Digital Commons Network^™

Analyzing The Relationship Between Climate, Vegetation Characteristics, And Water Use For The Oklahoma City Metro Area, Jennifer Koch, Tracy Boyer, Heather Mccarthy, Peter Kedron, Monika Ghimire, Qingtao Zhou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Oklahoma’s highly variable weather and large precipitation gradient work together with population growth and urbanization to create a landscape that is extremely vulnerable to climatic extremes. As shown by the drought in 2011-2013, Oklahoma’s municipal water supply has come under stress from additional demand. To develop sustainable natural resource supplies that support a vibrant economy with healthy citizens, we need to develop robust understanding of these complex socio-environmental systems, which can be used to empower decision makers to effectively adapt to climate variability/change. For this purpose, we develop a spatio-temporal simulation model for the Oklahoma City Metropolitan area, which helps …

Developing An Integrated Model For Food-Energy-Water Nexus In The Pacific Northwest, Usa, Seyed Mohammad Hossien Tabatabaie, Ganti Murthy

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

With growing populations and the changing climate, the importance of food, energy, and water (FEW) security has become a global issue. The competition for natural resources has caused the recognition of FEW nexus concept in which the interdependency between FEW sectors is taken into account for the effective management of resources with an enhanced understanding of underlying dynamics. In this context, developing an integrated model supported by a comprehensive quantitative framework is necessary. Although there are numerous studies on FEW nexus, limited research has been done on developing mathematical equations to model the FEW nexus. The goal of this study …

Moving From Eco-Forecasts To Eco-Projections, Brian W. Miller, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Jamie K. Reaser

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecological models can provide estimates of future conditions that are useful for decision-making, including long-term planning and resource prioritization. However, these models often rely on assumptions about ecological relationships and trajectories, forcings (e.g., biophysical conditions), and management approaches that may not be explicitly considered. To make assumptions more transparent, disciplines such as economics, demographics, climatology, and national intelligence make a fairly clear and consistent distinction between “forecasts” and “projections”. Forecasts are typically more near-term and rely on extending existing relationships and trends to estimate the most likely future conditions; whereas projections evaluate conditions under multiple scenarios that are based on …

Creation Of A Data Model To Retrieve Constrained Watershed Boundaries., Scott Haag, Ali Shokoufandeh, Austin Gentry

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When using flow direction grids to describe impacts to streams and watershed pour points two spatial scales of interest are commonly applied, the entire watershed and the local stream catchment. In this presentation we describe an alternative approach referred to as the constrained watershed boundary. Specifically, we define a constrained watershed as a polygon containing all the flow direction grid cells with a surface flow distance less than a prescribed threshold. The proposed algorithm builds upon the HSM algorithm, as described by Haag and Shokoufandeh 2017, and augments the data structure with a flow distance grid calculated directly from the …

An Interoperable Workflow-Based Framework For The Automation Of Building Intelligent Process Control Systems, Josep Pascual Pañach, Miquel Àngel Cugueró Escofet, Miquel Sànchez Marrè, Pere Aguiló Martos

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One of the major problems to design and implement a control/supervision system for a process lies in the need to establish an ad-hoc system for each process installation. On the other side, an open challenge related to the deployment of Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSSs) is the interoperability of the different methods used, in order to allow interaction and reuse of different data mining methods and the use of methods based on a model or an expert. Thus, this paper proposes the use of visual workflows, to enable the automation of the design task and the implementation of Intelligent Process …

Microservices For The Stream Visual Assessment Protocol (Svap), Jack R. Carlson, Casey Sheley, Rumpal Sidhu, Shaun Case, Olaf David

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Stream Visual Assessment Protocol (SVAP) provides an initial assessment of the overall condition of wade-able streams, their riparian zones, and instream habitats. Field conservationists use the tool when providing technical assistance to land owners to improve stream conditions, sustainable use, and value of their property. SVAP does not require extensive training in biology, geomorphology, or hydrology, and represents a first step towards more detailed analysis and recommendations as needed. The protocol was developed in 1999 by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Aquatic Assessment Workgroup, following two years of field study and validation involving 182 stream reaches in …

Integrating Socio-Environmental Models: Vegetation, Agriculture, And Landform Dynamics, Miguel Acevedo, William Boyd, Hessam Sarjoughian, Isaac Ullah, Michael Barton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

