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Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson Jul 2010

Lessons Learnt On Requirement Analyses To Establish New Model Systems: Prerequisites To Assure Model Use Towards Policy Outcome, Stefan Sieber, Karen Tscherning, Klaus Müller, P. J. F. M. Verweij, Torbjörn Jansson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the applied non-standardised Model Requirement Analysis (MRA). Using the presented methods and results of the MRA, we discuss the suitability for appropriate ways to improve applied methods using the example of the Sustainability Impact Assessment Tools (SIAT). Special focus is given to the prerequisites of project design to assure model use towards model outcome. The applied methods of the MRA consist of evolutionary prototyping, which provides a way to structure the subsequent group discussions with end-users. The results first summarise the conducted interactions with potential end-users and evaluate the usefulness of conducting …

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Integronsters' And The Special Role Of Data, Alexey Voinov Jul 2010

Integronsters' And The Special Role Of Data, Alexey Voinov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many cases model integration treats models as software components only, ignoring the fluid relationship between models and reality, the evolving nature of models and their constant modification and re-calibration. As a result, with integrated models we find increased complexity, where changes that used to impact only relatively contained models of subsystems, now propagate throughout the whole integrated system. This makes it harder to keep the overall complexity under control and, in a way, defeats the purpose of modularity, when efficiency is supposed to be gained from independent development of modules. Treating models only as software in solving the integration …

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Modelling The Spread Of Influenza-Like Illnesses In An Urban Environment, R. Neighbour, M. Borkowski, S. Mukhi1, M. R. Friesen, R. D. Mcleod Jul 2010

Modelling The Spread Of Influenza-Like Illnesses In An Urban Environment, R. Neighbour, M. Borkowski, S. Mukhi1, M. R. Friesen, R. D. Mcleod

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This work extends ongoing development of a framework for modelling the spread of contact-transmission infectious diseases within urban environments, where modelling is augmented with surveillance data and diseases of interest are primarily influenza-like illnesses (ILI). The data sources include socio-ecological elements, in which physical environments (community, neighbourhood) coupled with census data allow inferences relative to targeted populations. The framework is built upon Agent Based Modeling (ABM), with emphasis on urban scale modelling integrated with institutional models of hospital emergency departments. The scenarios presented here include modeling an outbreak of a pH1N1, surges at Hospital emergency departments, demographic data integration, and …

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Modelling Human Health By Levels Of Biological Organization, Wilfred R. Cuff, Clifford Clark, Paulette Richard, Venkata R S K Duvvuri Jul 2010

Modelling Human Health By Levels Of Biological Organization, Wilfred R. Cuff, Clifford Clark, Paulette Richard, Venkata R S K Duvvuri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The hierarchy of levels in the organization of matter, or the “hierarchy of life”, is a fundamentalconcept in biology, and biologists are used to thinking about their work asbeing at a particular level. Yet medicine, in both research and application, operatessomewhat independently of this concept, working almost exclusively at levels at or belowthe individual. Through the relatively-recent expansion of epidemiology, medicinedoes reach up to the level of the population - but medicine at higher levels of biologicalorganization remains under-developed. In this paper we review the biological idea ofhierarchy of life and explore what medical research and practice might look like …

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The Application Of A Validated Hydrodynamic Model To Improve The Water Management Of An Egyptian Shallow Water Coastal Lake, M. A. Bek, I. S. Lowndes, D. M. Hargreaves Jul 2010

The Application Of A Validated Hydrodynamic Model To Improve The Water Management Of An Egyptian Shallow Water Coastal Lake, M. A. Bek, I. S. Lowndes, D. M. Hargreaves

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper presents the preliminary results of the application of the ocean model (FVCOM)to replicate the hydrodynamic flows experienced within Lake El-Manzala, Egypt. Theconstruction of this model is used to characterize the ecosystem of this shallow brackishlake and assess a range of sustainable water management strategies. Lake El-Manzala is thelargest of the Egyptian shallow coastal lakes on the fringe of the Mediterranean Sea. Thelake currently supports 30% of the fresh water fish farm production of Egypt. In recentyears the aquatic health of the lake has significantly deteriorated due to an increase in thecontamination of the lake by polluted inflows and …

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What Can We Learn From Systems Based Approaches: From Systems Biology To Earth Systems Science?, C. J. A. Macleod Jul 2010

What Can We Learn From Systems Based Approaches: From Systems Biology To Earth Systems Science?, C. J. A. Macleod

