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Putting The Decision In Decision Support, David Swayne Jul 2002

Putting The Decision In Decision Support, David Swayne

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We consider a novel approach to developing multi-objective environmental decision support applications. We propose using causal probabilistic networks (CPN) to subsume one or more engineering process models, together with CPN implementations of specific decisions and utility measures. So-called decision nodes are set to prior probability assignments of 1/N (where the particular decision has N possible values) and utility nodes are based upon the standard lottery principle give a value for that decision choice. The decisions can be so-called "one-shot" or sequential (time-dependent or at least seasonal). In the latter case maximization of the utility is calculated by gaming to optimize …

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Modelling Intervention Strategies For Cooperative Environmental Management, Jim Doran Jul 2002

Modelling Intervention Strategies For Cooperative Environmental Management, Jim Doran

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Central to sustainable natural resource management is the achievement of cooperation and collective action amongst stakeholders with initially conflicting short and long-term goals. It is argued that automatically generated agent-based computer models may be used to explore the ways in which external intervention can bring about effective stakeholder cooperation in environmental resource management contexts. The potential advantages of the agent-based modelling approach in this context include objectivity, and the discovery of currently unrecognised intervention strategies of practical value. An experimental procedure is proposed, and, by reference to a detailed design for a class of agent-based models, the technical obstacles that …

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Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks In Black-Box And Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, Elena Toth, Armando Brath Jul 2002

Flood Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks In Black-Box And Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, Elena Toth, Armando Brath

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper presents a comparison of lumped runoff modelling approaches, aimed at the realtime forecasting of flood events, based on or integrating Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). ANNs are used in two ways: (a) as black-box type runoff simulation models or (b) for the real-time improvement of the discharge forecasts issued by a conceptual-type rainfall-runoff model. As far as the coupling of ANNs with a conceptual model is concerned, feed forward neural networks are used as univariate time-series analysis techniques both for forecasting the future rainfall values to be provided as input to the hydrological model and for updating the river …

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Modular Ecosystem Modeling, Alexey Voinov, Carl Fitz, Thomas Maxwell, Roelof Boumans, Robert Costanza Jul 2002

Modular Ecosystem Modeling, Alexey Voinov, Carl Fitz, Thomas Maxwell, Roelof Boumans, Robert Costanza

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The modular ecosystem modeling approach was used to create a flexible landscape model structure that is easy to modify and extend for particular case studies and applications. The Library of Hydro Ecological Modules (LHEM; http://iee.umces.edu/LHEM) includes modules that describe hydrologic processes, nutrient cycling, vegetation growth, decomposition, etc., both locally and spatially. LHEM is implemented within the framework of the Spatial Modeling Environment (SME; http://iee.umces.edu/SME3) that integrates modules and places local simulation models into a spatial context. The LHEM was used to build the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) as well as models of several subwatersheds of the Patuxent. Local ecosystem dynamics …

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Integrative Environmental Prediction Using Bayesian Networks: A Synthesis Of Models Describing Estuarine Eutrophication, M. E. Borsuk, C.A. Stow, K. H. Reckhow Jul 2002

Integrative Environmental Prediction Using Bayesian Networks: A Synthesis Of Models Describing Estuarine Eutrophication, M. E. Borsuk, C.A. Stow, K. H. Reckhow

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The symptoms of coastal and estuarine eutrophication are the result of a number of interacting processes operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Thus, models developed to appropriately represent each of these processes are not easily combined into a single predictive model. We suggest that Bayesian networks provide a possible solution to this problem. The graphical structure explicitly represents cause-and-effect assumptions between system variables that may be obscured under other approaches. These assumptions allow the complex causal chain linking management actions to ecological consequences to be factored into an articulated sequence of conditional relationships. Each of these relationships can then …

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Model Integration For Assessing Future Hydroclimate Impacts On Water Resources, Agricultural Economic Sustainability And Environmental Quality, N. W. T. Quinn, L. D. Brekke, K. L. Bashford, N. L. Miller, H. Hidalgo, P. Raju, J. A. Dracup Jul 2002

