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How Does This End?: The Ukraine War And The Future Of Russia, Jonathan M. Acuff, Hannah N. Clegg

Intelligence and Security Studies

We analyze a range of future scenarios for Russia related to the Ukraine War. Although regime change is a publicly-stated objective for several leaders of NATO countries, we find very little prospect for it. The Russian economy has largely evaded the effects of the sanctions. Despite enormous casualties and incompetence in the management of the war, both Putin and the war remain popular with the Russian public. Contrary to most analysis to date, the Wagner Group mutiny of June 2023 is not an indication of Putin’s weakness, but his strength. The coercive mechanisms of the Russian state remain intact. Indeed, …

Review: Hybrid Warriors: Proxies, Freelancers And Moscow’S Struggle For Ukraine, Sarah Lohmann

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Anna Arutunyan

Reviewed by Dr. Sarah Lohmann, teaching faculty, University of Washington

Dr. Sarah Lohmann, editor of What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare (US Army War College Press, 2022), calls Anna Arutunyan's latest book, Hybrid Warriors, a "must-read for senior members of the US defense community" that "encourages strategists to think beyond segmented operations to ensure Russia's broad defeat." Lohmann highlights the book's value in that it provides "perspectives that have not yet been heard in the West," as Arutunyan "relies on Russian sources from media and academia, as well as hundreds of interviews." Lohmann also notes …

Ukraine: The Case For Urgency, Rebecca W. Jensen, Anthony L. Tingle

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

If the United States and its allies seek to deny Vladimir Putin an objective victory in the Russia-Ukraine War, they must commit to providing sufficient aid to the Ukrainian army soon because the window of opportunity to provide sufficient resources is narrow—and closing. This article argues that the West must articulate a reasonable strategy for Ukrainian victory now, as a failure in Ukraine will weaken relationships between the United States and Western European states and their global partners while emboldening state and non-state actors to threaten the rules-based international order.

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Toward A Strategic Art For Sanctions, David J. Katz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

New strategic art is required to maneuver political economies to meet the demands of future engagements and campaigns. Current discussions of the projection of political-economic power are typically abstract, high-level, and policy-focused or present singular tactical actions as strategic actions, creating a gap for campaign practitioners. This article addresses the gap by drawing on Joint Planning, Joint Publication 5-0, and Joint Campaigns and Operations, Joint Publication 3-0, to further develop the concept and methodologies first introduced in the author’s earlier article “Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Projection for the 21st Century.”

Apotheosis Of The State And The Decline Of Civilization: A Systems Approach, Robert Bedeski

Comparative Civilizations Review

Humanity is undergoing a second Axial Age. The first, as described by Karl Jaspers, brought transcendence into the vision and self-understanding of humans and the world. The rise of secularism and “Death of God” is dissolving and fragmenting that transcendence — a vital subsystem of the civilization system. Economy, knowledge and government comprise three additional subsystems and have coalesced to form the modern sovereign state, diminishing the traditional place of religion, art and philosophy in civilizations. An example of a state lacking common institutions of transcendence was the Mongol empire. Ruling Russia for a quarter millennium, its state form was …

“Genocide Of The Soviet People”: Putin’S Russia Waging Lawfare By Means Of History, 2018–2023, Anton Weiss-Wendt

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

This article exposes the political underpinnings of the term “genocide of the Soviet people,” introduced and actively promoted in Russia since 2019. By reclassifying mass crimes committed by the Nazis and their accomplices against the civilian population—specifically Slavic—as genocide, Russian courts effectively engage in adjudication of the history of the Second World War. In the process, genocide trials, ongoing in twenty-five Russian provinces and five occupied Ukrainian territories, present no new evidence or issue new indictments, thus fulfilling none of the objectives of a standard criminal investigation. The wording of the verdicts, and a comprehensive political project put in place …

International Competition In The High North: Kingston Conference On International Security 2022

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional study center, the Ted Stevens …

Exploring The International Humanitarian Law Status Of Foreign Fighters In The Ukrainian International Legion Of Territorial Defence, S. Bosch

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

This paper explores the international humanitarian law classification which applies to foreign fighters that have been enlisted in the Ukrainian International Legion of Territorial Defence pursuant to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The paper explains the legal rights, obligations and consequences which attach to mercenary, combatant and prisoner of war status; and explores how these foreign members of the Ukrainian International Legion of Territorial Defence fit into this legal landscape. This paper challenges the legality of Russia's decision to classify these individuals as mercenaries. The paper supports the argument that these foreign members of the Ukrainian International Legion …

What Explains American Perceptions Of Russia And China?, Shane Stryker

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This undergraduate senior thesis project aims to investigate the question of how Americans perceive the challenges posed by Russia and China comparatively, and which factors have the greatest influence on these perceptions. This is important for many reasons, such as a greater understanding of American public opinion on foreign affairs that may help frame approaches to U.S. foreign policy. Additionally, finding where the American public agrees and disagrees on competitors and challengers provides us with insight that can be used to explain perceptions.

