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A Nearest-Neighbour Surrogate Model For The Simulation Of Rainwater Tanks, J. Dugge, P. Pedruco, M. J. Hardy Jul 2012

A Nearest-Neighbour Surrogate Model For The Simulation Of Rainwater Tanks, J. Dugge, P. Pedruco, M. J. Hardy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mathematical modelling of decentralised water supply options requires a finertemporal resolution than models of centralised regional systems. To avoid having to runa coarse scale model with the timestep needed for the fine scale model, the latter can beupscaled to a larger timestep. One way of doing this is to use a surrogate model.This paper presents a nearest-neighbour surrogate model for upscaling a detailed clusterscale urban water model from a sub-daily to a monthly time scale. The approach consistsof running a detailed cluster model with a fine temporal resolution using a historicalrainfall timeseries, adjusting the daily rainfall values by clipping peaks …

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An Agent-Based Model For Assessing Effects Of A Chinese Pes Programme On Land-Use Change Along With Livelihood Dynamics, And Land Degradation And Restoration, Takafumi Miyasaka, Quang Bao Le, Toshiya Okuro, Xueyong Zhao, Roland W. Scholz, Kazuhiko Takeuchi Jul 2012

An Agent-Based Model For Assessing Effects Of A Chinese Pes Programme On Land-Use Change Along With Livelihood Dynamics, And Land Degradation And Restoration, Takafumi Miyasaka, Quang Bao Le, Toshiya Okuro, Xueyong Zhao, Roland W. Scholz, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Some Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programmes are designed to restore ecosystem services degraded by desertification, but evaluation of their effects are not straightforward because of complex human-environment systems (HES) in drylands. A PES system is used across China (the Sloping Land Conversion Programme, SLCP), including desertified regions. Previous research on SLCP indicated the lack of HES approaches to enable the integrated assessment of socio-ecological long-term effects of the programme. In particular, assessment was needed of: (1) multiple benefits, which cannot be positively correlated, including their cost-effectiveness, and (2) the effect of shifts in economic structure, particularly from agriculture to …

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Identifying The Decision To Be Supported: A Review Of Papers From Environmental Modelling And Software, Richard S. Sojda, Serena H. Chen, Sondoss El Sawah, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman, Sven Lautenbach, Brian Mcintosh, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, Ralf Seppelt, Peter Struss, Alexey A. Voinov, Martin Volk Jul 2012

Identifying The Decision To Be Supported: A Review Of Papers From Environmental Modelling And Software, Richard S. Sojda, Serena H. Chen, Sondoss El Sawah, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman, Sven Lautenbach, Brian Mcintosh, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli, Ralf Seppelt, Peter Struss, Alexey A. Voinov, Martin Volk

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Two of the basic tenets of decision support system efforts are to help identify and structure the decisions to be supported, and to then provide analysis in how those decisions might be best made. One example from wetland management would be that wildlife biologists must decide when to draw down water levels to optimise aquatic invertebrates as food for breeding ducks. Once such a decision is identified, a system or tool to help them make that decision in the face of current and projected climate conditions could be developed. We examined a random sample of 100 papers published from 2001-2011 …

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Analysis Of Water Resource Allocation And Water Quality For Low Flow River In Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview, Rubab Fatima Bangash, Ana Passuello, Marta Schuhmacher Jul 2012

Analysis Of Water Resource Allocation And Water Quality For Low Flow River In Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview, Rubab Fatima Bangash, Ana Passuello, Marta Schuhmacher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Global change impacts on water availability, water quality and ecosystemservices in Mediterranean river basins of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as theirimpacts on the human society and economy makes it a key issue on the EUagenda. It is likely that Mediterranean countries could suffer ever-more frequentregional water shortages due to the twin problems of climate change and risingdemand. Simulation with hydrological model provides insight into the nature andstructure of connections between water resources and socio-economic andenvironmental changes. The general aim of this study is to provide a better overallunderstanding of water scarcity and results of loss of quality in low …

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Integrated Eco-Hydrological Modelling By A Combination Of Coupled-Model And Algorithm Using Oms3, Gaofeng Zhang, Jian Zhou, Qingguo Zhou, Guodong Cheng, Xin Li Jul 2012

Integrated Eco-Hydrological Modelling By A Combination Of Coupled-Model And Algorithm Using Oms3, Gaofeng Zhang, Jian Zhou, Qingguo Zhou, Guodong Cheng, Xin Li

