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Epidemic Dynamics Under Pulse Population Exchange, Hannah Kravitz, Christina Durón, Moysey Brio

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Many epidemiological models assume either closed populations or continuous demographic turnover. We consider an intermediate setting in which exchange occurs through discrete pulses. In this paper, we introduce a population-conserving compartmental epidemiological model with pulse population exchange at a set of prescribed times. At each pulse, a fraction of the population in each compartment is replaced by a combination of susceptible and immunized individuals. In contrast to typical pulse birth or pulse vaccination models where only a single compartment undergoes a pulse population change, the pulses in this model have competing effects: removing infectious individuals reduces the force of infection, …

The Al-Bahah Paradox: Divergent Patterns Of Increased And Decreased Infectious Disease Incidence Relative To National Saudi Rates Over 12 Years Of Surveillance, Mohammed A. A. Alqumber

Saudi Medical Journal

Objective: To identify statistically significant deviations in notifiable infectious disease incidence between Al-Bahah region and national Saudi averages, and to generate hypotheses that may inform future epidemiological, microbiological, and public health investigations. Methods: In April 2026, a 12-year retrospective ecological study (2013–2024) was conducted using surveillance data from the Saudi Ministry of Health for 37 notifiable infectious diseases across 20 health regions. Cumulative incidence rates, standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs), and Z-tests compared observed cases in Al-Bahah against national estimates. Results: Overall incidence was 15.8% lower in Al-Bahah than nationally (86.42 versus 102.68; incidence rate ratios = 0.842; p …

Analysis Of Communicable Disease Trends In Children: Babylon Governorate, Iraq From 2022 To 2024, Sahar Hassan, Kareem Jebur Dhaidan

Al-Ameed Journal for Medical Research and Health Sciences

Background: Infectious diseases are a great challenge to the health of children globally. This paper provides an epidemiological scenario and patterns of these diseases among children in the Hilla Babylon Governorate, Iraq, and specifically, the re-emergence of meals.

Methods: The retrospective study was carried out on 7851 medical records of children aged below 15 years between the period of January 1, 2022 and December 31, 2024. The registry of Babylon Maternity and Children Hospital was used to extract data. Data were analyzed in terms of trends and distributions by age, sex and time using descriptive statistics and inferential tests.

Results: …

Epidemiology, Classification, Risk Factors, Pathophysiology And Management Of Diabetes Mellitus: A Review, Mohammed Raad Khalaf, Tariq Muhammed Ali, Entedhar K. Hussain, Alaa Al-Noori

Al-Esraa University College Journal for Medical Sciences

Diabetes mellitus is a common metabolic disorder, remains a global health challenge with escalating prevalence rates, necessitating a thorough understanding of its multifaceted aspects for effective management. This review synthesizes current knowledge on the epidemiology, classification, risk factors, pathophysiology, and management strategies of diabetes. The epidemiology highlights the rising global prevalence of DM and its regional variations, emphasizing the socio-economic and demographic factors contributing to this epidemic. The classification provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving classification systems, encompassing Type 1, Type 2, and gestational diabetes. Risk factors associated with the development of diabetes are explored, encompassing genetic predisposition, lifestyle …

Traveling Wave Fronts For Sir Epidemic Models With Nonlocal Dispersal And Delayed Effects, Ashley Evette Embry

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates traveling wave solutions for two classes of delayed nonlocal dispersal susceptible--infected--recovered (SIR) epidemic models incorporating biologically realistic mechanisms such as delayed infectivity, delayed dispersal, nonlocal transmission, demographic turnover, and nonlinear incidence effects. These models extend classical spatial epidemic frameworks by allowing long-range population movement through nonlocal dispersal operators and incorporating temporal memory into both diffusion and transmission processes. The primary objective is to establish the existence of traveling wave solutions connecting disease-free equilibria to endemic states and to characterize threshold conditions governing epidemic propagation. The simultaneous presence of nonlocal dispersal, multiple delays, and non-monotone nonlinear incidence terms …

Global Health Financing Of Diagonal Interventions: Building Resilient And Sustainable Health Systems In Sub-Saharan Africa, Lucy Kim

