Digital Commons Network^™

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Sinking City To Breakthrough City: A Political Analysis And Evaluation Of Indonesia's Capital City Relocation From Jakarta To Nusantara, Yuji Jones

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes Indonesia’s national decision to move its capital city from Jakarta to Nusantara. Indonesia is facing a dire catastrophe in its most populous city. The land surrounding Jakarta is sinking, and without significant mitigation efforts, the streets will be submerged by 2045. This is a slow-motion disaster coming for Indonesia and Jakarta. This left the country with a crucial decision: to save the capital city. In response to this environmental crisis, Indonesia’s government has committed to making a nationwide and ambitious decision to move the capital to Nusantara, a smaller city bustling with tropical forests 1,000 kilometers away, …

Audit Pricing Under Asc 606: Evidence From Software-As-A-Service Technology Firms, Donald Weigle

CMC Senior Theses

ASC 606 is an accounting standard issued in May 2014 that fundamentally changed how firms identify performance obligations and recognize revenue. The standard requires a five-step framework that links recognition to the timing of customer contract satisfaction. Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) firms were uniquely affected by this standard due to subscription-based pricing models and multi-element contracts that make revenue recognition more complex. For this thesis, I estimate the impact of adopting ASC 606 on SaaS firm audit fees. I hypothesize that more complex revenue recognition results in more complex audit procedures and, hence, higher fees. I use a Differences-in-Differences (DiD) regression model …

The Impact Of Asu 2023-08 On Reported Profitability Of Cryptocurrency-Exposed Firms, William C. Graff

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates the performance of corporate cryptocurrency holdings in the context of recent accounting regulation changes. It specifically examines how adopting Accounting Standards Update (ASU) 2023-08 has affected firms with material cryptocurrency exposure. Using a panel of U.S. public firms from 2019–2025, I classified 138 companies as having material crypto exposure if cryptocurrency comprised more than 0.01 percent of total assets, which was manually calculated. Of these firms, 67 were exposed to the rule change (under GAAP), 66 were not, and 5 were excluded from final calculations due to a lack of relevant information.

Results showed statistically significant effects …

Impact Of Attention And Yield Curve On Term Structure Of Equity, Matthew C. Aved

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the term structure of equity and specifically focuses on the impact of term spread and market attention. The paper builds on prior work that developed the concept by adding behavioral explanations for differences between the short-term and long-term returns while also attempting to link the term structure of equity and the bond yield curve. The study examines these influences by running t-tests and regressions on dividend strip and S&P 500 return data (1996-2017) and attention data collected by Bloomberg (2010-2017). The results provide some insight into how these variables influence short-term and long-term returns; however, limited instances …

Attention And Technical Analysis: State‑Dependent Predictability Of Cnn‑Based Stock Return Forecasts, Crystal Y. Ma

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies how investor attention around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements affects cross-sectional return predictability measured by a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on price charts. I replicate Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu’s (2023) image-based CNN using 20-day OHLCV “price images,” train it on U.S. equities from 1993–2000, freeze the model, and apply it out of sample to 2001–2024 CRSP data. The CNN assigns each stock a weekly probability of outperforming which is then sorted into deciles that form high–minus–low (H–L) long–short portfolios at horizons of 1 to 10 trading days. For matched non-FOMC (control) weeks, the equal-weighted CNN …

Investor Reactions To Clinical Trial Outcomes: Interpreting Impacts Using Ai-Based Measures Of Investor Sentiment, Sofia K. Weinstein

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how investors react to biotechnology firms’ clinical trial announcements and whether artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance our understanding of those market reactions. Using a representative sample of 95 firm-event observations between 2014 and 2025, the study measures cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding clinical readouts, regulatory decisions, and partnership disclosures. Event-study regressions test for heterogeneity across trial phase, therapeutic area, and textual sentiment derived from company press releases. Consistent with expectations, later-phase trials, particularly Phase II and III, produce stronger short-term abnormal returns. However, categorical variables such as phase or therapeutic area explain little of the total variation …

Policy Recommendations To Reduce False Confessions By Juveniles In Wrongful Conviction Cases, Rohit R. Iyer

