Digital Commons Network^™

Impact Of Extreme Heatwaves On Population Exposure In China Due To Additional Warming, Leibin Wang, Robert V. Rohli, Qigen Lin, Shaofei Jin, Xiaodong Yan

Faculty Publications

Extreme heatwaves are among the most important climate-related disasters affecting public health. Assessing heatwave-related population exposures under different warming scenarios is critical for climate change adaptation. Here, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble output results are applied over several warming periods in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report, to estimate China’s future heatwave population exposure under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Our results show a significant increase in projected future annual heatwave days (HD) under both scenarios. With an additional temperature increase of 0.5 °C to 2.0 °C of warming, by mid-century …

Rates Of Future Climate Change In The Gulf Of Mexico And The Caribbean Sea: Implications For Coral Reef Ecosystems, A. E. Lawman, S. G. Dee, K. L. Delong, A. M.S. Correa

Faculty Publications

Rising temperatures and ocean acidification due to anthropogenic climate change pose ominous threats to coral reef ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and the western Caribbean Sea. Unfortunately, the once structurally complex coral reefs in the GoM and Caribbean have dramatically declined since the 1970s; relatively few coral reefs still exhibit a mean live coral cover of >10%. Additional work is needed to characterize future climate stressors on coral reefs in the GoM and the Caribbean Sea. Here, we use climate model simulations spanning the period of 2015–2100 to partition and assess the individual impacts of climate stressors on …

Rural-Urban Differences In Breast Cancer Surgical Delays In Medicare Beneficiaries, Ronnie J. Zipkin, Andrew Schaefer, Changzhen Wang, Andrew P. Loehrer, Nirav S. Kapadia, Gabriel A. Brooks, Tracy Onega, Fahui Wang, Alistair J. O’Malley, Erika L. Moen

Faculty Publications

Background: Delays between breast cancer diagnosis and surgery are associated with worsened survival. Delays are more common in urban-residing patients, although factors specific to surgical delays among rural and urban patients are not well understood. Methods: We used a 100% sample of fee-for-service Medicare claims during 2007–2014 to identify 238,491 women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer undergoing initial surgery and assessed whether they experienced biopsy-to-surgery intervals > 90 days. We employed multilevel regression to identify associations between delays and patient, regional, and surgeon characteristics, both in combined analyses and stratified by rurality of patient residence. Results: Delays were more prevalent among …

The Role Of A Green Bank In South Carolina: A Market & Feasibility Assessment, Jory Fleming, Claire Windsor

Faculty Publications

A market and feasibility report that explores the role of a green bank in South Carolina. This report is the culmination of a multi-year process that included a comprehensive market assessment and interviews with over 60 organizations across South Carolina. It demonstrates that a green bank could play a vital role in South Carolina by creating a dedicated institution working to accelerate the flow of capital to projects that seek to reduce carbon pollution and increase resilience to climate impacts.

Impacts Of Ocean-Atmosphere Teleconnection Patterns On The South-Central United States, Robert V. Rohli, Gregg A. Snedden, Elinor R. Martin, Kristine L. Delong

Faculty Publications

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural …

A Structural Equation Modeling Analysis To Explore Diabetes Self-Care Factors In A Rural Sample, Laurie Abbott, Lucinda Graven, Glenna Schluck, Jennifer Lemacks

Faculty Publications

Diabetes is a public health problem that requires management to avoid health sequelae. Little is known about the determinants that influence diabetes self-care activities among rural populations. The purpose of this analysis was to explore the relationships among diabetes self-care activities, diabetes knowledge, perceived diabetes self-management, diabetes fatalism, and social support among an underserved rural group in the southern United States. A diabetes health promotion program was tested during a cluster randomized trial that tested a disease risk reduction program among adults living with prediabetes and diabetes. A structural equation model was fit to test psychosocial factors that influence diabetes …

Trumpism, Climate And Covid: Social Bases Of The New Science Rejection, Lawrence C. Hamilton

Faculty Publications

Generalized structural equation modeling (GSEM) of 2021 US survey data tests Trumpism (approval of ex-president Trump) as an emergent political-identity indicator, descendant from the classical divisions by party and ideology but exerting its own distinct influence on two existentially important cases of science rejection: the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), and vaccination against COVID-19.