How did landscapes evolve as agriculture emerged thousands of year ago? How do we ensure sustainable food production and still maintain environmental quality? Integrated socio-environmental models help provide answers to these two seemingly distant, yet related questions. For practical purposes, in this paper we use the terms socio-ecological and socio-environmental systems, with acronym SES as synonyms. The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics (MedLand) project aims to develop experimental SES models made possible by recent advances in computation while exercising interdisciplinary collaboration. In this paper, we exemplify one aspect of this integration by discussing the development of a vegetation model, which at the …

Open Models For Dammed Rivers: A New England Case Study For Balancing Social-Ecological Sustainability Of Riverine Ecosystem Services, Sam Roy, Emi Uchida, Simone Souza, Ben Blachly, Emma Fox, Kevin Gardner, Arthur Gold, Jessica Jansujwicz, Sharon Klein, Bridie Mcgreavy, Weiwei Mo, Sean Smith, Emily Vogler, Karen Wilson, Joseph Zydlewski, David Hart

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Dam removal is a cornerstone of environmental restoration practice in the United States. One positive outcome of dam removal is restored access to historic habitat for sea-run fish, providing a crucial gain in ecosystem resilience. But dams also provide stakeholders with valuable ecosystem services, such as municipal water storage, recreational use of lakes and rivers, property values, hydroelectricity generation, landscape nutrient and sediment flux, cultural attachments to dams, and many other river-based ecosystem services. Uncertain socio-ecological and economic outcomes can arise without carefully considering the basin scale trade-offs of dam removal.

Using a combined modeling approach at watershed scales, we …

How Many Cats (Or “Cat-Equivalents”) Does It Take To Cause An Extinction? And How Simple Can You Make A Model Before It Becomes Useless?, Kate O'Brien, Michaela Plein, Matthew Holden, Nigel Bean, Christopher Baker, Eve Mcdonald-Madden

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Managers make decisions on how to protect and restore environmental systems, along with associated ecosystem services. Ideally, these decisions are made with the support of predictive models, built on a sound understanding of how the system works, validated with data and accompanied by credible estimates of uncertainty. However, in many cases data are scarce or non-existent, understanding of key processes is limited, and disturbances such as land-use change or invasive species may be fundamentally altering the way the system functions. If there are insufficient data available for meaningful parameterization or validation, and no prospect of more data becoming available, how …

Integrated Modelling Approach To Assess Woody Biomass Supply, Demand And Environmental Impacts Of Forest Management In The Eu, Sarah Mubareka, Giorgio Vacchiano, Roberto Pilli, Maarten Hilferink, Giulia Fiorese, Ragnar Jonsson, Pablo Ruiz Castello, Wouter Nijs, Valerio Avitabile, Jasper Van Vliet, Andrea Camia

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Forests are at the intersection of European policies on climate, energy and environmental protection and will contribute significantly to the shift of the European economy towards a greater and more sustainable use of renewable resources. Knowledge of the current and future provision and use of woody biomass is necessary to support multiple policies, provide insight into how forest ecosystems and their services will respond to increasing material and energy demand, climate change, and land use competition. The main data source for forest biomass data in the European Union are National Forest Inventories (NFIs). These are carried out based on country-specific …

Eliciting Stakeholder Representations Of A Marine Socio-Ecosystem: Participatory Modelling Of Shellfish Aquaculture In The Normand-Breton Gulf, France, Sophie Gourguet, Léa Monnier, Jeffrey M. Dambacher, Martin P. Marzloff, Cédric Bacher, Pierre Boudry, Philippe Cugier, Nicolas Desroy, Aline Gangnery, Sophie Girard, Patrick Le Mao, Jose A. Pérez, Olivier Thébaud

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In data-poor situations, qualitative modelling (Puccia and Levins’ “loop analysis”) combined with participatory involvement of stakeholders is well suited to holistically represent the complexity of socio-ecosystems and to assess system stability and its responses to long-term perturbations. This paper presents the results of a qualitative modelling project that involved an interdisciplinary team across natural sciences, social sciences, and modelling. The project focused on analysing the sustainability of a socio-ecosystem with an intense activity of shellfish aquaculture in the Normand-Breton gulf, France. Our primary objective was to involve stakeholders into the participatory development of qualitative models describing the structure and functioning …

An Overview Of Rainfall-Runoff Model Types, Jan Sitterson, Chris Knightes, Rajbir Parmar, Kurt Wolfe, Brian Avant, Muluken Muche

