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The Psychological Risks Of War Between The United States And China, Eugen Koh

New England Journal of Public Policy

The relationship between the United States and China has deteriorated over the past two decades and fears of escalating risks of war are regularly reported in global media. This article explores the psychological factors that contribute to the two superpowers shifting from a collaborative relationship to a competitive relationship, seeing each other as enemies, feeling increasingly threatened by each other, failing to consider the heightened sensitivities that arise from their respective traumatic pasts, triggering the collapse of thinking and unleashing of uncontainable emotionality, escalating accidents to conflict, and escalating conflict to war. It highlights the dangers of ignoring heightened trauma-related …

Understanding The Indirect Strategy Moment In Global Affairs, Kumar Ramakrishna

New England Journal of Public Policy

This article argues that policymakers need to better grasp what can best be understood as the “indirect strategy moment” in global affairs. It explains what is meant by indirect strategy in the classical strategic thought, before analyzing how indirect strategy has already been applied in the post-Cold War era. The article will then illustrate how indirect strategy is being applied in the cyber, social media, and telecommunications domains, before arguing that adopting “indirect strategy lenses” appears to be rather important in order to better frame current and ongoing geostrategic developments across a range of issues and domains. A recurring theme …

Cmsi Translations #4: Charging Into Battle—A Deeply Entwined Network: A Profile Of Wang Chengfei, Director Of A Research Office At The Naval Research Academy, Wang Kun, Ye Zhong, Zhou Huaiping

CMSI Translations

Wang Chengfei, Director of a research office and senior engineer at the Naval Research Academy, has presided over the initiation and evaluation of several major comprehensive information system equipment projects. He has compiled a development guide and technical requirements for Navy unmanned intelligent equipment technology systems, filled many specifications gaps, won a second- class Military Science and Technology Progress Award, obtained eight national defense patents, and was once awarded a third-class citation.

Ideology And Economic Change, Jared Rubin, Debin Ma

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the …

Parameters Summer 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2024 issue of Parameters. We open this issue with a special “In Memoriam” by General Charles A. Flynn, Commander US Army Pacific, honoring the life and legacies of our director and consummate colleague, Carol V. Evans. We dedicate this issue to her. General Flynn’s memoriam is followed by an In Focus commentary on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. We then feature three forums covering the Russia-Ukraine War, the Middle East, and Professional Development. This issue also contains special essays on the role of professional writing, the US Army War College’s Civil-Military Relations Center, …

Cmsi Translations #3: Discussion On The Requirements And Methods Of Intelligent Decision-Making In Torpedo Attacks By Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, Ma Liang, Guo Liqiang, Zhang Hui, Yang Jing, Liu Jian

CMSI Translations

Autonomous technology in unmanned equipment is currently the most dynamic frontier technology field, and improving the level of intelligent decision-making is an inevitable trend in the development of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). Torpedo attack decision-making is an important part of attack-type UUVs' attack missions, and it is also the basis and premise for forming self-organizing cross-domain collaboration, autonomous cluster confrontation, and other operational capabilities. Beginning by sorting through the characteristics of operational use and typical mission styles, this article summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of UUVs compared to manned platforms, analyzes the decision-making content different from traditional torpedo attacks, expounds …

China Maritime Report No. 38: Plan Anti-Submarine Warfare Aircraft - Sensors, Weapons, And Operational Concepts, Eli Tirk, Daniel Salisbury

CMSI China Maritime Reports

The PLA Navy recognizes the importance of a robust anti-submarine warfare (ASW) system to counter adversaries seeking undersea asymmetric advantages, and its aviation component is a key part of that system. This report discusses the PLAN's efforts to improve its airborne ASW platforms and equipment and describes how PLAN-affiliated sources discuss the employment of those assets. The PLAN's significant buildup and growing employment of fixed-wing maritime patrol aircraft in recent years are key indicators of the importance it attaches to the airborne ASW mission set, as is its push to acquire improved sensors on both fixed and rotary wing ASW …

