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An Integrated Modelling Approach For Assessing Water Policy Rules And Land Use Change Options, Juliet Gilmour, R. A. Letcher Jul 2002

An Integrated Modelling Approach For Assessing Water Policy Rules And Land Use Change Options, Juliet Gilmour, R. A. Letcher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The primary aim of the study has been to develop a modelling framework to quantitatively assess the impact of water allocation rules upon economic and biophysical environments (primarily hydrological) at the catchment scale. This paper identifies development of the modelling approach to answer allocation questions by examining hydrological, land and agricultural production systems. The conceptual framework underpinning the modelling approach identifies the major aspects of integration between hydrological and production systems. The production model is integrated at various points within the hydrological cycle including rainfall, streamflow and runoff components. The outcome of the approach allows water to be moved around …

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A Negotiation Support Tool For Assessment Of Land Use Change Impacts On Erosion In A Previously Forested Watershed In Lampung, Sumatra, Indonesia, B. J. P. Verbist, Meine Van Noordwijk, A. C. Tameling, K. C. L. Schmitz, S. B. L. Ranieri Jul 2002

A Negotiation Support Tool For Assessment Of Land Use Change Impacts On Erosion In A Previously Forested Watershed In Lampung, Sumatra, Indonesia, B. J. P. Verbist, Meine Van Noordwijk, A. C. Tameling, K. C. L. Schmitz, S. B. L. Ranieri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land use is changing rapidly in SE-Asia from forest to landscape mosaics with various degrees of tree cover. The relations between impacts at these different scales should recognize a range of 'lateral flow' and 'filter' phenomena. To develop concepts and an appropriate methodology, ICRAF and partner institutions study land use and its change in Sumberjaya, West-Lampung, Sumatra an area of about 730 km2, which encompasses a watershed, that was transformed in the past three decades from a large forest cover to a mosaic of coffee farms with rice paddies in the valleys and which has seen quite some conflict over …

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A Conceptual Model For Integrated Assessment, Markus Knoflacher Jul 2002

A Conceptual Model For Integrated Assessment, Markus Knoflacher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The challenge of integrated assessment is the integration of scientific and social aspects for the preparation of decisions. On one hand it is necessary to find scientific and technologically sound solutions, on the other hand the results should meet the interests of social groups affected by the particular project. In large projects it is also necessary to consider the effects on sustainable development. The bandwidth of the different aspects is in practise confronted with problems in acquisition of data, inhomogeneity and incompleteness of information about the actual conditions and the effects of the project. To solve the task in a …

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Modelling An Untended Scottish Forest Ecosystem Utilising Standard And Customised Software, S. J. J. Walker, R. Watling, H. J. Staines, A. Garside, D. Knott, J. W. Palfreyman, V. Krivtsov Jul 2002

Modelling An Untended Scottish Forest Ecosystem Utilising Standard And Customised Software, S. J. J. Walker, R. Watling, H. J. Staines, A. Garside, D. Knott, J. W. Palfreyman, V. Krivtsov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Heron Wood Reserve in Peeblesshire, Scotland is a 7.5-hectare wood, left untended tofacilitate investigation into a natural Scottish Forest Ecosystem. Data on fungal fruiting have been collectedsince 1994, and since November 2000 physico-chemical and biotic experiments on soil and forest litter havealso been conducted with the aim to construct and integrate a number of simulation sub-models of the variousecological systems present in an untended Scottish woodland. Important systems for modelling includepatterns of fungal succession, habitat characteristics and fungal biochemical patterns. For example, Glomalin,a protein secreted by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, is believed to bind soil particles together in stablestructures called …

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Egpe: A Computer Decision-Support Tool For The Ecomanagement Of Animal Manure As Agricultural Fertiliser, M. M. Vega, G. Carbonell, Mv Pablos, C. Ramos, C. Fernández, J. A. Ortíz, J. V. Tarazona Jul 2002