CMC Senior Theses

This research focuses on false confessions by juveniles in the United States justice system. False confessions are statements made by suspects during investigations in which individuals provide statements to investigators admitting to a crime in which they had no part. In these cases, individuals often spend years, if not the entirety, of their lives behind bars for crimes they did not commit. False confessions are the result of a number of systemic factors that will be discussed in this paper. While relatively rare, they are one of the largest blemishes in the U.S. justice system. Juveniles – individuals below the …

Has Liberalism Failed? Analyzing The New Right’S Critique Of Liberalism Through Its Historical Arc, Frederick (Gus) G. Mahler

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the historical evolution of American political culture to evaluate whether liberalism is responsible for the social and political crises confronting the United States today. Although liberalism has been foundational to American governance and national identity since the country’s inception, a growing movement known broadly as the New Right now claims that it has failed and must be replaced. I seek to assess the legitimacy of this claim.

Using qualitative historical analysis, I trace how the form liberalism takes and the role it occupies in America’s political order has changed throughout the nation’s development. Liberalism was not always …

The Influence Of Injury Stimuli On Stress Levels In Female Rugby Players Post Injury., Hannah L. Maycock Miss

CMC Senior Theses

This article is a proposal of a study which explores the relationship between female rugby injuries and stress levels through measuring stress between different stimuli. I will recruit 195 participants from across the country to take part in the study. They will be assigned to one of three groups: no injury, ACL injury, and head injury based on their past injury experience. Their stress levels will be measured using the galvanic skin response measure, which will be used to compare the results of each group's stress throughout the study. The participants will all complete two measures of stress, one comparing …

Determinants Of The U.S. Experience Economy: A Macroeconomic, Demographic, And Technological Analysis, 1984–2023, Chloe Ross

CMC Senior Theses

Pine and Gilmore et al. 1999 examine American consumers’ preferences for experiences over durable goods. Since then, there has been a multitude of research on the psychology behind this shift in consumption preferences, and there has been an abundance of media coverage of the new “experience economy.” This thesis goes beyond psychology and examines the macroeconomic, demographic, and technological determinants of experiential spending in the United States from 1984 to 2023. I use annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) and variables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), US …

10 Years Of The Hive: Successes, Challenges, And Lessons For Designing Creative Learning Hubs In Higher Education, Celine Bernhardt-Lanier

CMC Senior Theses

College students are often told to be “innovative” and to prepare themselves for a rapidly changing job market. Yet, most institutional learning environments are built for everything but that, focusing on efficiency, mastery, and content delivery. The Hive, formerly known as the Rick and Susan Sontag Center for Collaborative Creativity, pushes against this reality in higher ed. Founded ten years ago and nestled in a corner of East 7th Street in Claremont, California, the Hive brings together students, faculty, and staff through workshops, classes, skillshares, and events that are centered around making, reflecting, and collaborating. Drawing on eight semi-structured …

Medical And Recreational Cannabis In Colorado: Evidence From County-Level Sales And Medical Cards, Ethan Sattley

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Colorado’s cannabis market transitioned after recreational legalization by analyzing county-level medical card registrations and the medical share of cannabis sales from 2010–2020. Using an event-study design, I find that medical participation remained stable for several years after recreational sales began in 2014, but then declined sharply, by roughly 50–60 cards per 10,000 residents, about ten quarters after legalization. Using annual sales data, I show that the medical share of total cannabis revenue collapsed much more quickly, falling by more than half between 2014 and 2015 and converging near zero in most counties by the late 2010s. …

Auditor Independence And Its Impact On Debt Financing Outcomes, Harry Zhou

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates whether perceived auditor independence, proxied through proportions of non-audit service fees and client dependence of the auditor, is associated with the outcome of debt contracts. While prior research examines how these proxies relate to auditor independence itself, and other strands of literature assess how audit quality influences debt contracting, few studies evaluate whether lenders interpret auditor independence signals in ways consistent with auditors. This study aims to contribute to the broader literature by examining the auditor independence proxies and its direct relationship to debt contract structure holistically. Two OLS models were employed to investigate the relationship between …

Behemoth Unbound: An Internal Critique Of Carl Schmitt’S Nazi-State Structure, Zaynamin Murtaza