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Systems based approaches have been developed and applied in a broad range ofdisciplines. These cover a wide range of processes, structures and scales. Ludwig vonBertalanffy is often credited with establishing and developing ‘general systems theory’.The ecosystem based approach to ecology developed by the Odum brothers (EugenePleasants and Howard Thomas) instigated approaches to understanding ecological systemsthat are still advancing within the frameworks of ecosystem services and ecologicalthermodynamics. West Churchman and Russel Ackoff were early pioneers in the field ofoperations research following on from techniques developed during the Second WorldWar. Jay Forrester was also influenced by his work on feedback systems during …

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Distributed Moments Of A Scalar Pdf, Partha Sarathi, Roi Gurka, Paul J. Sullivan, Gregory A. Kopp Jul 2010

Distributed Moments Of A Scalar Pdf, Partha Sarathi, Roi Gurka, Paul J. Sullivan, Gregory A. Kopp

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The evolution of concentration values in a turbulent flow is quantified by theprobability density function (PDF) of concentration or more simply by the expected massfraction function (EMF). It is convenient to use some lower-order moments to approximatethe PDF or EMF. In this paper a particularly simple representation of these moments isexplored. Concentration measurements using planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) aremade over the cross-section of a fluorescent plume emanating from a point source in a gridturbulenceflow in a water tunnel. It is observed that the distributed moments across theplume are determined from a ‘local’ concentration scale and the mean concentrationprofile. The …

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Study On Whole-Life Cycle Automotive Manufacturing Industry Co2 Emission Accounting Method And Application In Chongqing, Xianchun Tan, Zekun Mu, Sheng Wang, Hongxing Zhuang, Longxin Cheng, Yanyan Wang, Baihe Gu Jul 2010

Study On Whole-Life Cycle Automotive Manufacturing Industry Co2 Emission Accounting Method And Application In Chongqing, Xianchun Tan, Zekun Mu, Sheng Wang, Hongxing Zhuang, Longxin Cheng, Yanyan Wang, Baihe Gu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Low carbon economy has become a worldwide trend, many countries are seeking low carbon means to achieve environmentally- friendly economy growth. However, various Greenhouse gases species in different industries, as well as various detection technology development levels in different countries lead to different carbon emissions accounting results eventually. So the accurate micro-level accounting on carbon dioxide emission is difficult to achieve while in the mean time, it is the basis for subsequent scenario analysis，which plays a crucial role in carbon pricing and carbon credits market promotion. That’s why the regional carbon dioxide emission accounting is a hot issue in low-carbon …

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An Open-Source Model Platform For Water Management That Links Models To A Generic User-Interface And Data-Manager, Julien J. Harou, Didrik Pinte, Amaury Tilmant, David E. Rosenberg, David E. Rheinheimer, Kristiana Hansen, Patrick M. Reed, Arnaud Reynaud Jul 2010

An Open-Source Model Platform For Water Management That Links Models To A Generic User-Interface And Data-Manager, Julien J. Harou, Didrik Pinte, Amaury Tilmant, David E. Rosenberg, David E. Rheinheimer, Kristiana Hansen, Patrick M. Reed, Arnaud Reynaud

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water management models that lack a user interface, data management, reporting and visualization capabilities are less likely to make an impact on real world water systems. Model platforms can improve this situation; they allow researchers and model developers to link model codes to a generic user interface and data management system. We present an open-source model platform for network-based models called HydroPlatform. The platform links users and their data to water management models through generic import/export functions or custom add-ins. This paper focuses on export functionality, and specifically on a link to the Generalized Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). HydroPlatform is …

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Set-Membership Approach For Identification Of The Uncertainty In Power-Law Relationships: The Case Of Sediment Yield, Karel J. Keesman, Lachlan T. H. Newham, Tony Jakeman Jul 2010

Set-Membership Approach For Identification Of The Uncertainty In Power-Law Relationships: The Case Of Sediment Yield, Karel J. Keesman, Lachlan T. H. Newham, Tony Jakeman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Power laws are used to describe a large variety of natural and man-made phenomena. Consequently, they are used in a wide range of scientific research and management applications. In this paper, we focus on the identification of uncertainty bounds on a power law relationship from experimental data, using a bounded-error characterization. These bounds can subsequently be used as constraints in e.g. optimization and scenario studies. The basic so-called set-membership approach involves outlier identification and removal, feasible parameter set estimation, evaluation of the feasible model output set and tuning of the error bounds. As an example we examine scattered sediment yield …

