Digital Commons Network^™

Modeling For Uncertainty Assessment In Human Health Risk Quantification: A Fuzzy Based Approach, Abdullah Mofarrah, Tahir Husain

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Health risk analysis to the contaminated water involves the use of mechanisticmodels that include many uncertain and variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties ofrisk analysis models are treated using statistical theories considering the randomness in datadistribution. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due torandomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce orincomplete data, measurement error or subjective interpretation of available information.These kinds of uncertainties cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. This paper usesfuzzy set theory (FST) together with probability theory (PT) to incorporate uncertaintiesinto risk analysis model. Based on the form of …

Modelling Human Health By Levels Of Biological Organization, Wilfred R. Cuff, Clifford Clark, Paulette Richard, Venkata R S K Duvvuri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The hierarchy of levels in the organization of matter, or the “hierarchy of life”, is a fundamentalconcept in biology, and biologists are used to thinking about their work asbeing at a particular level. Yet medicine, in both research and application, operatessomewhat independently of this concept, working almost exclusively at levels at or belowthe individual. Through the relatively-recent expansion of epidemiology, medicinedoes reach up to the level of the population - but medicine at higher levels of biologicalorganization remains under-developed. In this paper we review the biological idea ofhierarchy of life and explore what medical research and practice might look like …

User Interaction During The Development Of The Waikato Integrated Scenario Explorer, Hedwig Van Delden, Derek Phyn, Tony Fenton, Beat Huser, Daniel T. Rutledge, Liz Wedderburn

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The importance of user interaction for the design and development of Decision Support Systems is widely accepted in literature. How this interaction could best take place is however not yet common knowledge and examples of user involvement in the development of Decision Support Systems targeted at environmental policy and sustainable development are scarce. This paper provides a practical example of user involvement during the design, development and implementation of WISE, an Integrated Spatial Decision Support System for planning and policy support for the Waikato region in New Zealand. Focus will be on the process of user involvement during various development …

Aquisys – A Computer System To Support Good Practices Of Management For Brazilian Tilapiculture, Maria Conceição Peres Young Pessoa, Ana Flávia Rodrigues Seixas, Marcos Eliseu Losekann, Julio Ferraz De Queiroz, Mariana Silveira Guerra Moura|E Silva, Carlos Pazzianotto

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Brazilian psiculture has been increasing about 30% per year, having as main factors its profitability and source of quality protein. Its strong interaction with water resources and its interference on the biodiversity turns it both potentially exposed to, as well as, source of negative environmental impacts, requiring the adoption of less impactant management practices. The producer needs information on these practices and computer tools that allow access to them in a single repository could motivate the fast incorporation of these activities to the property. Despite of African origin, the tilapiculture is nowadays present at a large part of Brazilian territory, …

A Model-Based Quantitative Assessment Of Ecosystem Services In The Scenarios Of Environmental Management, Peter A. Khaiter, Marina G. Erechtchoukova

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

It is well recognized that ecological systems generate a spectrum of diverse benefits that are vital to humankind. Sustainable environmental management requires an adequate consideration of ecosystem goods and services. The problem, however, is that many of the ecological and social amenities are not currently incorporated into the decision-making process. A fundamental issue is getting at the quantitative characteristics of the ecosystem services. Publications on this matter note that simulation models of the phenomena in question have to be used for this purpose. In fact, a whole family of simulation models is required. Such models should represent the main components …

Choosing The Right Data Mining Technique: Classification Of Methods And Intelligent Recommendation, Karina Gibert, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Víctor Codina

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

One of the most difficult tasks in the whole KDD process is to choose the right data mining technique, as the commercial software tools provide more and more possibilities together and the decision requires more and more expertise on the methodological point of view. Indeed, there are a lot of data mining techniques available for an environmental scientist wishing to discover some model from her/his data. This diversity can cause some troubles to the scientist who often have not a clear idea of what are the available methods, and moreover, use to have doubts about the most suitable method to …

