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The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Academic Performance Of Zayed University Students In The United Arab Emirates, Sharifa Alblooshi, Linda Smail, Alyaa Albedwawi, Mariam Al Wahedi, Maha Alsafi Sep 2023

The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Academic Performance Of Zayed University Students In The United Arab Emirates, Sharifa Alblooshi, Linda Smail, Alyaa Albedwawi, Mariam Al Wahedi, Maha Alsafi

All Works

The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to significant changes across various sectors, including the field of education. In response to the pandemic, educational institutions worldwide, including Zayed University in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), transitioned to online learning. This study aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the academic performance of students in the UAE and their satisfaction with remote learning, while also examining gender differences in these variables. This study used a quantitative research design in which a questionnaire was used to collect data. The study employed a snowball sampling method to recruit a total of …


Gender Discrimination In The Classroom: How Teaching Policies Can Help Close The Gap, Olivia Wycoff Sep 2023

Gender Discrimination In The Classroom: How Teaching Policies Can Help Close The Gap, Olivia Wycoff

sprinkle: an undergraduate journal of feminist and queer studies

No abstract provided.


Rural Medical Scholars Program: Filling The Gap For Health-Care And Public Health Leaders In Mississippi, Ann Sansing, David R. Buys, Marion W. Evans Phd, Mches, Laura Downey, Jasmine Harris-Speight Sep 2023

Rural Medical Scholars Program: Filling The Gap For Health-Care And Public Health Leaders In Mississippi, Ann Sansing, David R. Buys, Marion W. Evans Phd, Mches, Laura Downey, Jasmine Harris-Speight

Journal of Public Health in the Deep South

The Rural Medical & Science Scholars program aims to help rising high school seniors determine if they want to pursue health-related careers. The program shapes students’ interest in and understanding of medicine, health-related disciplines, and other science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. The program combines didactic, observational, and practical learning during a summer semester. Participants earn seven college credits to jumpstart a health or STEM career. We report on descriptive statistics since the program’s inception in 1998. The program has matriculated 401 students, of whom approximately 71% have chosen health-related careers in nursing, physical or occupational therapy, dentistry, pharmacy, …


Using Medicaid Data To Identify Factors That Predict Reinstitutionalization Of Mississippians With Disabilities And Elderly People, Hwanseok Choi Sep 2023

Using Medicaid Data To Identify Factors That Predict Reinstitutionalization Of Mississippians With Disabilities And Elderly People, Hwanseok Choi

Journal of Public Health in the Deep South

Background: Mississippi Bridge to Independence (B2I) was Mississippi’s Money Follows the Person (MFP) program seeking to rebalance the state’s long-term care system by transitioning Medicaid beneficiaries from institutional living to home- and community-based settings (HCBS). Success of initial transitions has been documented in state cost-savings and participants’ quality of life increases. However, reinstitutionalization poses a challenge to sustaining a positive outcome for the initiative. Purpose: Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify the underlying causes of participants’ reinstitutionalization. Methods: The Quality of Life (QoL) survey designed by Mathematica Policy Research was used to measure variables in 7 categories. …


Reconstruction Of Decays To Merged Photons Using End-To-End Deep Learning With Domain Continuation In The Cms Detector, A. Tumasyan Sep 2023

Reconstruction Of Decays To Merged Photons Using End-To-End Deep Learning With Domain Continuation In The Cms Detector, A. Tumasyan

Department of Physics and Astronomy: Faculty Publications

A novel technique based on machine learning is introduced to reconstruct the decays of highly Lorentz-boosted particles. Using an end-to-end deep learning strategy, the technique bypasses existing rule-based particle reconstruction methods typically used in high energy physics analyses. It uses minimally processed detector data as input and directly outputs particle properties of interest. The new technique is demonstrated for the reconstruction of the invariant mass of particles decaying in the CMS detector. The decay of a hypothetical scalar particle A into two photons, A → γγ, is chosen as a benchmark decay. Lorentz boosts γL = 60–600 are …


Arkansas K-2 Teachers’ Perceptions Of The Science Of Reading: A Case Study, Heather L. Nutt Sep 2023