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Multilinear Diffusion Analogy Model For Stage Hydrograph Routing, Muthiah Perumal, Tommaso Moramarco, Bhabagrahi Sahoo, Silvia Barbetta, F. Melone Jul 2010

Multilinear Diffusion Analogy Model For Stage Hydrograph Routing, Muthiah Perumal, Tommaso Moramarco, Bhabagrahi Sahoo, Silvia Barbetta, F. Melone

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A multilinear stage-hydrograph routing method using the diffusion analogy model as a sub-model is proposed in this study. The diffusion analogy model can be considered as the next level of approximation to the full Saint-Venant equations. The applicability of the method is tested by studying flood wave propagation in the 15 km Pierantonio-Ponte Felcino reach of the Tiber River in Central Italy. The results demonstrate the suitability of the diffusion analogy model as a sub-model for its use in the multilinear flood routing method for field applications.

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Empathy: A Unifying Approach To Address The Dilemma Of 'Environment Versus Economy', A. Guergachi, O. Ngenyama, V. Magness, J. Hakim Jul 2010

Empathy: A Unifying Approach To Address The Dilemma Of 'Environment Versus Economy', A. Guergachi, O. Ngenyama, V. Magness, J. Hakim

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

When environmentalists warned, back in the 1970s, against pesticides andfertilizers, the then United States Secretary of Agriculture retorted that “before we go backto organic agriculture, somebody is going to have to decide what 50 million people we aregoing to let starve”. This exchange is nothing but an illustration of the dilemmatic choicethat societies in general have been asked to make: “develop the economy” or “protect theenvironment”. This paper proposes an integrated framework to resolve the dilemma of'environment versus economy'. This framework unfolds the essential characteristics ofsustainable societies and outlines the mechanics that underlie sustainable development.Referred to as ‘General Theory of …

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A Study Of Variance Estimators For Material Sampling Using Computerized Models Of Contaminant Heterogeneity In Soil Stockpiles., B. Geelhoed, F. P. J. Lamé Jul 2010

A Study Of Variance Estimators For Material Sampling Using Computerized Models Of Contaminant Heterogeneity In Soil Stockpiles., B. Geelhoed, F. P. J. Lamé

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

During the sampling of contaminated soil, sampling errors are unavoidable becauseof the spatial heterogeneity of the contaminant distribution. The variance is a convenientindicator for the potential magnitude of these errors. Four variance estimators are constructedfor use in material sampling, all of which take account of the heterogeneity and the samplingdesign. Based on large scale three-dimensional computerized models of contaminantheterogeneity in soil stockpiles, these variance estimators are compared using a Monte Carlosimulation of different sampling designs. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) of each varianceestimator is used to assess (and compare) the performance of each variance estimator: the lowerthe mean square error, …

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Towards Model Component Reuse For The Design Of Simulation Models – A Case Study For Iczm, Jean-Luc De Kok, Guy Engelen, Joachim Maes Jul 2010

Towards Model Component Reuse For The Design Of Simulation Models – A Case Study For Iczm, Jean-Luc De Kok, Guy Engelen, Joachim Maes

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

By itself scientific specialization does not serve the needs for integrated analysis of environmental problems required to improve the linkage between science and management. Models are often very case dependent, and lack the flexibility for rapid adaptation to new or different management or policy issues. The goal of the EU-FP6 research program SPICOSA is to develop a Systems Approach Framework (SAF) for Integrated Coastal Zone management. The project uses a modeling platform based on the integration of the dynamic simulation software ExtendSim and GIS software PCRaster. The approach is supported by model libraries in which reusable Model Building Blocks (MBBs) …

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A Modelling Platform For Complex Socioecosystems: An Application To Freshwater Management In Coastal Zones, Johanna Ballé-Béganton, M. Lample, Cédric Bacher, A. Fiandrino, V. Guillard, T. Laugier, Rémi Mongruel, J. A. Pérez Agúndez Jul 2010

A Modelling Platform For Complex Socioecosystems: An Application To Freshwater Management In Coastal Zones, Johanna Ballé-Béganton, M. Lample, Cédric Bacher, A. Fiandrino, V. Guillard, T. Laugier, Rémi Mongruel, J. A. Pérez Agúndez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Providing deliberation support tools for freshwater management in coastal zones requires complex socio-ecosystem modelling in a joint effort from research scientists, software engineers and stakeholders. The SPICOSA System Approach Framework provides guidelines for the building of dynamic models for a better comprehension of the variety of processes and issues regarding coastal management. A modular platform was developed using the ExtendSim® software. We explore how the SPICOSA/Extend platform supports participatory modelling by offering the necessary tools for the integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and how the use of a common platform facilitates dialog between research scientists of varied backgrounds. Graphical tools developed …

