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Culture, Identity, And Information Technology In The 21st Century: Implications For U.S. National Security, Pauline Kusiak Dr. Aug 2012

Culture, Identity, And Information Technology In The 21st Century: Implications For U.S. National Security, Pauline Kusiak Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

While it is impossible to predict the values and beliefs of future generations, a modest forecast is made by tracing global trends in the use of language and media, as well as in the use of information and communication technologies. The potential implications of these culture and identity trends for the strength of the U.S. “signal” in the global info-communication sphere are analyzed. The author suggests that the information that will dominate the 21st century, particularly the beliefs and values of foreign societies, may increasingly and more directly impact our own national security, making it ever more critical for policymakers …


Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, And Military Perspectives, Stephen J. Blank Dr. Jun 2012

Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, And Military Perspectives, Stephen J. Blank Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

These three papers represent the first panel of papers from SSI’s annual Russia conference that took place in September 2011. They assess the nature of Russia's political system, economy, and armed forces and draw conclusions, even sharp and provocative ones, concerning the nature and trajectory of these institutions. The three papers presented here offer attempts to characterize first of all, the nature of the state; second, the prospects for economic reform within that state—perhaps the most pressing domestic issue and one with considerable spillover into defense and security agendas as well—in contemporary Russia; and third, the nature and lasting effects …


Lessons Of The Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program For Iraq's Future And The Arab Revolutions, W. Andrew Terrill Dr. May 2012

Lessons Of The Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program For Iraq's Future And The Arab Revolutions, W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. The author analyzes the nature of Iraqi de-Ba’athification and carefully evaluates the rationales and results of actions taken by both Americans and Iraqis involved in the process. While there are many differences between the formation of Iraq’s post-Saddam Hussein government and the current efforts of some Arab Spring governing bodies to restructure their political institutions, it is possible to identify parallels between Iraq and Arab Spring countries. As in Iraq, new Arab Spring governments will have to apportion …


The Role Of Small States In The Post-Cold War Era: The Case Of Belarus, Dmitry Shlapentokh Dr. May 2012

The Role Of Small States In The Post-Cold War Era: The Case Of Belarus, Dmitry Shlapentokh Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The United States is no longer the only global center of power as it was in the first years of post-Cold War era. Neither are there just two superpowers — the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics — that define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power that will provide the opportunity for small states, such as Belarus, to move from one center of power to the other and/or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia …


Ambassador Stephen Krasner's Orienting Principle For Foreign Policy (And Military Management)—Responsible Sovereignty, Max G. Manwaring Dr. Apr 2012

Ambassador Stephen Krasner's Orienting Principle For Foreign Policy (And Military Management)—Responsible Sovereignty, Max G. Manwaring Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The principle security threat of the past several centuries—war between or among major powers—is gone. Two new types of threats have been introduced into the global security arena. Violent nonstate actors and other indirect political, economic, and social causes of poverty, social exclusion, corruption, terrorism, transnational crime, the global drug problem, and gangs are a few examples of these “new” threats to global security and stability. More and more, national security implies protection—through a variety of nonmilitary and military ways and means—of popular interests that add up to well-being. This broadened definition of the contemporary security problem makes the concept …


Enabling Unity Of Effort In Homeland Response Operations, Kerry Mcintyre Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.), H Steven Blum Lieutenant General (Ret.) Apr 2012

Enabling Unity Of Effort In Homeland Response Operations, Kerry Mcintyre Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.), H Steven Blum Lieutenant General (Ret.)

