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The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Ulrika Ahrsjö, Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme, Marieke Schnabel Aug 2025

The Effect Of Education Policy On Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective, Ulrika Ahrsjö, Costas Meghir, Mårten Palme, Marieke Schnabel

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We examine the intergenerational effect of education policy on crime. Using administrative data that links outcomes across generations with crime records, we show that the Swedish comprehensive school reform, gradually implemented between 1949 and 1962, reduced conviction rates for both the generation directly affected by the reform and their sons. The reduction in conviction rates occurred in several types of crime. Mediation analysis suggests that key channels include increased parental educational attainment and household income, as well as reduced criminal behavior among fathers.

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Decomposing Trends In The Gender Gap For Highly Educated Workers, Joseph G. Altonji, John Eric Humphries, Yagmur Yuksel, Ling Zhong Aug 2025

Decomposing Trends In The Gender Gap For Highly Educated Workers, Joseph G. Altonji, John Eric Humphries, Yagmur Yuksel, Ling Zhong

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the gender gap in log earnings among full-time, college-educated workers born between 1931 and 1984. Using data from the National Survey of College Graduates and other sources, we decompose the gender earnings gap across birth cohorts into three components: (i) gender differences in the relative returns to undergraduate and graduate fields, (ii) gender-specific trends in undergraduate field, graduate degree attainment, and graduate field, and (iii) a cohortspecific “residual component” that shifts the gender gap uniformly across all college graduates. We have three main findings. First, when holding the relative returns to fields constant, changes in fields of …

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Offline Contextual Bandits In The Presence Of New Actions, Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi, Yusuke Narita, Yuki Sasamoto, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa, Yuta Saito Aug 2025

Offline Contextual Bandits In The Presence Of New Actions, Ren Kishimoto, Tatsuhiro Shimizu, Kazuki Kawamura, Takanori Muroi, Yusuke Narita, Yuki Sasamoto, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa, Yuta Saito

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Automated decision-making algorithms drive applications in domains such as recommendation systems and search engines. These algorithms often rely on off-policy contextual bandits or off-policy learning (OPL). Conventionally, OPL selects actions that maximize the expected reward within an existing action set. However, in many real-world scenarios, actions—such as news articles or video content—change continuously, and the action space evolves over time compared to when the logged data was collected. We define actions introduced after deploying the logging policy as new actions and focus on the problem of OPL with new actions. Existing OPL methods cannot learn and select new actions because …

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Order Statistics As Finite Mixtures, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Charles Hodgson, Kevin O’Neill Aug 2025

Order Statistics As Finite Mixtures, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Charles Hodgson, Kevin O’Neill

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a new way to obtain identification results using order statistics as finite mixtures with two key properties: i) the weights are known integer numbers; and ii) the elements of the mixture are the distributions of the maximum over a subset of the original random variables. We leverage Exponentiated Distributions (ED), which extend extreme value theory results. ED are max-stable, and we show that finite mixtures of ED are linearly independent. This enables us to derive non-parametric identification results and extend commonly known results using Gumbel and Fréchet distributions, both examples of ED. The results have broad applications in …

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The Global Gender Distortions Index (Ggdi), Pinelopi Goldberg, Charles Gottlieb, Somik Lall, Meet Mehta, Michael Peters, Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan Aug 2025

The Global Gender Distortions Index (Ggdi), Pinelopi Goldberg, Charles Gottlieb, Somik Lall, Meet Mehta, Michael Peters, Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan

Discussion Papers

The extent to which women participate in the labor market varies greatly across the globe. If such differences reflect distortions that women face in accessing good jobs, they can reduce economic activity through a misallocation of talent. In this paper, we build on Hsieh et al. (2019) to provide a methodology to quantify these productivity consequences. The index we propose, the ”Global Gender Distortions Index (GGDI)”, measures the losses in aggregate productivity that gender-based misallocation imposes. Our index allows us to separately identify labor demand distortions (e.g., discrimination in hiring for formal jobs) from labor supply distortions (e.g., frictions that …

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Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang Aug 2025