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Modelling Urban Land Use Change Using Geographically Weighted Regression And The Implications For Sustainable Environmental Planning, Noresah Mohd Shariff, Sanjay Gairola, Anita Talib Jul 2010

Modelling Urban Land Use Change Using Geographically Weighted Regression And The Implications For Sustainable Environmental Planning, Noresah Mohd Shariff, Sanjay Gairola, Anita Talib

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this study we applied Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) approach to model urban landuse changes in Penang Island from 1990 to 2005, covering the period during which the Island has experiencedtremendous urban growth due to in migration from adjacent areas. Land use change has potential impacts on thephysical and social environment. We identified spatial variables describing environment, physical and socioeconomicfactors which are hypothesized to influence the change in the land use in the study area. An ordinaryleast squares regression (OLS) model is applied to the variables followed by a GWR model and the results arecompared. The results show that the …

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Fast Variable Selection For Extreme Values, A. Phatak, C. Chan, H. Kiiveri Jul 2010

Fast Variable Selection For Extreme Values, A. Phatak, C. Chan, H. Kiiveri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper, we outline and explore the use of RaVE, a sparse variable selectionmethod that can be used for selecting variables when modelling extreme values. We illustrate itsuse by modelling the location parameter of a series of length 49 of annual rainfall maxima at twostations in North-West Western Australia. The ensemble of potential predictors consists of 1980atmospheric variables. Preliminary results show that RaVE can produce parsimonious yet sensiblemodels. Future work will focus on devising criteria to select the best choice of hyperparametersand on methods to choose groups of spatially contiguous variables so as to aid interpretation.

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Impact Of Land-Use Changes On The Hydrological Processes In The Elbow River Watershed In Southern Alberta, G. N. Wijesekara, A. Gupta, C. Valeo, J. G. Hasbani, Danielle J. Marceau Jul 2010

Impact Of Land-Use Changes On The Hydrological Processes In The Elbow River Watershed In Southern Alberta, G. N. Wijesekara, A. Gupta, C. Valeo, J. G. Hasbani, Danielle J. Marceau

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Due to the rapid population growth and urbanization in the City of Calgary, the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta covering 1238 km2 has been subjected to considerable land-use changes over the last decade. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of land-use intensification simulated with a cellular automata (CA) model on the hydrological processes of the watershed using MIKE-SHE, a physically-based and distributed hydrological model. MIKE-SHE was calibrated for the period 1985-1990 and validated for the period 2000-2005. The calibration was achieved by comparing observed and simulated flow data. The CA model was calibrated using four …

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Renyi's-Entropy-Based Approach For Selecting The Significant Input Variables For The Ecological Data, Can-Tao Liu, Bao-Gang Hu Jul 2010

Renyi's-Entropy-Based Approach For Selecting The Significant Input Variables For The Ecological Data, Can-Tao Liu, Bao-Gang Hu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Recently, data-driven approaches including machine-learning (ML) techniqueshave played a key role in the research on ecological data and models. One of the mostimportant steps in the application of a ML technique is the selection of significant modelinput variables. Among ML methods, artificial neural networks and genetic algorithm arewidely used for the sake of the above aim; however entropy-based learning methods havenot been well adopted in the field of selecting the significant input variables for ecologicalmodel. In this paper, we utilize Renyi’s entropy to estimate mutual information, and thencompute maximum relevance and minimum redundancy of the input variables by themutual information …

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Modelling The Ecological Impact Of Discharged Urban Waters Upon Receiving Aquatic Ecosystems. A Tropical Lowland River Case Study: City Cali And The Cauca River In Colombia, Gonzalez J. Holguin, Peter L. M. Goethals Jul 2010

Modelling The Ecological Impact Of Discharged Urban Waters Upon Receiving Aquatic Ecosystems. A Tropical Lowland River Case Study: City Cali And The Cauca River In Colombia, Gonzalez J. Holguin, Peter L. M. Goethals