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper aims to inform the audience of the strengths and weaknesses of various rainfall-runoff models. Runoff plays an important role in the hydrological cycle by returning excess precipitation to the oceans and controlling how much water flows into water systems. Water resource managers use runoff data from models to help understand, control, and monitor the quality and quantity of water resources. Access to runoff data can be time consuming and restrictive. The goal of the USEPA’s Hydrologic Micro Service (HMS) project is to develop a collection of interoperable water quantity and quality modeling components that leverage existing internet-based data …

Effects Of Water Conservation And Reduced Imports On Urban Landscapes In Los Angeles, Erik Porse

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Los Angeles faces a future of reduced imported water availability. As a result, many local agencies are promoting water conservation, enhancing local water supply sources, and funding “cash for grass” programs. Such residential water conservation efforts could have long-term effects on the existing urban tree canopy, while choices for resulting landscapes after replacing lawns can vary widely. Using a model of integrated water management (Artes) that simulates water supplies, conservation, and local reliance opportunities across hundreds of water agencies, we assessed how maximizing local water supply could affect water demand expectations. Results demonstrate that indoor water demands (residential, commercial, and …

Sustainable Agricultural Intensification Through Crop Water And Nutrient Management Optimization, A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Ian Kropp, Kalyanmoy Deb, Mohammad Abouali, Proteek C. Roy, Gerrit Hoogenboom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To meet the needs of the Earth’s growing population, three key challenges need to be addressed in the 21^st century; namely food, energy, and water security. The demands of the growing population require that each of these sectors increase their output. However, given the interconnected nature of these sectors, sustainability is required to insure that the global demands for all three are still met while preserving the environment. In this study, optimization was used to determine when irrigation and fertilizer should be applied to maximize crop yield while minimizing environmental impacts at the farm level. To do this a …

Socio-Ecological Modeling For Guiding Water Management: Application Of The Envision Framework For The Rio Grande/Bravo Basin, Sophie Plassin, Jennifer Koch, Kellie B. Vaché, Stephanie Paladino, Kyndra Hanson, Jack R. Friedman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Surface water resources in semi-arid watersheds are extremely vulnerable to changing climate conditions and demographic growth. The vulnerability is highest in basins with high stresses on water resources such as the transboundary Rio Grande/Bravo basin (RGB), shared by the United States and Mexico. Designing sustainable management responses for such systems calls for a better understanding of complex human-environment interactions and the exploration of alternative futures. We present a spatio-temporal simulation model that has been developed for the whole RGB basin to capture and explore the interplay between water and land resources management strategies and vegetation dynamics. We used the ENVISION …

Modelling Microbial Water Quality Across Multiple Temporal Scales, Andrew R. Slaughter, Sukhmani K. Mantel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Microbial water quality can have profound effects on human health. Microbial water quality modelling can be a useful tool for water quality management in catchments. Since flow drives water quality, water quality models rely on estimates of flow from hydrological and systems models. However, these different hydrological and systems models operate over different time steps, which may be mismatched to those of flow processes affecting microbial water quality. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of microbial water quality modelling across different time steps, thereby assessing which flow time steps are suitable for driving microbial water …

An Experience With Data Analysis And Modeling Of Desert Ecosystems, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova, Christopher J. Lortie, Stanley Ukah

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Deserts are characterized by extreme environmental conditions which require specialized adaptive mechanisms for both plants and animals to survive. Some of these important ecological mechanisms utilize indirect interactions involving non-consumptive synergy between species at distant trophic levels. For example, desert shrubs are known to mitigate extreme climate conditions and create a more favourable microclimate, thus providing thermal shelter for lizards. It is observed that changing climate may lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events in deserts, such as prolonged drought and shorter intensive rainfall. It is, therefore, important to predict possible ecosystem dynamics under different scenarios of climatic …

Patterns Of Persistent, Bioaccumulative, And Toxic Pollutant Co-Contamination In Marine And Freshwater Fish, Kimberly Bourne, Mark E. Borsuk, Celia Chen, Amanda Curtis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The risk incurred from exposure to multiple contaminants in fish tissue is largely unknown due to a lack of understanding of toxicokinetic relationships and of the combinations of contaminants to which people are exposed. This knowledge gap could be detrimental to human health through possibly inadequate contaminant-specific fish advisories. The co-occurrence of various persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic pollutants (PBTs) has not been systematically explored. In this study, we utilize the wealth of fish tissue data from available EPA datasets to quantitatively characterize the patterns of contaminant co-occurrence using a new approach called generalized joint attribute modeling (GJAM). This approach allows …

An Integrated Modeling Approach Coupling Stakeholders’ Values And Policy Trade-Offs In Oklahoma, Usa, Gehendra Kharel Dr., Ronald Miller Dr., Chris Zou Dr., Jennifer Koch Dr., Tracy Boyer Dr., Heather Mccarthy Dr., Naci Dilekli Dr., Raymond Huhnke Dr.