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Modelling integration using the component-based and modular approach has become an effective method to understand the critical component interactions and processes in complicated natural systems. This study developed an integrated eco-hydrological model using Object Modelling System 3 (OMS3) to improve water resources utilization and predict crop production in local agricultural management. In the integrated eco-hydrological model, the crop growth model, WOFOST, and the hydrological model, HYDRUS-1D were coupled into the OMS3 framework. The parameters optimization, uncertainty analysis/sensitivity analysis (UA/SA), data assimilation were conducted through creating and configuring model simulation by the simulating Domain Specific Language (DSL) in the OMS3. The …

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A Nearest-Neighbour Surrogate Model For The Simulation Of Rainwater Tanks, J. Dugge, P. Pedruco, M. J. Hardy Jul 2012

A Nearest-Neighbour Surrogate Model For The Simulation Of Rainwater Tanks, J. Dugge, P. Pedruco, M. J. Hardy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mathematical modelling of decentralised water supply options requires a finertemporal resolution than models of centralised regional systems. To avoid having to runa coarse scale model with the timestep needed for the fine scale model, the latter can beupscaled to a larger timestep. One way of doing this is to use a surrogate model.This paper presents a nearest-neighbour surrogate model for upscaling a detailed clusterscale urban water model from a sub-daily to a monthly time scale. The approach consistsof running a detailed cluster model with a fine temporal resolution using a historicalrainfall timeseries, adjusting the daily rainfall values by clipping peaks …

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Regional Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resources: The Jucar Basin, Spain, Chirivella Osma Jul 2012

Regional Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resources: The Jucar Basin, Spain, Chirivella Osma

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Spanish Agency of Metereology (AEMET) released in 2008 a set ofdownscaled climate change scenarios over Spain that are the reference to betaken by other public bodies implicated in the development of adaptationstrategies. In this paper AEMET scenarios are analysed for the control period(1960-1990), for the period 2010-2040, and their impact on water resources isassessed by means of a rainfall-runoff model. It is found that over the controlperiod, where the simulated scenarios can be compared against historical records,these scenarios honour temperature records. However, there are significantdifferences for rainfall. AEMET scenarios yield average precipitations that arelower (by 20%) than historical records. …

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Linked Data In Renewable Energy Domain, Henry Abanda, Joseph Tah Jul 2012

Linked Data In Renewable Energy Domain, Henry Abanda, Joseph Tah

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The vision of the Semantic Web is to build a global Web of data that links different resources. To this end, the first step is to put data on the Web in the form that machines can naturally understand or convert to useful forms. This can be achieved through Linked Data technology, an emerging publishing paradigm in which not only documents, but also data are linked over the Web. The ultimate goal underpinning Linked Data is to enable different individuals and organisations to efficiently contribute and share data about different domains. Climate change impacts and/or energy scarcity are among the …

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Modeling Water Flow And Nutrient Losses (Nitrogen, Phosphorus) At A Nested Meso Scale Catchment, Germany, Sanyuan Jiang, Michael Rode Jul 2012

Modeling Water Flow And Nutrient Losses (Nitrogen, Phosphorus) At A Nested Meso Scale Catchment, Germany, Sanyuan Jiang, Michael Rode

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Eutrophication of stream water due to nutrient inputs has become a worldwide aquatic problem. Understanding nutrient transport processes and the relationship with hydrologic processes is important for water resource management and prediction of stream water quality under climate and land use change. In this study we used the integrated process-based hydrologic and water quality model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) to simulate water flow and stream water nutrient concentrations (nitrogen and phosphorus) at a meso scale nested catchment (Selke) in Germany. The hydrograph was represented well with NSCE of 0.84 and was characterized by high flow during winter due …

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Blueprint For A Unifying Framework For Synthesis Of Aquatic Ecodynamics, Matthew R. Hipsey, David P. Hamilton, Paul C. Hanson, Justin D. Brookes, Dennis Trolle, Louise C. Bruce Jul 2012

Blueprint For A Unifying Framework For Synthesis Of Aquatic Ecodynamics, Matthew R. Hipsey, David P. Hamilton, Paul C. Hanson, Justin D. Brookes, Dennis Trolle, Louise C. Bruce