Model Integration For Assessing Future Hydroclimate Impacts On Water Resources, Agricultural Economic Sustainability And Environmental Quality, N. W. T. Quinn, L. D. Brekke, K. L. Bashford, N. L. Miller, H. Hidalgo, P. Raju, J. A. Dracup

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Changeprovides compelling arguments for serious consideration of actions and adaptive measures by countries aroundthe world to better manage impacts on water resources, agricultural economic sustainability and environmentalquality. National resource planning at this scale requires integrated impact analysis toolboxes to allow linkageand integration of hydroclimate models, linked surface and groundwater hydrologic models, economic andenvironmental impact models as well as techniques for social impact assessment. The rationale for selection ofthe simulation models is described as well as the challenges faced in linking the component models of theimpacts assessment toolbox. Results …

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Probabilistic Finite Automata And Randomness In Nature: A New Approach In The Modelling And Prediction Of Climatic Parameters, L. Mora-López, R. Morales-Bueno, M. Sidrach-De-Cardona, F. Triguero Jul 2002

Probabilistic Finite Automata And Randomness In Nature: A New Approach In The Modelling And Prediction Of Climatic Parameters, L. Mora-López, R. Morales-Bueno, M. Sidrach-De-Cardona, F. Triguero

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A model to characterize and predict continuous time series from machine learning techniques isproposed. This model includes the following three steps: dynamic discretization of continuous values,construction of probabilistic finite automata and prediction of new series with randomness. The first problemin most models from machine learning is that they are developed for discrete values; however, mostphenomena in nature are continuous. To convert these continuous values into discrete values a dynamicdiscretization method has been used. With the obtained discrete series, we have built probabilistic finiteautomata which include all the representative information which the series contain. The use of probabilisticfinite automata allows us …

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A Multiobjective Approach For Solid Waste Management, R. Minciardi, Massimo Paolucci, M. Robba, Roberto Sacile Jul 2002

A Multiobjective Approach For Solid Waste Management, R. Minciardi, Massimo Paolucci, M. Robba, Roberto Sacile

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Nowadays, solid waste management is a problem of major relevance for all societies. Finding acceptable strategies to cope with such a problem is becoming a quite hard task, owing to the increasing awareness of environmental issues by population and authorities. In general, this awareness has led to the development of enhanced pollution control technologies and to a more rigorous legislation on waste handling and disposal, to minimize the related environmental impact. Solid waste management is a problem that is even more felt at the municipal level, where decision makers should plan an effective strategy, taking simultaneously into account conflicting objectives …

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Ecological Modelling Using The Spreadsheet Model Tabsim, L. Matejicek Jul 2002

Ecological Modelling Using The Spreadsheet Model Tabsim, L. Matejicek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation of ecological systems represents more sophisticated analysis, which extends possibilities of standard research methods. In contrast to majority of computer languages available for calculation of dynamic models, spreadsheet models (TabSim-Table Simulation) offer to spend more effort on investigating the features of a dynamic system, rather than writing a program code. The program structures are replaced by table objects, which represent basic dynamic relations (integrations and time delays) and static relations (described by built-in functions and user functions). In addition to calculation of dynamic and static relations, the wide range of built-in graphs and graphic objects can be used for …

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A Distributed Simulation System For Irrigation Planning At The Catchment Scale, C. Gandolfi, A. Facchi, B. Ortuani, D. Maggi Jul 2002

A Distributed Simulation System For Irrigation Planning At The Catchment Scale, C. Gandolfi, A. Facchi, B. Ortuani, D. Maggi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper presents the prototype of a simulation system which reproduces all the hydrological processes relevant in alluvial irrigated plains. It allows the evaluation of the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as the simulation of the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources. The simulation package is based on the coupling of two hydrological models - a submodel of the unsaturated soil layer and a sub-model of the aquifer system- with a Geographical Information System (GIS). The prototype has been applied to a large irrigation district, of approximately 700 km2, located in the densely-settled Lombardia …

