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Russia After Putin, Richard J. Krickus Dr. May 2014

Russia After Putin, Richard J. Krickus Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Despite many obstacles, the leadership in Washington and Moscow must find ways to address security threats even as the United States rebalances toward Asia. Moreover, he agrees with prominent statesmen like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger that ultimately, Russia must be integrated into a Euro-Atlantic security system. The unexpected events of September 2013 that have resulted in a United Nations resolution compelling Syria to surrender its chemical weapons and a re-start of the Geneva negotiations to find a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian crisis offers evidence that a partnership, even if limited and fragile, is plausible. …


The Evolution Of Los Zetas In Mexico And Central America: Sadism As An Instrument Of Cartel Warfare, George W. Grayson Dr. Apr 2014

The Evolution Of Los Zetas In Mexico And Central America: Sadism As An Instrument Of Cartel Warfare, George W. Grayson Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The United States has diplomatic relations with 194 independent nations. Of these, none is more important to America than Mexico in terms of trade, investment, tourism, natural resources, migration, energy, and security. In recent years, narco-violence has afflicted Mexico with more than 50,000 drug-related murders since 2007 and some 26,000 men, women, and children missing. President Enrique Peña Nieto has tried to divert national attention from the bloodshed through reforms in energy, education, anti-hunger, health-care, and other areas. Even though the death rate has declined since the chief executive took office on December 1, 2012, other …


Augmenting Our Influence: Alliance Revitalization And Partner Development, John R. Deni Dr. Apr 2014

Augmenting Our Influence: Alliance Revitalization And Partner Development, John R. Deni Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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As the United States and its allies prepare to withdraw most of their military forces from Afghanistan and following the end of the war in Iraq, fundamental questions have arisen over the future of American Landpower. Among them are the role of allies and partners in terms of contributing to the safeguarding of shared global interests, the implications of the Pacific rebalancing for American alliances worldwide, and the role of Landpower in identifying, developing, and maintaining critical alliances, partnerships, and other relationships. To examine these and other questions, as well as to formulate potential solutions to …


Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After The U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting The Kurds On The Map?, Bill Park Mr. Mar 2014

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After The U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting The Kurds On The Map?, Bill Park Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy. Tensions have since been compounded by the discovery of significant quantities of oil and gas in the KRG area, and Erbil’s pursuit of an energy policy independent of and in opposition to Baghdad. Turkey, uneasy with the increasingly sectarian and authoritarian flavor of the Shia-dominated government in …


Legality In Cyberspace: An Adversary View, Andrew Monaghan Dr., Keir Giles Mr. Mar 2014

Legality In Cyberspace: An Adversary View, Andrew Monaghan Dr., Keir Giles Mr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

While conflict in cyberspace is not new, the legality of hostile cyber activity at a state level remains imperfectly defined. While there is broad agreement among the United States and its allies that cyber warfare would be governed by existing laws of armed conflict, with no need for additional treaties or conventions to regulate hostilities online, this view is not shared by many nations that the United States could potentially face as adversaries. The author illustrates the very distinct set of views on the nature of conflict in cyberspace that pertains to Russia. He provides an important window into Russian …


Russia's Counterinsurgency In North Caucasus: Performance And Consequences, Ariel Cohen Dr. Mar 2014

Russia's Counterinsurgency In North Caucasus: Performance And Consequences, Ariel Cohen Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a decade ago—the underlying social, economic, and political issues of the region remain. A low-level insurgency continues to persist in the North Caucasus region, with occasional terrorist attacks in the Russian heartland. There are few reasons to expect any substantial improvement in the situation for years to come. Chechnya functions as …


The Chinese People's Liberation Army And Information Warfare, Larry M. Wortzel Dr. Mar 2014

The Chinese People's Liberation Army And Information Warfare, Larry M. Wortzel Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