Master in Public Policy Theses

Background: Global health financing has historically prioritized disease-specific “vertical” programs over broader “horizontal” strengthening of general health systems. Vertical programs in HIV have led to unprecedented reductions in mortality worldwide, but HIV remains a significant public health threat in sub-Saharan Africa, where vertical strategies have long been criticized for creating fragmented health systems. In response, global health strategies have shifted towards combining vertical investments with broader horizontal activities, commonly referred to as “diagonal” programming. While evidence suggests that diagonal programming has the potential to create more resilient and sustainable health systems, evaluating its value for money is challenging due to …

Stochastic Invasion And Extinction In Environmentally Transmitted Diseases, Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Lauren M. Childs

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

How Human Behavior Shapes Epidemic Dynamics, Leah Lejeune, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Lauren M. Childs, Omar Saucedo

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Dynamics Of A Two-Stage Epidemiological Model With Post-Infection Mortality And Transmission Heterogeneity, B Sagar

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Data-Driven Modeling Approaches For Epidemiological Applications Using County-Level Data, Mansoor A. Haider

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Modeling The Dynamics Of Infectious Disease Transmission Through Wastewater Surveillance: Applications To Covid-19 Epidemiology, Ephraim Agyingi, Michael Kostrna

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Group B Streptococcus In Pregnant Women: Universal Guidelines And Protocols, Dania Presteguin

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Collection

Background: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of maternal sepsis and neonatal mortality globally. Variability in screening and treatment guidelines influences global disease burden.

Objective: This study uses a cross-national analysis to compare screening and treatment guidelines and their impact on prevalence, screening, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP), and maternal-neonatal clinical manifestations Methodology: A systematic review of secondary literature was conducted using PubMed, Scopus, and CINAHL (2010-2025). Inclusion criteria include maternal GBS colonization and one or more measures of interventions and neonatal infection rates. No geographic or demographic restrictions were applied. A total of 67 studies were screened, and …

Stochastic Universal Differential Equations For Epidemiological Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification In Disease Transmission Dynamics, Alice Menaya Armah-Bonney

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Epidemic forecasting requires not only predictions of expected case counts, but also quantification of uncertainty, although existing surrogate modeling frameworks for agent-based models remain fundamentally deterministic. In this thesis a Stochastic Universal Differential Equation framework is presented that extends the deterministic Universal Differential Equation approach by incorporating a learnable stochastic diffusion term, enabling calibrated probabilistic forecasts while preserving the mechanistic interpretability and computational efficiency of the deterministic baseline. In doing so, a two-phase training algorithm is introduced to ensure stable convergence and the framework is validated against the ensemble output from ExaEpi, an exascale agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak …

Enterotoxaemia In Goats: Prevalence, Etiology, Risk Factors, And Therapeutic Approaches: A Comprehensive Review, Muhammad Mohsen, Jam Kashif Zaman, Amjad Hussain Mirani, Nazeer Hussain Kalhoro, Benazir Sahito

Journal of Bioresource Management

Enterotoxaemia remains one of the most severe and rapidly fatal diseases affecting goats, mainly caused by Clostridium perfringens types C and D. Despite widespread vaccination practices, the disease continues to produce significant health and economic losses, particularly in intensive and semi-intensive goat production systems. This review summarizes the current understanding of enterotoxaemia, focusing on its etiology, pathogenesis, epidemiology, risk factors, diagnostic approaches, and updated therapeutic and preventive strategies. C. perfringens overgrows in the intestinal lumen under favorable conditions such as sudden dietary changes, high-energy feeding, or stress-related microbial imbalance. The toxins produced especially epsilon and beta induce intestinal necrosis, vascular …

Capacity Building In Biorisk Management And Field Epidemiology: Proceedings Of A Biosafety And Outbreak Simulation Training Programme, Muralidharan Menon Arjun, Jain Vij Shruti, Panaparambil Azis Suhana, Gopinathan Pillai Sreekanth, Sudheesh N, Anup Jayaram, Prasad Varamballi, K. C. Muraleedharan, Sunil S. Ramteke, Subhash Kaushik, Chiranjay Mukhopadhyay

Indian Journal of Research in Homoeopathy

The Biosafety and Outbreak Simulation Training 2025, held from 6–10 October 2025 at Manipal, Karnataka, India, brought together thirty homoeopathic doctors from 14 states to strengthen national preparedness for infectious disease threats. Organised by the Manipal Institute of Virology (MIV) under Manipal Academy of Higher Education (MAHE) in collaboration with the Central Council for Research in Homoeopathy (CCRH), the workshop integrated theoretical sessions, hands-on training on sample transportation, and a comprehensive outbreak simulation exercise. Core modules spanned biorisk management, biosafety and biosecurity, biomedical waste management, incident response, epidemiological investigation, and sample transport in accordance with International Air Transport Association …

