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A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier Jul 2004

A Spatially-Distributed Conceptual Model For Reactive Transport Of Phosphorus From Diffuse Sources: An Object-Oriented Approach, B. Koo, S. Dunn, R. Ferrier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents CAMEL, a spatially-distributed conceptual model for simulating reactive transport of phosphorus from diffuse sources at the catchment scale. A catchment is represented in the model using a network of grid cells and each grid cell is comprised of various conceptual storages of water, sediment and phosphorus. To allow for reactive transport processes of phosphorus between grid cells, two cascade routing schemes are used for groundwater and channel water flows, respectively. The model has a modular, object-oriented structure so that it can be easily modified or extended and, furthermore, it can even provide a library of hydrological and …

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Diva: An Iterative Method For Building Modular Integrated Models, J. Hinkel Jul 2004

Diva: An Iterative Method For Building Modular Integrated Models, J. Hinkel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledgefrom the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatibleterminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the startof the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient.The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answercan be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisationand integration. Along those lines of thought …

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Air Quality Modelling In Latvia, I. Steinberga, L. Lizuma Jul 2004

Air Quality Modelling In Latvia, I. Steinberga, L. Lizuma

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

As a potential member country to the European Union (EU), Latvia has harmonized the nationalenvironmental legislation with the EU air quality (AQ) legislation. The AQ management system in thecountry is being developed in accordance with the requirements laid down in the appropriate EU directivesthus introducing advanced management tools based on the AQ modelling. According to the Latvianlegislation, the simple empirical model, “Ecolog” (Russia), should not be used for air quality modelling. Thenew tool for pollution dispersion assessment and management, EnviMan, OPSIS AB Company, Sweden wasobtained by the Latvian Hydrometeorological Agency in 1998. Initially it was used only for processing andstorage …

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A Fast Evolutionary-Based Meta-Modelling Approach For The Calibration Of A Rainfall-Runoff Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Dragan Savic, Yang Liu, Henrik Madsen Jul 2004

A Fast Evolutionary-Based Meta-Modelling Approach For The Calibration Of A Rainfall-Runoff Model, Soon-Thiam Khu, Dragan Savic, Yang Liu, Henrik Madsen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Population-based search methods such as evolutionary algorithm, shuffled complex algorithm, simulated annealing and ant colony search are increasing used as automatic calibration methods for a wide range of water and environmental simulation models. However, despite the advances in computer power, it may still be impractical to rely exclusively on computationally expensive (time consuming) simulation for many real world complex problems. This paper proposed the use of meta-models to replace numerical simulation models for the purpose of calibration. Meta-models are essentially “model of the model”. The meta-model used in this study is the artificial neural network and, when coupled with genetic …

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Infiltration Of Stormwater In A Rain Garden: Richards Equation Numerical Model And Field Experiment, Alejandro R. Dussaillant Jul 2004

Infiltration Of Stormwater In A Rain Garden: Richards Equation Numerical Model And Field Experiment, Alejandro R. Dussaillant

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Traditional stormwater management does not mitigate groundwater depletion resulting from groundwater pumping and reduction in recharge. Infiltration practices, such as rain gardens, offer a potentially effective approach for addressing groundwater depletion. A rain garden is a landscaped garden in a shallow depression that receives the stormwater from nearby impervious surfaces, focusing recharge. We have developed a numerical model that can be applied in rain garden design and evaluation. Water flow through the rain garden soil is modeled over three layers- a root zone, a middle storage layer of high conductivity, and a subsoil lower layer. To continuously simulate recharge, runoff …

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Enhanced Presentation And Analysis Of Uncertain Lca Results With Principal Component Analysis, P. J. Notten, J. G. Petrie Jul 2004

Enhanced Presentation And Analysis Of Uncertain Lca Results With Principal Component Analysis, P. J. Notten, J. G. Petrie

