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Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents is unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about payoff-relevant states of the world. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, the counterfactual prediction is described …

Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about payoff-relevant states of the world, represented as an information structure. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, there …

Text-Speech Alignment: A Robin Hood Approach For Endangered Languages, Claire Bowern, Rikker Dockum, Sarah Babinski, Hunter Craft, Anelisa Fergus, Dolly Goldenberg

Yale Day of Data

Forced alignment automatically aligns audio recordings of spoken language with transcripts at the level of individual sounds, greatly reducing the time required to prepare data for linguistic analysis. However, existing algorithms are mostly trained on a few well-documented languages. We test the performance of three algorithms against manually aligned data on data from a highly endangered language. At least some tasks, unsupervised alignment (either based on English or trained from a small corpus) is sufficiently reliable for it to be used on legacy data for low-resource languages. Descriptive phonetic work on vowel inventories and prosody can be accurately captured by …

A Novel Pathway-Based Distance Score Enhances Assessment Of Disease Heterogeneity In Gene Expression, Yunqing Liu, Xiting Yan

Yale Day of Data

Distance-based unsupervised clustering of gene expression data is commonly used to identify heterogeneity in biologic samples. However, high noise levels in gene expression data and the relatively high correlation between genes are often encountered, so traditional distances such as Euclidean distance may not be effective at discriminating the biological differences between samples. In this study, we developed a novel computational method to assess the biological differences based on pathways by assuming that ontologically defined biological pathways in biologically similar samples have similar behavior. Application of this distance score results in more accurate, robust, and biologically meaningful clustering results in both …

Political Attitudes, Cognitive Style, And Political Persuasion, Halbert Bai, Gregory Mitchell, Philip E. Tetlock

Yale Day of Data

How do liberals and conservatives differ? Existing evidence suggests clear divergences on cognitive style and sociopolitical attitudes. However, theories such as the rigidity of the right hypothesis (Adorno et al., 1950; Tetlock, 1983) and the ideologue hypothesis (Rokeach, 1956) make incompatible predictions. The present research aims to reconcile these incongruities by employing measures that assess (a) cognitive style/open-mindedness, (b) perspective-taking, and (c) relationships between characteristics of procedural justice. Study 1 employed real-world arguments on highly politicized issues to examine rhetorical features that influence an article’s persuasiveness. We found evidence for the rigidity of the right hypothesis. In Study 2, participants …

Uk Asset-Backed Securities Guarantee Scheme, June Rhee

Documents

No abstract provided.

Erratum

Journal of Marine Research

Please note the correction to the following article: Bouzaiene, Maher, Milena Menna, Pierre-Marie Poulain, and Dalila Elhmaidi. 2018.“Lagrangian dispersion characteristics in the Western Mediterranean.” Journal of Marine Research 5–6, 139–161. https://doi.org/10.1357/002224018826473290.

The Regulation Of Oxygen To Low Concentrations In Marine Oxygen-Minimum Zones, Don E. Canfield, Beate Kraft, Carolin R. Löscher, Richard A. Boyle, Bo Thamdrup, Frank J. Stewart

Journal of Marine Research

The Bay of Bengal hosts persistent, measurable, but sub-micromolar, concentrations of oxygen in its oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ). Such low-oxygen conditions are not necessarily rare in the global ocean and seem also to characterize the OMZ of the Pescadero Basin in the Gulf of California, as well as the outer edges of otherwise anoxic OMZs, such as can be found, for example, in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific. We show here that biological controls on oxygen consumption are required to allow the semistable persistence of low-oxygen conditions in OMZ settings; otherwise, only small changes in physical mixing or rates of primary …