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Any significant homeland response event requires Americans to work together. This is a complex challenge. The authors assert that the principal obstacle to effective homeland response is a recurring failure to achieve unity of effort across a diverse and often chaotic mix of participating federal, state, and local government and nongovernmental organizations. Despite a decade of planning since the terror attacks of September 2001, unity of effort still eludes us—particularly in the largest and most dangerous of crises. The authors examine how the military’s joint doctrine system affected joint military operational capabilities, concluding that a similar national homeland response doctrinal …


Drug Trafficking, Violence, And Instability, Phil Williams Dr., Vanda Felbab-Brown Dr. Apr 2012

Drug Trafficking, Violence, And Instability, Phil Williams Dr., Vanda Felbab-Brown Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Although challenges posed by various kinds of violent armed groups initially appear highly diverse and unrelated to one another, in fact they all reflect the increasing connections between security and governance and, in particular, the relationship between poor governance and violent armed groups. In many cases, these groups are overtly challenging the state; in others they are cooperating and colluding with state structures while subtly undermining them; in yet others, the state is a passive bystander while violent armed groups are fighting one another. The mix is different, the combinations vary, and the perpetrators of violence have different motives, methods, …


Delegitimizing Al-Qaeda: A Jihad-Realist Approach, Paul Kamolnick Dr. Mar 2012

Delegitimizing Al-Qaeda: A Jihad-Realist Approach, Paul Kamolnick Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Disrupting, dismantling, and ultimately defeating al-Qaeda based and inspired terrorism is a declared policy of the U.S. Government. Three key strategic objectives have been identified for accomplishing this: attacking al-Qaeda’s terror network, undermining radicalization and recruitment, and hardening homeland defense. The present monograph proposes a distinct "jihad-realist" approach for undermining radicalization and recruitment to al-Qaeda. First, a brief discussion of six means for ending terrorist organizations is provided. Second, the premises of a jihad-realist approach are described. Third, a jihad-realist shari’a case against al-Qaeda’s terrorism is presented. In conclusion, key assertions are summarized, and several specific policy recommendations offered for …


Categorical Confusion? The Strategic Implications Of Recognizing Challenges Either As Irregular Or Traditional, Colin S. Gray Dr. Feb 2012

Categorical Confusion? The Strategic Implications Of Recognizing Challenges Either As Irregular Or Traditional, Colin S. Gray Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Strategic theory should educate to enable effective strategic practice, but much of contemporary theory promotes confusion, not clarity, of suitable understanding. A little strategic theory goes a long way, at least it does if it is austere and focused on essentials. Unfortunately, contemporary strategic conceptualization in the U.S. defense community is prolix, over-elaborate, and it confuses rather than clarifies. Recent debate about irregular, as contrasted allegedly with traditional, challenges to U.S. national security have done more harm than good. Conceptualization of and for an operational level of war can imperil the truly vital nexus between strategy and tactics. In much …


Once Again, The Challenge To The U.S. Army During A Defense Reduction: To Remain A Military Profession, Don M. Snider Dr. Feb 2012

Once Again, The Challenge To The U.S. Army During A Defense Reduction: To Remain A Military Profession, Don M. Snider Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

As with the post-Cold War downsizing during the Clinton administration in the late 1990s, one critical challenge for the U.S. Army centers on the qualitative, institutional character of the Army after the reductions—will the U.S. Army manifest the essential characteristics and behavior of a military profession with Soldiers and civilians who see themselves sacrificially called to a vocation of service to country within a motivating professional culture that sustains a meritocratic ethic, or will the Army’s character be more like any other government occupation in which its members view themselves as filing a job, motivated mostly by the extrinsic factors …


Organizational Change In The Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons Of The Georgian Conflict, Rod Thornton Dr. Dec 2011

Organizational Change In The Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons Of The Georgian Conflict, Rod Thornton Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in Russian media and society has, in fact, escaped fairly lightly during the comprehensive reform of the Russian Army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been down to the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant-General Vladimir Shamanov. Close to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Shamanov--a "maverick"--has used his political connections to …


The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry And The Future Of Middle East Security, W. Andrew Terrill Dr. Dec 2011

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry And The Future Of Middle East Security, W. Andrew Terrill Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. In most respects, Saudi Arabia is a regional status quo power, while Iran often seeks revolutionary change throughout the Gulf area and the wider Middle East with varying degrees of intensity. Saudi Arabia also has strong ties with Western nations, while Iran views the United States as its most …


Chinese Lessons From Other People’S Wars, Andrew Scobell, David Lai, Roy Kamphausen Nov 2011

Chinese Lessons From Other People’S Wars, Andrew Scobell, David Lai, Roy Kamphausen

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 12th annual Carlisle Conference on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) took place at the U.S. Army War College, in Pennsylvania October 22-24, 2010. The topic for this year’s conference was the PLA’s lessons from other people’s wars. Participants at the conference sought to discern what lessons the PLA has been learning from the strategic and operational experiences of the armed forces of other countries during the past three decades.