Architecture And Agency For Equity In Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction, Lisa M. Campbell, Robin Fail, Rebecca Horan, Leslie Acton, Jeffrey E. Blackwatters

Faculty Publications

The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Decade) bring increased attention to various aspects of ocean governance, including equity. One of the Ocean Decade's identified challenges is to develop a sustainable and equitable ocean economy, but questions arise about how to conceptualize the multiple dimensions of equity in an ocean context. These questions become more complex as activities move away from coastal ecosystems and communities into off-shore Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ), where ocean resources are recognized simultaneously as unowned/open access and as common heritage. In this paper, …

Valley-Floor Snowfall In Taylor Valley, Antarctica, From 1995 To 2017: Spring, Summer And Autumn, Madeline E. Myers, Peter T. Doran, Krista F. Myers

Faculty Publications

We present an analysis of the 20 year snowfall dataset in Taylor Valley and the results of a new snow cover monitoring study. Snowfall has been measured at four sites in Taylor Valley from 1995 to 2017. We focus on valley-floor snowfall when wind does not exceed 5 m s-1, and we exclude winter from our analysis due to poor data quality. Snowfall averaged 11 mm water equivalent (w.e.) from 1995 to 2017 across all stations and ranged from 1 to 58 mm w.e. Standard deviations ranged from 3 to 17 mm w.e., highlighting the strong interannual variability of snowfall …

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis To Develop Adaptation Options Against Extreme Coastal Floods, Xinmeng Shan, Jun Wang, Jiahong Wen, Hengzhi Hu, Lei Wang, Jie Yin, Mengya Li

Faculty Publications

Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise and land subsidence will …

Mission Planning For Low Altitude Aerial Drones During Water Sampling, Michael E. Hodgson, Nikolaos I. Vitzilaios, Michael L. Myrick, Tammi L. Richardson, Matt Duggan, Kazi Ragib I. Sanim, Michail Kalaitzakis, Bhanuprakash Kosaraju, Caitlyn English, Zechariah Kitzhaber

Faculty Publications

Mission planning for small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) as a platform for remote sensors goes beyond the traditional issues of selecting a sensor, flying altitude/speed, spatial resolution, and the date/time of operation. Unlike purchasing or contracting imagery collections from traditional satellite or manned airborne systems, the sUAS operator must carefully select launching, landing, and flight paths that meet both the needs of the remote sensing collection and the regulatory requirements of federal, state, and local regulations. Mission planning for aerial drones must consider temporal and geographic changes in the environment, such as local weather conditions or changing tidal height. One …

Optimization Of Solar-Coal Hybridization For Low Solar Augmentation, Aaron T. Bame, Joseph Furner, Ian Hoag, Kasra Mohammadi, Kody Powell, Brian D. Iverson

Faculty Publications

This work presents a process to determine the preliminary optimal configuration of a concentrating solar power-coal hybrid power plant with low solar augmentation, and is demonstrated on a regenerative steam Rankine cycle coal power plant in Castle Dale, UT, USA (average DNI of 542 W m⁻²). A representative plant model is developed and validated against published data for a coal power plant. The simplifications that lead to the representative model from a coal power plant model include combining multiple feedwater heaters, combining turbines, and using a mass-average calculation for extraction steam properties. Comparing net power generation and boiler …

Using Narrative Cycles To Advance Teacher Educators’ Emotional Work And Practice In An Era Of Affective Polarization, Ramona Maile Cutri, Eric Ruiz Bybee, Erin Feinauer Whiting

Faculty Publications

‘Affective polarization’ refers to the amount of negativity that people feel for those who belong to a political party other than their own. This self-study reports on our particular use of a narrative cycle model and documents its validity as a tool for doing the emotional work of exploring contradictions in one’s practice without the pressure of engaging in public emotional discourses. We focused on the contra- diction between our intention to teach anti-oppressive teacher edu- cation and inadvertently silencing students who exhibited affective polarization. Our narrative inquiry analysis documented patterns of our thoughts, feelings, and behaviors that we assert …

Three Dimensions Of Covid-19 Risk Perceptions And Their Socioeconomic Correlates In The United States: A Social Media Analysis, Shan Qiao Ph.D., Zhenlong Li Ph.D., Chen Liang Ph.D., Xiaoming Li Ph.D., Caroline Rudisill Ph.D.