First, there will be a literature review concerning the importance of understanding public opinion, explanations and theories …

Environmental War, Climate Security, And The Russia-Ukraine Crisis, Mark P. Nevitt

Faculty Articles

This Article addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s broad implications for energy security, climate security, and environment protections during wartime. I assert that in the short-term the Russian-Ukraine war is poised to hinder much-needed international climate progress. It will stymie international decarbonization efforts and cause greater uncertainty in other climate-destabilized parts of the world, such as the Arctic. While Russia has become a pariah in the eyes of the United States and other Western nations, it has forged new partnerships and capitalized on new, lucrative energy markets outside the West and Global South. But in the long term, the global renewable energy …

Navigating The Future Of Global Challenges: Analyzing U.S. Foreign Policy In The 21st Century, Chance Lee Hepola

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

In recent years, traditional American foreign policy norms have been rocked by dissent and challenges to the status quo. The rise of American populism, the 2016 election, and the admiration of ‘America First’ policies have contributed to the shift of modern American internationalism and statecraft to a retreat towards isolationism and a wariness to theinternational order. More so, questions regarding the United States’ role in NATO, approach to Ukrainian aid, and the ever-evolving Israel-Hamas War have all but exacerbated the issue of the American approach to foreign policy. Members of Congress, both from the left and the right, are deeply …

The Security Dilemma And Conflict In Space: Impossible Or Inevitable?, Mackenzie Enholm

Journal of Strategic Security

Space has been identified as the next warfighting domain. With tensions simmering between the great spacefaring nations amid a space arms race, or at the very least a race for superior space technology, this article will examine such tensions through the lens of the security dilemma. Do the technology escalations between the great space powers and dual-use space technologies make space conflict inevitable? The United States, China, and Russia continue to develop advanced counterspace capabilities with the ability to target other space systems and satellites. Given the nature of states to maximize their own security amid uncertainty in space, physical …

Reverse-Engineering Of Disinformation Campaigns During The War In Ukraine, Lora Pitman, Ava Baratz, Kelly Morgan, Marcy Alvarado

School of Cybersecurity Faculty Publications

Information operations have long been a part of warfare. Disinformation campaigns, in particular, are usually launched by states in order to mislead and confuse populations in adversarial countries, but also to obtain support for their actions from domestic audiences. These campaigns threaten human security, at the individual level, but also state- and even international security. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia came with a new wave of disinformation not only in Ukraine itself, but also in countries from various other continents. This paper studies the characteristics of the spread of disinformation from the first day of the war in February …

Strategic Narrative And Global Public Opinion On The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Jason Rhett

CMC Senior Theses

Through analyzing the cases of public opinion in Russia and South Africa, this thesis explores the nature of strategic narratives and the effects that they have on public opinion. Using the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a case study, it is conclusive that while strategic narratives are important and impactful, they are not the only factor that shape domestic and international public opinion. In Russia, while narrative has swayed a large portion of the population, there are those who’s stances can be attributed to the pressure to conform to the Russian nationalist majority. In South Africa, the country’s leadership has taken a …

Russian Chemical And Biological Weapons: Limiting The Effects Of Russian Cbw Programs On Nato Security Through 2035, Jason Gregory Porter

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

This thesis uses qualitative research methods to: (1) assess the extent and capabilities of Russia’s modern chemical and biological weapons programs, (2) assess Russian compliance with arms control agreements, (3) determine the threats Russian chemical and biological weapons pose to NATO security, (4) assess NATO’s existing strategy against the modern chemical and biological threat, and (5) provide recommendations for U.S. and NATO policies and programs to mitigate the threat of these programs in the short and medium term. This project demonstrates that Russian chemical and biological weapons programs have remained consistently in violation of international arms control agreements since the …

The Decision To Invade: An Internal Perspective To The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, Muhammad Damar Shafy Ramadhan

Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia marked a new turning point in the history of the 21^st century and has had far-reaching effects for much of the globalized world. The intensity of such an unexpected and unprovoked war has made it crucial to seek out the reasons why Russia decided to wage war on Ukraine. As such, there is a need to look for a deeper origin of the conflict, especially the unique circumstances that led to such policy being pursued. A comprehensive and theoretical approach that connects all the dots into one chronological picture is required. To that …

Was The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine A Failure Of Western Deterrence?, Bettina Renz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that deterrence efforts were based on problematic assumptions about the Kremlin’s motivations. The study concludes with lessons for Western military and policy practitioners with the intention to enable better future thinking …

Parameters 2023-24 Winter Demi-Issue, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Winter 2023–24 demi-issue of Parameters. Released approximately one month before the full issue of the journal, the demi-issue addresses developing current events and topics critical to our readership, previews content for the forthcoming full issue, and tackles the big questions being asked today in the fields of military strategy and defense policy. This demi-issue includes two special commentaries focused on the Russia-Ukraine War.