A Red Awakening: An Analysis Of China’S Quest For Global Dominance Through Economic Alternative Warfare Methods, Sarah Beddingfield

Senior Honors Theses

In the 2023 annual meeting of China’s parliament, Chinese President Xi made it clear to his political leaders and the world that he was preparing for war. This should come as no surprise after analysis of China's grand strategy points clearly to the intent to surpass the U.S. as the premier global superpower in all respects. China has been building towards this goal for years through untraditional methods of warfare, forcing the national security community to reevaluate its own strategy and assess the Chinese threat through a different lens. This thesis seeks to address one specific area in which China …

Cmsi Translations #2: Dominating The Battlefield—The Advantages Of Unmanned Intelligent Combat Forces, Zhao Xiangang, Su Yanqin

CMSI Translations

In his report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping emphasized the need to accelerate the development of unmanned intelligent combat forces. Looking at the practice of local wars in recent years, unmanned combat forces as represented by drones have become an important part of the joint operational force system, playing an increasingly prominent role as an effectiveness multiplier. Especially with the advent of artificial intelligence technology and its rapid development and widespread use in the military field, unmanned systems are becoming more intelligent and autonomous, and unmanned intelligent operations are showing advantages and …

Break Their Lineage, Break Their Roots: Investigating The Chinese Government’S Relationship With The Uyghur Population To Determine The Potential For Terrorism And Genocide, Anya Veinberg

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

History is wrought with war, crime, and persecution. After nearly every conflict, world leaders vow to never let something similar happen again. Yet, history seems to repeat itself, and so do its conflicts. The Holocaust claimed the lives of millions of Jews and seemed to set a precedent of a modern threshold of evil. How many people would argue that an event strikingly similar to the Holocaust is happening right now in China?

The Chinese government is currently committing acts of violence and faith and race-based discrimination against the Uyghur population.

This work analyzes the interaction between the Chinese government …

Analysis Of Sun Tzu's Art Of War, Hannah Marchiny

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

America faces troubling times with various countries presenting unique threats. Few are more troubling than China. Now more than ever the U.S. needs effective strategies to combat global threats. To that end, I use Sun Tzu’s book Art of War as my main source for strategic wisdom. Sun Tzu’s principles have endured as long as they have because of their continued relevance in every generation and situation. In my paper, I discuss a few of the main tenets of Sun Tzu’s famous Art of War and how China is currently employing them against the U.S. I explain how China’s masterful …

Cmsi Translations #1: The “Cans” And “Cannots” Of The Military Application Of Artificial Intelligence, Zhang Long

CMSI Translations

The application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military field is an important force for promoting improvements in military technology and progress in the revolution of military affairs and is a key driver changing operational patterns and disrupting the form of war. In the upsurge of military applications of AI, we must think carefully about future decisions, deeply understand the technological hub (jishu shuniu) role of AI, dialectically view the functional boundaries of military applications of AI, and accurately grasp what AI "can" and "cannot" do. We must oppose both contemptuous and omnipotent theories of AI military application, …

Decisive Decade: Prc Global Strategy And The Pla As A Pacing Challenge – 2023 Pla Conference – Updated And Expanded

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations.

The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in …

Unmasking The Holder Of The Purse Strings: Countering Chinese Economic Coercion In The Indo-Pacific, Rachel L. Davis

Senior Honors Theses

The Indo-Pacific is a key focal point of U.S.-China competition due to its geographical, economic, and military significance. China is using political warfare to achieve its strategic goals in the region, influencing other nations to align with its interests. Economic coercion is a key tool of this warfare. This is evident in the Pacific Islands, among America’s treaty allies, in Southeast Asia, and in South Asia. To prove itself the superior partner, maintain access to key points of land, and keep the Indo-Pacific open for trade, the U.S. must counter China’s activities. This can be achieved via a stronger economic …

China Maritime Report No. 37: Re-Engaging With The World: China's Military Diplomacy In 2023, Jie Gao, Kenneth W. Allen