Arms Control And Proliferation Challenges To The Reset Policy, Stephen J. Blank Dr. Nov 2011

Arms Control And Proliferation Challenges To The Reset Policy, Stephen J. Blank Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The current U.S. reset policy with Russia involves efforts to blaze a path of mutual cooperation on arms control and proliferation. In arms control, we see determined administration attempts to promote greater nuclear reductions in the direction of nuclear zero, including reductions in tactical nuclear weapons. This necessarily leads Moscow to raise issues of missile defense in Europe that it vehemently opposes. This monograph analyzes Russia’s position on these arms control issues and examines the chances for the United States to achieve its arms control goals in the foreseeable future. It also looks at the Russian position with regard to …


Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History And The Low Probability Of Disarmament, Jonathan Pearl Mr. Nov 2011

Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History And The Low Probability Of Disarmament, Jonathan Pearl Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

A vigorous debate is occurring among American elites with respect to whether and when the United States should relinquish its nuclear weapons. Bolstering hopes for tangible results is that a U.S. President is again publicly and forcefully supporting disarmament. While this debate, which addresses both technical and political factors related to abolition, may be the most serious one of its kind since the dawn of the nuclear age, the future of U.S. nuclear weapons policy remains uncertain. The general approach advanced today in U.S. policy circles largely hews, after all, to the logic of the past 65 years: arms control …


The Afghanistan Question And The Reset In U.S.-Russian Relations, Richard J. Krickus Dr. Oct 2011

The Afghanistan Question And The Reset In U.S.-Russian Relations, Richard J. Krickus Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan represents a solid test of their reset in relations. The author provides the historical background to the Afghanistan Question and assesses current events in the Afghan war with three objectives in mind: 1) To determine whether Russian-American cooperation in Afghanistan has been successful; 2) To identify and evaluate the successes and failures of the counterinsurgency strategy as the transition from U.S. to Afghanistan authority gains traction in the 2011-14 time frame; and 3) To provide conclusions and recommendations bearing on developments in Afghanistan.


Presidential Succession Scenarios In Egypt And Their Impact On U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations, Gregory Aftandilian Mr. Oct 2011

Presidential Succession Scenarios In Egypt And Their Impact On U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations, Gregory Aftandilian Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Although this monograph was written before the pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt in January 2011, it examines the important question as to who might succeed President Hosni Mubarak by analyzing several possible scenarios and what they would mean for U.S. strategic relations with Egypt. The monograph first describes the importance of Egypt in the Middle East region and gives an overview of the U.S.-Egyptian strategic relationship. It then examines the power structure in Egypt to include the presidency, the military, and the ruling party. The monograph next explores various succession scenarios. Although some of the scenarios outlined in this monograph are …


Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Challenge For U.S. National Security, Paul Rexton Kan Dr. Oct 2011

Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Challenge For U.S. National Security, Paul Rexton Kan Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Since 2006, when Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels, there has been a rise in the number of Mexican nationals seeking political asylum in the United States to escape the ongoing drug cartel violence in their home country. Political asylum cases in general are claimed by those who are targeted for their political beliefs or ethnicity in countries that are repressive or are failing. Mexico is neither. Nonetheless, if the health of the Mexican state declines because criminal violence continues, increases, or spreads, U.S. communities will feel an even greater burden on their systems of public …


Adapting, Transforming, And Modernizing Under Fire: The Mexican Military 2006-11, Inigo Guevara Moyano Mr. Sep 2011