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Parsimonious Catchment And River Flow Modelling, R. H. Khatibi, R. J. Moore, Martijn J. Booij, D. Cadman, G. Boyce Jul 2002

Parsimonious Catchment And River Flow Modelling, R. H. Khatibi, R. J. Moore, Martijn J. Booij, D. Cadman, G. Boyce

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

It is increasingly the case that models are being developed as “evolving” products rather than one-off application tools, such that auditable modelling versus ad hoc treatment of models becomes a pivotal issue. Auditable modelling is particularly vital to “parsimonious modelling” aimed at meeting specific modelling requirements. This paper outlines various contributory factors and aims to seed proactively a research topic by inextricably linking value/risk management to parsimonious modelling. Value management in modelling may be implemented in terms of incorporating “enough detail” into a model so that the synergy among the constituent units of the model captures that of the real …

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The Particle Deposition Flux Monitoring And Analysis Approach Of The Supreme Project, G. Clai, F. Monforti, C. Catelli, G. Zanini, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, M. Bazzoli, A. Manganelli, J. Jacucci Jul 2002

The Particle Deposition Flux Monitoring And Analysis Approach Of The Supreme Project, G. Clai, F. Monforti, C. Catelli, G. Zanini, R. Bellasio, R. Bianconi, M. Bazzoli, A. Manganelli, J. Jacucci

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

SUPREME, a very articulated project still in progress financed by the Italian Universities andResearch Ministry, concerns an integrated decision support system finalized to catastrophic events forecastand to prevent and mitigate flooding and air pollution effects on monumental stones. This paper focuses onthe aerosols deposition tool. The new box model AERBOX simulates the whole life cycle of aerosols andthe consequent urban pollution impact due to the flux of particulate matter deposition. Applied on themonumental area of Florence basin, AERBOX models the industrial and mobile sources of the 50 km x 50km surrounding area induced pollution, and estimates the aerosol deposition on …

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Solving The Inverse Problem In Stochastic Groundwater Modelling With Artificial Neural Networks, C. Rajanayaka, S. Samarasinghe, D. Kulasiri Jul 2002

Solving The Inverse Problem In Stochastic Groundwater Modelling With Artificial Neural Networks, C. Rajanayaka, S. Samarasinghe, D. Kulasiri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper, prediction capability of a hybrid Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) was investigatedto solve the groundwater inverse problem. Initially, a Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was developedand it was found that network produced better results when the target range of the parameters is smaller.Therefore, a Self-Organising Network (SON) was used to identify the objective subrange of the parameterand then the MLP model was employed to obtain final estimates. The data for the ANN was obtained from anumerical model that was utilised to simulate the solute transport in saturated groundwater flow. The forwardproblem of the numerical model was solved to …

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Data-Based Mechanistic And Top-Down Modelling, Peter C. Young Jul 2002

Data-Based Mechanistic And Top-Down Modelling, Peter C. Young

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper discusses the problems associated with environmental modelling and the need to develop simple, ‘top-down’, stochastic models that match the information content of the data. It introduces the concept of Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling and contrasts its inductive approach with the hypotheticodeductive approaches that dominate most environmental modelling research at the present time. The major methodological procedures utilized in DBM modelling are outlined and two practical examples illustrate how it has been applied in a hydrological and water quality context. The use of this same methodology as a basis for the evaluation and simplification of large deterministic simulation models …

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A Dss For The Evaluation Of The Consequences Of Natural Hazards On A Complex Territorial System, Paolo Fiorucci, F. Gaetani, R. Minciardi, E. Trasforini Jul 2002

A Dss For The Evaluation Of The Consequences Of Natural Hazards On A Complex Territorial System, Paolo Fiorucci, F. Gaetani, R. Minciardi, E. Trasforini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) able to assist urban planners in natural hazard mitigation in preventive phase is proposed. In order to define the structure of this DSS, a methodology based on influence graphs is defined, in which nodes represent entities that are important for their social, environmental and social functions on the territory, and links represent the influence between the entities. The level of functionality of each entity is influenced by both its physical integrity and the functionality of the related entities. As not all the entities influence the considered one in the same way, different …