On November 23, 2013, the Chinese government announced plans to establish a new air defense intercept zone which will include the Diaoyu or Senkaku Islands, sovereignty over which is disputed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. Due to complaints of cyber penetrations attributed to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, U.S. Departments of Justice, Homeland Security, and State are devising new means to protect intellectual property and secrets from the PLA’s computer network operations. This monograph explains how the PLA is revising its operational doctrine to meet what it sees as the new mode of “integrated, joint operations” for the 21st century. …


Defense Planning For National Security: Navigation Aids For The Mystery Tour, Colin S. Gray Dr. Mar 2014

Defense Planning For National Security: Navigation Aids For The Mystery Tour, Colin S. Gray Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The challenge that is defense planning includes: "educated futurology" and the humanities as methodological approaches; futurists and scenarios, trend spotting and defense analysis; the impossibility of science in studying the future; the impossibility of verification by empirical testing of hypotheses; the value of the humanities which are politics, strategy, and history for defense planning; the use and misuse of analogy; learning from history; why and how strategic history works; and recommendations for the Army. What can be learned from history and what cannot are discussed in this analysis.


U.S. Governmental Information Operations And Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool Or User Failure? Implications For Future Conflict, Steve Tatham Dr. Dec 2013

U.S. Governmental Information Operations And Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool Or User Failure? Implications For Future Conflict, Steve Tatham Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Through the prism of operations in Afghanistan, the author examines how the U.S. Government’s Strategic Communication (SC) and, in particular, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Information Operations (IO) and Military Information Support to Operations (MISO) programs, have contributed to U.S. strategic and foreign policy objectives. It assesses whether current practice, which is largely predicated on ideas of positively shaping audiences perceptions and attitudes towards the United States, is actually fit for purpose. Indeed, it finds that the United States has for many years now been encouraged by large contractors to approach communications objectives through techniques heavily …


Dangerous Ground: The Spratly Islands And U.S. Interests And Approaches, Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel Dec 2013

Dangerous Ground: The Spratly Islands And U.S. Interests And Approaches, Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The Spratly Islands warrant better understanding by U.S. policymakers in order to discuss nuanced responses to the region’s challenges. To attain that needed understanding, legal aspects of customary and modern laws are explored to analyze the differences between competing maritime and territorial claims and why and how the parties involved stake rival claims or maritime legal rights. Throughout the monograph, the policies of the United States are examined through its conflicted interests in the region. Recommendations for how the United States should engage these issues, a more appropriate task than trying to solve the disputes outright, …


Politics And Economics In Putin's Russia, Stephen J. Blank Dr. Dec 2013

Politics And Economics In Putin's Russia, Stephen J. Blank Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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In one way or another, the papers included in this monograph, from the Strategic Studies Institute’s annual conference on Russia in May 2012, all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because Russia may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or …


Central Asia After 2014, Stephen J. Blank Dr. Nov 2013

Central Asia After 2014, Stephen J. Blank Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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As NATO and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers: the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree, are all becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at SSI’s annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explaining what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is …


What Is Next For Mali? The Roots Of Conflict And Challenges To Stability, Dona J. Stewart Dr. Nov 2013

What Is Next For Mali? The Roots Of Conflict And Challenges To Stability, Dona J. Stewart Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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In March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential, fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decades old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights fueled by weapons from Libya and the belief that the Arab Spring could extend to northern Mali. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and their allies were quick to capitalize on the increasing chaos in a territory characterized by lack of government control and poverty and seized the major cities in the north. While French-led military intervention …


State Collapse, Insurgency, And Counterinsurgency: Lessons From Somalia, J. Peter Pham Dr. Nov 2013

State Collapse, Insurgency, And Counterinsurgency: Lessons From Somalia, J. Peter Pham Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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For more than 2 decades, Somalia has been the prime example of a collapsed state, resisting multiple attempts to reconstitute a central government, with the current internationally-backed regime of the “Federal Republic of Somalia” struggling just to maintain its hold on the capital and the southeastern littoral—thanks only to the presence of a more than 17,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force. Despite the desultory record, the apparent speedy collapse since late 2011 of the insurgency spearheaded by the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (Movement of Warrior Youth, al-Shabaab)—a militant Islamist movement with al-Qaeda links—has made it fashionable within some …