N-Loss Stoichiometry In A Peru Odz Eddy, Mark A. Altabet, Annie Bourbonnais

Journal of Marine Research

Assuming heterotrophic denitrification as the dominant microbial process, Richards (1965) formulated a stoichiometry governing nitrogen loss in open-ocean oxygen deficient zones (ODZs). It prescribes the quantitative coupling between the oxidation of organic matter by NO^–₃ in the absence of O₂ and the corresponding production of CO₂, N₂, and PO^–3₄. Applied globally, this relationship defines key linkages between the C, N, and P cycles. However, the validity of Richards's stoichiometry is challenged by recognition of complex microbial N processing in ODZs including anammox as an important pathway and nitrite reoxidation. Whereas …

Multimodal Imaging And Asymmetry Of Disease Progression In Rhodopsin-Associated Autosomal Dominant Retinitis Pigmentosa, Lawrence Chan

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) is a group of genetically and clinically heterogeneous inherited retinal degenerative diseases with no known cure to date. The recent gene therapy treatment for Leber’s congenital amaurosis and RP caused by mutations in RPE65 have resulted in dramatic improvements in vision, leading to excitement for other potential gene therapies on the horizon. Upcoming clinical trials will be targeting patients with specific mutations, and measurements of disease progression will be needed for each genetic subtype of RP in order to determine whether treatments are successful. In this retrospective cohort study, we examined 27 RP patients with confirmed autosomal …

Development Of Pancreatic Cancer Organoid Model For Studying Immune Response In Pancreatic Cancer, Jin Woo Yoo

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

The importance of immune system in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) pathogenesis and therapy remains poorly understood largely due to the lack of effective model systems. Cell lines are not physiologic as they cannot recapitulate the cancer stroma and lose genetic heterogeneity over time. Genetically engineered mouse models of PDAC are more physiologic than cell lines but lack neoantigens needed to mount T cell responses against tumor. Organoid models of PDAC offer unique opportunity to study immune mechanisms in PDAC since organoids can model complex layering of multiple cell types, creating a physiologically relevant system that is highly tractable for genetic …

The Medial Prefrontal Cortex To Dorsal Raphe Circuit In The Antidepressant Action Of Ketamine, Alexandra Thomas

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Major depressive disorder is a common and debilitating illness for which there is a notable lack of efficient, effective treatment. While currently available pharmacotherapies typically take eight weeks to take effect and fail to do so at all for about a third of patients, the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist ketamine has shown a much more favorable effectiveness profile, including improvements in symptoms within hours of administration, even for many patients who do not respond to typical antidepressants. Ketamine, as a modulator of glutamate signaling in the brain, has a distinct mechanism of action from the serotonin and norepinephrine modulators that …

Influence Of Medicare Formulary Restrictions On Evidence-Based Prescribing Practices, Aishwarya Vijay

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Controlling the cost of prescription drugs is integral to improving health outcomes, and patient access and adherence to treatment. While prescription drugs can often provide essential therapeutic benefit, previous studies have suggested that inappropriate prescription drug use is a principal cause of adverse drug events as well as abuse and diversion of drugs. Thus, balancing the benefits and harms to promote appropriate prescription drug use is an essential component of healthcare delivery in the United States. There are multiple ways appropriate prescription drug use is promoted. Black-box warnings and drug labeling controlled by the FDA as well as guidelines released …

Identifying Quantitative Enhancement-Based Imaging Biomarkers In Patients With Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases Undergoing Loco-Regional Tumor Therapy, Mansur Abdul Ghani

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

The purpose of this study was to test and compare the ability of radiologic measurements of lesion diameter, volume, and enhancement on baseline magnetic resonance (MR) images to be predictors of overall survival (OS) and markers of treatment response in patients with liver-dominant colorectal cancer metastases undergoing loco-regional tumor therapies.