Cross Section Curve Autoregression: The Unit Root Case, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liang Jiang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper is part of a joint study of parametric autoregression with cross section curve time series, focussing on unit root (UR) nonstationary curve data autoregression. The Hilbert space setting extends scalar UR and local UR models to accommodate high dimensional cross section dependent data under very general conditions. New limit theory is introduced that involves two parameter Gaussian processes that generalize the standard UR and local UR asymptotics. Bias expansions provide extensions of the well-known results in scalar autoregression and fixed effect dynamic panels to functional dynamic regressions. Semiparametric and ADF-type UR tests are developed with corresponding limit theory …

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Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data, Steven T. Berry, Christian Cox, Philip A. Haile Aug 2025

Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data, Steven T. Berry, Christian Cox, Philip A. Haile

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study voting in general elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. Our data set includes demographics and turnout of all registered voters for the years 2016–2020, as well as vote shares at the precinct and contest level. We estimate a Downsian voting model incorporating rich observed and unobserved heterogeneity at the voter and contest level. We find that voters with high perceived voting costs tend to favor Democrats, as do marginal voters in most districts. Variation in state voting policies accounts for a modest share of overall estimated voting costs but is sufficient to determine the majority party in …

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Outsourcing, Labor Market Frictions, And Employment, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong Aug 2025

Outsourcing, Labor Market Frictions, And Employment, Mayara Felix, Michael B. Wong

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We estimate the labor market impacts of Brazil’s 1993 outsourcing legalization us-ing North-South variation in pre-legalization court permissiveness, and comparing security guards to less-affected occupations. We find that outsourcing legalization persistently reallocated jobs from older incumbent guards to younger entrants. Total employ-ment of guards and their entry from informality persistently increased, while average demographic-adjusted wages remained constant. Meanwhile, a wave of occupational layoffs displaced some incumbent guards from high-wage firms. The evidence suggests that the rise of non-core activity outsourcing reduced labor market frictions, facilitated by firm-level economies of scale in human resources and spillovers to non-adopting firms.

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College Application Mistakes And The Design Of Information Policies At Scale, Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, Christopher Neilson Aug 2025

College Application Mistakes And The Design Of Information Policies At Scale, Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, Christopher Neilson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We examine whether large-scale information interventions can improve college application outcomes in a centralized admissions system. Using nationwide surveys from Chile, we document widespread information frictions and frequent application mistakes, such as omitting attainable preferred programs or failing to include safety options. To address these frictions, we partnered with the Ministry of Education to implement a large-scale field experiment that provided applicants with personalized information on admission probabilities and program characteristics through customized online platforms. The intervention increased the probability that previously unmatched students received an assignment by 44% and improved placement into higher-ranked programs by 20%. Building on these …

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Review Of Teaching Primary Source Research Skills To 21st-Century Learners, Alexandra Y. Bush Jul 2025

Review Of Teaching Primary Source Research Skills To 21st-Century Learners, Alexandra Y. Bush

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

In Teaching Primary Source Research Skills to 21st-Century Learners, Julie Thomas offers guidance and encouragement to instructors of primary source research skills. Largely without sacrificing detail or quality of analysis, Thomas provides information on existing resources, required literacies and competencies, pedagogical theory, and advice on programmatic sustainability that are accessible to readers at a wide range of professional levels. Drawing on benchmarks and taxonomies across disciplines, this book outlines the components and considerations needed to sustain a primary source research skills teaching program. The text offers an accessible and extensible method of deepening one’s understanding of the field while …

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Review Of Comic Books, Special Collections, And The Academic Library, Nicholas Wantsala Jul 2025

Review Of Comic Books, Special Collections, And The Academic Library, Nicholas Wantsala

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

Comic Books, Special Collections, and the Academic Library is a pioneering scholarly work by Brian Flota and Katie Morris that documents the integration of comic books into archival special collections and academic libraries. This book, inspired by the donation of Flota's father's extensive comic collection to James Madison University, traces the growth of comic books as scholarly resources and library holdings. Featuring contributions from 35 scholars across 20 chapters, it explores key questions such as the value of collecting comics and their role in library instruction. The essays, enhanced with suggestions for further reading and informative footnotes, offer a comprehensive …