Building Better Armies: An Insider’S Account Of Liberia, Sean Mcfate Dr. Nov 2013

Building Better Armies: An Insider’S Account Of Liberia, Sean Mcfate Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Recent events in Mali, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere demonstrate that building professional indigenous forces is imperative to regional stability, yet few success stories exist. Liberia is a qualified “success,” and this study explores how it was achieved by the program’s chief architect. Liberia suffered a 14-year civil war replete with human rights atrocities that killed 250,000 people and displaced a third of its population. Following President Charles Taylor’s exile in 2003, the U.S. contracted DynCorp International to demobilize and rebuild the Armed Forces of Liberia and Ministry of Defense; the first time in 150 …


Changing Minds In The Army: Why It Is So Difficult And What To Do About It, Leonard Wong Dr., Stephen J. Gerras Dr. Oct 2013

Changing Minds In The Army: Why It Is So Difficult And What To Do About It, Leonard Wong Dr., Stephen J. Gerras Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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History and organizational studies both demonstrate that changing one’s mind is quite difficult, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that this change needs to occur. This monograph explains how smart, professional, and incredibly performance-oriented Army senior leaders develop frames of reference and then oftentimes cling to their outdated frames in the face of new information. It describes the influence of individual-level concepts—personality, cognitive dissonance reduction, the hardwiring of the brain, the imprints of early career events, and senior leader intuition—along with group level factors to explain how frames of reference are established, exercised, and rewarded. …


Nato Missile Defense And The European Phased Adaptive Approach: The Implications Of Burden-Sharing And The Underappreciated Role Of The U.S. Army, Steven J. Whitmore Mr., John R. Deni Dr. Oct 2013

Nato Missile Defense And The European Phased Adaptive Approach: The Implications Of Burden-Sharing And The Underappreciated Role Of The U.S. Army, Steven J. Whitmore Mr., John R. Deni Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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In 2010, NATO decided to expand its ballistic missile defense program, in part because of the American offer to include its European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) as the centerpiece of an expanded effort. For the Allies' part, few have actually contributed tangible ballistic missile defense assets, in terms of missile interceptors, radars or other sensors, or ballistic missile defense-related platforms. This is likely to have significant implications for the U.S. Army, which has an important but largely underappreciated role in NATO missile defense today. In particular, the Army is likely to face increased manpower demands, materiel …


An Assessment Of The Dod Strategy For Operating In Cyberspace, Thomas M. Chen Dr. Sep 2013

An Assessment Of The Dod Strategy For Operating In Cyberspace, Thomas M. Chen Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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In July 2011, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) issued the DoD Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace, which outlines five strategic initiatives: 1) Treat cyberspace as another operational domain; 2) Employ new defense operating concepts to protect DoD networks; 3) Partner with other U.S. Government agencies and the private sector; 4) Build relationships with U.S. allies and international partners to strengthen cyber security; and, 5) Leverage national intellect and capabilities through cyber workforce training and rapid technological innovation. First, the monograph explores the evolution of cyberspace strategy through a series of government publications leading up to …


The Real "Long War": The Illicit Drug Trade And The Role Of The Military, Geoffrey Till Professor Sep 2013

The Real "Long War": The Illicit Drug Trade And The Role Of The Military, Geoffrey Till Professor

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The 21st century has seen the growth of a number of nontraditional threats to international stability on which, trade, and thus U.S. peace and security, depends, and for the moment at least a reduced likelihood of continental scale warfighting operations, and something of a de-emphasis on major involvement in counterinsurgency operations. These nontraditional threats are, however, very real and should command a higher priority than they have done in the past, even in a period of budgetary constraint. The military have cost-effective contributions to make in countering the manufacture and distribution of illicit drugs, and in …