Arkansas K-2 Teachers’ Perceptions Of The Science Of Reading: A Case Study, Heather L. Nutt

Student Theses and Dissertations

Most people would agree that proficiency in reading is essential for students’ success in school and throughout life; however, students across the nation struggle to achieve grade-level proficiency in reading. For decades, people have argued about how reading should be taught. Many scientists now agree that body of evidence is known as the science of reading should inform reading instruction. Although there is a consensus in the scientific community, a gap in the literature exists regarding teachers’ perceptions of the science of reading. Unless all stakeholders come together, this issue will continue to present challenges for students. In this study, …


Alaskan Educator Perceptions Of Preparedness To Identify Diverse Gifted Learners: A Phenomenological Study, Heather J. Stewart Sep 2023

Alaskan Educator Perceptions Of Preparedness To Identify Diverse Gifted Learners: A Phenomenological Study, Heather J. Stewart

Student Theses and Dissertations

The problem addressed in this qualitative study is that classroom teachers are not adequately prepared to identify gifted characteristics, which leads to the underreferral of students from diverse socioeconomic, ethnic, and language backgrounds. The purpose of this study was to explore the perceptions of public K-6 general education classroom teachers regarding their understanding of giftedness as it relates to their abilities to identify potentially gifted students and their awareness of programs and services offered by their district. The study’s guiding theoretical framework was based on key theories of intelligence and giftedness. In a phenomenological approach, 15 elementary educators from the …


Etherstweb – An Ethereum-Based Distributed Application For User Information Trustworthiness Verification, C-G Koa, S-H Heng, J-J Chin Sep 2023

Etherstweb – An Ethereum-Based Distributed Application For User Information Trustworthiness Verification, C-G Koa, S-H Heng, J-J Chin

School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics

Fake news and misinformation are prevalent on the Internet in this day and age. The popularity of social media such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok has encouraged the people to share news or information over Internet without knowing whether it is a truth or fake information. The outbreak of COVID-19 affected the social activities of all levels of society as people were asked to stay at home to self-quarantine. It indirectly encourages the growth of the social activities online. Even though COVID- 19 is no longer a big threat to the world, people already used to rely on the Internet for …


Approval For: Discharge System 2022 Annual Operations And Maintenance Report, Berkeley Pit And Discharge Pilot Project, Dated May 26, 2023, Nikia Greene Sep 2023

Approval For: Discharge System 2022 Annual Operations And Maintenance Report, Berkeley Pit And Discharge Pilot Project, Dated May 26, 2023, Nikia Greene

Silver Bow Creek/Butte Area Superfund Site

No abstract provided.


The Molecular Biophysics Of Extracellular Vimentin And Its Role In Pathogen–Host Interactions, Sepideh Parvanian, Leila S. Coelho-Rato, John E. Eriksson, Alison E. Patteson Sep 2023

The Molecular Biophysics Of Extracellular Vimentin And Its Role In Pathogen–Host Interactions, Sepideh Parvanian, Leila S. Coelho-Rato, John E. Eriksson, Alison E. Patteson

Physics - All Scholarship

Vimentin, an intermediate filament protein typically located in the cytoplasm of mesenchymal cells, can also be secreted as an extracellular protein. The organization of extracellular vimentin strongly determines its functions in physiological and pathological conditions, making it a promising target for future therapeutic interventions. The extracellular form of vimentin has been found to play a role in the interaction between host cells and pathogens. In this review, we first discuss the molecular biophysics of extracellular vimentin, including its structure, secretion, and adhesion properties. We then provide a general overview of the role of extracellular vimentin in mediating pathogen-host interactions, with …


Frsc 359-001: Physical Methods, Kevin Parmelee Sep 2023

Frsc 359-001: Physical Methods, Kevin Parmelee

Chemistry, Environmental and Forensic Science Syllabi

No abstract provided.


Chem 658-103: Advanced Organic Chemistry, Farnaz Shakib Sep 2023

Chem 658-103: Advanced Organic Chemistry, Farnaz Shakib

Chemistry, Environmental and Forensic Science Syllabi

No abstract provided.