CMC Senior Theses

This paper offers an internal critique of Carl Schmitt's Nazi-era state theory from the perspective of the counterrevolutionary political-theological tradition to which Schmitt belongs. Using Schmitt's political-theological method which holds that all political theories have a systematic theological structure, the paper argues that Schmitt's 1933 turn to National Socialism contradicts this tradition. The paper proceeds in five sections. The first establishes the political-theological framework that will be utilized throughout the paper. The second develops Schmitt's concept of the katechon—the restrainer of lawlessness drawn from Christian eschatology— which he uses as a model for his theory of the state. The …

Who Gets To Stay? Selective Compliance, Local Power, And The Politics In San Juan Capistrano, Daniel Fernández

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how California cities can satisfy state housing mandates while systematically under producing affordable housing. Using San Juan Capistrano as a case study, it documents a pattern of selective compliance. That is, a formal planning obligations are met while local governance tools, place-based identity, and discretionary processes that consistently filter housing outcome towards market-rate development and away from lower-income production. The findings suggest that closing California's affordability gap requires enforcement tools capable of reaching beyond formal planning compliance to address the governance mechanisms that shape what actually gets built.

Beyond Bans: A Travel Distance-Based Approach To Estimating The Effects Of Dobbs V. Jackson Women’S Health Organization On Fertility And Labor Supply, Enya Kamadolli

CMC Senior Theses

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision had highly heterogeneous effects on abortion access across U.S. states, variation I exploit to identify causal effects on fertility and labor supply. Rather than a binary “total ban” indicator, I construct a continuous treatment measure based on changes in distance to the nearest legal abortion provider between 2021 and 2023, and apply a difference-in-differences design to state-level panel data. Effects are attenuated and imprecise in the South, consistent with diminishing marginal effects at large distances. In non-Southern states, I find that a 100 km increase in distance raises total births by about …

Transformed, Not Resolved: Ethnic Federalism And The Politics Of Conflict In Ethiopia, Melayae L. Houser

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates whether Ethiopia's system of ethnic federalism resolved the longstanding conflicts that have characterized the country's political history or instead transformed them into new manifestations. Introduced in 1991 after the collapse of the Derg regime, ethnic federalism reorganized Ethiopia into ethnically defined regional states and granted groups constitutional rights to self-governance and self-determination. The system aimed to address historical grievances stemming from decades of centralized, exclusionary governance.

Employing a four-part analytical framework, this thesis analyzes two case studies: the Tigray War of 2020–2022 and the Oromia-Somali border conflict, to argue that ethnic federalism did not resolve Ethiopia's underlying …

Staring Into The Void: What Absolute Nothingness Reveals About Existence, Anxiety, And Love, Jasper Datta

CMC Senior Theses

We use contrast to understand the characteristics of the world. Green is understood in contrast to the possibility of being red or blue, and your identity is understood against the possible background of being someone else. In the philosophy of Nishida Kitaro, he extends this approach to define a concept of absolute nothingness, the thing in contrast to which being itself can be understood. In Chapter I, this thesis reconstructs the argument for absolute nothingness, explains how it is situated in Nishida’s broad system, and explores how it entails a philosophical contradiction we ought to accept. I then move on …

Competitive Balance And The Price Of Winning, Dominic Rolla

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis looks at whether Major League Baseball’s two main competitive balance policies — revenue sharing, which started in 1997, and the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), introduced in 2002 — have made the league more competitive. Using data on all 30 MLB franchises from 1997 through 2025, along with an extended league-level dataset going back to 1990, I run five regression models to test whether these policies improved competitive balance, whether the CBT changed the relationship between payroll and wins, whether team success became less persistent over time, whether winning drives franchise revenue, and whether payroll helps predict World Series …

David Vs. The Propaganda Machine: Péter Magyar And The Disruption Of Hungary’S Media Capture, Carrick G. Mollenkamp

CMC Senior Theses

The durability of competitive authoritarian regimes is often derived from media capture, a sophisticated system in which media institutions are structured to favor incumbent actors. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary serves as a quintessential example. For more than a decade, opposition actors were systematically denied meaningful access to the electorate, enabling Orbán to maintain his grip on power through consecutive elections. But that durability did not last. Drawing on Marius Dragomir’s media capture model and Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way’s framework of hybrid regimes, this thesis argues Péter Magyar’s landslide victory in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election exposed three vulnerabilities of media …

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Pillpetz: A Smarter Way To Encourage Medication Adherence In Children, John H. Begley

CMC Senior Theses

Medication adherence is usually framed as a problem of patient behavior, but this thesis argues that it is equally a problem of design. Children who take daily medication face barriers that adults often do not: developing executive function, dependence on caregivers, shifting school and home routines, privacy concerns, and stigma around being perceived as different. The standard prescription bottle, by contrast, was designed primarily for dispensing efficiency, safety, and accidental ingestion prevention—not for sustained daily use by a developing child.