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Quantitative assessments of aquatic ecosystem dynamics and servicesare required to guide decision support activities and assess how socioeconomicscenarios of human development impact our aquatic environment. However, weare poorly equipped to predict across a broad range of scales the physical,biogeochemical and ecological interactions that control carbon and nutrient fluxpathways, despite a plethora of models and model approaches that have emerged.Our models have languished due to ambiguities and lack of agreement in modelconceptualisations, a focus on point-scale rather than system-scale validation, anda general inability to deal with uncertainty, particularly in spatially-resolved interdisciplinarymodels. Further, the site-specific and highly disciplinary nature of manymodel applications …

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Impacts Of Management Options On Water Deficits, Losses And Livelihoods In The Jaguaribe Basin Of North East Brazil, Anthony P. Hurford, Ivana Huskova, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou Jul 2012

Impacts Of Management Options On Water Deficits, Losses And Livelihoods In The Jaguaribe Basin Of North East Brazil, Anthony P. Hurford, Ivana Huskova, Evgenii S. Matrosov, Julien J. Harou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The north east of Brazil is the driest region of Brazil; rainfall is seasonal andreservoirs and transfer systems are used such as in the Jaguaribe basin studied here.Reservoir releases from the Jaguaribe’s three major reservoirs are decided through bi-annualnegotiations involving the local water management authority and water users. This paperinvestigates impacts of different management options in the Jaguaribe basin using severaldifferent system performance measures. We use an 89 year historical hydrological record toinvestigate the inter-basin transfer options and to investigate changing the current policyrequiring at least 30 months of municipal demand to be stored at all times. We apply multiobjectivesearch …

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Human Decision Making For Empirical Agent-Based Models: Construction And Validation, Grace B. Villamor, Meine Van Noordwijk, Klaus G. Troitzsch, Paul L. G. Vlek Jul 2012

Human Decision Making For Empirical Agent-Based Models: Construction And Validation, Grace B. Villamor, Meine Van Noordwijk, Klaus G. Troitzsch, Paul L. G. Vlek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Results from agent-based or multi-agent simulation (AB/MAS) modelling can provide relevant information for policy makers, scientists and stakeholders about the boundary conditions of rural development and the uncertainties involved in land-use/cover change (LUCC). However, the process of model validation that can build trust in the outcomes for new parameter conditions and in future scenarios is not a trivial problem. Apparently, no common measure of the degree of confounding between parameterization and validation data sets exists. The current lack of success and the effort necessary for validating the models can be traced to the weak theoretical representation of human decision making …

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Core Network Compartments: Relative Importance Of Ecosystems Players In Moving Energy Through The System, Ursula M. Scharler, Brian D. Fath Jul 2012

Core Network Compartments: Relative Importance Of Ecosystems Players In Moving Energy Through The System, Ursula M. Scharler, Brian D. Fath

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystems that are depicted as nodes (species groups) and links (trophic transfers) encompass well defined roles in terms of their trophic structure. Some are primary producers and furnish the system with newly bound energy or nutrients, whereas others divide themselves over various trophic levels creating a hierarchy of energy use and reuse. All waste and mortality products of nodes comprise the non-living environment of ecosystems, often supporting a considerable part of the system as detritus. All food sources are in general used, but are so to variable extents. Some links are always among the major links, e.g. flows from detritus …

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Credal Model Averaging: Dealing Robustly With Model Uncertainty On Small Data Sets., A. Mignatti, G. Corani, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli Jul 2012

Credal Model Averaging: Dealing Robustly With Model Uncertainty On Small Data Sets., A. Mignatti, G. Corani, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Datasets of population dynamics are typically characterized by a short temporal extension. In this condition, several alternative models typically achieve close accuracy, though returning quite different predictions (model uncertainty). Bayesian model averaging (BMA) addresses this issue by averaging the prediction of the different models, using as weights the posterior probability of the models. However, an open problem of BMA is the choice of the prior probability of the models, which can largely impact on the inferences, especially when data are scarce. We present Credal Model Averaging (CMA), which addresses this problem by simultaneously considering a set of prior probability distributions …

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Safe Operating Spaces For Human Water Use: Applying Exploratory Modeling And Patient Rule Induction To Anemi, Jan Kwakkel, J. S. Timmermans Jul 2012

Safe Operating Spaces For Human Water Use: Applying Exploratory Modeling And Patient Rule Induction To Anemi, Jan Kwakkel, J. S. Timmermans