Egpe: A Computer Decision-Support Tool For The Ecomanagement Of Animal Manure As Agricultural Fertiliser, M. M. Vega, G. Carbonell, Mv Pablos, C. Ramos, C. Fernández, J. A. Ortíz, J. V. Tarazona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

EGPE is an object-oriented model, which estimates the environmental distribution ofcontaminants within different environmental compartments and the specific risk associated with thesesdistributions and final concentrations. This model evaluates environmental impacts related to: a) the use ofsludge/manure as fertiliser, and b) direct discharges of slurry or effluents from treatment plants to waterstreams. The program takes into account the physico-chemical interaction processes occurring after thedischarge, estimating the downstream evolution of the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, organicnitrogen, ammonia, nitrites and nitrates. Within the estimations it is also included the environmental risk forthe aquatic communities related to quantified pollutants and the overall toxicity of …

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Data Assimilation And Uncertainty Analysis Of Environmental Assessment Problems, Renata J. Romanowicz, Peter C. Young Jul 2002

Data Assimilation And Uncertainty Analysis Of Environmental Assessment Problems, Renata J. Romanowicz, Peter C. Young

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) techniques are outlined and applied to an environmental problem concerned with marine pollution dose assessment. The methods are used to estimate the amount and associated probability distributions of radionuclides transferred to marine biota from a given source: the British Nuclear Fuel Ltd (BNFL) repository plant in Sellafield, U.K. The complexity of the processes involved, together with the large dispersion and scarcity of observations regarding radionuclide concentrations in the marine environment, require efficient data assimilation techniques. In this regard, the basic STF methodology searches for identifiable, linear, Gaussian model structures that …

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Making Frameworks More Useable: Using Model Introspection And Metadata To Develop Model Processing Tools, J. M. Rahman, S. P. Seaton, S. M. Cuddy Jul 2002

Making Frameworks More Useable: Using Model Introspection And Metadata To Develop Model Processing Tools, J. M. Rahman, S. P. Seaton, S. M. Cuddy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Several modern development environments allow executable components, such as hydrologic models, to carry Metadata describing the properties and capabilities of the components. These metadata may be restricted to the names of properties, and their respective data types, or may extend to other information, such as classification of properties (eg. input or output), numeric constraints on parameters (eg. between 0 and 1, or greater than 0) or aliases (eg. rainfall, also known as precipitation). Introspection in these environments allows tool developers to write programs and other components that make use of these metadata to provide generic model processing tools, while allowing …

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Indirect Effect Of Habitat Destruction On Ecosystems, Nariyuki Nakagiri, K. Tainaka Jul 2002

Indirect Effect Of Habitat Destruction On Ecosystems, Nariyuki Nakagiri, K. Tainaka

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Habitat destruction is one of the primary causes of species extinction in recent history. Even if the destruction is restricted to a local and small area, its accumulation increases the risk of extinction. To study local destruction of habitat, we present a lattice ecosystem composed of prey (X) and predator (Y). This system corresponds to a lattice version of the Lotka-Volterra model, where interaction is allowed between neighboring lattice points. The lattice is partly destroyed, and destructed sites or barriers are randomly located between adjacent lattice points with the probability p. The barrier interrupts the reproduction of X, but the …

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Nano-Technology Patenting In The Usa, Dora Marinova, Michael Mcaleer Jul 2002

Nano-Technology Patenting In The Usa, Dora Marinova, Michael Mcaleer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In January 2002, the Australian Research Council categorised research related to nano-materialsand bio-materials as one of its four priority funding areas. Such projects are considered to be of paramountimportance because of the recognised potential of these technologies to improve product efficiency,conserve natural resources and help alleviate environmental problems. This paper uses a TechnologicalStrengths (TS) model based on patent statistics to: (1) analyse trends in the patenting of nano-technologiesin the USA, using data from 1975 to 2000 for patents lodged at the US Patent and Trademark Office; and(2) examine Australia’s contribution to the development of these technologies. The four elements of …