CMSI China Maritime Reports

China’s military diplomacy plays a crucial role in advancing the nation's foreign policy objectives and safeguarding its strategic interests. This report highlights a diverse array of activities within military diplomacy, including senior-level meetings, joint military exercises, naval port calls, UN peacekeeping operations, and academic exchanges. Our findings reveal a significant—but incomplete—recovery in China's military diplomacy activities in 2023, following a period of reduced contacts with foreign militaries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Southeast Asia and Russia remain primary partners for China, with emerging strategic importance also seen in Africa, Oceania, and the Middle East. Overall, China's military diplomacy underscores its efforts …

Cmsi Note #5: Admiral Wang Renhua: Exemplifying Jointness And Oversight For China’S Navy Amid Xi’S Grade-And-Rank Reforms, Andrew S. Erickson

CMSI Notes

CMSI’s Perspectives and Key Takeaways:

• Admiral Wang Renhua’s promotion is the latest indication of efforts to synchronize grade-andrank promotions at the full admiral/general level (three stars in the PLA).
• Wang’s role may be best understood as a military loyalty enforcement boss.
• A key responsibility for Wang may well be to root out and destroy Xi’s enemies within the PLA.
• A potential component of Wang’s portfolio in the navy realm could be to maintain a tight grip on the wardrooms aboard China’s growing fleet of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).
• Having Wang serve in the Navy, and currently as head of …

Island-Hopping With Chinese Characteristics—What The Prc Is Doing In The Pacific Islands, Why It Matters, And Why The Time Has Come To “Block And Build”, Cleo Paskal

Naval War College Review

China’s engagement with western Pacific island nations and its pursuit of influence over their affairs are driven by its conception of comprehensive national power and a need for reliable access from which it might challenge the U.S. military and eventually displace it from the region.

Reluctant Retrenchment—America’S Response To The Rise Of China, Robert S. Ross

Naval War College Review

China’s rise augurs a power transition that challenges the preeminent security position of the United States in East Asia and has led to an incoherent retrenchment that both undermines that position and complicates efforts to recapitalize the Navy to face that challenge effectively.

Walking The Tightrope: Protecting Research From Foreign Exploitation While Fostering Relationships With Foreign Scientists, C. John Cox

SLU Law Journal Online

In response to extensive foreign efforts to take advantage of U.S. scientific research, especially by the People’s Republic of China, the United States has taken steps to protect its scientific and technology efforts. Although steps to prevent foreign government exploitation of U.S. research are reasonable and justified, the United States should be cognizant of these actions' impact on collaboration with foreign scientists. It is in the interest of the United States to effect policy that fosters relationships with foreign scientists rather than push them away.

China Maritime Report No. 36: China's T-Agos: The Dongjian Class Ocean Surveillance Ship, Devin Thorne

CMSI China Maritime Reports

Since 2017, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has commissioned a new class of ocean surveillance vessel into its order of battle: the Type 927. Similar in design and function to the U.S. Navy’s Victorious and Impeccable class T-AGOS ships, the Type 927 was introduced to help remedy the PLAN’s longstanding weakness in anti-submarine warfare. The PLAN has likely built six Type 927 ships to date, most based for easy access to the South China Sea. In peacetime, these ships use their towed array sonar to collect acoustic data on foreign submarines and track their movements within and beyond the …

Parameters Spring 2024, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Us-Taiwan Relations And The Future Of The Liberal Order, Christina Lai

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Strengthening ties with Taiwan is the best chance the United States has to preserve the liberal international order in Asia and improve its security relative to China. This study offers a normative perspective on how Taiwan can contribute to US-led international institutions and the Asian regional order and reduce conflict risk. It concludes with recommendations for the United States and its partners to integrate Taiwan into multilateral institutions in Asia.