Was The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine A Failure Of Western Deterrence?, Bettina Renz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

In February 2022, many observers initially evaluated the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a failure of Western deterrence. That assessment was and is flawed inasmuch as the West never articulated a clear strategy to deter such an invasion. Engaging with relevant conceptual debates about how deterrence works and relating this information to what the West did and did not do in the run-up to the invasion, this article shows that deterrence efforts were based on problematic assumptions about the Kremlin’s motivations. The study concludes with lessons for Western military and policy practitioners with the intention to enable better future thinking …

The Future Role Of Strategic Landpower, Philip F. Baker, Gregory L. Cantwell, Timothy L. Clark, Gregory R. Foxx, Justin M. Magula, Curtis S. Perkins, Kirk A. Sanders, Timothy A. Sikorski, Carl L. Zeppegno

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower. This publication serves as part of an enduring effort to evaluate strategic …

The Strategic Importance Of Taiwan To The United States And Its Allies: Part Two – Policy Since The Start Of The Russia-Ukraine War, Luke P. Bellocchi

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Taiwan has become increasingly important to the United States and its allies as the Russia-Ukraine War has united democracies against authoritarian expansionism and indeed has developed an international democracy-authoritarianism dynamic in global affairs. Part one of this article clearly outlined the geopolitical, economic, and soft-power reasons why Taiwan is strategically important. Part two reviews the development of US and allied policy statements on Taiwan—from the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to the present—and provides policymakers and military strategists with incremental but realistic recommendations for understanding the current dynamic of the region and fashioning responses to deter further authoritarian aggression.

Parameters Autumn 2023, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

The Chechen Kadyrovtsy’S Coercive Violence In Ukraine, Wilson A. Jones

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Russia pioneered exploiting civilian inequalities to maximize military effectiveness in Chechnya, contributing to the Kadyrovtsy blocking detachments observed in Ukraine. Kadyrovtsy, pro-Russian Chechens, are drawn from a unique political order enabling this specialized military role. Military inequality literature typically ignores how minority-ethnic forces often serve in specialized combat roles. Understanding the Chechen Wars, the Kadyrov regime, and living standards in Russia helps explain these minority-ethnic blocking detachments in Ukraine. Analysis of this vital section of Putin’s regime offers actionable recommendations for Western actors to undermine Russian military efforts and identifies the potential risks of those actions.

2023 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Usawc Ssi

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of …

Impact Of The Russia-Ukraine War On Education And International Students, Fakir Al Gharaibeh, Ifzal Ahmad, Rima Malkawi

Journal of International Women's Studies

This study examines the effect of the Ukraine crisis on the national and international economy, which is intrinsically tied to education, research, and science. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the country’s economy plummeted sharply. This displaced many local and international students, teachers, and educators at Ukrainian universities, schools, and institutes, including girls and women. In this paper, we have highlighted the global effort to sustain higher education and accommodate displaced students. We have adopted an exploratory, descriptive analysis of media coverage of the Russia-Ukraine War and other statistical studies and articles generally addressing …

Military Women In World Cinema: A 20th Century History And Filmography, Introduction, Deborah A. Deacon, Stacy Fowler

Faculty Articles

From British soldier Flora Sandes to the fame World War II Night Witches of the Soviet Air Force, women across the globe stepped up to defend their countries during every major and minor conflict of the twentieth century, and filmmakers have long attempted to capture their stories.

This book analyzes real and fictional military women's portrayals in world cinema, including movies from Israel, the United Kingdom, Italy, China, France, the Soviet Union, and others. It includes theatrical releases, direct-to-video productions, and made-for-television films.

Chapters, organized by decade, address topics including the women's sexuality, maternal and marital status, leadership skills, actual …

Decolonizing Kyiv’S Politics Of Memory: Current And Potential Implications Of Russia’S 2022 Invasion Of Ukraine On Ukrainian Monuments And Toponyms., Camilla Gironi

The Journal of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Development

History is the basis of our identity, but it sometimes represents a trap. As well explained by Keith Lowe, monuments are representative of our values, and every society deludes itself that its values will be everlasting. However, in a world changing at an unprecedented pace while we move on, urban furnishment such as monuments or streets’ names remain frozen in time. Statues and toponyms that were erected and chosen a long time ago may no longer be representative of the values we now treasure. While Russia’s aggression is still raging, a lot has been written on the potential implications of …

Never Enough: Eu Military Spending Challenges In The Face Of Open Conflict, Katherine Wallentine

The Journal of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Development

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent a jolt of tension and anxiety throughout the European Union, as well as the rest of the world. Lawmakers and strategists scrambled to find a suitable response in the immediate aftermath and now, a year later, the conversation continues as to what the best course of action is for the EU. Should it amplify and radically increase its supranational defense budget and if so, how should it accomplish this monumental task? How much of it should fall on the Member States to meet the two percent threshold as laid out by …