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Optimal Management Of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies And Welfare Maximization, Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli Jul 2025

Optimal Management Of Public Energy Communities: Investment Strategies And Welfare Maximization, Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini, Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A municipality (social planner) is seeking to establish a renewable energy community paying the initial investment costs, while also identifying the optimal management framework. In this context, two distinct modes of governance are analyzed: the private and the public one. In the first case, a private (or profit) aggregator oversees the energy community with a monopolistic behavior, while in the other the aggregator is a public owned, or controlled, company following the social approach advocated by the promoter, i.e the municipality. In both scenarios, the effective functioning of the community requires the collection of private data on members’ energy consumption. …

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Semiparametric Learning Of Integral Functionals On Submanifolds, Xiaohong Chen, Wayne Yuan Guo Jul 2025

Semiparametric Learning Of Integral Functionals On Submanifolds, Xiaohong Chen, Wayne Yuan Guo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the semiparametric estimation and inference of integral functionals on submanifolds, which arise naturally in a variety of econometric settings. For linear integral functionals on a regular submanifold, we show that the semiparametric plugin estimator attains the minimax-optimal convergence rate n—s2s+d-m, where s is the Hölder smoothness order of the underlying nonparametric function, d is the dimension of the first-stage nonparametric estimation, m is the dimension of the submanifold over which the integral is taken. This rate coincides with the standard minimax-optimal rate for a (d − m)-dimensional nonparametric estimation problem, illustrating that integration over the …

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Tariffs And Trade Deficits, Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum, Fernando Parro Jul 2025

Tariffs And Trade Deficits, Lorenzo Caliendo, Samuel Kortum, Fernando Parro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a complete-markets model to analyze the determinants of endogenous trade imbalances across countries. We introduce a framework where countries can trade in Arrow-Debreu securities to insure against different states of the world, which enables them to run deficits in some states and surpluses in others. The model allows for counterfactual analysis of various trade policy scenarios, such as unilateral tariff impositions. We derive the conditions under which trade deficits arise endogenously and discuss implications for welfare and trade policy analysis.

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Review Of Averting The Digital Dark Age: The Future Of Digital Literary Heritage, Rebecca L. Hastings Jul 2025

Review Of Averting The Digital Dark Age: The Future Of Digital Literary Heritage, Rebecca L. Hastings

Journal of Contemporary Archival Studies

In Averting the Digital Dark Age: How Archivists, Librarians, and Technologists Built the Web a Memory, Ian Milligan explores the efforts of technologists and information professionals to develop means of preserving information shared on the World Wide Web. The web lacks a built-in archiving function, raising fears of a “digital dark age,” an unprecedented gap in the historical record as information sharing via the web increases. Milligan tracks the development of web preservation debates and activities from the anxiety and turmoil of the early to mid-1990s to the coming of age of web preservation in the wake of the …

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Selection In Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives To Detect And Account For Nonresponse Bias, Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie Van Dijk Jul 2025

Selection In Surveys: Using Randomized Incentives To Detect And Account For Nonresponse Bias, Deniz Dutz, Ingrid Huitfeldt, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Alexander Torgovitsky, Winnie Van Dijk

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We show how to use randomized participation incentives to test and account for nonresponse bias in surveys. We first use data from a survey about labor market conditions, linked to full-population administrative data, to provide evidence of large differences in labor market outcomes between survey participants and nonparticipants, differences which would not be observable to an analyst who only has access to the survey data. These differences persist even after correcting for observable characteristics. We then use the randomized incentives in our survey to directly test for nonresponse bias, and find evidence of substantial bias. Next, we apply a range …

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Estimating How Much Children Work: Questionnaires Versus Time Use Diaries, Juana Lamote De Grignon Pérez, Wenbin Wang, Tanay Kasyap, Matthew Henglong Luo, Jialu Tang Jul 2025

Estimating How Much Children Work: Questionnaires Versus Time Use Diaries, Juana Lamote De Grignon Pérez, Wenbin Wang, Tanay Kasyap, Matthew Henglong Luo, Jialu Tang

Discussion Papers

Current estimates of child labour often rely on questions such as, “How many hours did you work last week?” While biases in adult self-reports are well-documented in high-income countries, there is limited evidence on the accuracy of children’s responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using data from nine LMICs, including China and India, this paper shows that time diaries report more than twice as many work hours as standard questionnaires. This discrepancy suggests that current estimates may significantly understate child labour. Moreover, certain forms of work—such as collecting water or firewood—appear to contribute to these measurement gaps.