A Transatlantic Bargain For The 21st Century: The United States, Europe, And The Transatlantic Alliance, Ellen Hallams Dr. Sep 2013

A Transatlantic Bargain For The 21st Century: The United States, Europe, And The Transatlantic Alliance, Ellen Hallams Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

In the 21st century, the transatlantic bargain that has framed the relationship between the United States and its NATO allies is under more scrutiny than ever before. In a changed geopolitical environment, one characterized by the complexity of modern military operations, the growing power of China, and a climate of economic austerity in the West, a consensus has emerged on both sides of the Atlantic as to the need for a revised bargain to accommodate the changing dynamics of global politics. Washington is becoming less and less willing to tolerate what it sees as fundamental gaps within the Alliance—in defense …


Closing The Candor Chasm: The Missing Element Of Army Professionalism, Paul Paolozzi Colonel Sep 2013

Closing The Candor Chasm: The Missing Element Of Army Professionalism, Paul Paolozzi Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Candor stands as the keystone element in creating the foundation of trust in the Army, yet the topic is muted. Stewards of the Army Profession build trust through authentic communication—in education, training, and modeled in application. Candor was previously included in Army Doctrine, yet nearly no mention of it currently exists in professional military education and dialogue. Through personal experiences and review of literature, two examples—the demands placed on the Army Reserve Components and a review of the Army’s counseling and evaluation environment—serve as illustrations where candor requires revitalization. Candor must be reinforced to be valued …


Cartel Car Bombings In Mexico, John P. Sullivan Mr., Robert J. Bunker Dr. Aug 2013

Cartel Car Bombings In Mexico, John P. Sullivan Mr., Robert J. Bunker Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Contemporary Mexican cartel use of car bombs began in mid-July 2010 and has since escalated. Given the proximity to the United States, some literally within miles of the border, the car bombings, with about 20 incidents identified over the last 2 1/2 years, should be of interest to local, state, and federal U.S. law enforcement, the U.S. Army, and other governmental institutions which are providing increasing support to Mexican federal agencies. An historical overview and analysis of cartel car bomb use in Mexico provides context, insights, and lessons learned stemming from the Medellin and Cali cartel …


Development Of The Baltic Armed Forces In Light Of Multinational Deployments, James S. Corum Dr. Aug 2013

Development Of The Baltic Armed Forces In Light Of Multinational Deployments, James S. Corum Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Developing coalition security strategies within NATO has never been easy. However, it does help to have a thorough understanding of one’s allies and their concerns and perspectives. This monograph provides an in-depth view of how three Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) view current and future security threats and likely problems. It also recommends some ways in which the United States might respond to these issues.


The Causes Of Instability In Nigeria And Implications For The United States, Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel Aug 2013

The Causes Of Instability In Nigeria And Implications For The United States, Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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An understanding the political economy of Nigeria is needed to reveal the root causes of its many ethnic, religious, economic, and political problems and to address them for the long term. The pressures now weighing on Nigeria could literally fracture the state along deep fault lines if rampant corruption and partisanship continues. As mutually important partners for both of our interests in Africa, the United States should assist in specific but indirect ways to help Nigerians overcome their political economic problems. Within such assistance, the role of the U.S. military is particularly delicate but needed through …


The Effectiveness Of Drone Strikes In Counterinsurgency And Counterterrorism Campaigns, James Igoe Walsh Dr. Aug 2013

The Effectiveness Of Drone Strikes In Counterinsurgency And Counterterrorism Campaigns, James Igoe Walsh Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The United States increasingly relies on unmanned aerial vehicles to target insurgent and terrorist groups around the world. This monograph analyzes the available research and evidence that assesses the political and military consequences of drone strikes. It is not clear if drone strikes have degraded their targets, or that they kill enough civilians to create sizable public backlashes against the United States. Drones are a politically and militarily attractive way to counter insurgents and terrorists, but, paradoxically, this may lead to their use in situations where they are less likely to be effective and where they …