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Safe operating space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive can be defined with respect to among others global freshwater use. Establishing such limits is a methodological challenge because they are critically depended on local conditions, the role of management, and financial and institutional capacity in magnifying or ameliorating problems. Moreover estimates of these limits are plagued by uncertainty arising out of conflicting models, regional variations, limitation of expansion of water use through financial and institutional capacity, and uncertainty about the realization and efficiency …

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Enhancing Model Reuse Via Component-Centered Modeling Frameworks: The Vision And Example Realizations, Marcello Donatelli, Iacopo Cerrani, Davide Fanchini, Davide Fumagalli, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli Jul 2012

Enhancing Model Reuse Via Component-Centered Modeling Frameworks: The Vision And Example Realizations, Marcello Donatelli, Iacopo Cerrani, Davide Fanchini, Davide Fumagalli, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Model frameworks have represented a substantial step forward with respect to monolithic implementations of biophysical models. However, the diffusion of such frameworks, as model development environment, beyond the groups developing them has been very modest. The reusability of models has also proved to be modest. The reason for the latter was attributed also to the lack of standardization toward few frameworks. Emphasis has been placed on the framework and even new implementations of models have been made targeting a specific framework, likely assuming that the reusability of the model unit would have been directly proportional to the quality of the …

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The Spatial Data Analyzer As A Model Visualization And Analysis Tool, Qimiao Lu, Thorsten Arnold Jul 2012

The Spatial Data Analyzer As A Model Visualization And Analysis Tool, Qimiao Lu, Thorsten Arnold

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Landscape processes are dynamic in time. Models are readily available to describe these processes in time and space, and watershed managers worldwide are handling a great number and variety of models and highdimensional data. With a variety of scenarios of each model type, and with increasing temporal resolution, model outputs quickly exceed the quantity that GIS applications can handle conveniently. Tools are needed that allow analyzing diverse models and their scenarios within a single software front-end, such that modelers minimize the time spent on quality control, peer review, data reformatting, error tracking and software handling. The Spatial Data Analyzer© (SDA), …

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Bridging The Gap Between Modellers And Model Users, Why Does This Gap Exist And What Can We Do About It?, Onno Roosenschoon, Stefan Reis, John Turnpenny, Camilla Adele, Klaus Jacob, Dirk Wascher, Sabine Weiland, Katharina Helming, Aranka Podhora, Jan-Erik J. F. Wien Jul 2012

Bridging The Gap Between Modellers And Model Users, Why Does This Gap Exist And What Can We Do About It?, Onno Roosenschoon, Stefan Reis, John Turnpenny, Camilla Adele, Klaus Jacob, Dirk Wascher, Sabine Weiland, Katharina Helming, Aranka Podhora, Jan-Erik J. F. Wien

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Many impact assessment (IA) models focus on effects of policy measures on environment and ecology. There are various examples of sophisticated IA models and models that are actually used in the policy making process. However, in many cases, there is still is a gap between the actual and potential use of these models in IA. Why is this so and what can be improved about this? The LIAISE project (www.liaise-noe.eu) is initiated to investigate just this. The hypothesis is that in many cases model use is not successful, because there is a gap between the two communities of IA researchers …

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Providing Scientific Certainty In Predictive Decision Support: The Role Of Closed Questions, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman Jul 2012

Providing Scientific Certainty In Predictive Decision Support: The Role Of Closed Questions, Joseph H. A. Guillaume, A. J. Jakeman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Uncertainty in scientific predictions of outcome of decisions is currently of substantial interest, with a common perception, at least in groundwater modelling, that some decision makers have unrealistic expectations of accuracy. A feeling shared by some practitioners is that with a proper stakeholder engagement process, uncertainty is no longer such a difficult issue. This paper argues that the key is precisely specifying purpose and expectations, and the definition of closed questions provides a useful approach to do so. A closed question, also known as a fixed-choice or pre-coded question, has a finite set of answers, e.g. yes/no or A, B, …

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A Logic-Based Model For Uncertainty Reduction: Parallel Processing, Omar Doukari, Robert Jeansoulin Jul 2012

A Logic-Based Model For Uncertainty Reduction: Parallel Processing, Omar Doukari, Robert Jeansoulin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) often use incomplete and uncertain informationleading to inconsistency. Thus, a clear definition of information revision is required. Inlogic, most of the usual belief revision operations are characterized by a high computationalcomplexity, which implies actual intractability even for rather small data sets. Onthe other hand, GIS deal with large amounts of data, what means that revision is practicallyimpossible. This challenge can be addressed only if a local belief revision strategycan be defined. In this paper, a new model for spatial information representation isdefined, called G-structure model, and a local belief revision is designed, in order to answer,piece-by-piece, …