Bacterial Fecal Microbiome Composition Associated With Hiv Stage Among Rural And Peri-Urban Adults Living With Hiv In Uganda, Bożena M Morawski, Elise R Morton, Miya Yunus, Claudia Muñoz-Zanzi, Rojelio Mejia, Ran Blekhman, David R Boulware, Sarah M Lofgren

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

Background

Gut microbiome composition in HIV-infection provides insight into HIV pathogenesis and potentially offers avenues to adjunctive HIV therapies. Although two-thirds of people living with HIV (PLHIV) are in Africa, studies of the gut microbiome PLHIV have focused on non-African populations. Additionally, social, cultural, and environmental factors influence the gut microbiome and differ substantially between African and Western and urban and rural communities. Here, we quantify the relationships between immune status and fecal microbiome composition in 175 rural Ugandan PLHIV.

Methods

In 2013, 175 Ugandan PLHIV contributed a single fecal sample as part of a cohort study of 202 participants. …

The Global Cancer Crisis: A Review Of Growing Burden, Deepening Inequality And Initiatives For Prevention And Early Detection, Charles Yankah, Jonathan Nwiloh, Carlos Mestres, Abdelmalek Bouzid, Tom Mwambu, Andrew Duncan, Mohamed Debieche, Samuel Omokhodion, Uvie Onakpoya, Matthias Angres

General Surgery, East Africa

Cancer constitutes one of the most urgent global health crises, with over 20 million new cases diagnosed annually worldwide, claiming 10 million lives. This devastating burden disproportionately affects vulnerable populations: 75% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries despite these regions having lower reported incidence rates. Lung cancer leads the global toll, representing 12% of all cases but 19% of deaths, followed by breast cancer (12% of cases) and colorectal cancer (9.6%). A stark geographical inequity defines the cancer landscape—while wealthy regions such as North America, Northern Europe and Australia report the highest incidence rates, Africa and Latin …

Covid-19 Infection And Hypertension In Correlation With Race, Elizabeth Durkin

The Pegasus Review: UCF Undergraduate Research Journal

Healthcare disparities exist in the U.S. between different races. This study investigated the frequency of COVID-19 infections and hypertension cases among five different racial groups (White, Black, Asian, Native American, and Native Hawaiian). The study also examined the correlation between COVID-19 infections and hypertension with the hypothesis that because of disease predisposition and socioeconomic barriers, Black populations would have the highest rates of COVID-19 infections and hypertension. We used data from the Kaiser Family Foundation regarding COVID-19 cases and race in conjunction with Census population data to determine whether COVID-19 case frequency means differed by race. Data on hypertension and …

Spatial Temporal Modeling Of Infectious Disease Patterns In Texas, Robert E. Lashbrook

Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses

The Texas Department of State Health Services monitors numerous notifiable conditions statewide, including Campylobacter, Salmonella, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Rabies, and West Nile virus (WNV). Given the substantial health, economic, and public health burden associated with these conditions, improving prediction is an important step toward reducing their overall impact. This study evaluated whether external demographic, social, climate, and environmental data could improve prediction of county-year disease activity across Texas. County level data was analyzed using supervised machine learning models, including linear regression, ridge regression, multilayer perceptron, random forest, XGBoost, as well as K-means clustering to identify broader …

The Uncommon Suspect: Cavitary Pulmonary Tuberculosis In A Previously Healthy Adult In Colorado, Nikita Zanko, Cristina Lee, Dmitriy Scherbak

Continental and Mountain Divisions GME Resarch Day 2026

No abstract provided.

Long Covid And Cardiovascular Diseases Among U.S. Adults: Results From The U.S. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Geoffrey Y Zhang, John C Lin, Dang Nguyen, Sameed Ahmed M Khatana, Thomas P Giordano

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

Objective: Long COVID is associated with persistent symptoms including cardiovascular complications; however, the epidemiology and directionality of this association remain unclear.