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Yale University Faculty Handbook July 1, 2025, Yale University Jul 2025

Yale University Faculty Handbook July 1, 2025, Yale University

Faculty Handbooks

No abstract provided.

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Lessons Learned: Vincenzo La Via, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Vincenzo La Via, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Vincenzo La Via joined the World Bank Group in 2005 as chief financial officer, in charge of financial reporting, accounting, strategic planning and budgeting, credit risk, corporate finance, market risk, liquidity and asset management, and product development. During his tenure, La Via took part in the bank’s response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis. He left the bank in 2012 to become director general of the Treasury in the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance as the Italian government took on reform of the banking sector. He left the public sector in 2019 …

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Lessons Learned: Luis Jácome, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Luis Jácome, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Luis Jácome was appointed president of the board of Ecuador’s central bank in 1998 by newly elected President Jamil Mahuad. He and other members of the board resigned in 1999 in protest against a number of crisis-intervention measures they saw as threatening the bank’s independence to set monetary policy. Since the 1970s, Ecuador’s economy had experienced a period of growth fueled by oil exports, but by the mid-1990s the economy was reeling from a series of shocks, among them: a sharp drop in the price of oil, the effects of severe flooding on the country’s agricultural production, and the cost …

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Lessons Learned: Benoît Cœuré, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Benoît Cœuré, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Benoît Cœuré held several positions in the French Treasury in the years leading to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). He was an economic adviser to the director general of the French Treasury from 1997–2002, deputy chief executive and chief executive of the French debt management office from 2002–2007, and assistant secretary for multilateral affairs, trade, and development from 2007–2009. He served as chief economist and deputy director general in 2009–2011. He joined the European Central Bank (ECB) during the European Sovereign debt Crisis and was responsible for market operations, market infrastructure supervision and European and international relations as a member …

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Lessons Learned: Miguel Carcaño, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Miguel Carcaño, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Miguel Carcaño served as head of the Spanish Treasury’s Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, the authority in charge of managing the restructuring process of the country’s credit institutions. The fund, known today as the Spanish Executive Resolution Authority, is integrated into the European network led by the Single Resolution Board (SRB) of the European Union’s banking union. Carcaño has held a number of posts within the SRB and in 2022 became head of the Single Resolution Fund, the SRB’s emergency fund, which serves as backstop for institutions across the banking union’s 21 countries.

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Lessons Learned: Ignazio Angeloni, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Ignazio Angeloni, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Ignazio Angeloni was an adviser on financial integration, financial stability, and monetary policy to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and later became director general of financial stability. He coordinated the preparations for establishing the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), a component of the European banking union. The SSM was created to address macroprudential gaps identified during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Angeloni has advocated in his academic papers for completing the work of the SSM by establishing a regional deposit insurance scheme that would backstop the work of …

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Lessons Learned: Mark Branson, Mercedes Cardona Jun 2025

Lessons Learned: Mark Branson, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Mark Branson joined the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as head of the banking division in 2010, during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. He became deputy director of FINMA in 2013 and was named director a year later. Although Switzerland is not a member of the European Union (EU) or its banking union, the nation participates in bilateral agreements that govern trade with the EU, its largest trading partner. In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), it enacted a number of regulations to improve oversight of the financial sector. Branson left FINMA in 2021 to become head …

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How Us Bank Regulation Failed Svb And Its Supervisors, Greg Feldberg, Carey K. Mott, Jill Cetina Jun 2025

How Us Bank Regulation Failed Svb And Its Supervisors, Greg Feldberg, Carey K. Mott, Jill Cetina