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A significant challenge of an uncertainty assessment is the presentation of the results, since aquantitative uncertainty analysis dramatically increases the already considerable amount of data that needs tobe communicated in an LCA study. This paper investigates three graphical options to interpret outputsamples from quantitative uncertainty analyses. The output samples are from case studies within the coalfiredpower generation sector, and include an assessment of empirical uncertainty from a stochasticuncertainty assessment and an assessment of uncertainty in decision variables from a parametric sensitivityanalysis. Two commonly used representations of probabilistic samples are demonstrated, namely “box andwhisker” plots and plots of the cumulative probability …

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Eliciting Sources Of Uncertainty In Ecological Simulation Models, V. Brilhante, J. L. Campos Dos Santos Jul 2004

Eliciting Sources Of Uncertainty In Ecological Simulation Models, V. Brilhante, J. L. Campos Dos Santos

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Uncertainty is an intrinsic feature of complex ecological models. Given that it is not possible to rid the modelsfrom uncertainty, we are left with taking notice of it for consideration in model-based decision making. Traditionalecological modelling methods and tools do not support explicit accounts of model uncertainty. Thiswork gives a contribution towards making known, or bringing to the surface, sources of uncertainty that areembedded in ecological models. The sources of uncertainty are related to the models’ supporting data andequations. A metadata standard is used to specify data-related sources of uncertainty, such as creator and coverage.In the technique developed, models are …

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Heuristics To Characterise Human Behaviour In Agent Based Models, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Eva Ebenhöh Jul 2004

Heuristics To Characterise Human Behaviour In Agent Based Models, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Eva Ebenhöh

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Human behaviour is one of the key factors to understand the causes for common pool resourceproblems and to develop policies to promote more sustainable resource management regimes. Agent basedmodels can help to investigate the role of important processes in this respect such as factors determining thedegree of trust and cooperation in a group. We have chosen a pragmatic approach to represent humanbehaviour by assuming that agents can be characterised by a set of attributes and their behaviour can bedescribed by a set of simple decision heuristics. Individual agents differ in their importance of attributes (e.g.fairness, cooperativeness, trust), in their rules …

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An Approach For Calculating The Turbulent Transfer Coefficient Inside The Sparse Tall Vegetation, Dragutin T. Mihailović, M. Budincevic, B. Lalic, D. Kapor Jul 2004

An Approach For Calculating The Turbulent Transfer Coefficient Inside The Sparse Tall Vegetation, Dragutin T. Mihailović, M. Budincevic, B. Lalic, D. Kapor

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The sparse tall grass significantly affects the heat and moisture exchange in the lower atmosphere through the turbulent transfer coefficient inside its environment. Common approaches for calculation of turbulent transfer coefficient inside the tall grass environment are based on the assumption that it depends either on wind speed or mixing length inside the canopy. In this paper we suggested a new approach for calculating the turbulent transfer coefficient inside the sparse tall vegetation. In that sense we first derived an equation for the turbulent transfer coefficient inside the sparse tall grass using the “sandwich” approach for representation of vegetation, then …

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On The Design Of Robust Emission Strategies To Stabilze The Concentration Of Carbon In The Atmosphere, A. Kryazhimskiy, V. Maksimov, S. Korobochkina Jul 2004

On The Design Of Robust Emission Strategies To Stabilze The Concentration Of Carbon In The Atmosphere, A. Kryazhimskiy, V. Maksimov, S. Korobochkina

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the context of global warming, the problem of stabilization of the concentration of carbon in theatmosphere is widely discussed. Serious difficulties in the design of reliable stabilization strategies arise dueto the uncertainty of the underlying physical model. In this paper, we suggest a pattern to construct modelrobustfeedback carbon emission strategies that stabilize the atmospheric carbon concentration at a prescribetarget value irrespective of a particular admissible carbon cycle model governing the “real” dynamics. Specificqualitative features of the carbon cycle dynamics, including automatic stabilization under vanishing inputs areemployed.