Evaluation Of Odour Impact From A Landfill Area And A Waste Treatment Facility Through The Application Of Two Approaches Of A Gaussian Dispersion Model, Y. Ubeda, M. Ferrer, E. Sanchis, S. Calvet, J. Nicolas, P. A. López

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Odour emission from landfill areas has a high potential to cause significantannoyance to people living in their surroundings. In order to avoid odour nuisance, it iscrucial to select the best location in the project phase of these facilities. In the present work,two approaches of the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model were employed to predictodour impact from a projected landfill area and a waste treatment facility. The firstapproach was a simplified bi-Gaussian Atmospheric Dispersion model developed by theauthors. Calculated odour concentrations were represented using GIS tools (Esri®ArcMapTM software). Regarding the second approach, a commercial bi-GaussianAtmospheric Dispersion one was used. The odour impact …

Integrated Modeling For Source Characterization Of Pathogenic Contamination In Watersheds, Michael E. Tryby, S. Thomas Purucker, Gene Whelan

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The US EPA’s regulatory framework for recreational waters has protected public health for decades. Pathogenic contamination of these waters, however, remains a frequent cause of impairment. Integrated modeling is being leveraged to advance the agency’s understanding of pathogen fate and transport processes in watersheds and improve its ability to predict the consequences of exposure. This paper describes integrated modeling research focusing on source characterization techniques for pathogen transport scenarios in watersheds. Source characterization is a hidden requirement of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, a method for estimating infection risks being evaluated across several programs within the EPA. A hybrid source characterization …

An Agent Based Model Of Climate Change And Conflict Among Pastoralists In East Africa, Atesmachew B. Hailegiorgis, William G. Kennedy, Mark Rouleau, Jeffrey K. Bassett, Mark Coletti, Gabriel C. Balan, Tim Gulden

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present an agent-based model of human-environment interaction and conflict in East Africa using the MASON agent-based simulation environment. Our model focuses on the complex interaction of pastoral groups with their environment and other emerging external actors. Our model supports the observation that increased seasonal rainfall variability and droughts create tremendous stress on pastoralists groups and challenges their long-term resilience and adaptive response mechanisms.

Modeling The Adaptation Of Land-Use Decisions To Landscape Changes Using An Agent-Based System: A Case Study In A Mountainous Catchment In Central Vietnam, Quang Bao Le, Roman Seidl, Roland W. Scholz

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A key challenge of land-use modeling for supporting sustainable land management is to understand how environmental feedbacks emerged from land-use actions can reshape land-use decisions in the long-term. To investigate that issue, we use an agentbased land-use change model (LUDAS) developed by Le et al. [2008] based on a case study that was carried out in Hongha watershed (Vietnam). In LUDAS, goal-directed landuse decisions by household agents are explicitly modeled (i.e. agents calculate utilities for all land-use and location alternatives and likely select the alternative with highest utility). The model is run for two mechanisms of adaptation in land-use decisions …

Scenarios To Investigate The Effect Of Wetland Position In A Watershed On Nutrient Loadings, S. J. Melles, G. Benoy, B. Booty, Luis F. León, J. Vanrobaeys, I. Wong

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Lake Winnipeg is Canada’s 6th largest freshwater lake and is subject to an increasing rate of eutrophication as a result of nonpoint source pollution from numerous sources including farms and municipal wastewaters. We examine scenarios designed to compare the relative effects of wetland restoration and position on modelled nutrient loadings to Lake Winnipeg from a pilot watershed in the Lake’s Basin, the La Salle River watershed. Scenarios were examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a well-known watershed scale hydrologic model designed to assess non-point source pollution loadings to contributing streams across a wide range of …

A Conservation Ontology And Knowledge Base To Support Delivery Of Technical Assistance To Agricultural Producers In The United States, Jack R. Carlson, David B. Butler, Olaf David, Ken W. Rojas, James C. Ascough Ii, George Leavesley, Wendall R. Oaks, Lane C. Price, L.R. Ahuja