This thesis proposes PillPetz, a smart pill case and digital companion that uses routine, play, dose confirmation, and caregiver-connected support …

From Endowment To Extraction: Critical Mineral Governance And Supply-Chain Integration In The Arctic, Charles Bollwerk

CMC Senior Theses

Annexing Greenland, making Canada the 51st State – what’s it all about? Critical minerals are often treated as a geological and national security problem that can be fixed through strength and coercion. This thesis argues that, in the Arctic, governance structures are what determine whether critical mineral wealth becomes strategically useful. Through a comparative qualitative analysis of Greenland, Canada, Alaska, Russia, and the Nordic countries, it examines what drives variation in critical mineral extraction and supply-chain integration across Arctic states, an especially relevant topic as Western states seek to reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled supply chains. The analysis applies four variables …

Revenue Sharing: Effects On Small Market Teams, Bryant Smaaladen

CMC Senior Theses

The gap between small market teams and big market teams in the MLB

has done nothing but grow in this era, seeing vast differences in payroll and

performance. To try and counteract this, team revenue sharing was introduced in

1996 to try and level the playing field. Revenue sharing was designed to promote

a more competitive balance by redistributing resources from higher revenue

teams towards ones in smaller markets. This study aims to examine the impact

revenue sharing has on team payrolls, and particularly examining the difference

between both markets, by using panel data of teams revenue and the amount …

Revenge Of The Interceptors? The Dod, Congress, And The Return Of Space-Based Missile Defense During Trump 45, Chad Mcelroy

CMC Senior Theses

The initiation of the Golden Dome for America program has brought space-based missile defense (SBMD) to the forefront of American national security policy and rekindled debates that had laid dormant since the administration of President Ronald Reagan. How, forty-two years after President Reagan first proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative, did SBMD return as a national priority? In lieu of public information about the ongoing Golden Dome initiative, this thesis explores the first Trump administration, otherwise known as Trump 45, in order to analyze the development of SBMD proposals by its proponents in Congress and the Department of Defense. I used …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

From Reconstruction To The Carceral State: Law, Labor, And Punishment In Black America, Nicolas S. Changbencharoen

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the reconfiguration of racial and labor subordination in the United States from Reconstruction to the present, arguing that the legal abolition of slavery did not dismantle the economic and institutional structures on which it rested. It traces a continuous trajectory through which law and the criminal justice system were systematically weaponized to reconstitute slavery's essential functions under successive institutional forms, each serving as a deliberate mechanism for the extraction of Black labor in service of private and state interests. The analysis culminates in an examination of the modern carceral state, concluding that contemporary prison labor programs continue …

Goods, Practices, Excellence, And The Law: Steps To An Internal Theory Of Value, Rowan Gray

CMC Senior Theses

Practices are the coherent and complex social activities we spend much of our lives engaging in. This category encompasses everything from figure skating to wine-tasting to friend relationships. We gain immense value from participating in practices, and philosophers have articulated a number of accounts for where the value emerges from and how we can best experience it. Many of these theories are ‘externalist’, because they posit that value is incidental to practices and emerges from outside of them.

In contrast, this thesis will argue that the value in practices is internal to each practice. The value comes from each practice’s …

Interpretable Sample Uncertainty Measures For Ranked-Choice Election Polls, Jason Liang

CMC Senior Theses

Polling results from traditional single-choice plurality elections are readily interpretable. Simple frequentist population parameters are estimated, including each candidate’s total support and the size of the front runner's lead. If the point estimate for the size of the front runner's lead exceeds the margin of error of the lead, we can conclude that the poll shows a statistically significant front runner. However, the interpretability of these population statistics disappears when applied to ranked-choice voting elections. Because ballots rank multiple candidates and candidates are eliminated in rounds, simple population-wide parameters are not well-defined. In RCV elections, a candidate’s ability to win …