Digital Commons Network^™

Study On The Relationship Between Air Quality And Mortality Due To Respiratory Diseases At Global Level, Margarita Espinós Torredemer, Karina Gibert Oliveras, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The aim of this study is to bring new knowledge and verify some assumptions about how different environmental and socio-economic conditions affect mortality worldwide. From the three main causes of mortality, only one mortality due to join effects of household and ambient air pollution is analysed in this work. The study is carried out for a selection of 165 countries. Open data from several sources (the United Nations, The World Bank, Science Direct and Expansión datos macro) is combined bringing together information about geography, demography, socio-economy, environment (including conditions, emissions and natural resources), energy, education, standard of living, health and …

Modeling Farmer Decision-Making And Biophysical Impacts Of Agrienvironmental Schemes Under Different Policy Designs, Meike Will, Chunhui Li, Nastasija Grujic, Jiaqi Ge

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Using model-based approaches for analyzing agricultural systems allows for a systematic assessment of policies under changing environmental, economic, or institutional conditions and the evaluation of the efficiency of different policy designs. When considering the behavior of individual farmers – the crucial actors at the landscape level – agent-based modeling is particularly appropriate. We use this approach in the context of farmers’ decision making on the adoption of agri-environmental schemes (AES). AES are voluntary programs offered as part of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy to provide incentives for environmentally friendly farming practices. However, farmers' interest in participation has remained lower …

Impact Of Ethical Premises On Pareto-Optimal Climate Abatement Pathways, Max Reddel, Palok Biswas, Jazmin Zatarain Salazar, Jan Kwakkel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Humanity faces the unprecedented global challenge of climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are central to informing decision-making to avoid catastrophic consequences. However, policy recommendations resulting from IAMs commonly prompt a very heterogeneous distribution of risks and benefits across the globe. During the recent 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), it became clear that equity is a central issue in the climate action debate. Emerging economies consider currently suggested abatement policies unjust in light of the historical CO2 generation of high-income countries and the strongly increasing need for energy in low-income countries. Equity is therefore an eminently pressing topic, …

Lucas: An Agent-Based Model For Understanding Adaptation Strategies In The Mekong Delta, Benoit Gaudou, Quang Chi Truong, Alexis Drogoul, Patrick Taillandier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

he Mekong Delta area will be deeply impacted by effects of climate change, but also of salinization, sand mining, and underground water extraction, inducing changes and adaptations at individual (mainly farmers) and institutional (province and region) levels. In the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, local provinces play an important role in the decision of adaptation strategies and resource exploitation management. In addition, as some provinces can share agro-ecological regions, the coordination of provinces’ actions appear to be a necessary factor to adapt efficiently to climate change issues. This paper aims to develop an Agent–Based model for land use change adaptation strategies modeling …

A Framework And System Dynamics Modelling Approach For Performing Viability Assessments Of Bio-Methane Projects In Newly Adopting Countries, Sam Culley, Holger R. Maier, Aaron Zecchin, Jing Tian

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Globally, renewable gas projects are becoming increasingly popular due to energy networks facing increasing pressure to decarbonize. Bio-methane production is an example of such a technology, as it allows decarbonization both from avoidance of natural gas and use of waste streams as feedstock. Further, unlike other renewable gas technologies such as hydrogen, it is fit for use with existing infrastructure. However, the commercial viability of these bio-methane schemes is largely dependent on government policy and incentives. As such, despite the significant commercial success in Europe, the production of bio-methane and its injection into existing gas networks is currently non-existent in …

Adria: A Guidance System For Intervention Research, Development And Deployment On Coral Reefs Under Uncertainty, Takuya Iwanaga, Ken Anthony, Rose Crocker, Veronique Lago

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Coral ecosystems across the globe are projected to face severe threats from climate change even under the 1.5°C warming set by the Paris Agreement. The Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP) aims to help sustain the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in the face of climate change. The GBR is the world’s largest coral reef and a UNESCO world heritage site with high cultural, ecological, and economic significance. A range of interventions are currently being considered to improve the reef’s resilience to the impacts of climate change, from local targeted seeding of cultivated corals through to Solar Radiation Management via cloud …

Ensemble Model-Based Method For Time Series Sensors’ Datavalidation And Imputation Applied To A Real Waste Water Treatmentplant, Josep Pascual-Pañach, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Miquel Àngel Cugueró-Escofet

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) integrate different Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques with the aim of taking or supporting human-like decisions. To this end, these techniques are based on the available data from the target process. This implies that invalid or missing data could trigger incorrect decisions and therefore, undesirable situations in the supervised process. This is even more important in environmental systems. In data-driven applications such as IDSS, data quality is a basal problem that should be addressed for the sake of the overall systems’ performance. In this paper, a data validation and imputation methodology for time-series is presented. This …