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A Grid-Generation Based Method For Information Fusion, Tian Xiang Yue, Ji Yuan Liu, Ying An Wang Jul 2002

A Grid-Generation Based Method For Information Fusion, Tian Xiang Yue, Ji Yuan Liu, Ying An Wang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Relative studies on multi-scale information fusion, multi-source information fusion and multi-sensor information fusion are reviewed. On the basis of analyzing problems in existing methods of information fusion, a grid-generation model for simulating population density of China is proposed as a case of multi-source information fusion. By fusing remotely sensed data, meteorological data, soil data and statistical data, spatial distribution of population density in China is successfully simulated, in which grid generation process is described in detail. In addition, the basic idea of a grid-generation model as a case of multi-scale information fusion is discussed. The models for multi-source information fusion …

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Long Run Technical Change In An Energy-Environmenteconomy (E3) Model For An Ia System, J. H. Köhler Jul 2002

Long Run Technical Change In An Energy-Environmenteconomy (E3) Model For An Ia System, J. H. Köhler

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A world macroeconomic model is being developed to investigate policies for climate change and sustainabledevelopment, as a module of an IAM structure for the UK Tyndall Centre. This requires an economic modelfor the next 50-100 years, to show how changes in industrial structure and technology change GHGemissions. There is no suitable and generally accepted theory of long term technical change/development(Kondratiev waves) for incorporation in a macroeconomic modelling structure. However, there is now a gooddescriptive theory, which is intended to provide an economic history perspective of long term change. This isFreeman and Louçν (2001). The objective of our model is to …

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A Generic Framework For The Identification Of Parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff Models, T. Wagener, H. S. Wheater Jul 2002

A Generic Framework For The Identification Of Parsimonious Rainfall-Runoff Models, T. Wagener, H. S. Wheater

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A task which is often central to hydrological modelling is the identification of an appropriate model structure and a suitable parameter set for a specific case, i.e. a given set of modelling objectives, catchment characteristics and data. However, this identification process is difficult and will often result in a range of possible models, i.e. different parameter sets within a certain model structure, or different model structures. Two generic rainfall-runoff modelling and Monte Carlo analysis toolboxes have been developed to allow for the implementation and subsequent comparison of spatially lumped, metric and parametric model components in order to identify the model(s) …

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Model Coupling And Integration Via Xml In Them3 Simulation, Andreas Hoheisel Jul 2002

Model Coupling And Integration Via Xml In Them3 Simulation, Andreas Hoheisel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Complex real-world systems are currently developing into a decisive instrument for IT-supported problem solving for a great number of problems posed by science, economy and society. Like in many environmental simulation systems the Man Model Measurement (M3) Simulation (http://mmm.first.fraunhofer.de) contains numerous single scientifically founded models coupled to each other to reflect the complexity of our world. The unpredictable human factor is considered by actively involving real people into the simulation by a Virtual Reality framework. The evolution and enhancement of the M3 system will be provided by an open software API. This paper will focus on the control and the …

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Appropriate Hydrological Modelling Of Climate Change Impacts On River Flooding, Martijn J. Booij Jul 2002

Appropriate Hydrological Modelling Of Climate Change Impacts On River Flooding, Martijn J. Booij

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should be used at which spatial and temporal scales. A procedure for determining an appropriate model has been developed and applied to the above mentioned specific problem for the Meuse river in France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The model appropriateness procedure consists of three steps. First, the dominant processes and associated key variables are identified. …

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Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley Jul 2002