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Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton Jul 2002

Three-Dimensional Modelling Of A Microcystis Bloom Event In A Western Australian Estuary, Barbara J. Robson, David P. Hamilton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In January 2000, there was a record maximum rainfall throughout much of the watershed of the Swan River estuary, leading to the first reported Microcystis aeruginosa bloom in the estuary. Peak cell counts reached over 100,000 cells mL-1. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model, ELCOM-CAEDYM, is applied to the period of development and subsequent decline of the bloom. The model, previously calibrated for a more typical year (1995), accurately reproduced the unusual hydrodynamic circumstances and predicted the magnitude and timing of the Microcystis bloom. Salinity and temperature were the primary factors controlling the growth of Microcystis during the period of interest. …

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Multi-Model Integration In Decision Support System: A Technical User Interface Approach For Watershed And Lake Management Scenarios, David Lam, Luis F. León, Stuart Hamilton, Norm Crookshank, Derek Bonin, David Swayne Jul 2002

Multi-Model Integration In Decision Support System: A Technical User Interface Approach For Watershed And Lake Management Scenarios, David Lam, Luis F. León, Stuart Hamilton, Norm Crookshank, Derek Bonin, David Swayne

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Computer simulations using mathematical models provide useful tools to investigate different scenarios based on watershed management strategies and environmental conditions. To study the impact of these strategies and conditions, different models must be linked or coupled following hydrological pathways in air, soil and water. To connect one model to another successfully, we need to resolve a number of computational issues such as the compatibility of software tools and the consistency of the temporal and spatial scales and model assumptions used. To keep track of these issues and to provide efficient algorithms to resolve them, we propose to use a technical …

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Selecting The Appropriate Time Step In An Integrated Systems Model, Jean-Luc De Kok, H. G. Wind Jul 2002

Selecting The Appropriate Time Step In An Integrated Systems Model, Jean-Luc De Kok, H. G. Wind

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In recent years a variety of integrated system models to support the management of water systems appeared. Two examples are the RaMCo model for coastal-zone management and WadBOS for the Dutch Wadden Sea. A key aspect of the design is that ecological, economic, and physical process models are combined in an integrated systems network. In most cases a uniform mesh size and time step are used for all models, exceptions being made for processes requiring a lower or higher level of detail. The choice for a particular model is primarily based on data availability and modeling experience rather than sound …

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Comparison Between Water Quality Models For Toxics, C. Gualtieri Jul 2002

Comparison Between Water Quality Models For Toxics, C. Gualtieri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water quality models have been applied increasingly to represent the interaction between pollutants and aquatic environment due to transport and transformation phenomena: These models can be used to better understand pollution phenomena and to choose between different, alternative management strategies. The paper compares the results of two different water quality models, which have been applied to a water column-sediments system of a lake with an inflow contaminant loading. In the former, the system is idealized as well-mixed surface-water underlain by a well-mixed active sediment layer, where the resulting concentrations are attained by direct analytical solutions at the steady-state and in …

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Preliminary Assessment Of A Unit Hydrograph-Based Continuous Flow Simulation Model For Bulgarian Rivers, Daniela Zlatunova, George Gergov, I. G. Littlewood Jul 2002

Preliminary Assessment Of A Unit Hydrograph-Based Continuous Flow Simulation Model For Bulgarian Rivers, Daniela Zlatunova, George Gergov, I. G. Littlewood

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Daniela Zlatunovaa, George Gergovb and Ian Littlewoodc

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Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Of Rainfall-Runoff Processes And Its Application In A Complex Hydrological Context, K. Bogner, B. Hingray, A. Musy Jul 2002

Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Of Rainfall-Runoff Processes And Its Application In A Complex Hydrological Context, K. Bogner, B. Hingray, A. Musy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Although the inherent uncertainty associated with rainfall-runoff processes is well known, mostmathematical models of such systems are completely deterministic in nature. Stochastic modelling requiresthat the uncertainty, which is associated with both the model parameters and the stochastic inputs, shouldbe quantified in some manner as an inherent part of the modelling analysis. To achieve these objectives, aData-based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach will be tested for the Jura lake system (Switzerland). InDBM modelling, the most parsimonious model structure is first inferred statistically from the available timeseries. State dependent non-linear dependencies can be identified objectively from the rainfall and runoff dataand will be …

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Single-Objective Vs. Multiobjective Optimisation For Integrated Decision Support, Dragan Savic Jul 2002

Single-Objective Vs. Multiobjective Optimisation For Integrated Decision Support, Dragan Savic

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many optimisation problems, analysts are often confronted with multiobjective decision problems. The most common purpose of an analysis is to choose the best trade-offs among all the defined and conflicting objectives. However, many optimisation studies are formulated as a problem whose goal is to find the “best” solution, which corresponds to the minimum or maximum value of a single objective function that lumps all different objectives into one. Water distribution system design is a multiobjective problem for which it is difficult to identify the true benefits and constraints due primarily to the uncertainty in future demands. This paper shows …

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Modelling Of The Collective Decision Making Process For Compact Manufacture Organisation, D. N. Svirsky Jul 2002

Modelling Of The Collective Decision Making Process For Compact Manufacture Organisation, D. N. Svirsky

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper addresses the organisation and management of compact (i.e. unsuperfluous resources) systems. The definition of compact manufacturing system (CMS) as well as the basic principles and general algorithms of its design are given. It is shown that the difficult task of designing of a system is effectively solved by a "collective intelligence" system using concurrent engineering. The author offers to use the tensor analogy for collective intelligence system development. Thus, production (its mathematical model) is a semantic invariant of a manufacturing sector of its life cycle. The production information description is mapped into the systems of co-ordinates appropriate to …

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Environmental Damage Assessment Applied To Process Analysis. A Decision Support Alternative, I. Herrera, L. Kulay, Laureano Jiménez, Marta Schuhmacher Jul 2002

Environmental Damage Assessment Applied To Process Analysis. A Decision Support Alternative, I. Herrera, L. Kulay, Laureano Jiménez, Marta Schuhmacher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Nowadays the environmental studies are increasingly important in the process analysis and design. These studies not only can be used to quantify the environmental damage, but also, as optimisation criteria together with technical and economical evaluations. In the present study, we develop a methodology based on several techniques (Risk Assessment (RA), Design Support Framework (DSF), and Endpoints Indicators Applying). This methodology which links the main aspects of process analysis and environmental damage assessment, comprehends three main steps: the first one involves the accomplishment of an inventory of raw material and energetic streams, which may be predicted or computed depending on …

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Structures And Performances Of Five Rainfall-Runoff Models For Continuous River-Flow Simulation, M. Goswami, K. M. O’Connor, A. Y. Shamseldin Jul 2002

Structures And Performances Of Five Rainfall-Runoff Models For Continuous River-Flow Simulation, M. Goswami, K. M. O’Connor, A. Y. Shamseldin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Four black-box-type rainfall-runoff models, namely, the Simple Linear Model, the seasonallybasedLinear Perturbation Model, the wetness-index-based Linearly Varying Gain Factor Model, and theArtificial Neural Network Model, along with the conceptual Soil Moisture Accounting and Routing Model,were used for this study. The models exhibit a considerable range of variation in degree of structuralcomplexity and associated parameter parsimony, with corresponding degrees of complication in objectivefunction evaluation. Hence they represent a family of models suitable for application in both developed anddeveloping countries. Operating in continuous river-flow simulation mode, these models and techniqueswere applied to six test catchments representing wide variability in geographic location, climatic …