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Sustainable Marine Resource Management: Lessons From Viability Analysis, Jürgen Kropp, K. Eisenack, J. Scheffran Jul 2004

Sustainable Marine Resource Management: Lessons From Viability Analysis, Jürgen Kropp, K. Eisenack, J. Scheffran

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Marine natural resources are under pressure worldwide. Management and surveillance systems are often inappropriate to guarantee a sustainable resource utilization since the knowledge on fisheries and/or stocks is limited. Additionally, institutional failures, e.g. unsuitable regulatory policies, have accelerated resource exploitation in several cases. Modelling is often considered as a very effective tool for studying the behaviour of complex systems, but a variety of difficulties arise if one has to deal with uncertain knowledge or inhomogeneous data of different quality. In this paper we present a method that is capable both for (i) integration of sparse or limited knowledge from different …

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Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung Jul 2004

Implications Of Complexity And Uncertainty For Integrated Modelling And Impact Assessment In River Basins, Valentina Krysanova, Fred Hattermann, Frank Wechsung

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper focuses on implications of uncertainty in climate change impact assessment at the river basin and regional scales. The study was performed using the process-based ecohydrological spatially distributed model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The model integrates hydrological processes, vegetation/crop growth, erosion and nutrient dynamics in river basins. It was developed from the SWAT and MATSALU models for climate and land use change impact assessment. The study area is the German part of the Elbe River basin (about 100.000 km2). It is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting …

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Tools To Think With? Towards Understanding The Use And Impact Of Model-Based Support Tools, Brian Mcintosh, R. A. F. Seaton, P. Jeffrey Jul 2004

Tools To Think With? Towards Understanding The Use And Impact Of Model-Based Support Tools, Brian Mcintosh, R. A. F. Seaton, P. Jeffrey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Formal models are an established technology for research in the environmental sciences. For several years now there has been an effort to enhance the re-usability of computer models for research purposes and to transfer the perceived benefits of formal modelling to environmental planning and policymaking. These efforts have resulted in the creation of a variety of support tools including DSS and modelling frameworks. However, there are a number of issues which may pose barriers to the uptake and use of such tools. We contend that new technologies and new techniques for exploring and manipulating them have to be translated into …

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From Narrative To Number: A Role For Quantitative Models In Scenario Analysis, Eric Kemp-Benedict Jul 2004

From Narrative To Number: A Role For Quantitative Models In Scenario Analysis, Eric Kemp-Benedict

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There is growing concern that the predictive mathematical models conventionally used in policy analysis are too limiting to serve as tools in futures studies, because they cannot reproduce the sudden changes seen in real societies. The field of complex systems has successfully produced similar changes in simplified model systems, but has been less successful in practical futures work. Some recent scenario exercises (such as the IPCC scenarios, UNEP’s GEO-3 scenarios, the work of the Global Scenario Group and the European VISIONS project) have addressed this issue by combining wide-ranging narratives with quantitative models, demonstrating that a synthesis between qualitative and …

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Circadian Patterns Recognition In Ecosystems By Wavelet Filtering And Fuzzy Clustering, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Simone Arrigucci Jul 2004

Circadian Patterns Recognition In Ecosystems By Wavelet Filtering And Fuzzy Clustering, Stefano Marsili-Libelli, Simone Arrigucci

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents a method for extracting representative patterns from a set of data representing circadian cycles. The analysis is based on a combination of wavelet filtering and fuzzy clustering. The data are first processed with a discrete wavelet decomposition in order to filter out the noise and isolate the relevant circadian cycle. It is shown that the second level decomposition yields the best cycle approximation, filtering out measurement noise and other artefacts and preserving the main cycle features. From the filtered data the following discriminating features are extracted: minimum and maximum daily values, and the slope of the line …

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Sensitivity Analysis Of A Network-Based, Catchment- Scalewater-Quality Model, J. P. Norton, Lachlan T. H. Newham, F. T. Andrews Jul 2004