Modelling The Impact Of Water Reuse Strategies On Hydrologic Flows In The Blackwater And Chelmer Catchments, Uk., P. Jeffrey, T. Oxley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Wastewater reclamation and reuse at various scales is an important resource management toolin many regions of Europe and is coming under increasing scrutiny in the UK. However, the impact of reusestrategies on hydrologic flows, particularly during dry periods, is poorly understood and yet crucial to thedevelopment of sustainable resource management policies. In this paper we summarise the integrated modelsused for the simulation of such strategies (river flows, soil hydrology, aquifer dynamics and waterdistribution) and describe how water demand ‘profiles’ can be incorporated into a distribution matrix tosimulate recycling scenarios and demographic changes, and how both inter-catchment transfers and waterimportation schemes …

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Linearisation Of Highly Resolved Substance Transport Models By Temporal Aggregation Of Model Outputs, A. Forsman, A. Grimvall Jul 2002

Linearisation Of Highly Resolved Substance Transport Models By Temporal Aggregation Of Model Outputs, A. Forsman, A. Grimvall

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Process-oriented models that involve strongly non-linear responses and are driven by highlyresolved meteorological inputs are often used to predict substance transport over fairly long periods of time.Therefore, it is of great interest to ascertain whether the non-linear structure is also essential for predictingtemporally aggregated model outputs. Here, ordinary least squares regression was employed to identify linearrelationships between model outputs and inputs expressed on different temporal scales. Examination of twosimple theoretical models showed that aggregation of outputs and inputs improved the linearity of models,provided the models included memory effects. This was confirmed in the analysis of the soil-water andnitrogen transport model …

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Regional Integrated Management Information System, M. A. Cameron, B. F. W. Croke, K. L. Taylor, Glen Walker, B. Watson Jul 2002

Regional Integrated Management Information System, M. A. Cameron, B. F. W. Croke, K. L. Taylor, Glen Walker, B. Watson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Landholders, departmental agencies and other stakeholders have long been involved in knowledge building of the physical elements affecting land use. Often, however, this has been without any accompanying information on social and economic impacts, or systems for exploring catchment trade-off decisions. RIMIS is the concept of a regional management system designed for landscape managers. It has a web-compatible interface allowing multiple users to access distributed data sources (including spatial databases) and run distributed bio-physical and socio-economic models to explore catchment management problems i.e. ask ‘what if?’ questions. Its models bring together science, sociology and economics, to explore interactions and show …

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Credal Classification For Mining Environmental Data, M. Zaffalon Jul 2002

Credal Classification For Mining Environmental Data, M. Zaffalon

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Classifiers that aim at doing reliable predictions should rely on carefully elicited prior knowledge. Often this is not available so they should be able to start learning from data in condition of prior ignorance. This paper shows empirically, on an agricultural data set, that established methods of classification do not always adhere to this principle. Common ways to represent prior ignorance are shown to have an overwhelming weight compared to the information in the data, producing overconfident predictions. This point is crucial for problems, such as environmental ones, where prior knowledge is often scarce and even the data may not …

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Desyre – Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites: Objectives And Structure, A. Critto, S. Giove, N. Nadal, M. Samiolo, C. Carlon, S. Silvoni, S. Foramiti, Antonio Marcomini Jul 2002

Desyre – Decision Support System For Rehabilitation Of Contaminated Sites: Objectives And Structure, A. Critto, S. Giove, N. Nadal, M. Samiolo, C. Carlon, S. Silvoni, S. Foramiti, Antonio Marcomini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The rehabilitation of contaminated sites is a complex process encompassing technological, environmental, socio-economic aspects. These aspects show close spatial and temporal inter-relations. Moreover, mega-sites (hundreds of hectares wide) require properly designed Decision Support Systems (DSS). In this work, a DEcision Support sYstem for the REqualification of contaminated sites (DESYRE) is proposed for the identification of the most effective rehabilitation interventions. The DSS is based on a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework and integrates environmental and technological databases, risk assessment models, and multi criteria procedures. It is composed of five modules: (1) characterisation, (2) risk, (3) socio-economical and (4) technological analysis, …