A Framework For Restructuring The Military Retirement System, John Z. Smith Dr., Roy A. Wallace Mr., David S. Lyle Colonel Jul 2013

A Framework For Restructuring The Military Retirement System, John Z. Smith Dr., Roy A. Wallace Mr., David S. Lyle Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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The current military retirement system has been integral to sustaining the All Volunteer Force (AVF). Mounting federal budget challenges, however, have raised concern that the program may become fiscally unsustainable. While several restructuring proposals have emerged, none have considered the implications of these changes to the broader issue of manning an AVF. Changes to the existing system could create military personnel shortfalls, adversely affect servicemember and retiree well-being, and reduce public confidence in the Armed Forces. With the right analytical framework in place, however, a more holistic system restructuring is possible, one that avoids these negative …


The North Atlantic Treaty Organization And Libya: Reviewing Operation Unified Protector, Florence Gaub Dr. Jun 2013

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization And Libya: Reviewing Operation Unified Protector, Florence Gaub Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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On March 17, 2011, a month after the beginning of the Libyan revolution, with up to 2,000 civilians dead, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) decided on backing a no-fly zone over Libya and authorized “all necessary measures” to protect civilians. While France, Great Britain, and the United States took immediate military action using air and missile strikes, considerations to hand over military actions to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) emerged within days of the operation. On March 22, 2012, NATO agreed to enforce the arms embargo against Libya; 2 days later, it announced to …


The Future Of The Arab Gulf Monarchies In The Age Of Uncertainties, Mohammed El-Katiri Dr. Jun 2013

The Future Of The Arab Gulf Monarchies In The Age Of Uncertainties, Mohammed El-Katiri Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Seismic cultural and political shifts are under way in the Arab Gulf monarchies. The political upheavals and transitions that have swept through the Arab world over the last 2 years have not toppled the Arab Gulf rulers, but did not leave them untouched, either. Rulers of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states face heightened internal and external challenges and uncertainties. Pro-democracy protests and calls are extending from Bahrain to other oil-rich countries of the Arabian Peninsula. The expectations of GCC citizens, particularly the educated youth, are increasingly moving from socio-economic demands to political ones. They are now …


Joint Strategic Planning System Insights: Chairmen Joint Chiefs Of Staff 1990 To 2012, Richard M. Meinhart Dr. Jun 2013

Joint Strategic Planning System Insights: Chairmen Joint Chiefs Of Staff 1990 To 2012, Richard M. Meinhart Dr.

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Military leaders at many levels have used strategic planning in various ways to position their organizations to respond to the demands of the current situation while simultaneously preparing to meet future challenges. This Paper will first describe the Chairman’s statutory responsibilities and strategic challenges, because this affects leaders and the focus of the strategic planning system. The Paper then briefly examines how the Joint Strategic Planning System (JSPS)changed in five major ways during the time period of 1990 to 2012 before describing in greater detail the key products and processes of the current system. The Paper …


Nigerian Unity: In The Balance, Gerald Mcloughlin Mr., Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel Jun 2013

Nigerian Unity: In The Balance, Gerald Mcloughlin Mr., Clarence J. Bouchat (Usaf, Ret.) Lieutenant Colonel

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

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Nigeria’s future as a unified state is in jeopardy. Those who make or execute U.S. policy will find it difficult to advance U.S. interests in Africa without an understanding of the pressures that tear and bind Nigeria. Despite this, the centrifugal forces that tear at the country and the centripetal forces that have kept it whole are not well understood and rarely examined. After establishing Nigeria’s importance to the United State as a cohesive and functioning state, this monograph examines the historic, religious, cultural, political, physical, demographic, and economic factors that will determine Nigeria’s fate. It …