Spatial Planning For Small Scale And Local Renewable Energy - Integrated Land Use Models Or Digital Decision Support Tools?, Richard J. Hewitt, Cheryl De Boer, Johannes Flacke

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Participatory decision support tools have been developed to support the implementation of many areas of environmental policy, but are less common in energy contexts. At the same time, a new wave of social innovation in small-scale and local Renewable Energies (SLRE) is emerging in response to problems with conventional energy systems including the climate crisis, rising energy prices, lack of democratic participation, energy poverty and many more. This emerging phenomenon calls for additional support for spatial planning of land use at the community level. Here, we discuss the process of participatory development of two different types of digital support tools …

Combining Lucc Models And Environmental Models For Assessing Potentials And Risks Of Land-Based Negative Emission Technologies On Different Scale Levels, Ruediger Schaldach, Janina Onigkeit, Roman Hinz, Ellen Kynast

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

An important element of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement are land-based mitigation technologies (LMTs) to achieve “negative emissions”. The aim is to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and to store the carbon in soils, vegetation biomass, or geological structures. Examples for LMTs are afforestation, reforestation and forest restoration, enhanced soil and land management, and the cultivation and combustion of dedicated energy-plants to generate electricity, in combination with carbon capture and storage technologies (BECCS). A reliable information basis on the potential contribution of these LMTs to climate change mitigation is crucial for defining …

Scenario Planning For Organic Farming Development In Iran By Applying Cross Impact Balance (Cib) Analysis, Arezou Babajani, Hossein Shabanali Fami, Mohammad Reza Rezapanah

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Organic farming is a type of ecologically friendly agricultural system that aims to improve human quality of life while reducing environmental impacts. Despite the underlying potentials for developing this system in Iran there was too little extension and, in some respects, a step backward. The purpose of this study is to explain how scenarios for organic agricultural development were constructed using the cross impact balance (CIB) approach to analyze data obtained by an expert panel using the Delphi method. The time horizon in this study was 2026, and the spatial framework was The Islamic Republic of Iran. In two rounds …

Machine Learning Models As A Suitable Tool To Estimate At Real Time The Microbial Risk In Drinking Water, Hector Monclús, Ester Aguilera, David Abert, Manel Poch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the framework of global change, climate change is affecting the quality of surface water. One of its possible effects is the increase of the pathogen load in existing drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs). This topic put a question mark on whether existing utilities are able to handle possible future scenarios, as a result, the need for early warning systems and strategies to detect and respond to acute events in drinking water systems is highlighted. The objective of this study is to develop an early warning system related to the microbiological safety in a DWTP and integrate it as a …

Investigating The Role Of Climatic Factors And Human Activities On Water Level Changes In Maharloo Lake - Iran, Mohsen Kazemi, Ali Asadi, Hassan Khosravi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Over the last few decades, the water level appears to have declined for most of the Lakes as a consequence of global warming. Besides, in addition to climatic factors, human activities have had a profound impact on lowering the lake's water level and ecosystem changes. In this research, Landsat satellite images from 1987-2021 for mapping the water level changes in Maharloo Lake and simple image difference technique and principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy logic have been used to map the intensity of changes. Then, the trend of climatic factors (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and water balance (flow and underground water …

Implementing Non-Linearities In Storylines – A Possible And Required Step To Include Dynamic System-Related Developments, Stefan Vögele, Witold-Roger Poganietz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Storylines currently in use for policy advice are based on a great number of simplifying assumptions. This includes assumptions of trends of the systems elements over the period under investigation; usually linear trends (e.g., for changes in GDP, population and fuel prices). This approach ignores the fact that the interrelationships between systems elements are often characterized by nonlinearities, due to e.g. boundary conditions, thresholds or decreasing marginal benefits or asynchronic behaviour of systems elements. For an assessment of energy futures and the specification of measures, novel approaches are necessary which can deal with non-linear trends. The most prominent examples are …

Time Lag Analysis Between Climate Time And Lag Correlation Analysis Between Climate Drought And Hydrological Drought In Hashtgerd Plain, Ali Asadi, Mohsen Kazemi, Nikoo Ghafouri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Groundwater resources in most parts of the world have a special place in terms of water supply for human needs. The quantity of these resources is affected by nutrition (mostly rainfall) and depletion. Drought as a considered natural disaster has profound economic and environmental effects on a large scale. To investigate the temporal effects of climatic drought on hydrological drought in groundwater resources, the present study was conducted in Hashtgerd plain. In this study, SPI was standardized as an indicator of climatic drought and GRI was evaluated as an indicator of groundwater resources. After analyzing the data, this index has …