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Iedss As A Tool For The Integrated Assessment Of Conventional And Innovative Wastewater Treatment Technologies For Nutrient Removal, Rubén Reif, Manel Garrido-Baserba, Manel Poch Jul 2012

Iedss As A Tool For The Integrated Assessment Of Conventional And Innovative Wastewater Treatment Technologies For Nutrient Removal, Rubén Reif, Manel Garrido-Baserba, Manel Poch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive 91/271/EEC states that wastewaters from populations higher than 2,000 people equivalent must receive appropriate treatment with the aim of improving the ecological status of the receiving aquatic environment. In this context, ‘appropriate treatment’ is defined as one that fulfils the quality standards set for the receiving waters. This stricter regulation suggest new dimensions of analysis where the affected environments and socioeconomic criteria, together with the characteristics of the available wastewater treatment technologies are to be taken into account for the design of new facilities and the upgrade of existing ones. Thus, in order to deal …

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Improved Dynamic Emulation Modeling By Time Series Clustering: The Case Study Of Marina Reservoir, Singapore, S. Galelli, S. Caietti Marin, A. Castelletti, H. Eikaas Jul 2012

Improved Dynamic Emulation Modeling By Time Series Clustering: The Case Study Of Marina Reservoir, Singapore, S. Galelli, S. Caietti Marin, A. Castelletti, H. Eikaas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo) is emerging as a viable solution tocombine computationally intensive simulation models and dynamic optimization algorithms.A dynamic emulator is a low order surrogate of the simulation model identifiedover a sample data set generated by the original simulation model itself. When appliedto large 3D models, any DEMo exercise does require a pre-processing of the exogenousdrivers and state variables in order to reduce, by spatial aggregation, the high numberof candidate variables to appear in the final emulator. This work describes a hybridclustering-variable selection approach to automatically discover compact and relevantrepresentations of high-dimensional data sets. Time series clustering is adopted …

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Analysis Of Water Resource Allocation And Water Quality For Low Flow River In Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview, Rubab Fatima Bangash, Ana Passuello, Marta Schuhmacher Jul 2012

Analysis Of Water Resource Allocation And Water Quality For Low Flow River In Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview, Rubab Fatima Bangash, Ana Passuello, Marta Schuhmacher

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Global change impacts on water availability, water quality and ecosystemservices in Mediterranean river basins of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as theirimpacts on the human society and economy makes it a key issue on the EUagenda. It is likely that Mediterranean countries could suffer ever-more frequentregional water shortages due to the twin problems of climate change and risingdemand. Simulation with hydrological model provides insight into the nature andstructure of connections between water resources and socio-economic andenvironmental changes. The general aim of this study is to provide a better overallunderstanding of water scarcity and results of loss of quality in low …

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Participatory Analysis Of The Sustainability Of Livelihoods In The Agro-Ecosystem Of Abesard, Iran, Hadi Veisi, Sahar Bagheri Toulabi Jul 2012

Participatory Analysis Of The Sustainability Of Livelihoods In The Agro-Ecosystem Of Abesard, Iran, Hadi Veisi, Sahar Bagheri Toulabi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper reports some of the results of a study to explore vulnerabilitycontexts i.e. trends, shocks and local cultural practices that affect livelihood assetsi.e. natural capital (land, water, biodiversity), physical capital (infrastructure,machinery), human capital (labour, skills), financial capital (savings, disposableassets), and social capital (rights, support systems) in Abesard, Iran. It alsodescribes structures, including organizations (government, private), and processes,including policies, laws and incentives, that determine the livelihood strategies ofhouseholds (agricultural intensification or expansion, livelihood diversification, andmigration) which, in turn, impact the assets. Participatory vulnerability analysis(PVA) was used within a sustainable rural livelihoods (SRL) framework to assessthe differences of the livelihoods of …

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Integrated Ecological Modelling For Decision Support In The Integrated Urban Water System Modelling Of The Drava River (Varazdin, Croatia), Javier E. Holguin, Gert Everaert, Lorenzo Benedetti, Youri Amerlinck, Peter L. M. Goethals Jul 2012