Sensitivity Analysis Of A Network-Based, Catchment- Scalewater-Quality Model, J. P. Norton, Lachlan T. H. Newham, F. T. Andrews

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Careful consideration of the uncertainties and sensitivities associated with model outputs is essential when critical decisions are made on the basis of such results. Consideration of uncertainty is particularly important in the context of natural resource management, where models are often used to tackle complex and conflicting issues across multiple scales, as is the case in evaluating management options to reduce surface water pollution. This paper describes an analysis of uncertainty in the catchment-scale integrated hydrologic, economic, stream sediment and nutrient export model known as CatchMODS. The paper briefly describes the linked components of CatchMODS and its application in the …

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Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten Jul 2004

Simulating Human Behaviour: The Invisible Choreography Of Self–Referential Systems, David Batten

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Challenges arise when it comes to capturing complex patterns of human behaviour in agent-based simulations. For example, human beings are not limited to one identity, to local levels of awareness or to acting on predetermined rules. Seemingly immune from these difficulties are some self-referential problems – situations where agents’ forecasts act to create the world they are trying to forecast. The emergent complexity in these systems results more from ways in which agents interact and react rather than from their individual idiosyncrasies. A well-known example is the Bar problem, whose collective regularities are relatively insensitive to the vagaries of individuals. …

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Linking Narrative Storylines And Quantitative Models To Combat Desertification In The Guadalentín, Spain, Kasper Kok, Hedwig Van Delden Jul 2004

Linking Narrative Storylines And Quantitative Models To Combat Desertification In The Guadalentín, Spain, Kasper Kok, Hedwig Van Delden

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Desertification in Spain is a largely society-driven process, which can be effectively managed only through an understanding of ecological, socio-cultural and economic driving forces. This calls for a more active role of decision makers and other stakeholders. We present a promising approach, involving stakeholders in the scenario development process and linking these narrative storylines with an integrated quantitative model. Within the framework of a larger EC-financed project, dealing with desertification in the Mediterranean region, multiscale scenarios were developed for Europe, the Northern Mediterranean and four local areas. In the same project a Policy Support System (PSS) was developed. The main …

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Pub And Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling: The Importance Of Parsimonious Continuous-Time Models, Peter C. Young, Renata J. Romanowicz Jul 2004

Pub And Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling: The Importance Of Parsimonious Continuous-Time Models, Peter C. Young, Renata J. Romanowicz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The problem of Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is intimately linked with the concept of regionalisation; namely the transfer of information from one catchment that is gauged to another that is not. But such regionalisation exercises can be dangerous and should be attempted only with great care. The present paper addresses what the authors believe to be one essential aspect of regionalisation: namely, the importance of considering only ‘top-down’ models that are parametrically efficient (parsimonious) and fully ‘identifiable’ from the available catchment data. We argue further that many mechanistic model parameters are more naturally defined in the context of continuous-time, …

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The Coexistence Of Plankton Species With Various Nutrient Conditions: A Lattice Simulation Model, T. Miyazaki, T. Togashi, T. Suzuki, T. Hashimoto, K. Tainaka, J. Yoshimura Jul 2004

The Coexistence Of Plankton Species With Various Nutrient Conditions: A Lattice Simulation Model, T. Miyazaki, T. Togashi, T. Suzuki, T. Hashimoto, K. Tainaka, J. Yoshimura

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In aquatic ecosystems, species diversity is known to be higher in poor nutrient conditions. Theenrichment of nutrition often induces the loss of biodiversity. This phenomenon is called the paradox ofenrichment, since higher nutrient levels can support more species. Furthermore, the species diversity isusually high in most natural communities of phytoplankton. However, the niches of planktonic algae seemalmost identical in apparently homogeneous, aquatic environments. Therefore, the high species diversity ofphytoplankton is incomprehensible and called the paradox of plankton. Mathematical studies show that localcoexistence of competitive species is rare. In a competitive community, the most superior species eliminatesall the inferior species in …