Adapting, Transforming, And Modernizing Under Fire: The Mexican Military 2006-11, Inigo Guevara Moyano Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Since December 2006, when Felipe Calderon assumed the office of the President, Mexico has embarked upon the implementation of a culture of law and security that has triggered a war with organized crime involving all sectors of society. This implementation has activated a series of renovations in its armed forces, which remain the most trusted institutions in Mexican society. This Letort Paper contributes to an understanding of the structure, culture, motivators, and the challenges that the Mexican military faces in the 21st century. The Paper also provides a clear picture of doctrinal and structural transformations, adaptations, and improvements that the …


Threat Posed By Mounting Vigilantism In Mexico, George W. Grayson Dr. Sep 2011

Threat Posed By Mounting Vigilantism In Mexico, George W. Grayson Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Until the 1980s, Mexico enjoyed relative freedom from violence. Ruthless drug cartels existed, but they usually abided by informal rules of conduct hammered out between several capos and representatives of the dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled the country until the 1990s. Relying on bribes, the desperados pursued their illicit activities with the connivance of authorities. In return for the legal authorities turning a blind eye, drug dealers behaved discretely, shunned high-tech weapons, deferred to public figures, spurned kidnapping, and even appeared with governors at their children’s weddings. Unlike their Colombian counterparts, Mexico’s barons did not seek elective office. …


Puncturing The Counterinsurgency Myth: Britain And Irregular Warfare In The Past, Present, And Future, Andrew Mumford Dr. Sep 2011

Puncturing The Counterinsurgency Myth: Britain And Irregular Warfare In The Past, Present, And Future, Andrew Mumford Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph holds that an aura of mythology has surrounded conventional academic and military perceptions of British performance in the realm of irregular warfare. It identifies 10 myths regarding British counterinsurgency performance and seeks to puncture them by critically assessing the efficacy of the British way of counterinsurgency from the much-vaunted, yet over-hyped, Malayan Emergency to the withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq in 2009. It challenges perceptions of the British military as an effective learning institution when it comes to irregular warfare and critically assesses traditional British counterinsurgency strategic maxims regarding hearts and minds and minimum force.


China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, And Strategic Position, R. Evan Ellis Dr. Aug 2011

China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, And Strategic Position, R. Evan Ellis Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph examines Chinese military engagement with Latin America in five areas: (1) meetings between senior military officials; (2) lower-level military-to-military interactions; (3) military sales; (4) military-relevant commercial interactions; and, (5) Chinese physical presence within Latin America, all of which have military-strategic implications. This monograph finds that the level of PRC military engagement with the region is higher than is generally recognized, and has expanded in important ways in recent years: High-level trips by Latin American defense and security personnel to the PRC and visits by their Chinese counterparts to Latin America have become commonplace. The volume and sophistication of …


The North Atlantic Treaty Organization And The European Union's Common Security And Defense Policy: Intersecting Trajectories, Sarwar A. Kashmeri Mr. Jul 2011

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization And The European Union's Common Security And Defense Policy: Intersecting Trajectories, Sarwar A. Kashmeri Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

NATO used to be the world’s most formidable military alliance. But its original reason for existence, the Soviet Union, disintegrated years ago, and its dreams of being a world cop are withering in the mountains of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the European Union’s (EU) Common Security & Defense Policy (CSDP) has deployed 27 successful military/civil missions from Africa to Asia in the last 10 years. Through CSDP, Europeans are increasingly taking charge of managing their own foreign and security policy. NATO is no longer the sole and preeminent Euro-Atlantic security actor. But watching NATO fade into irrelevance would be a mistake. It …


Russia In The Arctic, Stephen J. Blank Dr. Jul 2011

Russia In The Arctic, Stephen J. Blank Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Arctic has returned with a vengeance as an area of international contention. Beginning in 2007, Russia has continued to make aggressive moves and claims regarding territory in the Arctic Ocean. These moves undoubtedly have been prompted by global climate change and the importance of energy, with which Russia believes the Arctic is lavishly supplied. These moves apparently were intended to compel other Arctic states, like Norway, to come to terms with Russia. Nonetheless, the tendency to invoke military and security issues and instruments in this region of the world continues apace. These essays, taken from SSI's 2010 conference on …