Faculty Publications

Social media analysis provides an alternate approach to monitoring and understanding risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 over time. Our current understandings of risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 do not disentangle the three dimensions of risk perceptions (perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and negative emotion) as the pandemic has evolved. Data are also limited regarding the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) on COVID-19-related risk perceptions over time. To address these knowledge gaps, we extracted tweets regarding COVID-19-related risk perceptions and developed indicators for the three dimensions of risk perceptions based on over502 million geotagged tweets posted by over 4.9 million Twitter users …

Three Dimensions Of Covid-19 Risk Perceptions And Their Socioeconomic Correlates In The United States: A Social Media Analysis, Shan Qiao, Zhenlong Li, Caroline Rudsill

Faculty Publications

Social media analysis provides an alternate approach to monitoring and understanding risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 over time. Our current understandings of risk perceptions regarding COVID-19 do not disentangle the three dimensions of risk perceptions (perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and negative emotion) as the pandemic has evolved. Data are also limited regarding the impact of social determinants of health (SDOH) on COVID-19-related risk perceptions over time. To address these knowledge gaps, we extracted tweets regarding COVID-19-related risk perceptions and developed indicators for the three dimensions of risk perceptions based on over 502 million geotagged tweets posted by over 4.9 million Twitter …

Chlorine-36 Surface Exposure Dating Of Late Holocene Moraines And Glacial Mass Balance Modeling, Monte Sierra Nevada, South-Central Chilean Andes (38°S), Brittany N. Price, Nathan D. Stansell, Alfonso Fernández, Joseph M. Licciardi, Alia J. Lesnek, Ariel Muñoz, Mary K. Sorensen, Edilia Jaque Castillo, Tal Shutkin, Isabella Ciocca, Ianire Galilea

Faculty Publications

The development of robust chronologies of Neoglaciation from individual glaciers throughout the high-altitude Andes can provide fundamental knowledge of influences such as regional temperature and precipitation variability, and aid in predicting future changes in the Andean climate system. However, records of Late Holocene glaciation from the Central Chilean Andes are sparse, and often poorly constrained. Here, we present ³⁶Cl surface exposure ages, dendrochronologic constraints, and glacial mass balance modeling simulations of Late Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Central-South Chilean Andes. A series of concentric moraine ridges were identified on Monte Sierra Nevada (38°S), where exposure dating of basaltic boulders …

Was The Decline Of Saltmarsh Tabanid Populations After The 2010 Oil Spill Associated With Change In The Larval Food Web?, Claudia Husseneder, Devika R. Bhalerao, Lane D. Foil

Faculty Publications

Horse flies of the species Tabanus nigrovittatus and Tabanus acutus are native to coastal marshlands. Their larvae are apex invertebrate predators, and their development is dependent on the food web in the marsh sediment. Surveillance of T. nigrovittatus after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico showed population crashes of adult flies in southeast Louisiana marshes near oil landfall, but not in southwest Louisiana where oil did not reach. Sediment collection in 2011 from Louisiana marshes showed a near-complete absence of larvae in the southeast yet high numbers in the southwest. We hypothesized that oil contamination …

From Soils To Streams: Connecting Terrestrial Carbon Transformation, Chemical Weathering, And Solute Export Across Hydrological Regimes, Hang Wen, Pamela L. Sullivan, Sharon A. Billings, Hoori Ajami, Alejandro Cueva, Alejandro Flores, Daniel R. Hirmas, Aaron N. Koop, Katie Murenbeeld, Xi Zhang, Li Li

Faculty Publications

Soil biota generates carbon that exports vertically to the atmosphere (CO2) and transports laterally to streams and rivers (dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, DOC and DIC). These processes, together with chemical weathering, vary with flow paths across hydrological regimes; yet an integrated understanding of these interactive processes is still lacking. Here we ask: How and to what extent do subsurface carbon transformation, chemical weathering, and solute export differ across hydrological and subsurface structure regimes? We address this question using a hillslope reactive transport model calibrated using soil CO2 and water chemistry data from Fitch, a temperate forest at the ecotone …