Scheduling The Energy Consumption Of Residential Loads, The Impact Of Missing Data, Matteo Salani, Marco Derboni, Andrea Emilio Rizzoli

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We consider the problem of dispatching domestic power loads in presence of renewable energy sources. Renewables are largely and quickly fluctuating according to weather conditions, thus the imbalance between production and consumption may cause overvoltage, and overload of grid components. One of the technical measures for controlling these unbalances is the smart management of available flexibility in the grid. In order to let the distribution system operators face this challenge, we developed, in the context of the Optiflex project, a solution aimed to actively control domestic heat pumps and electric heaters. The main challenge of the project is that we …

Airborne Contaminant Urban Localization By The Hybrid Stochastic Artificial Neural Network System., Anna Wawrzynczak, Piotr Kopka, Monika Berendt-Marchel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One of the tasks of early response groups to threats, especially in urban areas, is to quickly trace the source of the danger and take appropriate steps to prevent its effects. For example, in the case of atmospheric contamination, the first thread indicators are the concentrations of the dangerous substance reported by a network of sensors in a given area. Thus, the dedicated emergency system should localize the source of contamination based on the data from the sensors. Moreover, such a system should work in realtime. The paper presents the reconstruction system pointing to the most probable source of the …

Impact Assessment Of Ground Water In Aapni Yojna Project Area: Taranagar Block, Churu District, Rajasthan, Mohmmed Muslim Sheikh

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Aapni Yojna Project was a rural water supply project covers about 20,000 sq. km. in three districts of northern Rajasthan (India) viz, Churu, Hanumangarh and Jhunjhunun. The Project is co funded by the development bank, Kfw, Germany started in 1994. The project's main objective was to improve the health status and living conditions of the targeted population. Drinking water supply is ensured from the Indira Gandhi Canal, as ground water is insufficient and saline. The proposed study is related to one block i.e. Tranagar block of Churu District. Based on the drinking water supply in the areas, ground water impact …

Prophesy: A New Tool For Dynamic Cib, Norman M. Kearney

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Dynamic system models are simplified representations, used to understand how a set of interacting elements (a system) might change over time. When observational and experimental data about system interactions are lacking, but an understanding of the system is still desired, judgments are sometimes used. While judgments may be wrong, organizing them into a model and analyzing their dynamics can help to support more rigorous decision making. Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) is a method for modelling systems using multiple data types, including judgments (Weimer-Jehle 2006). For many years, CIB has been used almost exclusively to assess system elements for their internal consistency. …

We Maintain The Status Quo In Modelling, Lieke Melsen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Hydrological models play a key role in contemporary hydrological scientific research, but more voices are expressing concern about the non-neutrality of models, representing particular interests. Still, this insight does not seem to lead to any changes in modelling practices. Based on interviews and an analysis of scientific hydrological vacancies it becomes clear that we actively, although perhaps unconsciously, maintain the status quo in modelling practices. 500+ scientific hydrological vacancies were analyzed, to evaluate whether the job description already prescribed which model must be used, and whether experience with a specific model was an asset. Of the analysed job positions, 69 …

Disentangling The Human Influence On Droughts In Semi-Arid Regions: A Socio-Hydrological Approach, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Louise Cavalcante, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke A. Melsen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Droughts are not just a problem of lack of water but are complex and multi-layered societal problems, triggered by hydro-meteorological drivers and influenced by human activities. The societal component of drought plays a relevant role in the magnitude of the impact since the coping and adaptation measures for droughts vary widely among societies around the world. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze drought events considering not only the physical component (hydro-meteorological variables) but also the human influence on hydrological systems. In this study, we aim to disentangle the human influence on the evolution and intensification of drought events through the …

The Role(S) Of Cib In Constructing Hybrid Scenarios, Sigrid Prehofer, Hannah Kosow, Wolfgang Hauser, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common hybrid approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modelling. However, the integration of interdisciplinary - and therefore often heterogeneous forms of knowledge - still is one of the main challenges of quantitative modelling. To support interdisciplinary knowledge integration, we use the concept of ‘context scenarios’, constructing qualitative scenarios with semi-qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis (CIB) and linking it with quantitative models. We have applied this hybrid approach in different methodological designs in several projects regarding water management and energy transitions. Reflecting and drawing insight from these empirical cases, we …

Using Cib For Policy Design, Hannah Kosow, Sandra Wassermann, Christian D. León

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental governance and in particular sustainability transformations are ridden with conflicts between multiple goals, e.g., between economic, social, nature conservation and climate protection related goals. It is an urgent question, how to achieve a coherent governance of sustainable development, and how to seize synergies and avoid trade-offs between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN Agenda 2030. On the level of policies to reach these goals, it is an open question how to design policies (strategies, instruments and measures) within, between and across sectors and levels, that support each other or at least interfere as little as possible with …