Methods: Utilizing a retrospective cohort study design with cross-sectional analyses, 8,332 respondents aged 18 and older from the 2022 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) who had a prior COVID-19 infection, were analyzed to determine the temporal association between long COVID and cardiovascular disease (CVD), modeling each as both outcome and exposure in separate analyses.

Results: Long COVID was associated with any CVD diagnosis (OR 1.37; 95% CI: 1.05-1.80), specifically angina (OR 1.81; 95% CI: 1.18-2.77) and myocardial infarction (OR …

A Randomized Controlled Trial Combining House Screening And Insecticide-Treated Nets Reduces Malaria Transmission In Northwestern Ethiopia, Aklilu K. Belay, Abebe Asale, Catherine L. Sole, Abdullahi A. Yusuf, Baldwyn Torto, Zewdu Abro, Menale Kassie, Clifford M. Mutero, David P. Tchouassi

All Peer-Reviewed Publications

House screening (HS) of doors, eaves, and windows using wire-mesh has demonstrated potential in the integrated vector management of malaria. However, limited epidemiological data are available to guide its implementation across different ecological settings. In a 16-month randomized controlled trial (follow-up period) conducted across three agroecological areas (dry mountain, plateau highland, and semi-arid) in Jabi Tehnan district, northwestern Ethiopia, treatment houses were equipped with HS combined with insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), while control houses received ITNs only. The intervention led to a significant 2.3-fold reduction in indoor malaria vector density, the primary entomologic outcome, largely influenced by An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes. …

Artificial Intelligence Biomarker Detects High-Risk Childhood Asthma Subgroup For Respiratory Infections And Exacerbations, Young J Juhn, Chung-Il Wi, Euijung Ryu, Katherine S King, Sunghwan Sohn, Elham Sagheb, Greg Jenkins, David Watson, Miguel A Park, Sergio E Chiarella, Hirohito Kita, Mir Ali, W Charles Huskins, Elizabeth H Ristagno, Imad Absah, Charles Grose, Kathy Ihrke, Elizabeth A Krusemark, Thanai Pongdee, Björn Nordlund, Carla M Davis, Robert J Pignolo, Hongfang Liu

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

Background: Asthma is associated with an increased risk of acute respiratory infections (ARI). Little is known about whether natural language processing (NLP)-powered digital biomarkers can identify a high-risk asthma subgroup for ARI during early childhood.

Objective: We assessed whether a digital biomarker could identify a high-risk subgroup of childhood asthma for ARI.

Methods: We applied validated NLP algorithms for Predetermined Asthma Criteria (NLP-PAC) and Asthma Predictive Index (NLP-API) to electronic health records of the 1997-2016 Mayo Clinic Birth Cohort. We categorized the cohort into 4 subgroups: both criteria positive (NLP-PAC+/NLP-API+), PAC positive only (NLP-PAC+), API positive only (NLP-API+), and both …

Zika Virus: A Review Of An Emerging Disease Threatening Global Health, Gudikandula Krishna, S. Sreedevi, Dasari Thrimothi

Maaen Journal for Medical Sciences

The Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused a widespread pandemic that is currently spreading throughout Central America, the United States of America, South America, and the Caribbean. The goal of the review is to provide a detailed summary of relevant information to the readers that is currently available about the genetic structure of the Zika virus, transmission, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, complications, treatment, diagnosis, and genetic composition of Zika virus infection. The relevant literature on ZIKV was retrieved by employing Science Direct, Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct Index, electronic databases. The analysis concludes that the Zika virus (ZIKV) primarily spreads among arboreal …

Assessing Viral Susceptibility In Tilapia Species Using Plithogenic Fuzzy Soft Set: A Multi-Expert Approach For Tilv, Raúl González Salas, Jhael Mikaela Gómez Ashqui, Marco Paúl Medina Valencia

Neutrosophic Sets and Systems

This research assessed tilapia species susceptibility to Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV) via a new plithogenic fuzzy soft set (CFS). This mathematical conception offers a holistic assessment via biological, environmental, and epidemiological attributes, merging unknown and variable data across multiple researching experts. Thus, the findings emerged from controlled and field assessed mortality, viral titers, and microenvironments of up to five species processed through the CFS model to determine vulnerability rankings. CFS revealed Oreochromis niloticus was the most susceptible to TiLV with red hybrids second and O. mossambicus most resistant. In addition, the CFS model revealed specific parameters, including temperature and population …