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The Streames Project: Linking Heuristic And Empirical Knowledge Into An Expert System To Assess Stream Managers, Joaquim Comas, Esther Llorens, Manel Poch, G. Markakis, T. Battin, S. Gafny, E. Maneux, E. Martí, M. Morais, M. A. Puig, M. Pusch, J. L. Riera, F. Sabater, A. G. Solimini, P. Vervier Jul 2002

The Streames Project: Linking Heuristic And Empirical Knowledge Into An Expert System To Assess Stream Managers, Joaquim Comas, Esther Llorens, Manel Poch, G. Markakis, T. Battin, S. Gafny, E. Maneux, E. Martí, M. Morais, M. A. Puig, M. Pusch, J. L. Riera, F. Sabater, A. G. Solimini, P. Vervier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The increase in stream nutrient loads from anthropogenic sources has become a serious problem, especially in developed regions. Humans affect streams by modifying the landscape in ways that increase the transport of nutrients to surface waters, by directly dumping urban or industrial sewage into the stream, or by modifying streams in ways that reduce their ability to respond to increased nutrient loads. In Mediterranean regions these problems are compounded by the scarcity of water. The decision-making processes involved in water quality management require extensive human expertise or extensive computation with large data sets. In this sense, the STREAMES project aims …

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Modelling The Impact Of Environmental Policies On Minerals Investment, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles Jul 2002

Modelling The Impact Of Environmental Policies On Minerals Investment, Bernadette O’Regan, Richard Moles

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes an application of the tools and techniques of the system dynamics method to the complex problem of understanding those factors which impact the flow of international mineral investment funds. The theoretical underpinning of the paper is a simulation model developed in Powersim in the system dynamics tradition. The model, comprising over 180 variables, provides a means of examining the effects of varied environmental, fiscal and corporate policies on the flow of investment funds and mineral resources between 4 simulated mining firms and 4 competing countries. It attempts to expose – to policy makers – the complexity of …

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Environmental Foresight And Structural Change, M. B. Beck Jul 2002

Environmental Foresight And Structural Change, M. B. Beck

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said [Brooks, 1986], are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behavior of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. How indeed should we design our models to generate environmental foresight, to detect, in particular, threats to our environment lying “just beyond the horizon”? In facing this prospect of potentially profound dislocations in behavior, the problem is that the number of state variables in the model, whether they interact, how they interact, and the form of their interactions, may be evolving over time. What may …

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Nonparametric Test For Translog Specification Of Production Function In Japanese Manufacturing Industry, Y. Konishi, Y. Nishiyama Jul 2002

Nonparametric Test For Translog Specification Of Production Function In Japanese Manufacturing Industry, Y. Konishi, Y. Nishiyama

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Beginning with a series of pioneering work by Cobb and Douglas, estimation of productionfunction has been one of the main issues in empirical economics and econometrics in various aspects. Thefunctional form they used is called Cobb-Douglas production function. It is later generalized to so-calledtranslog production function which has a more flexible form to describe the relation between the output andinput levels. It is also analytically convenient for obtaining factor demand functions or cost function so that ithas been widely used in both macroeconomic and microeconomic empirical studies. However, it is wellknown that statistical analysis leads to incorrect conclusions in general …

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Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck Jul 2002

Integrating Stakeholder Imagination With Scientific Theory: A Case Study Of Lake Lanier, Usa, O. O. Osidele, M. B. Beck

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a framework for computational analysis of reachable futures, centred on the analysisof uncertainty, in which stakeholder participation is integral to generating environmental foresight. In ourcase study, we examine the long-term ecological behaviour of Lake Lanier, Georgia, south-eastern USA. Weelicit stakeholders' fears and desires for the future state of the reservoir during a foresight workshop session,from which we encode long-term behaviour definitions (scenarios) for the analysis. A generalised ecologicalmodel provides the mechanism for propagating a set of uncertain input factors – namely, process parameters,initial conditions, and forcing functions – into the future. We employ three sampling-based methods foridentifying and …

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