A General Effectiveness-Ntu Modeling Framework For Membrane Dehumidification Systems, Andrew J. Fix, James E. Braun, David M. Warsinger Sep 2023

A General Effectiveness-Ntu Modeling Framework For Membrane Dehumidification Systems, Andrew J. Fix, James E. Braun, David M. Warsinger

School of Mechanical Engineering Faculty Publications

Selective membrane dehumidification is a promising technology for energy efficient air dehumidification in buildings and has been ranked as a top alternative technology by the Department of Energy. One critical area that needs to be addressed is system modeling that incorporates device mass transfer characteristics and sizing. This work develops, validates, and applies a simple effectiveness-number of transfer units (𝜀−𝑁TU) modeling framework for dehumidification technologies that can be used to predict performance and determine required membrane area for a wide range of technologies, including energy recovery ventilators, vacuum membrane dehumidification, and desiccant dehumidifiers. Although the 𝜀−𝑁TU method is a well-established …


Multi-Symplectic Simulation On Soliton-Collision For Nonlinear Perturbed Schrödinger Equation, Peijun Zhang, Weipeng Hu, Zhen Wang, Zhijun Qiao Sep 2023

Multi-Symplectic Simulation On Soliton-Collision For Nonlinear Perturbed Schrödinger Equation, Peijun Zhang, Weipeng Hu, Zhen Wang, Zhijun Qiao

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

Seeking solitary wave solutions and revealing their interactional characteristics for nonlinear evolution equations help us lot to comprehend the motion laws of the microparticles. As a local nonlinear dynamic behavior, the soliton-collision is difficult to be reproduced numerically. In this paper, the soliton-collision process in the nonlinear perturbed Schrödinger equation is simulated employing the multi-symplectic method. The multi-symplectic formulations are derived including the multi-symplectic form and three local conservation laws of the nonlinear perturbed Schrödinger equation. Employing the implicit midpoint rule, we construct a multi-symplectic scheme, which is equivalent to the Preissmann box scheme, for the nonlinear perturbed Schrödinger equation. …


On Achieving Acceptable Levels Of Safety Risk In A Reinforcement Learning Environment, Christian Davila Sep 2023

On Achieving Acceptable Levels Of Safety Risk In A Reinforcement Learning Environment, Christian Davila

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

It is well-known that model correctness does not ensure the safe operation of systems that perform safety-critical functions. However, to ensure that potential hazardous events cannot occur, the model must be verified against its safety requirements, many derived during a systematic safety analysis. Typically, this process utilizes a complementary approach of formal verification and testing during the development process of complex systems. As these complex systems expand with the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL), safety considerations must be taken in the development of this technology. Although RL is becoming widely used across different industries, RL does pose some safety challenges. …


Comparison Of A Bottom-Up Gnss Radio Occultation Method To Measure D- And E-Region Electron Densities With Ionosondes And Firi, Dylan J. Shaver, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Anthony L. Franz, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons Sep 2023

Comparison Of A Bottom-Up Gnss Radio Occultation Method To Measure D- And E-Region Electron Densities With Ionosondes And Firi, Dylan J. Shaver, Dong L. Wu, Nimalan Swarnalingam, Anthony L. Franz, Eugene V. Dao, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

High-frequency skywave propagation can be heavily impacted by D- and E-region dynamics requiring accurate global measurements to optimize performance. A standard measurement technique is to use ionosondes, but they are unable to measure below 1 MHz and are only available at a limited number of land-locked sites around the globe. In contrast, the Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) bottom-up method is a new approach specifically designed to generate electron density profiles in the D- and E- region ionosphere. It takes advantage of satellite constellations that currently provide over 20,000 daily measurements and global coverage. In this paper, GNSS-RO …


Search For Exotic Higgs Boson Decays H → Aa → 4Γ With Events Containing Two Merged Diphotons In Proton-Proton Collisions At √S=13 Tev, A. Tumasyan Sep 2023

Search For Exotic Higgs Boson Decays H → Aa → 4Γ With Events Containing Two Merged Diphotons In Proton-Proton Collisions At √S=13 Tev, A. Tumasyan