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Cauca river is one of most severe cases of pollution for domestic and industrial wastewater discharges in Colombia, principally when it crosses the industrial cities of Cali and Yumbo. The rapid urbanization and major economic development in the Cauca river´s geographical valley has led to dramatic degradation of the environment and increased health risks due to inefficient processing of the increased pollutant load effluents and solid wastes. The city of Cali which is the main urbanization center, with more than two million inhabitants and limitations of the treatment of its wastewaters, discharged in the year 2005, 75 tons of …

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An Interdisciplinary Framework For The Development And Analysis Of Crop Models, Sebastien Roux, Myriam Adam, Wery Jacques Jul 2010

An Interdisciplinary Framework For The Development And Analysis Of Crop Models, Sebastien Roux, Myriam Adam, Wery Jacques

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Development and use of crop models has become an interdisciplinary field with the increase on one hand of the biophysical knowledge and the development of numerous dedicated software platforms on the other hand. This trend calls for formalizing the integration of the disciplinary contributions of scientists having different expertises needed in crop modelling : agronomists, mathematicians, software scientists. We propose an interdisciplinary framework to : (1) describe the model with different expert domain knowledge, (2) identify bridges to help scientists of different domains to work together on the same model, (3) give a methodological basis (engine) for crop model studies. …

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Modeling Dynamical Temperature Influence On Tick Ixodes Scapularis Population, Xiaotian Wu, Venkata R S K Duvvuri, Jianhong Wu Jul 2010

Modeling Dynamical Temperature Influence On Tick Ixodes Scapularis Population, Xiaotian Wu, Venkata R S K Duvvuri, Jianhong Wu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lyme disease has been recognised as one of the emerging vector borne diseases in Canada. Ticks, Ixodes scapularis SAY, play a major role as vectors of Lyme disease causative agent Borrelia burgdorferi. Ticks become infected with Borrelia while feeding on the primary hosts (mice, squirrels, shrews, and other small vertebrates). Deers are primary source of nourishment for each gravid female I. scapularis and are fundamental to the tick establishment without infection. The life cycle of tick, I. scapularis, is very complex and takes nearly two years to reach adult stage from egg. Studies have shown that tick life cycle is …

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Agent Swarm Optimization: A Paradigm To Tackle Complex Problems. Application To Water Distribution System Design, Idel Montalvo, Joaquín Izquierdo, Silvia Schwarze, Rafael Pérez-García Jul 2010

Agent Swarm Optimization: A Paradigm To Tackle Complex Problems. Application To Water Distribution System Design, Idel Montalvo, Joaquín Izquierdo, Silvia Schwarze, Rafael Pérez-García

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agent Swarm Optimization (ASO) is a generalization of Particle SwarmOptimization (PSO) orientated towards distributed artificial intelligence, taking as a basethe concept of multi-agent systems. It is aimed at supporting decision-making processes bysolving either single or multi-objective optimization problems. ASO offers a commonframework for the plurality of co-existent population-based algorithms and other heuristics.A particle from a PSO swarm, an ant from an ACO (Ant Colony Optimization) system, anda chromosome from a GA (Genetic Algorithm) structure do exhibit different behaviour.Yet, they all share a common feature: each represents a potential solution for the problemto be solved. In a combined environment, a PSO …

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Predicting Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Concentrations In Soil And Water Samples, Geoffrey Holmes, D. Fletcher, P. Reutemann Jul 2010

Predicting Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Concentrations In Soil And Water Samples, Geoffrey Holmes, D. Fletcher, P. Reutemann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are compounds found in the environment that can be harmful to humans. They are typically formed due to incomplete combustion and as such remain after burning coal, oil, petrol, diesel, wood, household waste and so forth. Testing laboratories routinely screen soil and water samples taken from potentially contaminated sites for PAHs using Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). A GC-MS device produces a chromatogram which is processed by an analyst to determine the concentrations of PAH compounds of interest. In this paper we investigate the application of data mining techniques to PAH chromatograms in order to provide …

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Study On Whole-Life Cycle Automotive Manufacturing Industry Co2 Emission Accounting Method And Application In Chongqing, Xianchun Tan, Zekun Mu, Sheng Wang, Hongxing Zhuang, Longxin Cheng, Yanyan Wang, Baihe Gu Jul 2010

Study On Whole-Life Cycle Automotive Manufacturing Industry Co2 Emission Accounting Method And Application In Chongqing, Xianchun Tan, Zekun Mu, Sheng Wang, Hongxing Zhuang, Longxin Cheng, Yanyan Wang, Baihe Gu