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Oklahoma watersheds and urban areas are subject to increased water shortages, woody plant encroachment, and other socio-ecological issues. To investigate these issues in an integrated fashion, we are constructing an agent-based model using an integrated modeling platform, ‘ENVISION’. Three modeled areas represent the diversity within Oklahoma: Oklahoma City (urban), Kiamichi watershed (timber, reservoir), and Cimarron watershed (agriculture, grassland). Oklahoma City (OKC) stakeholders are concerned with the ‘greenness’ of the urban environment, and the water required to maintain it in the context of future urban growth and climate change, and the OKC model estimates urban greenness and the related water demand. …

Generalisable Methods For Vegetation Classification Using Computer-Generated Pseudoquadrats, Liam Butler, Roy A. Sanderson Dr

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Many countries have developed phytosociological classifications of their vegetation to describe semi-natural and natural vegetation communities. Can methods be developed for any classification system to allocate newly surveyed quadrats, i.e. data gathered from new field surveys, into the most likely vegetation community? Algorithms or software already exist to allocate quadrats for some classifications, but these are not generalisable to any system. We test the robustness of several generalisable approaches to allocate quadrats to an existing phytosociological classification, using the British National Vegetation Classification (NVC) as a case study. Vegetation from 167 quadrats was classified using two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN) …

Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps To Model The Impacts Of Autonomous Vehicle Technology On Communities: An Illustration Of The Process, Pei Zhang, Antonie Jetter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), as a future-study and fuzzy-front management research tool, could help the decision-makers to get the future scenarios on decisions of new technology application in real life, with a direct capture of stakeholders' cognitions on the decision-making subjective. Currently, the Southwest Corridor Plan (connecting with Southwest Portland, from Tualatin and Sherwood to Tigard) for the city of Portland, is one of the on-going urban planning projects which is focusing on improve the on-ground passenger transit system of the City. Regarding this real-life project, the opinions from stakeholders on future scenarios on potential usage of autonomous vehicles (AV) …

Towards Model Integration Via Abductive Workflow Composition And Multi-Method Scalable Model Execution, Rafael Ferreira Da Silva, Daniel Garijo, Scott Peckham, Yolanda Gil, Ewa Deelman, Varun Ratnakar

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Workflows provide a solid foundation to address model integration challenges. Integrated models may be simply chained, or they may need to run in an interleaved (tightly-coupled) fashion. Data exchange formats may significantly differ (e.g., scale), and data transformations may be required to convert available data into the formats required by the models. In this work, we are creating the MINT (Modeling INTegration) environment for workflow composition and execution by extending the well-established workflow composition (WINGS) and execution (Pegasus) systems with a framework for model coupling for execution interleaving (EMELI/BMI). WINGS provides a semantic workflow system that can represent and propagate …

Neural Network For Tuning-Friendly Automatic Outlier Detection In Water Quality Time Series, Cyril Garneau, Peter A. Vanrolleghem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

With the increasing presence of online sensors to monitor environmental systems, automatic outlier detection procedures are necessary to tackle the huge amount of data generated. Cleaned time series can afterwards be filtered, screened for fault detection, used for process control or decision support.

Outliers from time series exhibiting stable signals can easily be removed by tracking the local mean and standard deviation and accepting all data within, e.g., from the mean. However, environmental time series often exhibit large discontinuities or highly unstable behaviour, which requires more advanced outlier detection methods. Unfortunately, these advanced methods require complex parameterization that depends on …

Automated Data Discovery, Retrieval, Manipulation, And Publication Using Python, Tethys, And Hydroshare, Scott D. Christensen, Dharhas Pothina, Aaron Valoroso, Kevin Winters

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Most environmental modelling efforts have significant data needs, which can present technical challenges and distract from the primary modelling objectives. These challenges include finding relevant data sources, retrieving large amounts of data, performing data transformations, and finally storing and sharing results. This presentation describes the tools being used and developed at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) to address these challenges. These tools include (1) Quest, an extensible Python library for searching various local and public data providers, automating downloading, performing various data filters (or transformations), and finally, publishing the data to data repositories, (2) Data Depot, …