Department of Physics and Astronomy: Faculty Publications

We present the first direct search for exotic Higgs boson decays H → AA, A → γγ in events with two photonlike objects. The hypothetical particle A is a low-mass spin-0 particle decaying promptly to a merged diphoton reconstructed as a single photonlike object. We analyze the data collected by the CMS experiment at √s = 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 136 fb−1. No excess above the estimated background is found. We set upper limits on the branching fraction β(H → AA → 4γ) of (0.9–3.3) × 10−3 at 95% confidence level …


Ferromagnetic Resonators Synthesized By Metal-Organic Decomposition Epitaxy, Nhat Nguyen, Bryce Herrington, Kayetan Chorazewicz, Szu-Fan (Paul) Wang, Ruthi Zielinski, John Turner, Paul D. Ashby, Ufuk Kilic, Eva Schubert, Mathias Schubert, Ronald A. Parrott, Allen A. Sweet, Robert Streubel Sep 2023

Ferromagnetic Resonators Synthesized By Metal-Organic Decomposition Epitaxy, Nhat Nguyen, Bryce Herrington, Kayetan Chorazewicz, Szu-Fan (Paul) Wang, Ruthi Zielinski, John Turner, Paul D. Ashby, Ufuk Kilic, Eva Schubert, Mathias Schubert, Ronald A. Parrott, Allen A. Sweet, Robert Streubel

Department of Physics and Astronomy: Faculty Publications

Metal-organic decomposition epitaxy is an economical wet-chemical approach suitable to synthesize high-quality low-spin-damping films for resonator and oscillator applications. This work reports the temperature dependence of ferromagnetic resonances and associated structural and magnetic quantities of yttrium iron garnet nanofilms that coincide with single-crystal values. Despite imperfections originating from wet-chemical deposition and spin coating, the quality factor for out-of-plane and in-plane resonances approaches 600 and 1000, respectively, at room temperature and 40 GHz. These values increase with temperature and are 100 times larger than those offered by commercial devices based on complementary metal-oxide semiconductor voltage-controlled oscillators at comparable production costs.


Normalized Solutions For Sobolev Critical Schrödinger-Bopp-Podolsky Systems, Yuxin Li, Xiaojun Chang, Zhaosheng Feng Sep 2023

Normalized Solutions For Sobolev Critical Schrödinger-Bopp-Podolsky Systems, Yuxin Li, Xiaojun Chang, Zhaosheng Feng

School of Mathematical & Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications

We study the Sobolev critical Schr¨odinger-Bopp-Podolsky system −∆u + φu = λu + µ|u|p−2u + |u|4u in R3, −∆φ + ∆2φ = 4πu2 in R3, under the mass constraint u2 dx = c R3 for some prescribed c > 0, where 2 < p < 8/3, µ > 0 is a parameter, and λ ∈ R is a Lagrange multiplier. By developing a constraint minimizing approach, we show that the above system admits a local minimizer. Furthermore, we establish the existence of normalized ground state solutions.


Genetic Susceptibility To Cognitive Decline Following Craniospinal Irradiation For Pediatric Central Nervous System Tumors, Austin L Brown, Pagna Sok, Kimberly P Raghubar, Philip J Lupo, Melissa A Richard, Alanna C Morrison, Jun J Yang, Clinton F Stewart, Mehmet Fatih Okcu, Murali M Chintagumpala, Amar Gajjar, Lisa S Kahalley, Heather Conklin, Michael E Scheurer Sep 2023

Genetic Susceptibility To Cognitive Decline Following Craniospinal Irradiation For Pediatric Central Nervous System Tumors, Austin L Brown, Pagna Sok, Kimberly P Raghubar, Philip J Lupo, Melissa A Richard, Alanna C Morrison, Jun J Yang, Clinton F Stewart, Mehmet Fatih Okcu, Murali M Chintagumpala, Amar Gajjar, Lisa S Kahalley, Heather Conklin, Michael E Scheurer

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

BACKGROUND: Survivors of pediatric central nervous system (CNS) tumors treated with craniospinal irradiation (CSI) exhibit long-term cognitive difficulties. Goals of this study were to evaluate longitudinal effects of candidate and novel genetic variants on cognitive decline following CSI.