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Information systems supporting the delivery of conservation technical assistance by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to agricultural producers on working lands have become increasingly complex over the past 25 years. They are constrained by inconsistent coordination of domain knowledge across databases, business applications, science models, and other repositories. The extent to which they interoperate is due to implicit understanding of core concepts across business interests. Domain knowledge has been embedded in policy and technical documents for more than 60 years, and with the advent of computing systems, some transformed into metadata of entity-relationship models and data dictionaries. However, …

Present Situation Of The Zooplankton Of The Azerbaijani Sector Caspian Sea, A. G. Jalilov

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the present work the basic attention is given to research of zooplankton which within several years (1999-2006) was under the strongest influence Mnemiopsis leidyi. Last from spontaneous invasion found out on Caspian Sea was Mnemiopsis leidyi. For two (1999 - 2000) year this kind completely "occupied" Average, Southern and a part of Northern Caspian Sea therefore has suffered zooplankton. Have sharply decreased a biodiversity of zooplankton and weight characteristics. The number of kinds of zooplankton was considerably reduced. In 2000 on the average Caspian sea it was totaled 36, in Southern-24 kinds of zooplankton, and in 2001 the qualitative …

A Review Of User Interface Conventions In Web Applications For Climate Change Information, Markus Wrobel, Luis Costa, Tabea Lissner, Marta Moneo Laín, Tobias Weib, Jürgen Kropp

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Web applications are increasingly applied to provide access to the complex field of climate change related information. We review a sample of 32 applications that utilize maps in the context of web enabled access to climate change information in order to examine if the emergence of UI conventions across applications can be observed.

I Roll The Burthen And Responsibility Of Leading This Church Off From My Shoulders On To Yours: The 1844/1845 Declaration Of The Quorum Of The Twelve Regarding Apostolic Succession, Alexander L. Baugh

BYU Studies

The document presented and discussed in this paper is one of the most important early Latter-day Saint manuscripts associated with both the final months of Joseph Smith's life and the postmartyrdom (or apostolic) interregnum period. Written in late 1844 or early 1845, the document appears to have been drafted for possible use as an official statement by the Twelve concerning Joseph Smith's "last charge" to them, given at a special meeting held in late March 1844, three months before his death. On this occasion, the Prophet conferred upon the Twelve the priesthood keys and authority necessary to lead the Church …

Theology And Ecology: Religious Belief And Environmental Stewardship, Gary C. Bryner

BYU Studies

This article explores the potential role religious belief might play in U.S. environmental policy making. Careful environmental stewardship holds a prominent place in Mormon theology as it does among other faiths. It is helpful to know how religious groups are engaged in environmental policy making, the strengths and limitations of these efforts, and the prospects for religious-based contributions to environmental protection policies. The experience of other believers illuminates some of the choices members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints face when engaging in public debates over environmental policy.

Creativity In The Cosmic Context: Our Challenges And Opportunities, Jerry L. Jaccard, Rita R. Wright, Jon D. Green

BYU Studies

Eric d'Evegnee tells of the angst he experienced when his son expected his help in crafting a wooden car for the Cub Scout pinewood derby, his prowess as a father on the line. In the race the car wobbled across the finish line last, causing grief and feelings of betrayal for the young son. He contrasts himself with King Lear, who refused to acknowledge his failings until the very end, and d'Evegnee sees himself at peace with his children.

The authors look at creativity through the teachings of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, specifically that all people …

End Matter, Religious Educator

Religious Educator: Perspectives on the Restored Gospel

No abstract provided.