Rapid Discrimination Of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis And Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria Disease Via Interpretive Machine Learning Analysis Of Routine Laboratory Tests, Jia Wei Tang, Xue Song Xiong, Ting Ting Huang, Yu Lu Zhang, Lin Fei Yao, Wen Wen Zhang, Yun Yun Xie, Quan Fa Liang, Zhi Xuan Tan, Kun Jiang, Xin Liu, Liang Wang

Research outputs 2022 to 2026

Objectives Rapid discrimination of infections caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) is crucial in clinical settings. Despite overlapping clinical and radiological features, the two require markedly different therapeutic approaches and public health responses. Current laboratory methods are time-consuming and complex, underscoring the urgent need for a simple and efficient diagnostic tool to inform public health decision-making. Methods Demographic, haematological and biochemical data were collected from two hospitals in Jiangsu province, China, between December 2018 and October 2024. A total of 400 patients were included in the training cohort, with 66 patients used for external validation. Six machine …

Data-Driven Optimization And Parameter Estimation For A Metric Graph Epidemic Model With Applications To Covid-19 Spread In Poland: A Real-World Example Of Optimization For A Challenging Rosenbrock-Type Objective Function, Hannah Kravitz, Christina Duron, Brittani Nieves, Moysey Brio

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper, we apply data-driven optimization to estimate key parameters in a metric graph-based epidemiological model, with the aim of analyzing the effect of road networks on the geographic spread of epidemics. As a case study, we fit our model to data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland during 2021. Our dataset integrates county-level daily case reports, national census information, and traffic flow studies. This framework allows us to examine the relative contribution of specific travel routes over time and infer unobserved transmission patterns in the presence of incomplete or unreliable case reporting. The optimization problem that arises from …

Epidemiological-Based Study Of Sars-Cov-2 In Faisalabad, Sana Ullah, Muhammad Waseem Khan, Qurat-Ul- Ain, Khushbu Farva, Niaz Muhammad Khan, Hayat Ullah

Biological Engineering Student Research

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) raced around the world across different populations; there needs to be a consolidated effort to understand the divergence of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Population-based epidemiological characteristics studies measure the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a country. The current research study was designed to report epidemiological data from Pakistan. For this purpose, 246 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients were included in the study. For SARS-CoV-2 confirmation, viral samples were collected from all the study participants; SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by viral nucleic acid detection using a nucleic acid detection kit. After SARS-CoV-2 confirmation, all the study participants …

Dengue At Photharam Hospital: One Among Ten Clinical Trial Sites Of The World's First Dengue Vaccine, Anongrat Tiawilai, Chawin Tiawilai, Thawat Tiawilai, Nattachai Srisawat, Umaporn Limothai, Terapong Tantawichien, Usa Thisyakorn

Chulalongkorn Medical Journal

Background: Dengue, a viral disease transmitted by vectors, is widespread worldwide, impacting more than 120 nations. In 2019, a concerning 5.2 million dengue cases were reported, with Asia bearing 70% of the global burden. Half of the global population faces the risk of dengue.

Objectives: The goal of this research was to illustrate the epidemiological pattern of dengue patients admitted to Photharam Hospital in Ratchaburi province, Thailand, one of the ten clinical trial sites for the world's first dengue vaccine.

Methods: Data from dengue patients admitted to Photharam Hospital, a provincial healthcare center in Ratchaburi province, Thailand, covering the period …

Leishmania In Texas: A Contemporary One Health Scoping Review Of Vectors, Reservoirs, And Human Health, Morgan H Jibowu, Richard Chung, Nina L Tang, Sarah Guo, Leigh-Anne Lawton, Brendan J Sullivan, Dawn M Wetzel, Sarah M Gunter

Faculty, Staff and Students Publications

Leishmaniasis, a vector-borne neglected tropical disease, affects over 6.2 million people globally. Case acquisition is increasingly recognized in the United States, and in Texas, most reported cases are locally acquired and speciated to Leishmania mexicana. We conducted a scoping literature review to systematically assess contemporary research on Leishmania in humans, animals, reservoir hosts, or vectors in Texas after 2000. Out of 22 eligible studies, the most prevalent themes were case reports, followed by studies on domestic animals, reservoirs, and vectors, with several studies bridging multiple disciplines. Climate change, urbanization, and habitat encroachment appear to be driving the northward expansion …