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Lexicographic Optimisation For Water Resources Planning: The Case Of Lake Verbano, Italy, E. Weber, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti Jul 2002

Lexicographic Optimisation For Water Resources Planning: The Case Of Lake Verbano, Italy, E. Weber, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lake Verbano is a natural lake used as multipurpose reservoir. The lake supplies water for irrigation and hydropower generation to downstream users, while flood controls are applied to protect the lake shores and the downstream populations on the Ticino river, and environmental preservation constraints must be respected. All these objectives are conflicting and they have different priorities, as stated by the Italian regulation on water use. This paper explores a methodology aimed at solving this conflict. The stakeholders involvement in the decision making process is supported by a Multi Objective Decision Support System for the management of water reservoirs. It …

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Environmental Assessment Integrated With Process Simulation For Process Design, I. Herrera, Marta Schuhmacher, Laureano Jiménez, F. Castells Jul 2002

Environmental Assessment Integrated With Process Simulation For Process Design, I. Herrera, Marta Schuhmacher, Laureano Jiménez, F. Castells

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The decisions within design and renovation of processes have traditionally been based only on technical and economic aspects. The impacts that waste emissions have on the environment have been taken in consideration after setting the basic lines of the project and even after having fixed the layout. A new approach, involving all these issues at the same time, has been developed in order to make better use of natural resources. The aim of this work is to integrate both process design and environmental tools in order to develop a methodology that involves, simultaneously, environmental analysis and process modelling. This methodology …

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Use Of The Usped Model For Mapping Soil Erosion And Managing Best Land Conservation Practices, A. Pistocchi, G. Cassani, O. Zani Jul 2002

Use Of The Usped Model For Mapping Soil Erosion And Managing Best Land Conservation Practices, A. Pistocchi, G. Cassani, O. Zani

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper describes the implementation of the USPED model proposed by Mitasova et al. [1996]by the Romagna River Basin authority. The method is based on a detailed terrain analysis performed on a 10m grid DEM, and includes an evaluation of the USLE K and C factors to predict soil erosion and depositionpatterns at the landscape scale. The method is implemented within a GIS environment and used to map soilerosion hazard and to decide about land use constraints towards soil conservation. The predicted patterns arecompared with those detectable in the field and with the prediction of the shallow landslide hazard predictorSHALSTAB …

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An Application Of Queuing Theory To Waterfowl Migration, Richard S. Sojda, John E. Cornely, Leigh H. Fredrickson Jul 2002

An Application Of Queuing Theory To Waterfowl Migration, Richard S. Sojda, John E. Cornely, Leigh H. Fredrickson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There has always been great interest in the migration of waterfowl and other birds. We have applied queuing theory to modelling waterfowl migration, beginning with a prototype system for the Rocky Mountain Population of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) in Western North America. The queuing model can be classified as a D/BB/28 system, and we describe the input sources, service mechanism, and network configuration of queues and servers. The intrinsic nature of queuing theory is to represent the spatial and temporal characteristics of entities and how they move, are placed in queues, and are serviced. The service mechanism in our system …

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Plant Disease Models. Critical Issues In Development And Use, A. Susi, A. Perini, E. Olivetti Jul 2002

Plant Disease Models. Critical Issues In Development And Use, A. Susi, A. Perini, E. Olivetti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Models which simulate the evolution of a plant disease during the season give important informationto assess the seriousness of the situation. This activity precedes the choice of an appropriate action to be implementedfor reducing the economical damage. Having effective models is a critical issue in modern agriculture,especially in Integrated Protection and Organic Farming, which rest on a set of plant disease managementpractices with low environmental impact.Considerable effort has gone in the study of models for the simulation of plant diseases evolution. Phenologymodels, population and epidemiological models have been developed for several, diffused diseases. Problemsare still open, especially when the aim …

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Integrated Modelling And Decision Support Tools: A Mediterranean Example, T. Oxley, N. Winder, Brian Mcintosh, M. Mulligan, Guy Engelen Jul 2002