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Addressing Sustainability, Hiv-Aids, And Water Resource Questions In Botswana, M. Hellmuth, J. Sendzimir, Yates David, Strzepek Kenneth, Sanderson Warren Jul 2004

Addressing Sustainability, Hiv-Aids, And Water Resource Questions In Botswana, M. Hellmuth, J. Sendzimir, Yates David, Strzepek Kenneth, Sanderson Warren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

An integrated population, economic, and water resource model was developed to address sustainable development questions for Botswana. Traditionally, water resources planning models have considered the implications of different assumptions of population and economic growth on the sustainability of existing water resources supply; however, this model extends that capability to consider feedbacks from one model component to another. The water model uses a physically based hydrologic rainfall-runoff model, with surface and groundwater components, to produce monthly runoff and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale. Surface runoff and recharge are the inflows into surface and groundwater water reservoirs. The demographic sub model …

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Appropriate Modelling In Dsss For River Basin Management, Yueping Xu Jul 2004

Appropriate Modelling In Dsss For River Basin Management, Yueping Xu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There is increasing interest in the development of decision support systems (DSSs) for river basin management. Moreover, new ideas and techniques such as sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders have stimulated their development. A DSS often encompasses a number of sub-models, such as models for flood risk, ecology, tourism, recreation and navigation. These models are fundamental in supporting the whole decision-making process. However, often complicated and sophisticated models are used which are difficult to understand and operate for decision-makers. Moreover, these models may be not necessary for some specific-purpose DSSs, such as those …

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Concepts Of Decision Support For River Rehabilitation, Peter Reichert, M. E. Borsuk, M. Hostmann, S. Schweizer, C. Spörri, K. Tockner, Bernhard Truffer Jul 2004

Concepts Of Decision Support For River Rehabilitation, Peter Reichert, M. E. Borsuk, M. Hostmann, S. Schweizer, C. Spörri, K. Tockner, Bernhard Truffer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

River rehabilitation decisions, like other decisions in environmental management, are often taken by authorities without sufficient transparency about how different goals, outcomes, and concerns were considered during the decision making process. This can lead to lack of acceptance or even opposition by stakeholders. In this paper, a concept is outlined for the use of techniques of decision analysis to structure scientist and stakeholder involvement in river rehabilitation decisions. The main elements of this structure are (i) an objectives hierarchy that facilitates explicit discussion of goals, (ii) an integrative probability network model for the prediction of the consequences of rehabilitation alternatives, …

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Regionalisation Of Rainfall-Runoff Models, B. F. W. Croke, J. P. Norton Jul 2004

Regionalisation Of Rainfall-Runoff Models, B. F. W. Croke, J. P. Norton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A new approach to regionalisation for prediction of flow characteristics in ungauged catchments is presented. If flows in ungauged catchments are to be predicted using calibrated rainfall-runoff models, regional relationships between the parameters of such models and catchment attributes must be determined. This is only possible with parsimonious models (fewer than about 7 parameters), and even then there are considerable uncertainties in the prediction of ungauged catchment response, due to the accumulation of uncertainties in the regionalization process for estimating parameter values. The uncertainties in the catchment attributes and climate data used for the ungauged catchment combine with the uncertainty …

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Towards An Environmental Dss Based On Spatio-Temporal Markov Chain Approximation, Gerard Balent, Marc Deconchat, Sylvie Ladet, Roger Martin-Clouaire, Regis Sabbadin Jul 2004

Towards An Environmental Dss Based On Spatio-Temporal Markov Chain Approximation, Gerard Balent, Marc Deconchat, Sylvie Ladet, Roger Martin-Clouaire, Regis Sabbadin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The aim of this paper is to provide a mathematical model for assessing the influence of forest fragmentation on the dynamics of animal biodiversity in a changing landscape. The model is based on a stochastic, spatially explicit population dynamics model which takes both temporal and spatial dynamics of biological processes into account. Unfortunately, this model is not tractable, so we will use a Monte Carlo simulation method in order to approximate the multidimensional random variables involved. The main strength of our approach is its ability to model generic biological and socio-economic dynamic processes, which are both explicitly spatial and stochastic. …