Integrated Ecological Modelling For Decision Support In The Integrated Urban Water System Modelling Of The Drava River (Varazdin, Croatia), Javier E. Holguin, Gert Everaert, Lorenzo Benedetti, Youri Amerlinck, Peter L. M. Goethals

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Legal physical-chemical emission limits are traditionally used forassessing the effectiveness of urban sanitation infrastructure. However, thereceiving water’s ecological aspects are disregarded with this conventionalapproach. European legislation (i.e. Water Framework Directive-WFD) now has anintegrated approach of river management, which considers the concept ofecological status. Furthermore, the WFD urges the adoption of a combined analysisof emission limits values and physical-chemical and ecological aspects of thereceiving waters and encourage the availability and use of decision support tools forwater management such as simulation models. Croatia has signed agreements tojoin the European Union (EU) and thus taken up the obligation to coordinate itslegislation with EU …

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Action Prioritization To Address The Silao- Romita Aquifer Problem Through The Analytic Hierarchy Method, Xitlali Delgado-Galván, Joaquín Izquierdo, Julio Benítez, Rafael Pérez-García, Jesús Martínez Jul 2012

Action Prioritization To Address The Silao- Romita Aquifer Problem Through The Analytic Hierarchy Method, Xitlali Delgado-Galván, Joaquín Izquierdo, Julio Benítez, Rafael Pérez-García, Jesús Martínez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Silao-Romita aquifer is located on the west-central state of Guanajuato, Mexico. The main problems of this area are over-exploitation and pollution, which cause other specific problems. The objective of the present work is to analyze the current situation to establish a new prioritization of action plans. To this purpose, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the participation of one of the main actors involved. In AHP the input format for decision-makers to express their preferences regarding criteria and alternatives derives from pair-wise comparisons to build the comparison matrices. The matrix of criteria shows how much importance a …

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Regional Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resources: The Jucar Basin, Spain, Chirivella Osma Jul 2012

Regional Impacts Of Climate Change On Water Resources: The Jucar Basin, Spain, Chirivella Osma

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Spanish Agency of Metereology (AEMET) released in 2008 a set ofdownscaled climate change scenarios over Spain that are the reference to betaken by other public bodies implicated in the development of adaptationstrategies. In this paper AEMET scenarios are analysed for the control period(1960-1990), for the period 2010-2040, and their impact on water resources isassessed by means of a rainfall-runoff model. It is found that over the controlperiod, where the simulated scenarios can be compared against historical records,these scenarios honour temperature records. However, there are significantdifferences for rainfall. AEMET scenarios yield average precipitations that arelower (by 20%) than historical records. …

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The Informatics Of The Hydrological Modelling System Jgrass-Newage, G. Formetta, Andrea Antonello, S. Franceschi, Olaf David, R. Rigon Jul 2012

The Informatics Of The Hydrological Modelling System Jgrass-Newage, G. Formetta, Andrea Antonello, S. Franceschi, Olaf David, R. Rigon

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes the structure of JGrass-NewAge: a system for hydrological forecasting and management at the basin scale. It is based on the Geographic Information System uDig and composed of two parts: (i) the system for data and result visualization based on JGrass and (ii) the modelling components. The latter are implemented as OMS3 components, which can be connected or excluded at runtime, according to the needs of who runs the model, and work seamlessly inside the uDig ver.1.3.1 spatial toolbox. Compared to other models which are built upon monolithic code, JGrass-NewAge allows for having multiple modelling solutions for the …

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Shocks In Coupled Socio-Ecological Systems: What Are They And How Can We Model Them?, Tatiana Filatova, Gary Polhill Jul 2012

Shocks In Coupled Socio-Ecological Systems: What Are They And How Can We Model Them?, Tatiana Filatova, Gary Polhill

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) are complex systems characterized by self-organization, non-linearities, interactions among heterogeneous elements within each subsystem, and feedbacks across scales and among subsystems. When such a system experiences a shock or a crisis, the consequences are difficult to predict. In this paper we first define what a shock or a crisis means for SES. Depending on where the system boundary is drawn, shocks can be seen as exogenous or endogenous. For example, human intervention in environmental systems could be seen as exogenous, but endogenous in a socio-environmental system. This difference in the origin and nature of shocks has …

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The Church Educational System: A Conversation With Roger G. Christensen, Casey Paul Griffiths Jul 2012

The Church Educational System: A Conversation With Roger G. Christensen, Casey Paul Griffiths

Religious Educator: Perspectives on the Restored Gospel

No abstract provided.

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