Integrated Modelling And Decision Support Tools: A Mediterranean Example, T. Oxley, N. Winder, Brian Mcintosh, M. Mulligan, Guy Engelen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A great deal of new knowledge and research material has been generated from research carried out under the auspices of the EU. However, only a small amount has been made available as practical policysupport tools. In this paper we describe how EU funded research models and understanding has been integrated into an interactive Decision Support System addressing physical, economic and social aspects of land degradation in the Mediterranean. We summarise the 10 constituent models that simulate hydrology, human influences, crops, natural vegetation and climatic conditions. The models operate on very different spatial and temporal scales and utilise different modelling techniques …

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Multi Criteria Evaluation Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies, S. Mandera, C. Gough Jul 2002

Multi Criteria Evaluation Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies, S. Mandera, C. Gough

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Achieving a low carbon energy supply in a future society driven by the impacts of climate change will require huge technological changes. This paper compares the methodological implications of assessing two very different technological solutions – renewable energy and geological carbon sequestration. The UK has high renewable resources, in particular the highest wind resource in Europe. In contrast, atmospheric emissions from fossil fuels could be avoided by storing carbon dioxide in underground geological formations for which the UK has a huge potential capacity. These two technological approaches will have diverse and wide ranging impacts; both inspire views amongst stakeholders that …

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Implementing A Process-Based Decision Support Tool For Natural Resource Management - The Geowepp Example, C. S. Renschler, D.C. Flanagan Jul 2002

Implementing A Process-Based Decision Support Tool For Natural Resource Management - The Geowepp Example, C. S. Renschler, D.C. Flanagan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Practical decision-making in spatially distributed natural resource management is increasingly based on process models linked to Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Geo-spatial environmental data and decision support tools can now be made available to a much larger audience by using powerful personal computers and internet-accessible mapping tools. Traditionally decision support tools based on process models were not typically developed for applications across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales of interest, utilizing commonly available data of variable precision and accuracy, and Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) to communicate with a diverse spectrum of users with different levels of expertise. To implement …

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Agent Based Simulation In Integrated Assessment And Resources Management, Claudia Pahl-Wostl Jul 2002

Agent Based Simulation In Integrated Assessment And Resources Management, Claudia Pahl-Wostl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Resource management problems have become more and more complex. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful and integrated attitude. Hence it becomes more and more important to develop appropriate means for representing the human dimension in integrated models and in the development of resource management regimes. This involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving and thus to include as well stakeholder perspectives. Stakeholder should be included in the process of developing and adopting any resource management plan. In order to improve stakeholder-based policy …

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Participatory Decision Making In Reservoir Planning, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti, E. Weber Jul 2002

Participatory Decision Making In Reservoir Planning, R. Soncini-Sessa, A. Castelletti, E. Weber

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The technologies and methods for integrated planning and management of water resource systemshave matured considerably over the past decades. However, relatively few of them have been actually and regularlyapplied in real world decisional processes. We feel this is essentially due to a general lack of engagementof stakeholders and decision makers at every stage of the decisional process. Innovative methodologies andtools to improve participation are presented, with focus on water reservoir systems

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An Agent-Group-Role Based Modelling Framework For Participative Water Management Support, Geraldine Abrami, Olivier Barreteau, Flavie Cernesson Jul 2002

An Agent-Group-Role Based Modelling Framework For Participative Water Management Support, Geraldine Abrami, Olivier Barreteau, Flavie Cernesson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agent-based modelling can be used as a tool for participative water management support. Within this framework, we want to develop architectural features that can improve system understanding at the collective and individual levels. We present a modelling framework which aims at bringing particular insights into the interrelations between temporal, spatial and social scales of the resource management process. To study these links, we adopt an approach based on the notions of role, group and agent: roles represent the functions of agents as members of a group; a group consists of a set of agents that interact in a process through …

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