This retrospective study included 88 patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases, treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or Y90 transarterial radioembolization (TARE) between 2001 and 2014. All patients received contrast-enhanced MRI prior to therapy. Semi-automated whole liver and tumor segmentations of three dominant lesions were performed on baseline MRI to …

The Genetics Of Vein Of Galen Malformation And Assessment Of Candidate Genes In Xenopus Tropicalis, Jonathan Read Gaillard

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

The Vein of Galen Malformation (VOGM) is a specific subtype of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) that becomes evident in weeks 6-11 of embryonic development. VOGM comprise less than 1% of all vascular malformations, yet represent 30% of all pediatric intracranial vascular malformations. Depending on their specific characteristics, i.e. its feeding vessels, it can present clinically as devastating congestive heart failure in neonates, hydrocephalus in children, or seizures and headaches in young adults. Advances in treatment provide improved survival, primarily through endovascular surgery. The genetic and molecular etiology of VOGM remains relatively unknown, with the only associated genes being in the context …

Drumming To Communicate Emotion: Dual-Brain Imaging Informs An Intervention In A Carceral Setting, Rahil Rojiani

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Drumming is an ancient nonverbal communication modality for expression of emotion. However, there has been limited exploration of its possible applications in clinical settings. Further, the underlying neural systems engaged during live communication with drumming have not been identified. We investigated the neural response to live, natural communication of emotion via drumming using a novel dual-brain neuroimaging paradigm to discover its unique neurophysiological mechanisms related to drum behavior and cross-brain coherence, and as compared to talking. We then investigated the application of a drumming intervention in an incarcerated, halfway house population to characterize intervention feasibility, elucidate the phenomenology of social …

Recirculating Flow In A Basin With Closed F/H Contours, Alexander M. Fuller, Thomas W. N. Haine, Erik Kvaleberg

Journal of Marine Research

A general circulation model is used to study the time evolution of a rotating, weakly baroclinic fluid in a basin with sloping sidewalls. Contours of f/h, where f is the Coriolis parameter and h is the depth of the fluid, are closed in this model. The fluid is forced by a localized source of positive vorticity. The initial response is a narrow, recirculating cell that resembles a β-plume modified by bathymetry. Such cells have been found in previous studies and have been linked to the recirculation cells observed in the subpolar North Atlantic. However, this is not a steady …

The Microbial Loop Concept: A History, 1930–1974, Peter J. Le B. Williams, Hugh W. Ducklow

Journal of Marine Research

The microbial loop as a leading concept in marine microbiology gained wide recognition in the 1980s, but it has roots extending back to the 1930s when microbiologists first began to take a more dynamic approach to investigating the roles of bacteria in ocean food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Here we present a history of the microbial loop concept with emphasis on the period starting in 1930, when marine bacteriologists in Russia and the West began to study explicitly the roles of marine bacteria in the sea. Selman Waksman at Woods Hole and Claude ZoBell at La Jolla relied on colony …

The Ecological And Biogeochemical State Of The North Pacifi C Subtropical Gyre Is Linked To Sea Surface Height, Benedetto Barone, Ashley R. Coenen, Stephen J. Beckett, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy Jr., Joshua S. Weitz, David M. Karl

Journal of Marine Research

Sea surface height (SSH) is routinely measured from satellites and used to infer ocean currents, including eddies, that affect the distribution of organisms and substances in the ocean. SSH not only reflects the dynamics of the surface layer, but also is sensitive to the fluctuations of the main pycnocline; thus it is linked to events of nutrient upwelling. Beyond episodic upwelling events, it is not clear if and how SSH is linked to broader changes in the biogeochemical state of marine ecosystems. Our analysis of 23 years of satellite observations and biogeochemical measurements from the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre shows …

Brink: A Review Of Books, Issue 4, Daniel Yadin, Claire Elliman, Bix Archer, Gabriel Groz, Ruby Bilger, Oriana Tang

Brink

No abstract provided.