Planetary-Scale Change To The Biosphere Signalled By Global Species Translocations Can Be Used To Identify The Anthropocene, Mark Williams, Reinhold Leinfelder, Anthony D. Barnosky, Martin J. Head, Francine M.G. Mccarthy, Alejandro Cearreta, Stephen Himson, Rachael Holmes, Colin N. Waters, Jan Zalasiewicz, Simon Turner, Mary Mcgann, Elizabeth A. Hadly, M. Allison Stegner, Paul Michael Pilkington, Jérôme Kaiser, Juan Carlos Berrio, Ian P. Wilkinson, Jens Zinke, Kristine L. Delong

Faculty Publications

We examine three distinctive biostratigraphic signatures of humans associated with hunting and gathering, landscape domestication and globalization. All three signatures have significant fossil records of regional importance that can be correlated inter-regionally and help describe the developing pattern of human expansion and appropriation of resources. While none have individual first or last appearances that provide a globally isochronous marker, all three signatures overlap stratigraphically, in that they are part of a continuum of change, with complex regional patterns. Here we show that during the later stages of globalization, late nineteenth to twentieth century records of species translocations can be used …

Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Development Classification Utilizing Machine Learning And Synoptic Composites, Rupsa Bhowmick, Jill C. Trepanier, Alex M. Haberlie

Faculty Publications

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms−1). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are …

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions To Protect Permafrost Ecosystems, Benjamin W. Abbott, Michael Brown, Joanna C. Carey, Jessica G. Ernakovich, Jennifer M. Frederick, Laodong Guo, Gustaf Hugelius, Raymond M. Lee, Michael M. Loranty, Robie Macdonald, Paul J. Mann, Susan M. Natali, David Olefeldt, Pam Pearson, Abigail Rec, Martin Robards, Verity G. Salmon, Sara Sayedi, Christina Schadel, Edward A. G. Schuur, Sarah Shakil, Arial J. Shogren, Jens Strauss, Suzanne E. Tank, Brett F. Thornton, Rachael Treharne, Merritt Turetsky, Carolina Voigt, Nancy Wright, Yuanhe Yang, Jay P. Zarnetske, Qiwen Zhang, Scott Zolkos

Faculty Publications

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know …

Inhibitory Control Of Emotional Interference In Deaf Children: Evidence From Event-Related Potentials And Event-Related Spectral Perturbation Analysis, Qiong Chen, Junfeng Zhao, Huang Gu, Xiaoming Li Ph.D.

Faculty Publications

Background: Impairment of interference control ability may reflect a more general deficit in executive functioning, and lead to an increase in internal-externalized problems such as impulsivity, which has been reported in deaf children. However, few researches have examined the neural mechanism of this impairment.

Methods: This study applied the electroencephalogram (EEG) technique to investigate the interference control ability in 31 deaf children and 28 hearing controls with emotional face-word stroop task.

Results: Results from behavioral task showed that deaf children exhibited lower accuracy compared to hearing controls. As for EEG analysis, reduced activation of ERP components in N1 and enhanced …

Forecasting Country Conflict Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann, Darryl K. Ahner, Raymond R. Hill

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to examine whether changing the clustering of countries within a United States Combatant Command (COCOM) area of responsibility promotes improved forecasting of conflict. Design/methodology/approach — In this paper statistical learning methods are used to create new country clusters that are then used in a comparative analysis of model-based conflict prediction. Findings — In this study a reorganization of the countries assigned to specific areas of responsibility are shown to provide improvements in the ability of models to predict conflict. Research limitations/implications — The study is based on actual historical data and is purely data driven. …

Robust Network Stability Of Mosquitoes And Human Pathogens Of Medical Importance, Donald A. Yee, Catherine Dean Bermond, Limarie J. Reyes-Torres, Nicole S. Fijman, Nicole A. Scavo, Joseph Nelsen, Susan H. Yee

Faculty Publications

Background: The exact number of mosquito species relevant to human health is unknown, posing challenges in understanding the scope and breadth of vector–pathogen relationships, and how resilient mosquito vector–pathogen networks are to targeted eradication of vectors.

Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey to determine the associations between mosquito species and their associated pathogens of human medical importance. For each vector–pathogen association, we then determined the strength of the associations (i.e., natural infection, lab infection, lab dissemination, lab transmission, known vector). A network analysis was used to identify relationships among all pathogens and vectors. Finally, we examined how …

The Inequalities Of Innovation, Colleen Chien

Faculty Publications

Over the last few decades, the United States has become more innovative, but the gains have been distributed unequally. In 2020, over 50% of new U.S. patents went to the top 1% of patentees, and more than 50% of all patents of U.S. origin were generated by just five states, all coastal. Less than 13% of inventors were women. The economic, geographic, and demographic concentration of innovation highlight how the intersections between two traditionally discrete topics—innovation and inequality—have become increasingly relevant. But rather than any single inequality, this Article argues, multiple inequalities—of income, opportunity, and access—have relevance to innovation. Examining …

Association Of Medicaid Expansion With Emergency Department Visits By Medical Urgency, Theodoros V. Giannouchos, Benjamin Ukert, Christina Andrews Ph.D.

Faculty Publications

Importance Relatively little is known about the association of the Medicaid eligibility expansion under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act with emergency department (ED) visits categorized by medical urgency.

Objective To estimate the association between state Medicaid expansions and ED visits by the urgency of presenting conditions.

Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study used the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Emergency Department Databases from January 2011 to December 2017 for 2 states that expanded Medicaid in 2014 (New York and Massachusetts) and 2 states that did not (Florida and Georgia). Difference-in-differences regression models were used to estimate …

Prisoners Of Scale: Downscaling Community Resilience Measurements For Enhanced Use, Sahar Derakshan, Leah Blackwood, Margot Habets, Julia F. Effgen, Susan L. Cutter

Faculty Publications

As improved data availability and disaster resilience knowledge help progress community resilience quantification schemes, spatial refinements of the associated empirical methods become increasingly crucial. Most existing empirically based indicators in the U.S. use county-level data, while qualitatively based schemes are more locally focused. The process of replicating resilience indices at a sub-county level includes a comprehensive study of existing databases, an evaluation of their conceptual relevance in the framework of resilience capitals, and finally, an analysis of the statistical significance and internal consistency of the developed metrics. Using the U.S. Gulf Coast region as a test case, this paper demonstrates …

Climate Change Reshuffles Northern Species Within Their Niches, Laura H. Antao, Benjamin Weigel, Giovanni Strona, Maria Hallfors, Elina Kaarlejarvi, Tad Dallas, Oystein H. Opedal, Janne Heliola, Heikki Henttonen, Otso Huitu, Erkki Korpimaki, Mikko Kuussaari, Aleksi Lehikoinen, Reima Leinonen, Andreas Lindén, Paivi Merila, Hannu Pietianinen, Juha Poyry, Maija Salemaa, Tiina Tonteri, Kristiina Vuorio, Otso Ovaskainen, Marjo Saastamoinen, Jarno Vanhatalo, Tomas Roslin, Anna-Liisa Laine

Faculty Publications

Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position …

An Assessment Of The Extremes And Impacts Of The February 2021 South-Central U.S. Arctic Outbreak, And How Climate Services Can Help, Rebecca A. Bolinger, Vincent M. Brown, Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Karin L. Gleason, T. Andrew Joyner, Barry D. Keim, Amanda Lewis, John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Crystal J. Stiles, William Tollefson, Hannah E. Attard, Alicia M. Bentley

Faculty Publications

In February 2021, a widespread cold-air outbreak, with two associated winter storm systems, impacted the South-Central United States. After a comprehensive summary of the synoptic setup and a day-by-day analysis of the event, we assess the significance of the storm from a climatological perspective. Concerning winter precipitation, there were isolated instances of record snowfall accumulations. While freezing rain and freezing drizzle both occurred, total freezing precipitation accumulations did not exceed a one-in-50 year event. The duration of the cold was notable — many stations across the region broke records for the highest number of consecutive days below freezing. When analyzing …

Covid-19 And Transition To Distance Learning: Perspectives Of Postsecondary Teachers In Kenya, James Ogechi Kereri, Grace Moraa Kennedy, Dovison Kereri

Faculty Publications

Several countries have transitioned to online and/or virtual learning to minimize the impact of Covid-19 on education. In Kenya, schools were closed for the better part of 2020 and reopened back on relying on an online mode and/or virtual learning. However, very little is known about the impact of such transition on postsecondary educators. Therefore, this research aims to bridge this gap by investigating the impact of online and/or virtual learning transition on postsecondary educators based on age, gender, location, and academic rank. Using a nationally distributed web-based survey, the study utilized data from 117 educators across Kenya who participated …