Simulating Reactive Nitrogen In Canadian Farmland From 1981 To 2011, Jingyi Yang Dr, Craig F. Drury Dr, Xueming Yang Dr

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A reactive nitrogen (N) model has been developed to estimate reactive N for Canadian agricultural land at a soil landscape of Canada polygon 1:1M scale. The N inputs include fertilizer N, biological N fixation, N deposition and N mineralization from previous organic residues. The N output contains crop N removal for food and feed, N losses from gaseous forms including N₂O and NH₃, surface runoff and leaching of NO₃^-, and residual inorganic N left in the soil. Manure N was considered as part of the internal N cycle. The inputs of the model …

Dune Habitat Trends Of An Endangered Species, Penstemon Haydenii Wats. (Blowout Penstemon), In Carbon County, Wyoming, Bonnie Heidel, Samuel E. Cox, Frank C. Blomquist

Western North American Naturalist

Penstemon haydenii Wats. (blowout penstemon, blowout beardtongue) is an early-succession plant species that is adapted to the dynamic habitats found in sand dunes. Following widespread habitat loss, the species was thought to be extinct from 1940 until it was rediscovered in 1968. It was listed as endangered in 1987 under the Endangered Species Act. At the time, it was only known from the Nebraska Sandhills, where its low numbers were ascribed to habitat loss. It was first discovered in Wyoming in 1996, in the Ferris Dunes of Carbon County. To develop a proxy for historic Wyoming habitat trends and a …

Density And Pond Habitat Affect Survival And Growth Rates In Larval Columbia Spotted Frogs (Rana Luteiventris), Sidney A. Patchett, Allystair D. Jones, Mark C. Belk

Western North American Naturalist

Juvenile survival and growth are critical determinants of evolutionary fitness in most organisms. However, specific effects of population density and habitat quality on survival and growth of larvae vary widely among amphibian species. The Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), like many amphibians in the arid western United States, is a species of conservation concern, especially in the southern part of its range. To determine how density and habitat affect vital rates of Columbia spotted frog during the larval period, we performed a controlled experiment. Larval growth and survival in the Columbia spotted frog are determined by density of …

Decision Support For Control Of Salt And Methylmercury Export From Managed Seasonal Wetlands, Nigel Wt Quinn Phd, P.E., D.Wre, Stefanie Helmrich, Joel Herr, Katie Van Werkhoven

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Monomethylmercury (MeHg) is a toxic mercuric compound that, even at very low concentrations, can lead to mercury (Hg) bioaccumulation within the aquatic food web and cause high levels of MeHg contamination in fish and humans. The behavior of Hg in the environment depends on numerous chemical, physical, and biological factors that vary in time and space driven by biogeochemical and hydrodynamic processes. Managed seasonal wetlands are a major source of both MeHg and salinity to the Sacramento – San Joaquin Delta which discharges into San Francisco Bay and is the source of drinking water for 2/3 of California’s citizens. Whereas …

Daycent Assessment Under Multiple Treatment-Measurement Scenarios In Bioenergy Sorghum Production, Yong Wang, Fugen Dou, Stephen Del Grosso, Keith Paustian, Robert Anex, Frank Hons

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Intermediate complexity biogeochemical models are usually composed of several sub-models which are interrelated. Model assessment using a single treatment or measurement may not be adequate to fully examine the correctness of model mechanisms and has the risk of over-parameterization. In order to evaluate the simultaneous performance of all sub-models in DAYCENT, the model was parameterized using field measurements of soil temperature and water, aboveground biomass carbon (C), soil organic C (SOC), and carbon dioxide (CO₂),and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from an 8-year field trial of bioenergy (biomass) sorghum with treatments of residue return, nitrogen (N) fertilization, …

A Metric For Evaluating The Ability Of The Rzwqm Model To Project The Impact Of Climate Change, Robert Anex, Lei Gu, Matthew Helmers

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Making projections with models is always difficult and climate change poses a particularly challenging problem for biophysical models which tend to be over-parameterized and have poor predictive power when extrapolations are beyond the range of the calibration. It is common practice to assume that if a calibrated model replicates observations reasonably well, predictions under other conditions will also be reasonably good. Unfortunately, this assumption is not always correct, as we show for prediction of nitrate loss from a tile-drained, corn-soybean experiment in Northern Iowa.

The RZWQM is a biophysical process model that simulates plant growth and movement of water and …