. Using Barlett’s approximation to chi-square, the data set was found to be homogenous and was subjected to three linear classifiers namely: Maximum Likelihood Discriminant Function (MLDF), Fisher’s linear Discriminant Function and Distance Based Discriminant Function. To Judge the performances of these procedures, the Apparent Error Rates for each procedure is obtained for different cost ratios 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 and 1:5 and sample sizes 5:5, 10:10, …
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
A Kalman Filter Approach To Fisher Effect: Evidence From Nigeria, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Dahiru A. Bala
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and Kalman filter methodologies, the study did not find evidence of a full Fisher effect from 1961:1-2009:4. This result indicates that nominal interest rates do not respond one-for-one to changes in inflation rates in the long run despite the presence of positive relationship among the variables. Our study recommends the adoption of potent policies aimed at checking inflation …
Optimal Designs Approach To Portfolio Selection, Etukudo A. I.
Optimal Designs Approach To Portfolio Selection, Etukudo A. I.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In order to obtain the best tradeoff between risk and return, optimization algorithms are particularly useful in asset allocation in a portfolio mix. Such algorithms and proper solution techniques are very essential to investors in order to circumvent distress in business outfits. In this paper, we show that by minimizing the total variance of the portfolio involving stocks in two Nigerian banks which is a measure of risk, optimal allocation of investible funds to the portfolio mix is obtained. A completely new solution technique – modified super convergent line series algorithm which makes use of the principles of optimal designs …
Relationship Between Inflation And Stock Market Returns: Evidence From Nigeria, Omotor G. Douglason
Relationship Between Inflation And Stock Market Returns: Evidence From Nigeria, Omotor G. Douglason
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The linkage between stock prices and inflation has been subjected to extensive research in the past decades and has arouse the interests of academics, researchers, practitioners and policy makers globally, particularly since the 1990s. The issue has been the apparent anomaly of the negative relationship between inflation and stock market returns as most studies in the industrialized economies have shown. This paper investigates this relationship using monthly and quarterly data of Nigeria for the period 1985 to 2008. The findings of this paper seem to suggest that stock market returns may provide an effective hedge against inflation in Nigeria.
Statistics For National Development, Sani I. Doguwa
Statistics For National Development, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Good statistics that has been collected according to agreed good practices are crucial as a tool for development. Gross domestic product (GDP) and other measures of economic activity such as Gross National Income (GNI) together with their individual components, show how the economy is responding to government policy and other influences. The balance of payments can demonstrate the requirement for policy adjustments and is also one of the indicators scrutinised by potential foreign investors in the country. Agricultural statistics clearly have implications for longer-term planning, particularly if they show a move away from the land into urban areas or a …
Monetary And Fiscal Policy Interactions In Nigeria: An Application Of A State-Space Model With Markov-Switching, Chuku V. Chuku
Monetary And Fiscal Policy Interactions In Nigeria: An Application Of A State-Space Model With Markov-Switching, Chuku V. Chuku
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper uses quarterly data to explore the monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Nigeria between 1970 and 2008. As a preliminary exercise, the paper examines the nature of fiscal policies in Nigeria using a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The simulated generalized impulse response graphs generated from the VAR estimation provides evidence of a non-Ricardian fiscal policy in Nigeria. Further, the paper analyzes the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies by applying a State-space model with Markov-switching to estimate the time-varying parameters of the relationship. The evidence indicates that monetary and fiscal policies in Nigeria have interacted in a counteractive …
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
Is The Stock Market A Leading Indicator Of Economic Activity In Nigeria?, Alvan E. Ikoku
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In an effort to address the lacuna in leading indicator studies of African economies and Nigeria in particular, this paper examines the causal relationships among stock market prices, real GDP and the index of industrial production in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2008Q4. Granger causality tests indicate bidirectional causality between stock prices and GDP but no causality between stock prices and industrial production or between GDP and industrial production. Stock prices and GDP are found to be cointegrated, leading to the estimation of vector error correction models. Out-of-sample forecasts constructed with AR(1), ARIMA, structural ARIMA, and VEC models …
Factors, Preventions And Correction Methods For Non-Response In Sample Surveys, Godwin Nwanzu Amahi
Factors, Preventions And Correction Methods For Non-Response In Sample Surveys, Godwin Nwanzu Amahi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Missing survey data occur because of unit and item non-response. This is practically independent of the method of data collection. As a result of the bias that non-response sometimes introduces in survey estimates, identifying factors that promote it, and taking measures of prevention and correction methods are clearly necessary. The standard method to compensate for unit non-response is by weighting adjustment, while item non-responses are handled by some form of imputation. This paper reviews factors that give rise to nonresponse and the corresponding methods used for its prevention and control. It also discusses their properties.
Addressing The Problem Of Non-Response And Response Bias, Fabian C. Okafor
Addressing The Problem Of Non-Response And Response Bias, Fabian C. Okafor
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Survey planners and analysts in Nigeria have devoted much more attention to sampling errors at the expense of nonsampling errors (non-response and response errors). Sampling error is the degree to which the sample estimate differs from the average value of the characteristic due to chance. The present discussion will be centered on non-sampling error, which may present serious deficiencies in the statistics and render the survey useless. According to Platek and Gray (1986), “Non-response has been generally recognized as important measure of the quality of data since it affects the estimates by introducing a possible bias in the estimates and …
A Distributional Analysis Of Out-Of-Pocket Healthcare Financing In Nigeria Using A New Decomposable Gini Index, Ichoku Eme Hyacinth, William M. Fonta, Abdelkrim Araar
A Distributional Analysis Of Out-Of-Pocket Healthcare Financing In Nigeria Using A New Decomposable Gini Index, Ichoku Eme Hyacinth, William M. Fonta, Abdelkrim Araar
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study applies a new method of decomposing total redistributive effect of taxation proposed by Duclos et al. (2003) to assess the redistributive effects of direct healthcare financing in Nigeria. This new framework makes it possible not only to introduce into the conventional Gini Index estimation framework a flexible ethical measure of aversion to inequality but also a novel concepts of horizontal inequity and re-ranking. The empirical results indicate that when the decision to utilize healthcare is always linked to the decision to pay for healthcare, as is the case in Nigeria, out-of-pocket payment, contrary to existing literature, may indeed …