Iatrogenic Complications Of Diabetes Mellitus: An Examination Of Hospital-Acquired Diabetic Ketoacidosis And Severe Outpatient Hypoglycemia, Chloe Zimmerman

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

Patients with diabetes mellitus are at risk for two acute metabolic complications: severe hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. These acute complications are costly and associated with significant morbidity and mortality, but are preventable with delivery of high-quality care. The purpose of this work is to focus on a subset of these complications which are iatrogenic, i.e., caused by medical treatment. Hospital-acquired diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is an iatrogenic complication as it occurs when a patient with known diabetes experiences DKA while hospitalized for other reasons. Hypoglycemia is an adverse effect of treatment and thus, by definition, all hypoglycemia resulting from the use of …

Evaluation Of Sociodemographic Factors And Presence Of Oil And Gas Waste Disposal Wells In Kansas, Katherine Rose Wolf

Public Health Theses

Background and objective: Kansas hosts the second-largest number of wells in the United States for the disposal of oil and gas waste (n = 13,396), which can contain chemicals toxic to human health. In this study we evaluate potential associations between oil and gas waste disposal well locations and sociodemographic characteristics in Kansas.

Methods: We obtained oil and gas production and disposal well data from the Kansas Geological Survey and sociodemographic data at the census block group level from the United States 2013–2017 American Community Survey. We used two-variable t-tests, logistic regression with and without thin plate spatial splines, and …

“Throwing Drops Of Water At A Wildfire”: Patient And Provider Strategies For Navigating Housing Instability And Type 2 Diabetes, Marlene Edelstein

Public Health Theses

Type 2 diabetes and housing access are growing independent and intersecting crises in the United States, and unstable housing is associated with poor health outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes. A growing body of evidence points to the challenges of adhering to diabetes management without access to stable housing, and that provider behavior is impacted when their patients face housing instability. In this qualitative study, we investigate the ways that primary care providers and people with type 2 diabetes strategically navigate the challenges posed by homelessness and unstable housing. Semi-structured interviews from two qualitative studies were analyzed. The first …

A Review On Antibiotic Stewardship In Pediatric Primary Care, Paulina Kaminski

Public Health Theses

Background. Misuse of antibiotics for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) in pediatric primary care settings persists despite growing concern over antibiotic resistance. Interventions aimed at improving prescription use, coined Antibiotic Stewardship Programs (ASPs) often target clinicians for improved clinical decision-making. More recently, ASPs have begun educating patients to antibiotic needs, and for pediatric cases, parents who might pressure clinicians into prescribing unneeded antibiotics. While many reviews have targeted adult patients or emergency settings, few evaluate practices for pediatric populations. For this reason, we performed a review of the literature to summarize common strategies used to reduce antibiotic overprescribing for pediatric …

Learning Under Diverse World Views: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models, including only the most relevant variables. How do people hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a model of “model-based inference.” Model-based reasoners partition an otherwise hopelessly complex state space into a manageable model. We nd that unless the differences in agents’ models are trivial, interactions will often not lead agents to have common beliefs, and indeed the correct-model belief will typically lie outside the convex hull of the agents’ beliefs. However, if the agents’ models have enough in common, then interacting will lead agents …

The Wisdom Of A Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference, George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

“Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should see no trade in the market. But if the agents in the market are not Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then it is no longer obvious that the market outcome aggregates or conveys information. In this paper, we examine a stylized prediction market comprised of Bayesian agents whose inferences are based …

Misinterpreting Others And The Fragility Of Social Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study to what extent information aggregation in social learning environments is robust to slight misperceptions of others’ characteristics (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents’ actions over time, where agents’ actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types. When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, our first main result …

Medically Applied Artificial Intelligence:From Bench To Bedside, Nicholas Chedid

Yale Medicine Thesis Digital Library

The intent of this thesis was to develop several medically applied artificial intel-ligence programs, which can be considered either clinical decision support tools or pro-grams which make the development of such tools more feasible. The first two projectsare more basic or "bench" in focus, while the final project is more translational. The firstprogram involves the creation of a residual neural network to automatically detect thepresence of pericardial effusions in point-of-care echocardiography and currently hasan accuracy of 71%. The second program involves the development of a sub-type ofgenerative adverserial network to create synthetic x-rays of fractures for several pur-poses including data …

Annual Report 2018, Dexia

Documents

No abstract provided.

Annual Report 2018, Central Bank Of Russia

Documents

Annual report discussing capital injections into Otkritie and other banks