METHODS: Intelligence quotient (IQ), working memory (WM), and processing speed (PS) were longitudinally collected from patients treated with CSI (n = 241). Genotype-by-time interactions were evaluated using mixed-effects linear regression to identify common variants (minor allele frequency > 1%) associated with cognitive performance change. Novel variants associated with cognitive decline (P < 5 × 10-5) in individuals of European ancestry (n = 163) were considered replicated if they demonstrated consistent genotype-by-time interactions (P < .05) in individuals of non-European ancestries (n = 78) and achieved genome-wide statistical significance (P < 5 × 10-8) in a meta-analysis across ancestry groups.

RESULTS: Participants were mostly males (65%) diagnosed with embryonal tumors (98%) at …


Understanding Early Cognitive Development: Using Pat Early Years To Support Student Learning, Sandra Knowles Sep 2023

Understanding Early Cognitive Development: Using Pat Early Years To Support Student Learning, Sandra Knowles

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

The correlation between early cognitive and psychosocial development is well established. For this reason, some measurement tools, such as UNICEF’s Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI2030), provide a single score as an overall indicator of a child’s development because performing poorly in one area is likely to mean inadequate development across all areas. While these broad indicators can be useful at a system level, understanding children’s development in discrete domain areas is essential for meaningful intervention. This presentation will explore how measurement tools, such as ACER’s Progressive Achievement Tests (PAT) for the Early Years, can be used to support targeted intervention …


The Contribution Of Learning Trajectories To Enacting The Early Years Learning Framework V2.0, Caroline Cohrssen Sep 2023

The Contribution Of Learning Trajectories To Enacting The Early Years Learning Framework V2.0, Caroline Cohrssen

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

The Early Years Learning Framework for Australia v2.0 (EYLF) guides pedagogy and practice with children aged from birth to 5 years and states that ‘over time, children engage with increasingly complex ideas’. With 5 learning outcomes and 8 principles of practice, this requires educators to be highly skilled in facilitating children’s engagement with increasingly complex ideas. It also assumes that all educators recognise children’s demonstrations of understanding, and know what knowledge (or capabilities) likely preceded this understanding, and what comes next. As a framework, this specific information is missing from the EYLF. Learning trajectories may assist educators to recognise demonstrations …


Conceptual Development: How Do Early Educators And Teachers Support Children's Early Thinking In Stem?, Marilyn Fleer Sep 2023

Conceptual Development: How Do Early Educators And Teachers Support Children's Early Thinking In Stem?, Marilyn Fleer

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

As national and state-based reforms in early education roll-out across Australia, concern for building a well-qualified workforce to meet growing demand has intensified. In parallel with the reforms, teachers and educators are reminded by the recently released 2022 Early Years Learning Framework to design programs that support intentionality in play-based learning. However, the literature shows that despite the concept of intentional teaching being around since 2009, difficulties with how to do this remains. This presentation takes up this challenge, by 1) sharing the collective findings of 6 Australian Research Council-funded research projects into play and learning in STEM; and 2) …


An Implementation Of The Method Of Moments On Chemical Systems With Constant And Time-Dependent Rates, Emmanuel O. Adara, Roger B. Sidje Sep 2023

An Implementation Of The Method Of Moments On Chemical Systems With Constant And Time-Dependent Rates, Emmanuel O. Adara, Roger B. Sidje

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Among numerical techniques used to facilitate the analysis of biochemical reactions, we can use the method of moments to directly approximate statistics such as the mean numbers of molecules. The method is computationally viable in time and memory, compared to solving the chemical master equation (CME) which is notoriously expensive. In this study, we apply the method of moments to a chemical system with a constant rate representing a vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) model, as well as another system with time-dependent propensities representing the susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model with periodic contact rate. We assess the accuracy of …


The Journey To Becoming A Reader: Relationships Between Home Activities, Attitudes And Reading, Kylie Hillman Sep 2023

The Journey To Becoming A Reader: Relationships Between Home Activities, Attitudes And Reading, Kylie Hillman

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

The Progress in International Reading Study – PIRLS for short – has been running since 2001, with Australia joining in 2011. Along with a well-researched measure of students’ reading comprehension, PIRLS includes a number of questionnaires for students, teachers, principals and parents/guardians that provide background and context for students’ performance in the reading assessment. This presentation will provide educators with an introduction to PIRLS and discuss what PIRLS can tell us about various home, attitudinal and behavioural factors that relate to Year 4 students’ performance in the PIRLS reading comprehension assessments.