Theoretical Environmental Disciplines In Support Of Sustainable Chemistry, Kristina Voigt, Hagen Scherb, Rainer Brüggemann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

It has been evident for decades that environmental chemicals pose an enormousrisk to the environment as well as to humans. However, this important topic is stillunderestimated in every part of society. The effects of environmental contaminants onhealth are a major concern because exposure is associated with a number of diseases,including cancer, diabetes, congenital malformations and infertility. Sustainable Chemistryis a chemical philosophy encouraging the design of products and processes that reduce oreliminate the use and generation of hazardous substances. Sustainability and sustainabledevelopment are effectively ethical concepts, expressing desirable outcomes fromeconomic and social decisions. The important matter of principle, therefore, becomes avictim …

Study On The Effect Of Biogas Project On The Development Of Low-Carbon Circular Economy —A Case Study Of Beilangzhong Eco-Village, N. Duana, C. Lina, X. D. Liu, Y. Wang, X. J. Zhang, Y. Hou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

With Beilangzhong eco-village as an example, the effects of the biogas project on thereduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and its economic effects are analyzed. The resultsshow that 1833.45t GHG (CO2 equivalent) was reduced, and an income of 1,117,000 Yuan (RMB),a net income of 958,500 Yuan (RMB), was gained by biogas sales, alternative energy,comprehensive utilization of anaerobic fermentation residues and the reduction of GHG emission,so the biogas project can greatly promote the establishment of low-carbon circular economy modeand sustainable development of ecological agriculture in Beilangzhong eco-village.

Co2 Embodied In China's Foreign Trade 2007 With Global Policy Implications, Lei Liu, Xiaoming Ma

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This article estimated the carbon emissions embodied in China's foreign trade in2007 with an input-output method. The results showed that China was a net exporter of atleast 484.18MT carbon emissions in 2007, which accounted for 8.59% of total on aproduction basis. In total emissions, imported carbon accounted for 21.97% while exportedcarbon occupied 30.56%. In terms of sectors, Manufacture of Textile was the biggest netexporter, which was followed by Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals, Manufacture ofMetal Products, and so on. In terms of trading partners, Hong Kong was the biggestrecipient of exported emissions of mainland China, which was followed by …

Calibrating Environmental Models Using Paramesh, Daniel Princz, L. Shawn Matott

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

ParaMESH (Parameter management for Models of Environmental Systems andHydrology) is a graphical interface for advanced parameter management. Originally developedto be compatible with selected hydrologic and climatologic models, recent enhancementssupport any environmental model or evaluation tool that uses text-based input-output files.ParaMESH provides an intuitive graphical environment in which to configure arbitrary models.Additional features include parameter verification and execution management. To demonstrateParaMESH as a flexible tool-independent graphical interface, a new extension was developedwhich links ParaMESH with OSTRICH (Optimization Software Tool for Research InComputational Heuristics), a model-independent optimization toolkit. The linkage provides aconvenient user interface for configuring and executing a model calibration exercise. …

Agent Based Modelling Of Caribou Environmental Interactions In The Canadian Arctic, Glen Lesins, Kaz Higuchi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agent or individual based modelling (IBM) is recognized as an important tool in biological modelling for simulating animal behaviour and interactions with the environment at the level of the individual while maintaining a collective perspective. The method allows rules to be programmed for the interactions between like and unlike species, responses to geographic factors and impacts from human activities. By emphasizing the development of appropriate rules for the individual, one can avoid imposing ad hoc assumptions concerning the population as a whole and instead allow emergent phenomena to unfold at the larger scale. Here we report on preliminary results using …

A Framework For Integrated Modeling Using A Knowledge-Driven Approach, Jean-Pierre Müller

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In this paper, we argue that integrated modeling is about integrating disciplinary discourses reflecting various points of view on a given system rather than only setting up a very complex model from the start, or putting together independently designed models . In our approach, we propose an integrated modeling environment, based on ontologies, to represent and articulate the various points of view. Accordingly the proposed framework, called MIMOSA, is based on two components: 1) a declarative component based on ontologies to describe the concepts, the modeled system using the described concepts, and its dynamics using an extensible set of formalisms, …

Study On The Effect Of Biogas Project On The Development Of Low-Carbon Circular Economy —A Case Study Of Beilangzhong Eco-Village, N. Duana, C. Lina, X. D. Liu, Y. Wang, X. J. Zhang, Y. Hou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

With Beilangzhong eco-village as an example, the effects of the biogas project on thereduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and its economic effects are analyzed. The resultsshow that 1833.45t GHG (CO2 equivalent) was reduced, and an income of 1,117,000 Yuan (RMB),a net income of 958,500 Yuan (RMB), was gained by biogas sales, alternative energy,comprehensive utilization of anaerobic fermentation residues and the reduction of GHG emission,so the biogas project can greatly promote the establishment of low-carbon circular economy modeand sustainable development of ecological agriculture in Beilangzhong eco-village.