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Dynamic Element Matching Techniques For Delta-Sigma Adcs With Large Internal Quantizers, Brent C. Nordick Jul 2004

Dynamic Element Matching Techniques For Delta-Sigma Adcs With Large Internal Quantizers, Brent C. Nordick

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents two methods that enable high internal quantizer resolution in delta-sigma analog-to-digital converters. Increasing the quantizer resolution in a delta-sigma modulator can increase SNR, improve stability and reduce integrator power consumption. However, each added bit of quantizer resolution also causes an exponential increase in the power dissipation, required area and complexity of the dynamic element matching (DEM) circuit required to attenuate digital-to-analog converter (DAC) mismatch errors. One way to overcome these drawbacks is to segment the feedback signal, creating a "coarse" signal and a "fine" signal. This reduces the DEM circuit complexity, power dissipation, and size. However, it …

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Choosing A Starting Configuration For Particle Swarm Optimization, Mark Richards, Dan A. Ventura Jul 2004

Choosing A Starting Configuration For Particle Swarm Optimization, Mark Richards, Dan A. Ventura

Faculty Publications

The performance of Particle Swarm Optimization can be improved by strategically selecting the starting positions of the particles. This work suggests the use of generators from centroidal Voronoi tessellations as the starting points for the swarm. The performance of swarms initialized with this method is compared with the standard PSO algorithm on several standard test functions. Results suggest that CVT initialization improves PSO performance in high-dimensional spaces.

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Incremental Policy Learning: An Equilibrium Selection Algorithm For Reinforcement Learning Agents With Common Interests, Nancy Fulda, Dan A. Ventura Jul 2004

Incremental Policy Learning: An Equilibrium Selection Algorithm For Reinforcement Learning Agents With Common Interests, Nancy Fulda, Dan A. Ventura

Faculty Publications

We present an equilibrium selection algorithm for reinforcement learning agents that incrementally adjusts the probability of executing each action based on the desirability of the outcome obtained in the last time step. The algorithm assumes that at least one coordination equilibrium exists and requires that the agents have a heuristic for determining whether or not the equilibrium was obtained. In deterministic environments with one or more strict coordination equilibria, the algorithm will learn to play an optimal equilibrium as long as the heuristic is accurate. Empirical data demonstrate that the algorithm is also effective in stochastic environments and is able …

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Assessing The Quality Of Seawinds Rain Measurements, David G. Long, David W. Draper Jul 2004

Assessing The Quality Of Seawinds Rain Measurements, David G. Long, David W. Draper

Faculty Publications

While SeaWinds was designed to measure ocean winds, it can also measure rain over the ocean. SeaWinds on QuikSCAT active measurements of integrated columnar rain rate obtained via simultaneous wind/rain retrieval are evaluated via Monte Carlo simulation and the Cramer-Rao lower bound on estimate accuracy. Although sufficiently accurate in many conditions, the simultaneous wind/rain retrieval method used with SeaWinds on QuikSCAT data is ill-conditioned for certain wind directions and measurement geometries, sometimes yielding spurious rain rates in zero-rain conditions. To assess the validity of SeaWinds-derived rain rates, a simple empirically based rain thresholding scheme is presented, derived from simulated data. …

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Task-Focused Summarization Of Email, Eric K. Ringger, Richard Campbell, Simon Corston-Oliver, Michael Gamon Jul 2004

Task-Focused Summarization Of Email, Eric K. Ringger, Richard Campbell, Simon Corston-Oliver, Michael Gamon

Faculty Publications

We describe SmartMail, a prototype system for automatically identifying action items (tasks) in email messages. SmartMail presents the user with a task-focused summary of a message. The summary consists of a list of action items extracted from the message. The user can add these action items to their “to do” list.

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