We will discuss relationships between reading scores and factors …


Bringing Learning Progressions Down To 2-Year-Olds In Reading And Mathematics, Prue Anderson Sep 2023

Bringing Learning Progressions Down To 2-Year-Olds In Reading And Mathematics, Prue Anderson

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

ACER’s learning progressions in reading and mathematics describe growth that is mainly focused on skills students demonstrate at and beyond school. These progressions have recently been extended down to describe earlier levels of growth so we now have seamless progressions from skills and understandings toddlers might demonstrate up to highly sophisticated skills and concepts. This presentation briefly outlines ACER’s work and identifies key implications for educators. The pathways that support early reading development were described in progressions for listening comprehension and sounds and letters. Along with an early mathematics progression, these were conceptualised as embedded in an oral language progression. …


Mathematical Mindsets: Fostering Student Engagement And Positive Mindsets Through The Use Of Challenging Tasks, Alison Hall Sep 2023

Mathematical Mindsets: Fostering Student Engagement And Positive Mindsets Through The Use Of Challenging Tasks, Alison Hall

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

This paper explores the planned use of challenging mathematical tasks. These tasks provide the opportunity for students to improve mathematical thinking by working on problems that they do not yet know how to answer. This research involved a heterogeneous class of year 3 students from a Catholic parish primary school in the northern suburbs of Melbourne. A rubric was also developed to use in conjunction with these tasks, to support discussions with students, broaden their strategies in finding solutions and thereby improve their conceptual understanding. These pedagogical approaches were found to support the improvement of both students’ conceptual understanding in …


Practicing Bilingual Language Use In A Science Methods Class: Perspectives From A Student Teacher And A Teacher Educator, Puneet Gill, Yasmine Villarreal Sep 2023

Practicing Bilingual Language Use In A Science Methods Class: Perspectives From A Student Teacher And A Teacher Educator, Puneet Gill, Yasmine Villarreal

Teaching and Learning Together in Higher Education

No abstract provided.


Does Play Belong In The Primary School Classroom?, Bo Stjerne Thomsen, Rachel Parker Sep 2023

Does Play Belong In The Primary School Classroom?, Bo Stjerne Thomsen, Rachel Parker

2021-2030 ACER Research Conferences

Learning through play has emerged as an important strategy to promote student engagement, inclusion, and holistic skills development beyond the preschool years. If we want to build an education system preparing children for lifelong learning, we can use these strategies and achieve a balance of academic growth, holistic skills and a joy of learning. This presentation addresses the disconnect between policy, research, and practice, by summarising 5 key findings from international studies and 4 challenges to connect policy and practice. The evidence that play supports learning is considerable, and a new framework can create continuity between the early years learning …


Rice-Med, An Integrated Assessment Model For The Mediterranean Basin: Assessing The Climate-Economy-Agriculture Nexus, Chiara Castelli, Marta Castellini, Camilla Gusperti, Veronica Lupi, Sergio Vergalli Sep 2023

Rice-Med, An Integrated Assessment Model For The Mediterranean Basin: Assessing The Climate-Economy-Agriculture Nexus, Chiara Castelli, Marta Castellini, Camilla Gusperti, Veronica Lupi, Sergio Vergalli

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Papers

In this work we update the regionalization and the calibration of the Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) in its 1999 version developed by Nordhaus and Boyer (2000), with a focus on the Mediterranean countries. Our aim is to assess the impact of climate change damages on their main macroeconomic variables in a context where all economies are fossil fuel based. In addition, we extend the model by introducing the uncertainty associated with a possible future catastrophic event, triggered by the temperature increase and variation over time, following the approach of Castelnuovo et al. (2003). We …