Journal of Financial Crises

It is well known that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed in March 2023 because of a toxic combination of uninsured deposits and underwater securities. This article argues that the bank’s failure could have been avoided if SVB had been subject to two global standards established by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. First, the interest-rate risk in the banking book (IRR-BB) standard, never fully implemented in the United States, would have identified the bank’s extremely risky asset-liability management strategy and required remedial action 10 quarters before it failed. Second, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), from which US regulators had exempted …

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Emergency Liquidity Assistance And Monetary Financing In The European Union: A Case Study In Fiscal Cooperation?, Vincient Arnold Jun 2025

Emergency Liquidity Assistance And Monetary Financing In The European Union: A Case Study In Fiscal Cooperation?, Vincient Arnold

Journal of Financial Crises

In the European Union (EU), primary EU treaty law prohibits central banks from engaging in monetary financing, which includes lending to insolvent firms. This legal prohibition exists alongside, and in parallel to, various regulatory provisions of the Eurosystem. As a result, EU Member State central banks face unique legal limitations when acting in their roles as lenders of last resort, providing emergency liquidity assistance (ELA). In practice, European central banks—both members of the Eurosystem and not—lend to firms of questionable solvency with some frequency, often creatively employing fiscal guarantees to limit their balance sheet exposure and shift the lending risk …

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United States: Rhode Island Limited Bank Holiday, 1991, Ayodeji George, Sophia Alden Jun 2025

United States: Rhode Island Limited Bank Holiday, 1991, Ayodeji George, Sophia Alden

Journal of Financial Crises

In 1990, the Rhode Island Share and Deposit Indemnity Corporation (RISDIC) was a private mutual deposit insurance corporation funded by member institutions. Late that year, after the failures of two of its insured institutions in July and October, other RISDIC member institutions faced large depositor withdrawals, as concerns began to focus on the financial health of RISDIC itself. RISDIC had maintained inadequate reserves, and on December 31, 1990, it found itself lacking the resources to cover depositor withdrawals from member institutions. RISDIC leadership requested a state-appointed conservator, which meant that all its member institutions no longer had the deposit insurance …

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United States: Reserve Primary Fund Suspension, 2008, Anmol Makhija Jun 2025

United States: Reserve Primary Fund Suspension, 2008, Anmol Makhija

Journal of Financial Crises

In 2008, the Reserve Primary Fund was the world’s third-largest money market fund with $62.5 billion in assets. Following Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy filing on September 15, the Primary Fund’s $785 million position in Lehman debt securities was underwater, and the fund faced severe redemption pressures from investors. In just two days, redemption requests surpassed $40 billion. Owing to the fund’s inability to liquidate assets at or above par value in the frozen markets and the inability of its sponsor, the Reserve Management Company, Inc. (RMCI), to support investors, the Reserve announced on September 16 that the Primary Fund had “broken …

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India: Yes Bank Moratorium, 2020, Salil Gupta Jun 2025

India: Yes Bank Moratorium, 2020, Salil Gupta

Journal of Financial Crises

By December 2019, Yes Bank’s capital levels had dropped below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) mandated threshold, as the bank was facing a combination of deposit withdrawals, losses from extraordinary credit provisions, and overexposure to stressed sectors. On March 5, 2020, India’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the RBI placed Yes Bank under a 30-day moratorium that restricted most banking functions and limited deposit withdrawals to INR 50,000 per person (USD 663). The purpose of this moratorium was to allow the RBI time to design a plan of reconstruction or amalgamation for Yes Bank to allow depositors limited access …

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United States: National Bank Holiday, 1933, Ayodeji George Jun 2025

United States: National Bank Holiday, 1933, Ayodeji George

Journal of Financial Crises

By mid-February 1933, the United States was in the depths of the Great Depression and the banking system faced sustained depositor runs and currency hoarding. On February 14, the governor of Michigan declared a holiday for all banks and trusts in the state. There followed a wave of declared bank holidays and bank runs across the country. The public withdrew $1.8 billion in gold and currency from banks in February and early March, with nearly two-thirds of those withdrawals occurring in the week ended Friday, March 3. By that date, 25 of 48 states had implemented bank holidays or restricted …

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