The New Aztecs: Ritual And Restraint In Contemporary Western Military Operations, Zhivan Alach Dr. Jul 2011

The New Aztecs: Ritual And Restraint In Contemporary Western Military Operations, Zhivan Alach Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Western way of war has come full circle. After centuries of evolution toward increased totality and brutality, it has turned back once again to the ritualistic and restrained methods of primitive warfare. Largely, this has been due to an interaction between the perceived lack of utility in contemporary warfare, developing humanitarian public opinion, and increasing professionalism among militaries. The significance of these evolutionary trends in the way that the West engages in modern warfare is that they are potentially dangerous, and they include the possibility that the West will be unprepared for a future foe whose defeat requires more …


The Russian Military And The Georgia War: Lessons And Implications, Ariel Cohen Dr., Robert E. Hamilton Colonel Jun 2011

The Russian Military And The Georgia War: Lessons And Implications, Ariel Cohen Dr., Robert E. Hamilton Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

In August 2008, the armed conflict on the territory of Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia broke out between Russia and Georgia. The Russian-planned military campaign lasted 5 days until the parties reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement on August 12. The European Union, led by the French presidency, mediated the ceasefire. After signing the agreement, Russia pulled most of its troops out of uncontested Georgian territories, but established buffer zones around Abkhazia and South Ossetia. On August 26, 2008, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, making them a part of what Russian President Dmitry Medvedev …


The European Campaign: Its Origins And Conduct, Samuel J. Newland Dr., Clayton K. S. Chun Dr. Jun 2011

The European Campaign: Its Origins And Conduct, Samuel J. Newland Dr., Clayton K. S. Chun Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The authors begin with an examination of prewar planning for various contingencies, then move to the origins of “Germany first” in American war planning. They then focus on the concept, favored by both George C. Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower, that the United States and its Allies had to conduct a cross-channel attack and undertake an offensive aimed at the heartland of Germany. Following this background contained in the initial chapters, the remainder of the book provides a comprehensive discussion outlining how the European Campaign was was carried out. The authors conclude that American political leaders and war planners established …


Resolving Insurgencies, Thomas R. Mockaitis Dr. Jun 2011

Resolving Insurgencies, Thomas R. Mockaitis Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Understanding how insurgencies may be brought to a successful conclusion is vital to military strategists and policymakers. This study examines how past insurgencies have ended and how current ones may be resolved. Four ways in which insurgencies have ended are identified. Clear-cut victories for either the government or the insurgents occurred during the era of decolonization, but they seldom happen today. Recent insurgencies have often degenerated into criminal organizations that become committed to making money rather than fighting a revolution, or they evolve into terrorist groups capable of nothing more than sporadic violence. In a few cases, the threatened government …


Military Modernization And The Russian Ground Forces, Rod Thornton Dr. Jun 2011

Military Modernization And The Russian Ground Forces, Rod Thornton Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Russia’s political leaders are currently pushing a state- and society-wide process of modernization. The Russian military, a deeply conservative institution, is being asked to accept fundamental changes that threaten the very livelihoods of those being asked to implement them. New structures can be created and new equipment and technologies procured, but the crucial element is the degree to which such changes are accepted by the human element. This is often the most difficult aspect in any process of organizational change. It is no wonder that the military modernization process is progressing slowly in Russia. The Russian ground forces will not …


Rebuilding Armed Forces: Learning From Iraq And Lebanon, Florence Gaub Dr. May 2011

Rebuilding Armed Forces: Learning From Iraq And Lebanon, Florence Gaub Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Security Force Assistance becomes more and more important not only in the post-conflict reconstruction process, but also in a more general way in the foreign policy of the United States. Looking into the experience of both Iraq and Lebanon, this monograph offers useful insights for future military assistance programs and reconstruction efforts. While current assistance programs are certainly of high quality in technical terms, this publication sheds light on the equally important, yet often overlooked social dimension. Elements such as ethnic composition, exclusion of politically compromised personnel, and the armed forces’ image in society will determine the military’s future success …