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Low carbon economy has become a worldwide trend, many countries are seeking low carbon means to achieve environmentally- friendly economy growth. However, various Greenhouse gases species in different industries, as well as various detection technology development levels in different countries lead to different carbon emissions accounting results eventually. So the accurate micro-level accounting on carbon dioxide emission is difficult to achieve while in the mean time, it is the basis for subsequent scenario analysis，which plays a crucial role in carbon pricing and carbon credits market promotion. That’s why the regional carbon dioxide emission accounting is a hot issue in low-carbon …

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The Use Of Entropy As A Model Diagnostic In Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, I. G. Pechlivanidis, B. Jackson, H. Mcmillan Jul 2010

The Use Of Entropy As A Model Diagnostic In Rainfall-Runoff Modelling, I. G. Pechlivanidis, B. Jackson, H. Mcmillan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Recent papers have called for the development of robust model diagnostics (in addition to traditional “measures of fit”) that provide insights on where model structural components and/or data may be insufficient. The potential of entropy measures to provide these in hydrology has not been adequately explored. Further, flow duration (FD) curves provide a useful visual diagnostic of catchment response, but attempts to quantify the fit of modelled versus observed FD curves to date have relied on using time series measures of fit. We note that Shannon entropy of flow is strongly related to the FD relationship, so suggest it provides …

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Parameter Optimization And Bayesian Inference In An Estuarine Eutrophication Model Of Intermediate Complexity, P. Ding, C. E. S. Hoyle, M. E. Borsuk Jul 2010

Parameter Optimization And Bayesian Inference In An Estuarine Eutrophication Model Of Intermediate Complexity, P. Ding, C. E. S. Hoyle, M. E. Borsuk

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, has been experiencing severe consequences of eutrophication in recent years including excessive algal blooms, low levels of dissolved oxygen, declining shellfish populations, large fishkills, and outbreaks of toxic microorganisms. As in many other marine systems, nitrogen has been identified as the pollutant of concern in the estuary because it is believed to stimulate the excessive algal growth that is at the root of other ecological problems. A model incorporating the mechanisms of algal growth and nutrient consumption in the Neuse River Estuary is formulated mathematically and implemented in the computer software AQUASIM. Key model …

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Dss And Maf (Multi-Agencies Framework) For Sustainable Water Management, Amgad Elmahdi, Don Mcfarlane Jul 2010

Dss And Maf (Multi-Agencies Framework) For Sustainable Water Management, Amgad Elmahdi, Don Mcfarlane

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water problems throughout the world can be seen as an issue of management, not a crisis of water shortage. Equitable allocation of groundwater resources is a growing challenge due to the increasing demand for water and the competing values placed on its use. Sustainable management of water resources comes with compromises and trade-offs of the other sub-systems (environment, economic and social) and almost ignores other stakeholders’ objectives and benefits. The aim of this paper is to present and discuss the hypothesis that “through multi-agency framework with supporting tools, such as a decision support system (DSS), a comprehensive framework can promote …

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Coupling Hydrological Models And Wheather Forecast For Improved Real-Time Management Of Water Resources, A. Salvetti, F. Pianosi, E. Weber, R. Soncini Sessa Jul 2010

Coupling Hydrological Models And Wheather Forecast For Improved Real-Time Management Of Water Resources, A. Salvetti, F. Pianosi, E. Weber, R. Soncini Sessa

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The use of Stochastic Dynamic Programming for designing optimal regulation policiesfor water reservoirs networks is well established in the literature. However, the calculation of theoptimal solution for many real problems is prohibitively time-consuming and this has motivatedapproximations, particulary in the description of the reservoirs inflow process. Furthermore thevariability of climatic forcing and the continuous adaptation in the management of water resourcesrequired by economic iusses represent a challenge for developing adapting real-time optimizazionprocedures. In this paper a real time control approach is proposed and applied to the case study ofthe multiprupose regulated lake Lugano, Switzerland. The lake operation problem is first …

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Mathematical Modelling Of Large Forest Fires, Valeriy Perminov Jul 2010

Mathematical Modelling Of Large Forest Fires, Valeriy Perminov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper suggested in the context of the general mathematical model of forest fires gives a mathematical setting and method of numerical solution of a problem of a large forest fire initiation. The mathematical model a large forest fire is based on an analysis of known experimental data and using concept and methods from reactive media mechanics. The boundary-value problem is solved numerically using the method of splitting according to physical processes. Fields of temperature, velocity, component mass fractions, and volume fractions of phases were obtained numerically. It allows investigating dynamics of forest fire initiation under influence of various external …

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