A Framework To Ensure Scenario-Neutral Climate Impact Assessments Better Align With Scenario-Led Projections, Sam Culley, Holger R. Maier, Seth Westra, Bree Bennett

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The uncertainty surrounding climate change presents a major challenge for the management of water resource systems, which are facing stresses to both supply and demand. To provide insight into how a system might perform under change, scenario-neutral climate impact assessments are being used increasingly to supplement ‘scenario-led’ climate projections. Scenario-neutral assessments stress-test a system against a range of potential climate changes, regardless of their plausibility, so that all major modes of system failure can be identified and characterised. However, when comparing the two approaches, results from scenario-neutral climate impact assessments often do not align with those from a scenario-led analysis. …

Cib - Where Are We And Where Are We Going?, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) was proposed in 2006 as a method for qualitative systems and scenario analysis. Fifteen years and about 300 published application cases later, the time has come to discuss the state of the art and future avenues of the method with method theorists and practitioners from all application domains. Looking back can help to understand which direction we should take in the further development of the method. Hence, a preparatory step of reflecting on CIB’s future can be to comprehensively review the past and current method practice and investigate, what benefits CIB users appreciate, what challenges they see, …

Application Of Generic Model Components For Environmental Policyanalysis, Jean-Luc De Kok, Peter Viaene, Erika Palmer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A powerful combination of stakeholder engagement, scenario analysis and System Dynamics (SD) modelling was adopted in the EU funded project COASTAL (https://h2020-coastal.eu) to generate evidencebased policy recommendations for sustainable development of regions at the land-sea interface. The project is organized around six case areas or Multi-Actor Labs. Stakeholders and domain experts interacted to design Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) capturing land-sea interactions and feedback mechanisms. Quantification of these CLDs allowed further analysis, such as the pinpointing of ‘tipping points'. Typical questions answered are: why do certain businesses fail and others not under similar circumstances? Why do certain management strategies work in …

Genomic Analysis And Therapeutic Development Of Bacteriophages To Treat Bacterial Infections And Parasitic Infestations, Daniel W. Thompson

Theses and Dissertations

Microbiomes are an extremely vast and complex network of microorganisms. Bacteriophages are a key factor in the microbial health of an ecological system and impact the evolution of pathogenic bacterial strains. Bacteria and the phages that infect them have an intricate relationship due to the dependency on the bacterial host for phage replication, the ability of the phage to lyse and kill its host, and the horizontal gene transfer between the host and phage. This thesis aimed to understand how bacteria and the bacteriophages that infect them impact an ecological system, with a focus on disease states. By analyzing all …

A Valley Lost To Time, Washington C. Pearce

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis delivers a playable and functional module for the 5 th Edition of the World’s Greatest Role-Playing Game. The Critical Introduction uses reader response and performance theory to create a framework for reading role-playing games as literature, explains some of the recent scholarship surrounding role-playing games, and details the creative process and work of the creative thesis.

In A Valley Lost to Time, Adventurers recruited by the Trellin Prime Minister are sent westward, over the Drazlin mountain range, with a mission to discover the fate of a decades-lost failed colony. The route is long and treacherous, passing through a …

Quantifying Protein Quality To Understand Protein Homeostasis (Supplemental Data), Hsien-Jung Lavender Lin

ScholarsArchive Data

This data set includes the supplementary data for chpaters 3 and 4 in the dissertation Quantifying Protein Quality to Understand Protein Homeostasis. It includes various excel worksheets that were used to generate the data reported in the dissertation. We make this data available to the public so anyone who wants to reproduce the results has the resources and access to other perspectives that weren't discussed in depth in the dissertation. Chapter 3 used mass-spectrometry to quantify the surface accessibility differences in human serum albumin (HSA)between patients with and without rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We found certain residues are less reactive …

Agent-Based Modelling Of Space-Time Activity For Assessment Of Personal Exposures To Ambient Air Pollution In Nationwide Health Cohorts, Oliver Schmitz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Not avalible

A Myriad Of Motivations: How Modelling Decisions Are Made, Janneke Remmers, Ryan Teuling, Lieke Melsen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Without taking subjective factors into account, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is already a complex process with multiple sources of uncertainty. The usually-considered sources are data, model structure, and parameter uncertainty. However, modellers make multiple decisions during the modelling process, e.g. related to the calibration period, pre-processing methods of forcing data and temporal resolution. These decisions affect the model results, which is another type of uncertainty: methodological uncertainty. This methodological uncertainty does encompass some elements of the usually-considered uncertainties. The motivations behind each decision can potentially differ per modeller. Hence, the consequent modelling results are inherently subjective, which results in a …