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Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
Determination Of Optimal Level Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria, Ishola W. Oyeniran, Solomon A. Alamu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study adopts the ’buffer stock model’ advanced by Frenkel and Jovanovic (1981) to estimate the optimal level of foreign reserves for Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (ARDL) was used to estimate the optimal foreign reserves function. The results show that the Nigeria’s optimal reserves level responses to adjustment cost of holding reserves and exchange rate volatility and that import and opportunity cost of reserves holding have insignificant impact on Nigeria’s optimal foreign reserves. The short run and long run estimates of the buffer stock model support the theory that foreign reserves holding in Nigeria is more sensitive to …
Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
Estimating And Forecasting The Impact Of Inflation On Economic Growth In Nigeria Using Threshold Analysis, David O.K. Okoroafor, Sesan O. Adeniji, Timilehin Olasehinde
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 – 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and a multivariate time series Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does economic growth granger cause inflation during the period of study. Using broad money supply to GDP as control variable, an inflation threshold of 14% -15% both in the short run and …
Macroeconomic Implications Of Trade Diversification In Nigeria, Lukman O. Oyelami, Philip O. Alege
Macroeconomic Implications Of Trade Diversification In Nigeria, Lukman O. Oyelami, Philip O. Alege
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study seeks to examine the effects of trade diversification on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria. To achieve this, the study employs bound test of ARDL to determine the existence of cointegration between trade diversification and key macroeconomic variables. We further estimate the short-run and long-run effects of Intensive and Extensive trade diversification on Economic growth and exchange rate movements. The results from bound tests confirm co-integration between trade diversification and economic growth on one hand and trade diversification and exchange rate movements on the other hand. Similarly, the results from our estimations show that trade diversification can propel economic growth …
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in …
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
It is considered inapt for central banks to adjust reserve money (quantity of money) and interest rate (price of money) at the same time. Thus, necessitates the need for a choice instrument. Enough evidence abounds in microeconomic theory on the undesirability of manipulating both price and quantity simultaneously in a free market structure. The market, in line with the consensus among economists, either controls the price and allows quantity to be determined by market forces, or influence quantity, leaving prices in the hands of the forces of demand and supply. This paper is, therefore, an attempt to examine the optimal …
Relationship Between Money Supply And Government Revenues In Nigeria, Yakubu Musa, Umar Usman, Aminu B. Zoramawa
Relationship Between Money Supply And Government Revenues In Nigeria, Yakubu Musa, Umar Usman, Aminu B. Zoramawa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The insights on the long run relationship amongst money supply and government revenues are of significant importance for monetary-fiscal policy formulation in a developing country like Nigeria. Taking into account the vital importance of these two variables, we empirically analyzed the long-run relationships and dynamic interactions between the money supply (broad money M2) and government revenues in Nigeria using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study spans the period 1970 to 2010. From the results, it is evident that there is the existence of a long run relationship between money supply and revenues when money supply is …
The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna
The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study explores the relationship between savings and investment in Nigeria during the period 1980-2011. Unlike previous studies, this study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to test for long run relationship. The short-run dynamics are also captured from error correction model (ECM).The results of the Bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. This result is consistent with a number of earlier studies reviewed in the literature that found saving and investment to be cointegrated in the long run. The results also support the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis that postulates low capital …