Evaluation Of The Changed Properties Of Aquatic Animals After Dam Construction Using Ecological Network Analysis, Chen Shaoqing, Liao Xueqin, Yang Jin, Chen Bin

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Dam construction results in variations of hydrology, river morphology and habitat and thebiota associated with the reservoir change significantly compared to the assemblage before damconstruction in order to match these changed environmental conditions. Some attempts so far havebeen made to ascertain the changed properties of aquatilia due to dam construction. Most of them,however, were focused on perturbances to single factors, such as rearing habitats, reproduction andmigration routes, etc. Few have been done on the performance of aquatilia from the whole-ecosystemperspective. Herein, we evaluate the structural properties of aquatic animals and their complexecological relationships within the ecosystem before and after dam …

Risk Management In An Uncertain Environment - A Study From Semi-Arid Grazing Systems, O. Jakoby, M. F. Quaas, Birgit Müller, Karin Frank

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Since livestock grazing is the most important type of land-use in arid and semi-arid rangelands with uncertain and highly variable climatic conditions, well adapted grazing strategies are crucial for effective risk management. However, local environmental characteristics and individual needs and perception lead to a broad range of different management forms used in practice. In this paper we (i) analyse how uncertain climate conditions and the individual farmer’s characteristics like risk aversion, economic constraints and effort cost affect the choice of management, (ii) evaluate the viability of different management options, and in particular (iii) their robustness under climate variability. We use …

Bio-Economic Effects Of Water Shortages On Shellfish Farming. An Integrated Dynamic Modelling Approach, J. A. Pérez Agúndez, Johanna Ballé-Béganton, Rémi Mongruel, Cédric Bacher, O. Le Moine, P. Soletchnik, S. Robert, S. Guesdon

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The land-sea interfaces are geographical areas rich in ecosystemic services. However, the increase of anthropogenic pressures is frequently the factor explaining environmental damages phenomena and generating many use conflicts. The integrated coastal zones management has been acknowledged by the different environment international conferences as a sustainability framework. Integration is the key concept on which must be based the reformulation of scientific knowledge required for supporting sustainable governance. That directly questions on the pertinent methods and tools to build for contributing to those decision making processes. This paper explores these topics by focusing on the example of the fresh water share …

Mirana: A Socio-Ecological Model For Assessing Sustainability Of Community-Based Regulations, Sigrid Aubert, Jean-Pierre Müller, Julliard Ralihalizara

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Malagasy local communities managing forest resources have difficulties in assessing the impacts of the management plans they decide upon. To help them, we have designed an integrated model with the ecological processes, the various regulations (zoning, quota, etc..) and the resulting inhabitants behavior in order to explore the impacts of scenarios. The model MIRANA has been designed using the MIMOSA framework in which one must design a conceptual model using ontologies, annotate the conceptual model with the necessary processes, and design a concrete model from which to generate the simulation model. In MIRANA, the conceptual model is made of …

Using An Integrated, Multi-Disciplinary Framework To Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments, Gene Whelan, Michael E. Tryby, Mitchell A. Pelton, Jeffery A. Soller, Karl J. Castleton

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a number of modeling analyses can be supported and reproduced. FRAMES is a Windows-based system that can incorporate and communicate with a array of software models and databases and that is uniquely designed to allow users, by themselves, to visualize the problem and add and link disparate models – even older legacy models – and databases to the system. Quantitative Microbial …