Toward A Strategic Art For Sanctions, David J. Katz

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

New strategic art is required to maneuver political economies to meet the demands of future engagements and campaigns. Current discussions of the projection of political-economic power are typically abstract, high-level, and policy-focused or present singular tactical actions as strategic actions, creating a gap for campaign practitioners. This article addresses the gap by drawing on Joint Planning, Joint Publication 5-0, and Joint Campaigns and Operations, Joint Publication 3-0, to further develop the concept and methodologies first introduced in the author’s earlier article “Multidimensionality: Rethinking Power Projection for the 21st Century.”

Apotheosis Of The State And The Decline Of Civilization: A Systems Approach, Robert Bedeski

Comparative Civilizations Review

Humanity is undergoing a second Axial Age. The first, as described by Karl Jaspers, brought transcendence into the vision and self-understanding of humans and the world. The rise of secularism and “Death of God” is dissolving and fragmenting that transcendence — a vital subsystem of the civilization system. Economy, knowledge and government comprise three additional subsystems and have coalesced to form the modern sovereign state, diminishing the traditional place of religion, art and philosophy in civilizations. An example of a state lacking common institutions of transcendence was the Mongol empire. Ruling Russia for a quarter millennium, its state form was …

Cmsi Note #4: Deck Cargo Ships: Another Option For A Cross-Strait Invasion, Conor M. Kennedy

CMSI Notes

CMSI Perspectives and Key Take-Aways:

• In addition to RO-RO ferries, the PLA also uses another class of RO-RO ship, the deck cargo ship, in sea transport training exercises.
• Deck cargo ships are widely used in China’s ocean engineering and construction industry, constituting an existing and large-scale volume of lift capacity.
• The simple design and relative ease of construction of deck cargo ships means they can quickly be built in large numbers.
• These vessels may be tasked to bring in large columns of logistics and follow-on forces to consolidate landing areas, possibly in waves not far behind landing assault forces.
• Deck …

International Competition In The High North: Kingston Conference On International Security 2022

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional study center, the Ted Stevens …

Cmsi Note #3: “Choose The Right Person, Choose The Right Path”: Taiwan’S Cross-Strait, National Security, And Defense Policies Under A Lai/Hsiao Administration, Julia M. Famularo

CMSI Notes

CMSI’s Perspectives and Key Takeaways:

• The incoming William Lai/Bi-khim Hsiao administration almost certainly intends to continue to execute and deepen President Tsai’s defense reforms. Lai has also stated his support for the implementation of an Indo-Pacific Strategy concept.
• Lai has an opportunity to leverage the national security experience of President Tsai’s outgoing advisors, who may potentially help his administration calibrate Taiwan’s responses to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military provocations in and around the Taiwan Strait.
• The Lai administration likely would prove receptive to U.S. and partner overtures that contribute to Taiwan’s ability to strengthen its maritime domain awareness and security; …

Cmsi Note #2: Admiral Dong Jun Engages Friends And Foes: China’S First Naval Defense Minister Brings Joint Operational Experience, Andrew S. Erickson, Christopher Sharman

CMSI Notes

On 29 December 2023, Admiral Dong Jun (董军) was appointed China’s 14th Minister of National Defense (国防部部长) at the seventh meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress. He replaced the previously deposed Army General Li Shangfu, ending a four-month leadership gap. Admiral Dong is the first PLA Navy (PLAN) officer to head China’s Ministry of National Defense (MND). Previously the 9th People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Commander, he was likewise exceptional in achieving this position from a background in theater joint operations.

China Maritime Report No. 34: Plan Submarine Training In The "New Era", Christopher Sharman, Terry Hess

CMSI China Maritime Reports

Since 2018, there have been significant changes to People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) submarine force training, and these changes have been driven by important revisions to strategic guidance and subsequent directives that focused PLA efforts to enhance its capabilities to operate in the maritime domain. While this guidance is applicable to all services, improving PLAN submarine force capabilities appears to have been of particular interest to senior Chinese leadership. This guidance expanded the PLA’s maritime domain requirements, which demanded that China’s submarine force improve its capabilities to operate independently or along with other PLAN assets at greater distances from coast …